Core Viewpoint - Commodities are expected to be the leading investment opportunity in 2026, driven by strong economic growth, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and potentially higher inflation [1][2][7] Group 1: Investment Performance - Commodities are projected to deliver strong returns in 2025, particularly due to the demand from the AI data center boom [3] - The Vanguard Commodity Strategy Fund has increased by 17% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 [3] - The industrial sector, which is heavily weighted in commodities, has also risen by 17% since January, while utilities and energy sectors have increased by 15% and 7%, respectively [3] Group 2: Economic Factors Supporting Commodities - Trump's economic policies are anticipated to further stimulate economic growth, benefiting commodities investments [4] - The growing appeal of commodities over traditional safe-haven investments like bonds is noted, as excess fiscal spending has allowed commodities to outperform [4] - Globalization is becoming more fragmented due to geopolitical conflicts and supply chain issues, which is expected to boost demand for commodities [5] Group 3: Inflation Impact - Higher inflation expectations are likely to drive up prices for certain commodities, such as gold, which has risen by 60% this year and is on track for its best performance since the 1970s [6]

Market Analysis - The October SPY high of 689.70 is expected to be reached, as markets typically do not end on a high volume high, indicating a test that will determine the next market move [1] - A positive divergence is observed between the SPX and SPX/VIX ratio, with the SPX/VIX ratio making a higher high while the SPX has not [1] SPX and SPX/VIX Ratio Insights - The SPX/VIX ratio usually leads the SPX, suggesting that the SPX will trade to a higher high [2] - Historical data shows instances where the SPX made higher highs while the SPX/VIX did not, and vice versa, indicating potential future movements [2] Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) Monitoring - The ZBT is being monitored for a possible bullish signal, requiring the 10-day average of the NYSE advancing/NYSE Total to reach .40 or lower and then rally to .60 or higher within ten days [3] - The ZBT closed at .38 on November 20 and at .45 on November 21, initiating the countdown, with a target of .60 by December 5 [3] - As of the latest data, the ZBT closed at .55, just .05 shy of the target, with two trading days remaining [3] GSG Commodity Index Outlook - The GSG Commodity Index has rallied 300% from the COVID 2020 low to mid-2022, followed by a narrow trading range that retraced 38.2% of the rally, indicating a potential consolidation phase [4] - Increased volume over the last three months suggests a developing "sign of strength" and a nearing breakout for the GSG index, which includes grains, metals, and energy [4] - The outlook for gold and silver is positive, although higher inflation is anticipated [4]

分组1 - The company Lightbridge (LTBR) is still in the early research stage, but its financials and project development are showing improvement [1] - The investment strategy focuses on uncovering high-upside opportunities in overlooked sectors, particularly small-caps, energy, and commodities [1] - The analysis employs the CAN SLIM framework, emphasizing fundamental momentum indicators such as EPS, ROE, and revenue [1] 分组2 - The analyst utilizes econometric tools like GARCH and Granger causality to assess risk and volatility [1] - The approach involves building conviction across technicals, fundamentals, and catalysts rather than relying on a single signal [1] - The analyst has been managing personal capital since 2020 and advising under MiFID II, indicating a level of professional experience and regulatory compliance [1]

Chile’s state copper supplier Codelco signed an agreement with Swiss commodities giant Glencore to design and possibly develop and operate a new smelter in northern Chile. https://t.co/O4dwsH4GJY ...

Group 1: Glencore's Copper Business Expansion - Glencore aims to exceed 1 million tonnes of annual base copper production by the end of 2028, with a target of approximately 1.6 million tonnes by 2035 [2][9] - The company plans to restart the Alumbrera copper mine in Argentina in Q4 2026, with first production expected shortly thereafter [2][9] - Glencore anticipates a 4% annual compound growth rate in copper equivalent production from 2026 to 2029 [2][9] Group 2: Macy's Q3 Performance - Macy's reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.09, significantly beating the estimated loss of $0.14 [3][9] - Total revenue reached $4.91 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $4.75 billion, driven by net sales of $4.71 billion [3][9] - Despite strong Q3 results, Macy's provided a cautious full-year outlook, projecting adjusted EPS between $2.00 and $2.20, below the estimated $2.37 [3][9] Group 3: Dollar Tree's Q3 Earnings - Dollar Tree reported adjusted EPS of $1.21, outperforming the $1.07 estimate, on revenue of $4.75 billion, slightly above the forecast of $4.7 billion [4][9] - The company expects full-year net sales between $19.35 billion and $19.45 billion and adjusted EPS in the range of $5.60 to $5.80 [4][9] - Dollar Tree's Q4 outlook includes comparable store net sales growth of 4.0% to 6.0% and adjusted EPS from continuing operations of $2.40 to $2.60 [4][9] Group 4: US Mortgage Market Update - The US Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 1.4% decrease in mortgage applications week-over-week as of November 28 [5][9] - The 30-year mortgage rate decreased slightly to 6.32% from the previous 6.40% [5][9] Group 5: National Bank of Canada Q4 Earnings - National Bank of Canada announced adjusted EPS of C$2.82, surpassing the estimated C$2.63 [6] - The bank reported adjusted revenue of C$3.70 billion, exceeding the C$3.45 billion estimate [6] - The quarterly dividend was raised by C$0.06 to C$1.24 per share [6]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced an upward trend, with the Dow Jones increasing by over 250 points, closing up 0.60% at 47,709.91, while the NASDAQ rose 0.36% to 23,297.13 and the S&P 500 gained 0.38% to 6,838.77 [1] - Energy shares saw a notable increase of 1.6%, while health care stocks declined by 0.6% on the same day [1] Company Earnings - Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:CHA) reported a 7% increase in shares after releasing its third-quarter earnings, with non-GAAP net income decreasing to RMB502.8 million ($70.6 million) from RMB646.6 million year-over-year, and net revenues falling to RMB3,208.3 million ($450.7 million) from RMB3,541.2 million [2] Commodity Prices - In commodity markets, oil prices rose by 1% to $59.26, gold increased by 0.8% to $4,237.60, silver surged by 4.9% to $56.210, and copper climbed 1.8% to $5.2870 [5] European Markets - European shares showed positive movement, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising by 0.26%, Spain's IBEX 35 Index up 0.12%, London's FTSE 100 increasing by 0.31%, Germany's DAX 40 gaining 0.31%, and France's CAC 40 rising by 0.29% [6] Asian Markets - Asian markets closed mixed, with Japan's Nikkei gaining 0.17%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng falling 0.34%, China's Shanghai Composite rising 0.34%, and India's BSE Sensex decreasing by 0.02% [7] Notable Stock Movements - DeFi Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:DEFT) shares surged 11% to $1.5300 following the approval of QCAD as Canada's first compliant CAD stablecoin [8] - Pasithea Therapeutics Corp. (NASDAQ:KTTA) saw a significant increase of 61% to $1.7017 after announcing a $60 million public offering of common stock [8] - HeartBeam, Inc. (NASDAQ:BEAT) shares rose by 23% to $0.7452 after outlining its regulatory strategy post-FDA's NSE decision [8] - Rubico Inc. (NASDAQ:RUBI) shares dropped 25% to $0.1623 due to a reported reverse stock split [8] - Tilray Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:TLRY) shares fell 19% to $0.8310 following its announcement of a reverse stock split [8] - Rich Sparkle Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:ANPA) shares decreased by 34% to $17.53 after announcing plans to purchase up to $50 million in EDU tokens [8]

Core Insights - The US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) plans to invest $100 billion to support the Trump administration's strategy for achieving global energy dominance [1] - The investment aims to reduce the West's reliance on supplies from China and Russia, which is viewed as unfair [2] Investment Focus - The first tranche of investments will target Egypt, Pakistan, and Europe, including $4 billion in natural gas to Egypt and a $1.25 billion loan for the Reko Diq copper mine in Pakistan [3] - EXIM is finalizing several larger deals related to critical minerals, indicating readiness to engage in pacts with allies like Australia [4] Energy Security Initiatives - There is a heightened emphasis on energy security, with ongoing discussions about nuclear projects in southeast Europe involving US companies [5] - Last year, EXIM supported $1.6 billion in green energy projects, marking a 74% increase compared to 2023 [5] LNG Developments - EXIM has received requests for support in LNG from Europe, Africa, and Asia, with potential announcements of multibillion-dollar LNG supply deals forthcoming [6]

Trade Relations - China has cleared its first shipment of Argentinian soybean meal since approving such imports in 2019 [1] - This signifies the opening of a new trade channel between China and Argentina, the world's largest exporter of soybean meal [1]

Cocoa fell sharply in New York, headed for a third weekly loss, on the back of improved prospects for supplies from top producer Ivory Coast https://t.co/7cdjIVOEYD ...

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced an upward trend, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining over 400 points on Monday. The Dow increased by 0.17% to 47,068.14, the NASDAQ surged 1.86% to 23,433.12, and the S&P 500 rose 1.04% to 6,798.73 [1] - European shares also saw gains, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising 1.54%, Spain's IBEX 35 Index gaining 1.71%, London's FTSE 100 up 1.17%, Germany's DAX 40 increasing by 1.82%, and France's CAC 40 climbing 1.52% [6] Company Performance - Dole Plc (NYSE:DOLE) shares surged approximately 8% after reporting third-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of 16 cents per share, which missed analysts' forecasts of 17 cents and represented a 15.8% decline from 19 cents per share a year earlier. Revenue increased by 10.5% year over year to $2.28 billion, exceeding consensus expectations of $2.15 billion [2] - Galecto Inc (NASDAQ:GLTO) shares skyrocketed 294% to $19.51 following the announcement of the acquisition of Damora Therapeutics [8] - Movano Inc (NASDAQ:MOVE) shares surged 206% to $14.59 after announcing a merger agreement with Corvex [8] - Cogent Biosciences Inc (NASDAQ:COGT) shares rose 125% to $33.36 after its Phase 3 PEAK study showed a median progression-free survival of 16.5 months for bezuclastinib plus sunitinib, with plans to submit an NDA to the FDA for bezuclastinib in intolerant gastrointestinal stromal tumors [8] - Lazydays Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:GORV) shares dropped 40% to $0.97 after announcing plans to delist from the Nasdaq [8] - Motorcar Parts of America Inc (NASDAQ:MPAA) shares fell 22% to $13.52 following mixed quarterly financial results [8] - Surgery Partners Inc (NASDAQ:SGRY) shares decreased by 23% to $16.52 after reporting mixed third-quarter financial results and cutting FY25 sales guidance below estimates [8] Commodity Market - In commodity news, oil prices decreased by 0.2% to $59.65, while gold prices increased by 2.2% to $4,097.60. Silver rose by 3.7% to $49.920, and copper increased by 1.4% to $5.0240 [5]