近日，国际贵金属市场波动加大，12月29日，以白银为首的贵金属全线重挫，截至当天收盘，COMEX 黄金期货大跌4.45%，COMEX白银期货暴跌7.2%，现货黄金大跌超4%，现货白银暴跌超9%，现货钯金 暴跌超15%，现货铂金暴跌超14%。 （原标题：突发暴跌！全线跳水） 贵金属市场全线跳水。 12月31日午间，国际贵金属市场全线走低。现货白银、COMEX白银、现货铂金、现货钯金、NYMEX 铂、NYMEX钯等多个品种大幅下跌。 此外，黄金现货走低转跌，COMEX黄金跌幅加大。 华龙期货认为，当前白银走势强于黄金，短线波动性和振幅大于黄金。白银的逼仓行情仍在持续且涨势 加速，目前已进入"狂热阶段"，不建议普通投资者贸然参与。低于65的金银比和高位的VIX提示白银可 能超涨，目前短线面临的回调风险越来越大，多头持仓需注意仓位管理并提前设置好止损。白银中长线 投资者可通过买入看跌期权从而在价格回调期间保护自己的期货多头头寸。 综合自：Wind、证券时报此前报道 责编：万健祎 校对：杨舒欣 昨日（12月30日），贵金属市场普遍反弹，COMEX黄金期货涨0.2%；现货黄金涨0.17%；COMEX白银 期货涨7.88% ...

贵金属市场全线跳水。 昨日（12月30日），贵金属市场普遍反弹，COMEX黄金期货涨0.2%；现货黄金涨0.17%；COMEX白银期货涨7.88%；现货白银涨5.66%； NYMEX铂期货收涨4%。 此外，黄金现货走低转跌，COMEX黄金跌幅加大。 近日，国际贵金属市场波动加大，12月29日，以白银为首的贵金属全线重挫，截至当天收盘，COMEX黄金期货大跌4.45%，COMEX白银期 货暴跌7.2%，现货黄金大跌超4%，现货白银暴跌超9%，现货钯金暴跌超15%，现货铂金暴跌超14%。 12月31日午间，国际贵金属市场全线走低。现货白银、COMEX白银、现货铂金、现货钯金、NYMEX铂、NYMEX钯等多个品种大幅下 跌。 对于贵金属市场后市，瑞银警告称，当前贵金属价格的迅速上涨，很大程度是由于市场流动性不足——这意味着很可能快速回落。 华龙期货认为，当前白银走势强于黄金，短线波动性和振幅大于黄金。白银的逼仓行情仍在持续且涨势加速，目前已进入"狂热阶段"，不 建议普通投资者贸然参与。低于65的金银比和高位的VIX提示白银可能超涨，目前短线面临的回调风险越来越大，多头持仓需注意仓位管理 并提前设置好止损。白银中长线 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in gold and silver prices, with gold dropping 5% and silver plummeting 11%, marking the largest single-day declines since September 2020. This downturn follows a period of strong seasonal performance for precious metals, typically characterized by gains of approximately 4% for gold and nearly 7% for silver during the year-end period. The recent price corrections are attributed to profit-taking by investors and a lack of market liquidity [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold experienced a maximum intraday drop of 5%, the largest single-day decline since October 21, and this marks the second occurrence of such a significant drop this year [4]. - Silver's decline was even more severe, with an intraday drop of 11%, the largest single-day decline since September 2020 [5]. - Both metals have retreated significantly from their recent historical highs, raising concerns about an overheated market [6]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Following a strong year-end rebound, the gold and silver markets faced severe sell-offs due to thin market liquidity, leading traders to take profits and ending a recent upward trend [3]. - Michael Haigh from Societe Generale noted that the year-end period typically sees extreme liquidity shortages, which can exacerbate price volatility. He emphasized that the recent declines were primarily driven by profit-taking after a strong seasonal rebound [7]. - Technical indicators, such as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), indicated that gold had been in an overbought territory, suggesting a potential correction was imminent. Silver's situation was more extreme, with a rise of over 25% since mid-December, pushing its RSI well above 70, indicating excessive buying pressure [7]. Group 3: Speculation and Margin Adjustments - The reversal in silver prices occurred shortly after they surged above $84 per ounce, driven by strong investment demand from China, which led to a record premium of over $8 per ounce for Shanghai spot silver compared to London prices [8]. - Analysts highlighted a highly speculative atmosphere in the market, with current conditions being described as extreme due to tight spot supply [9]. - To mitigate risks, exchanges have begun to take action, with CME Group announcing an increase in margin requirements for certain Comex silver futures contracts. This move requires traders to deposit more cash to maintain their positions, potentially forcing undercapitalized speculators to reduce or close their positions [12]. Group 4: Market Pressures and Inventory Status - The recent volatility in silver prices has drawn attention to the severely pressured spot market, with the latest rebound occurring just two months after a comprehensive short squeeze in the London silver market [14]. - Despite significant inflows into London vaults since then, most available silver remains in New York, as traders await the results of a U.S. investigation that could lead to tariffs or other trade restrictions [14].

华龙期货认为，当前白银走势强于黄金，短线波动性和振幅大于黄金。白银的逼仓行情仍在持续且涨势加速，目前已进入"狂热阶段"，不建议普通投资者 贸然参与。低于65的金银比和高位的VIX提示白银可能超涨，目前短线面临的回调风险越来越大，多头持仓需注意仓位管理并提前设置好止损。白银中长 线投资者可通过买入看跌期权从而在价格回调期间保护自己的期货多头头寸。 白银大跳水。 12月29日，白银在短暂冲高后快速跳水，一度跌超6%，截至发稿，伦敦银现跌5.67%，而当日早间，伦敦银现最高涨超6%，创出历史新高。 | < W | | | 伦敦银现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | 74.829 | | 昨结 | 79.329 | 总量 | | 0 | | -4.500 | -5.67% 开盘 | | 79.256 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 83.971 | 持 仓 | 0 | 4 的 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 73.914 | 壇 仓 | 0 | 内 | | O | | 书时 ...

白银大跳水。 12月29日，白银在短暂冲高后快速跳水，一度跌超6%，截至发稿，伦敦银现跌5.67%，而当日早间，伦敦银现最高涨超6%，创出历史新 高。 此外，COMEX白银跌约4%，伦敦金现、COMEX黄金跌近2%，现货钯金跌近12%，NYMEX钯跌超10%，现货铂金跌近6%，NYMEX铂跌 超6%。 据世界白银协会发布的最新数据，2025年全球白银市场的供需缺口预计超1亿盎司，白银市场连续第五年处于供应短缺状态。白银实物投资 需求方面，截至2025年12月26日，全球最大的白银ETF—SLV持仓量为1.64万吨，周环比上涨2%。库存方面，LBMA库存降至历史低位， 截至11月约有27000吨的白银库存，不过大多是和ETF挂钩的白银实物，无法自由流通，白银可流通库存偏紧。 数据显示，目前镍、钯金等品种的投机度百分位已高企，均超过65%。"这意味着市场情绪进入了极其敏感的区间，稍有风吹草动就会引发 连锁反应。"顾冯达称。 综合自：Wind行情、e公司、券商中国等 责编：李丹 校对：高源 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体法律责任的权利。 对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in U.S. tech stocks, particularly Nvidia, has raised concerns about overvaluation in the AI sector, leading to a shift in investor sentiment and potential market adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 17, major U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 556.99 points (1.18%), the S&P 500 down 61.61 points (0.91%), and the Nasdaq falling 192.51 points (0.84%) [1]. - Nvidia's market capitalization has decreased by 4.42 trillion yuan over 14 trading days, reflecting growing fears of an AI stock bubble [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are increasingly uneasy about the high valuations of AI stocks, with the S&P 500 index up 13.66% this year, driven largely by tech stocks [2]. - The average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 30.42, with many major tech stocks, including Nvidia and Tesla, significantly exceeding this average [2]. Group 3: Energy Costs and AI - The rapid growth of AI has led to a surge in electricity demand, contributing to rising energy prices, with residential electricity costs increasing by 6% year-over-year as of August [2]. - States with high data center density, such as Virginia, Illinois, and Ohio, have seen electricity price increases of 13%, 16%, and 12%, respectively [3]. Group 4: Treasury Market and Interest Rates - The U.S. Treasury issued $694 billion in bonds over a three-day period, reflecting ongoing pressures in the short-term financing market [4]. - Following the Federal Reserve's October meeting, long-term interest rates have remained stable, indicating a cooling of rate cut expectations [4]. Group 5: Liquidity Concerns - There are signs of liquidity pressure in the short-term financing market, with higher borrowing costs for institutions seeking short-term financing [5]. - The Federal Reserve has suggested that market participants utilize standing repo facilities to manage liquidity [5]. Group 6: Investment Strategies - Warren Buffett's investment portfolio, valued at $267.2 billion, reflects a strategy of patience and value investing, with significant adjustments made in the third quarter [6]. - New investments in stocks like Google, which has a lower P/E ratio than the S&P 500 average, indicate a focus on growth potential and risk resilience [6]. Group 7: Economic Outlook - Upcoming economic reports are expected to influence market sentiment, particularly regarding inflation and employment data [7]. - If inflation remains around 3% with a deteriorating job market, the Fed may consider further rate cuts, while higher inflation could lead to a more cautious approach [7].

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot silver has surged significantly, breaking the $50 per ounce mark in early October and reaching over $53 per ounce by October 14, marking a historic high and surpassing levels seen during the Hunt brothers' attempt to corner the silver market in the 1980s [1] Supply Shortage - The current surge in silver prices is driven by both its financial and industrial attributes [2] - The financial aspect is influenced by the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and ongoing geopolitical risks, enhancing silver's role as a currency and safe-haven asset [3] - On the industrial side, the explosive growth of the solar energy sector has significantly increased demand for silver in photovoltaic applications, contributing to a persistent global supply shortage over the past five years [3] Market Dynamics - As of the end of September, the London silver vault held 24,581 tons of silver, a 0.3% decrease from August, valued at $36.5 billion [3] - The surge in silver prices has led to a historic short squeeze in the London market, causing liquidity to nearly dry up and pushing the premium of London silver over New York silver from the usual 3 cents to over 20 cents [3] - The overnight borrowing rate for silver in London has increased by over 100%, raising the cost of short covering [3] Transportation and Logistics - In response to the tight supply in the London market, traders have taken extreme measures, including airlifting silver from the New York Mercantile Exchange to London, with estimates of 15 to 30 million ounces being transported [4] - Some traders have even booked cargo space on transatlantic flights for transporting large silver bars, a method typically reserved for gold [4] Market Outlook - Analysts have differing views on the future of silver prices. Citigroup has raised its silver price forecast from $45 to $55 per ounce, citing structural and cyclical tailwinds [6] - Bank of America has increased its 2026 silver price target from $44 to $65 per ounce, driven by ongoing supply gaps and high fiscal deficits [6] - Conversely, Goldman Sachs has warned investors to be cautious, citing greater volatility and downside risks for silver compared to gold, which benefits from structural central bank buying support [6][7] Investment Characteristics - Silver lacks the institutional and economic support that gold has, as it is not included in the International Monetary Fund's reserve framework and is not significantly held by modern central banks [7] - The absence of central bank buying support means that even a temporary reduction in investment inflows could lead to disproportionate price corrections for silver [7] - Overall, while gold is seen as a better option for portfolio diversification, silver's volatility makes it more suitable for speculative scenarios [7]