Investors might want to bet on Century Aluminum (CENX) , as earnings estimates for this company have been showing solid improvement lately. The stock has already gained solid short-term price momentum, and this trend might continue with its still improving earnings outlook.The rising trend in estimate revisions, which is a result of growing analyst optimism on the earnings prospects of this aluminum producer, should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation b ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying sustainable trends in stock prices for short-term investing, highlighting Century Aluminum (CENX) as a strong candidate for trend investors due to its significant price increase and positive fundamentals [1][4][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Century Aluminum (CENX) has experienced a solid price increase of 54.3% over the past 12 weeks, indicating strong investor interest [4]. - The stock has also seen a price increase of 12.2% over the last four weeks, suggesting that the upward trend is still intact [5]. - CENX is currently trading at 105.7% of its 52-week high-low range, indicating a potential breakout [5]. Group 2: Fundamental Strength - CENX holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises [6]. - The stock has an Average Broker Recommendation of 1 (Strong Buy), reflecting high optimism from the brokerage community regarding its near-term price performance [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The "Recent Price Strength" screen is a useful tool for investors looking to identify stocks with strong upward trends supported by solid fundamentals [3]. - In addition to CENX, there are other stocks that meet the criteria of the "Recent Price Strength" screen, providing additional investment opportunities [8].

Summary of Aluminum Industry Research Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels from September 4th to 10th, 2025. Market expectations for demand recovery are described as cautious [1] Key Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 851,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 2% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Aluminum billet production was 361kt, also flat WoW, with a 6% increase YoY [2] - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production reached 31.1 million tons (mnt), up 2.9% YoY, while aluminum billet production totaled 12.6mnt, up 5.7% YoY [2] Inventory Insights - As of September 11, 2025, total aluminum ingot and billet inventory was 914kt, down 1% WoW and 5% YoY [3] - Social inventory was 759kt, down 1% WoW and 11% YoY, while producers' inventory was 155kt, down 2% WoW but up 43% YoY [3] - For aluminum ingots, total inventory was 686kt, down 1% WoW and 11% YoY, while aluminum billets had an inventory of 228kt, down 2% WoW but up 21% YoY [3] Apparent Consumption Trends - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 895kt during the week, up 3% WoW but down 1% YoY [4] - Apparent consumption of aluminum ingots was 911kt, up 2% WoW but down 2% YoY, while aluminum billets saw consumption of 345kt, up 3% WoW and up 8% YoY [4] - YTD apparent consumption reached 32.1mnt, up 4.6% YoY, with aluminum ingots and billets showing increases of 4.1% and 7.3% YoY, respectively [4] Key Takeaways - The report emphasizes that aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is more representative for calculating overall aluminum demand [5] - Total aluminum inventory decreased WoW, with levels lower than the same period in 2021-22 and 2024, but higher than in 2023 on a lunar calendar basis [5] - Apparent consumption levels were higher than the same period in 2022-24 on a lunar calendar [7] Conclusion - The aluminum industry in China is experiencing cautious demand recovery, with production and consumption showing modest growth. Inventory levels are fluctuating, indicating a complex market environment that requires close monitoring for potential investment opportunities and risks.

Aluminum and Alumina Market Update - The price of alumina has decreased from the highs at the end of 2024 due to resolved supply disruptions, stabilizing around $360 to $370 [3] - China has taken offline approximately 7 million to 10 million annual capacity in the second quarter, contributing to price stabilization [3] - The alumina market is expected to be in surplus for the second half of the year and into 2026, with new capacity coming online from Indonesia and China [3] - Delays in Indonesian smelting capacity are anticipated, which may further contribute to the surplus in the alumina market [3]

Group 1 - The alumina market has seen a decrease in prices from the highs at the end of 2024 due to resolved supply disruptions, stabilizing around $360 to $370 [3] - The alumina market is expected to be in surplus for the second half of the year and into 2026, with new capacities coming online from Indonesia and China [3] - Indonesian smelting capacity delays are anticipated, which may contribute to a greater surplus in the alumina market [3] Group 2 - An update on the aluminum market was mentioned, but specific details were not provided in the available content [4]

Summary of Alcoa Corporation Conference Call Industry Overview - The aluminum market has seen a decline in prices from the highs at the end of 2024 due to resolved supply disruptions, with prices stabilizing around $360 to $370 per metric ton [4] - The aluminum market is expected to be in surplus for the second half of the year and into 2026, with additional capacity coming online from Indonesia and China [4] - North America and Europe are experiencing deficits in aluminum supply, while China continues to import metal from other regions [6] Company-Specific Insights - Alcoa's North American order book remains strong, particularly in the packaging and electrical sectors, despite challenges in the foundry segment [5] - Aluminum shipments for the third quarter are projected to be 15,000 metric tons lower than anticipated due to timing issues, but annual guidance remains unchanged [7] - The company expects a third-quarter tax expense of $60 to $70 million, an increase of $10 million from prior estimates due to higher projected annual earnings [8] Tariff and Regulatory Discussions - Alcoa is engaged in ongoing discussions with the U.S. and Canadian governments regarding Section 232 tariffs, with recent meetings described as constructive [11] - The company is advocating for tariff relief, as it currently pays over $800 million in tariffs, which significantly impacts its financials [13] Operational Updates - The San Ciprián smelter restart is progressing well, but full capacity is now expected by mid-2026 due to delays from a power outage [19] - Discussions with the Spanish government focus on improving the power grid's resiliency, as the company faces energy challenges in Spain [19] - Alcoa is progressing with mine approvals in Western Australia, with expectations for a recommendation from the EPA by mid-2026 [27] Financial Strategy and Capital Allocation - Alcoa aims to reduce net debt below $1.5 billion, currently at $1.7 billion, while also managing high adjusted debt of approximately $3.2 billion [36] - The company is exploring monetization opportunities for its Ma'aden shares and idle sites, which could enhance cash flow generation [38] - Alcoa has $500 million remaining on its share buyback authorization and is committed to maintaining its dividend through market cycles [41] Future Outlook - The company is focused on strategic opportunities, particularly in recycling, to align with customer demand for higher recycled content [43] - An investor day is scheduled for October 30, where Alcoa will share updates on markets, operations, strategies, and capital allocation [46] Additional Considerations - The foundry segment remains a weak point for Alcoa, with challenges from imported finished wheels not subject to tariffs [5] - The company is experiencing uncertainty in customer demand due to tariff-related pricing fluctuations, leading to low inventory levels [17] - Alcoa is committed to addressing environmental concerns related to mining operations, particularly regarding water safety [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The far - worse - than - expected US August non - farm payroll data makes a September interest rate cut almost certain, but the subsequent interest rate cut debate is more complex. The shift from full - time to part - time jobs indicates economic weakness [8][22]. - For the overall market, although the regulatory authorities have taken actions to cool down, the core drivers of the upward trend have not changed substantially, so the market is unlikely to have a trend - like callback. It is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend later [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Economy and Interest Rate Expectations - US August non - farm employment increased by 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%, a nearly four - year high. The June employment data was revised down to negative growth, the first since 2020. The market expects a September interest rate cut, and there are debates about the magnitude and subsequent cuts [7][8][22]. 3.2 Sector - specific Analysis 3.2.1 Index Futures - The upward logic is gradually shifting to earnings. It is recommended to pay attention with a high attention index [9]. 3.2.2 Glass - Short - term rebound is difficult to continue, and it is more likely to have a weak and volatile market. The core pressure comes from the weak real estate background and the high premium of the futures main contract over the spot. It is a volatile market in the medium - term, and caution is needed at low levels [12]. 3.2.3 Natural Rubber - With macro and fundamental support, the market's bullish sentiment is rising. Overseas raw material prices are high, domestic inventory is slightly decreasing, and the price is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to arrival and inventory reduction [14]. 3.2.4 Copper - There is no trend - like opportunity, and the price will maintain a volatile trend. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to be under pressure. The trading strategy is to buy at low prices [15][27]. 3.2.5 Other Commodities - Each commodity has different trends. For example, gold shows an upward trend due to the non - farm data; zinc, tin, etc. are in a range - bound state; aluminum needs to pay attention to the de - stocking inflection point; etc. Specific trends can be found in the corresponding commodity analysis parts [18][21][27].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call was on the lithium and aluminum value chains within the China Materials sector, specifically during the "Anti-Involution Trip" [1] Lithium Sector Insights - Yongxing confirmed that a revised mineral reserves report will be submitted by September 30, as required by the local government. The previous report was based on a 0.2% Li2O cutoff grade, aligning with current standards [2] - Management anticipates minimal impact on lithium carbonate production costs, estimating an increase of several hundred RMB per ton if the mineral classification changes to lithium [2] - There is a potential risk of temporary shutdowns for other Yichun lepidolite mines due to mining license issues, with a possibility of a 1-2 year delay in reclassification processes [3] Aluminum Sector Insights - Chalco projects a ~3% increase in China's total aluminum demand for 2025, with potential upward revisions due to stronger-than-expected demand in July and August. Demand is particularly robust in the wire, automotive, and energy storage markets [4] - The long-term growth forecast for aluminum demand is expected to decline slightly to 1.5-2% annually in the domestic market and 1-1.5% globally [4] - The Chinese government is considering controlling alumina capacity, which may support prices, although no specific measures have been announced yet [5] - Limited overseas aluminum supply increases are anticipated in the next three years due to underdeveloped industry environments and infrastructure in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [6] Additional Considerations - The local government is expected to standardize mineral type classifications and provide a grace period for compliance, reducing the likelihood of production curbs or suspensions [2] - Both Yongxing and another converter associated with the suspended Jianxiawo mine have approximately two weeks of lepidolite inventory, indicating a short-term buffer against supply disruptions [2] Conclusion - The conference highlighted the dynamics of the lithium and aluminum markets in China, with a focus on regulatory impacts, demand forecasts, and potential supply constraints. The insights provided are crucial for understanding the investment landscape in these sectors.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call primarily focused on the **steel industry** in **Tangshan, China** as part of an "anti-involution trip" conducted by Morgan Stanley [1][7]. Key Points and Arguments Demand and Supply Dynamics - **Demand Growth**: Year-to-date (YTD) steel demand is reported to be growing at **low single digits**, contrary to the previous industry consensus which anticipated a **1.5% year-over-year decline**. However, real domestic demand is likely experiencing **small negative growth** [2][7]. - **Export Strength**: There is a notable strength in **direct, indirect, and finished goods exports**, which is contributing positively to the overall demand despite domestic challenges [2][7]. Production Cuts and Supply Reform - **Production Cuts**: A production cut order has been issued by Beijing but has not yet been enforced in Tangshan. Some mills believe that due to positive margins, there is no immediate need for cuts, while others anticipate cuts may be necessary in **Q4** [3][7]. - **Historical Context**: The situation is reminiscent of the **2015/16 supply reform** when Tangshan mills were initially skeptical about production cuts [3][7]. - **Regional Variations**: Regions like **Shandong, Jiangsu, and Liaoning** are actively cutting production due to worse supply-demand conditions, while Tangshan mills are agreeing to control production to maintain positive margins [3][7]. Inventory and Market Conditions - **High Inventory Levels**: Steel inventory in Tangshan remains high, primarily due to a significant portion being locked in the futures market. This inventory may be released when market prices become favorable [4][7]. Iron Ore Outlook - **Positive Iron Ore View**: Steel mills express confidence in near-term iron ore prices, projecting a range of **US$90-95 per ton** for 2026. This optimism is supported by high molten iron production and limited supply from **Simandou** [5][7]. Aluminum Capacity Expansion - **New Aluminum Capacity in Angola**: A new aluminum capacity of **120kt** is expected to commence operations by the end of **2025**, with full ramp-up anticipated in **Q1 2026**. The power supply contract secured at a lower tariff significantly reduces production costs compared to domestic markets [6][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the steel industry appears cautiously optimistic, with a focus on managing production levels to sustain profitability amidst fluctuating demand and inventory challenges [2][3][4]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The insights gathered from the call suggest potential investment opportunities in companies that are well-positioned to navigate the current market dynamics, particularly those involved in iron ore and aluminum production [5][6]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and outlook of the steel and aluminum industries in China.

Core Points - The Supreme Court's potential ruling on President Trump's tariffs could significantly impact economic forecasts and business planning, particularly if the tariffs are deemed unconstitutional [1][2] - Tariff uncertainty has led to a slowdown in hiring and capital spending across various sectors, with businesses hesitant to commit due to the unpredictable tariff landscape [3] - New tariffs can still be imposed under national security laws, which are not affected by the current ruling, potentially expanding tariffs on industries like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [4] Economic Impact - If the challenged tariffs remain in place, consumer prices could rise by approximately 1%, leading to reduced spending, although this may not trigger a recession [5] - The global economy is undergoing structural changes as businesses adapt to tariff uncertainties, with a shift towards shorter supply chains and diversified sourcing strategies [6][7] - These adjustments may lead to a slight increase in production costs, impacting consumer prices but not significantly harming the overall economy [10] Business Strategies - Companies are increasingly sourcing materials locally or diversifying their supply chains to mitigate risks associated with tariffs [7][9] - The transition to more localized production and diversified sourcing will take time, but it is expected to gradually reshape global production dynamics [11] - The outcome of the Supreme Court decision will have varying effects on specific companies, necessitating close monitoring by affected business leaders [12]