洪瀬: 牛势继续 已付费 原创 经济学家洪源 洪源的宏观策略 2025年08月25日 08:05 中国香港 Ｑ 听全文 前言 3800后如何交易? 久违了的3,800突破了，市场将何去何从？ 投资者应该 如何交易？这篇是双语报告，用两种语言预测市场走 Doubts about the Bull, But ... Last week, the Chinese market saw its best weekly gain since October 2024. The Shanghai Composite successfully broke through and closed above 3,800, a level of round-number significance. However, despite a powerful rally on Friday, there were more stocks falling than rising at Friday's close. As many were traumatized by Chinese markets' transient spurs, ...

Group 1 - Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD) has seen a price increase of 2.83%, trading at $407.22, with a price-target hike to $433 from $417, benefiting from a 10.9% quarterly gain and breaking into the black year to date [1] - The company is set to report second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, Aug. 19, with options traders optimistic about continued positive performance [1] - Historically, Home Depot has a modest post-earnings move average of 1.5% over the last two years, with five out of eight reports resulting in upward movements, including a 2.8% gain in February [2] Group 2 - The options market is currently pricing in a larger than usual post-earnings move of 4.9% for the upcoming earnings report [2] - Calls have been favored by traders, as indicated by a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.11, which is above 98% of readings from the past year [3] - The Schaefer's Volatility Index (SVI) for Home Depot is at 23%, indicating relatively low volatility expectations and sitting in the 13th percentile of readings from the past 12 months [3] Group 3 - The stock's 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 76, indicating it is in "overbought" territory and at its highest levels of the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are overly complacent regarding the upcoming U.S. trade tariff deadline on August 1, with the market currently pricing in a perfect scenario [1] Group 1: Market Concerns - Megan Horneman highlights potential risks including uncertainty around Federal Reserve policies and overbought conditions in the market [1] - There is a concern that if expectations for interest rate cuts are removed and trade issues remain uncertain, the market may experience a valuation correction [1] - Technical indicators suggest that growth stocks, particularly large tech stocks, are in an overbought state, which could disrupt the current market rebound [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Despite a cautious short-term outlook, Horneman remains bullish in the long term, viewing market pullbacks as investment opportunities [2] - International stocks are identified as a preferred choice during market weakness, as they are relatively undervalued compared to the U.S. market [2] - The S&P 500 index has seen a 16% increase over the past three months, while the Nasdaq index has risen by 21% in the same period [2]

Group 1 - The core concern is that investors are overly complacent regarding the upcoming U.S. trade tariff deadline on August 1, with the market currently pricing in a perfect scenario [1] - There are uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies and technical indicators showing overbought conditions, which could lead to a valuation correction in the market [1] - The market has seen significant gains, with the S&P 500 index rising 16% and the Nasdaq index increasing 21% over the past three months [2] Group 2 - The chief investment officer of Verdence Capital Advisors, Megan Horneman, remains bullish in the long term, viewing market pullbacks as investment opportunities, particularly favoring international stocks [1] - Despite high valuation levels, international stocks are considered relatively cheap compared to the U.S. market, indicating a potential rotation of funds into these assets [1] - Trader Guy Adami expressed concerns about the market being somewhat bubble-like, primarily driven by retail investors [2]

Group 1 - Opendoor Technologies Inc. shares experienced a rise attributed to positive comments from a hedge fund manager on social media [1] - The stock is currently considered extremely overbought, nearing a previous peak price of $4.85, which was established in December 2023 [1][5] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions in both short-term and long-term perspectives, suggesting a potential market correction [2][4] Group 2 - The overbought status may attract sellers anticipating a price reversion, which could exert downward pressure on the stock [5] - Historical resistance levels, such as the $4.85 mark, may lead to psychological barriers for investors holding losing positions, further complicating the stock's upward momentum [5][6] - There is uncertainty regarding when the current rally will conclude, but a significant likelihood exists that it may occur around the $4.85 resistance level [6]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Performance - Optimistic sentiment drives technical indicators into overbought territory, supported by a trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, the passage of the tax reform bill in the House, and stronger-than-expected employment data [1] - US stock funds saw the highest net inflow since November last year, with a net inflow of $31.6 billion last week, following six consecutive weeks of outflows [5] - The S&P 500 index may trigger a "sell signal" if it breaks through 6,300 points in July, indicating potential bubble risks as the market is currently overbought [6] Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - The US added 147,000 non-farm jobs last month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - Job openings in May reached 7.769 million, surpassing the expected 7.3 million, indicating a healthy labor market despite a slowdown in hiring [3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q2 GDP growth was revised down from 2.9% to 2.6%, although still above the long-term trend growth rate of 1.8% [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut in July has diminished, with traders assigning a 68% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, down from 74% a week prior [4] - The latest employment data complicates the case for a quick dovish shift by the Federal Reserve, as rising effective tariff rates and stable job markets may delay rate cuts until Q4 or even December [5] - The market's resilience amid stable employment data has offset the negative impact of reduced rate cut expectations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the KDJ indicator as a tool for identifying turning points in the stock market, likening it to a "speed sensor" for stock prices, helping investors understand whether the market is accelerating towards a peak or preparing for a rebound [1]. Group 1: KDJ Indicator Overview - KDJ consists of three lines: K (short-term speed), D (medium-term speed), and J (extreme speed), which together monitor stock price momentum [3]. - The combination of these three lines is essential for identifying market turning points [3]. Group 2: Practical Application of KDJ - **Golden Cross and Death Cross**: A golden cross occurs when the K line crosses above the D line, signaling a potential upward movement, while a death cross occurs when the K line crosses below the D line, indicating a possible downward correction. For example, a tech stock saw its price rise from 15 to 30 after a golden cross, then drop back to 20 following a death cross [4]. - **Overbought and Oversold Conditions**: The J line indicates extreme conditions; a J value above 100 signals overbought conditions, while below 0 indicates oversold conditions. For instance, a liquor stock had a J value of 120 before a 15% correction, and a J value of -10 before an 8% rebound [5]. - **Divergence**: A top divergence occurs when the stock price reaches a new high but the KDJ does not, suggesting potential selling pressure. Conversely, a bottom divergence indicates a possible reversal when the stock price hits a new low but the KDJ does not [8]. Group 3: Trading Strategies and Tips - KDJ is best used for short-term fluctuations, particularly in a sideways market, where its signals are more reliable [8]. - In a strong trend, KDJ may remain in overbought or oversold territory, and traders should consider volume and market conditions before making decisions [8]. - A mnemonic for using KDJ effectively is: "Golden cross looks at volume, death cross looks at support, avoid hard resistance in overbought/oversold conditions, and turn quickly when divergence appears" [8].