Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the new VAT law and its regulations starting January 1, 2026, introduces significant changes in how mixed sales are taxed, allowing for a more practical approach to determining applicable tax rates based on the main business activity involved in a taxable transaction [4][5][7]. Summary by Sections VAT Law and Implementation - The new VAT law specifies different tax rates for various sales activities: 13% for general goods, 9% for transportation and construction services, 6% for services and intangible assets, and zero tax for exports. Small-scale taxpayers are subject to a 3% rate [4]. - The law allows businesses to separately account for different sales activities if they are not related, enabling the application of the corresponding tax rate for each [4]. Mixed Sales Definition - The definition of mixed sales has been expanded under the new regulations to include transactions involving multiple tax rates or collection rates, not limited to just goods and services [5][6]. - The new approach emphasizes the main business activity in determining the applicable tax rate, which is seen as more reasonable and operationally feasible compared to previous definitions [5][7]. Practical Implications - The new VAT regulations will have a broad impact across various industries, requiring businesses to reassess their tax rate applications and potentially restructure their business models for compliance [11][12]. - For example, in the renovation industry, if the primary purpose of a transaction is the provision of renovation services, the applicable tax rate would be 9%, even if it includes the sale of materials [11][12]. Future Considerations - Experts suggest that the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation should provide clearer guidelines for industries where the distinction between main and ancillary services is not obvious [12]. - There is a call for further simplification of VAT rates to enhance neutrality and streamline the VAT deduction chain, addressing the complexities arising from multiple tax rate options [12].

极兔去年第四季的海外业务增长动力强劲，东南亚及新兴市场表现均超出预期，其中东南亚/新兴市场 分别增长73.6%/增79.7%。主要驱动力来自TikTok Shop加大投资及极兔市占率进一步提升。新兴市场 79.7%的年增长率表现强劲，主要受益于与TikTok Shop及拉美电商平台MELI合作带来的强劲动能。 花旗发布研报称，将极兔速递-W(01519)2025至27年各年盈利预测分别上调2%、5%及3%，并基于海外 动能加速，将估值倍数从先前预测今年市盈率25倍提升至30倍。目标价由12港元上调至15港元，评 级"买入"，维持行业首选股之列。 ...

极兔去年第四季的海外业务增长动力强劲，东南亚及新兴市场表现均超出预期，其中东南亚/新兴市场 分别增长73.6%/增79.7%。主要驱动力来自TikTok Shop加大投资及极兔市占率进一步提升。新兴市场 79.7%的年增长率表现强劲，主要受益于与TikTok Shop及拉美电商平台MELI合作带来的强劲动能。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，将极兔速递-W（01519）2025至27年各年盈利预测分别上调2%、 5%及3%，并基于海外动能加速，将估值倍数从先前预测今年市盈率25倍提升至30倍。目标价由12港元 上调至15港元，评级"买入"，维持行业首选股之列。 ...

花旗发表研究报告指，极兔速递去年第四季的海外业务增长动力强劲，东南亚及新兴市场表现均超出预 期，分别增长73.6%/79.7%，主要驱动力来自TikTok Shop加大投资及极兔市占率进一步提升。鉴于最新 的营运数据，该行将极兔2025至27年各年盈利预测分别上调2%、5%及3%，并基于海外动能加速，将估 值倍数从先前预测今年市盈率25倍提升至30倍；目标价由12港元上调至15港元，评级"买入"，维持行业 首选股之列。 ...

海外市场增长潜力大，中国市场输出先进经验 (1)东南亚市场：东南亚人均包裹量与中国相比有4.9倍提升空间，尚属发展早期。公司在成本、服务方 面竞争力领先，持续获得平台业务增量，增量助力规模效应降本形成良性循环。(2)新市场：新市场渗 透率与中国相比仍处于较低水平，随着公司加大投入完善网络服务质量，以及主要客户对新市场的持续 开拓，该行预计公司在新市场的发展将进入快车道。(3)中国市场：中国市场是公司全球扩张的基本 盘，公司将国内成熟的快递经验输出到海外，助力海外市场实现高效运营。 风险提示 2026年1月7日，极兔速递披露2025Q4经营数据。2025Q4，公司实现业务量84.6亿票，同比+14.5%，其 中公司在东南亚/中国/新市场分别完成24.4/58.9/1.3亿票。 海外市场维持高增长，中国市场高质量发展 (1)东南亚市场：2025Q4，公司在东南亚件量同比增长73.6%，在高基数的背景下继续保持高增长。(2) 新市场：新市场电商渗透率较低，人均包裹量潜力大，随着公司网络服务质量提高获取更多单量，公司 在新市场件量增长逐渐加速，2025Q4公司新市场件量同比增速环比2025Q3提高31.8pct。(3 ...

智通财经APP获悉，财通证券发布研报称，维持极兔速递-W(01519)"买入"评级，公司处于快速发展阶 段，具备高成长性，极兔速递2025年第四季度业务量达84.6亿票，同比增长14.5%。公司在东南亚市场 表现突出，件量同比增长73.6%；新市场增速环比提升，发展加速；中国市场竞争中转向高质量发展。 整体来看，公司在海外市场依托规模效应和服务优势持续高增长，并将国内成熟运营经验输出至全球网 络。 财通证券主要观点如下： 近期事件 2026年1月7日，极兔速递披露2025Q4经营数据。2025Q4，公司实现业务量84.6亿票，同比+14.5%，其 中公司在东南亚/中国/新市场分别完成24.4/58.9/1.3亿票。 (1)东南亚市场：2025Q4，公司在东南亚件量同比增长73.6%，在高基数的背景下继续保持高增长。(2) 新市场：新市场电商渗透率较低，人均包裹量潜力大，随着公司网络服务质量提高获取更多单量，公司 在新市场件量增长逐渐加速，2025Q4公司新市场件量同比增速环比2025Q3提高31.8pct。(3)中国市场： 中国快递行业件量增速逐步放缓，公司主动进行策略调整，加强网络建设，追求有质量的增长。 ...

机构：中信建投证券 研究员：韩军/梁骁 核心观点 2025 年第四季度，公司总体实现包裹量84.6 亿件，同比增长14.5%，日均包裹量9,200 万件。2025 年全 年，公司总体包裹量首次突破300 亿件大关，达301.3 亿件，同比增长22.2%，日均包裹量8,250 万件， 同比增长22.6%。极兔整体实现稳健增长，主要得益于东南亚和新市场强劲的业务表现，以及中国市场 的稳定贡献。2025 年全球超300 亿个包裹将是公司新起点。未来公司将继续强化全球网络，以创新驱动 增长持续满足市场需求。 投资逻辑 1、东南亚快递市场稳固的龙一地位 东南亚是极兔的核心基本盘，按包裹量计，已经连续6 年排名第一。伴随业务规模提升，单均成本持续 优化，公司将降本收益持续让利给客户。不仅实现了对中小型快递公司的出清，也持续拉开与电商自建 物流竞对的差距。 2、TikTok 全球电商发展的影子股 TikTok 从2024 年开始加速在海外市场的电商业务拓展，主要聚焦东南亚、拉美和欧洲市场。由于其发 展初期，超高的订单增速，以及不自建物流的发展战略，极兔由于其网络健全性和较高性价比，成为 TikTok 电商商业模式成立的核心 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jitu Express has shown strong growth in its operational performance, particularly in Southeast Asia, while facing challenges in the Chinese market. The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the Southeast Asian logistics sector due to strategic investments and operational efficiencies [1][2]. Group 1: Operational Performance - In Q4 2025, Jitu Express achieved a total package volume of 8.461 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.5%. The Southeast Asian package volume reached 2.436 billion pieces, up 73.6%, while the Chinese package volume was 5.891 billion pieces, down 0.4% [1]. - The new market package volume reached 134 million pieces in Q4 2025, marking a 79.7% increase year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth - Jitu Express is expected to continue its high growth trajectory in Southeast Asia, with package volume projected to reach 7.366 billion pieces in Q4 2025, reflecting a 67.8% year-on-year increase. This growth is driven by increased investments from e-commerce platforms and promotional activities [1]. - The company has established nine new transfer centers and added 80 self-owned transport vehicles in new markets, enhancing operational efficiency and service quality [2]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Due to the better-than-expected growth in Southeast Asia and new markets, Jitu Express has revised its profit forecasts upward. The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are $3.87 billion, $6.02 billion, and $8.88 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 93.01%, 55.69%, and 47.47%, respectively [2].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, focusing on compliance and rational competition while maintaining high growth rates in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The 2026 National Postal Work Conference indicates that the express delivery industry will continue to grow, with an expected business volume of 2.14 billion packages, representing an approximate 8% year-on-year increase [3]. - In 2025, the national express business revenue reached 1.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, while the business volume was 1.99 billion packages, growing by 13.7% [3]. - The industry is expected to maintain a double-digit growth rate in express volume due to policies aimed at boosting consumption [3]. Group 2: Pricing Strategies - The conference emphasized the need to shift from traditional reliance on scale and speed to qualitative improvements and reasonable growth, discouraging the "price for volume" model [2]. - In 2025, several regions in China raised express delivery prices, with increases ranging from 0.3 to 0.5 yuan per package, indicating a general acceptance among customers [3][4]. - The price adjustments are seen as necessary for the industry's healthy development, allowing for adequate profit margins to support investments in service quality [4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The industry is witnessing an increase in the application of technology, including the deployment of over 3,000 unmanned delivery vehicles, which have significantly reduced transportation costs by 50% [6]. - Companies like Yunda are investing in AI technologies to enhance customer service and operational efficiency, developing tailored solutions for the industry [6]. Group 4: International Expansion - The industry is encouraged to accelerate international expansion while adapting strategies to local market conditions, avoiding the direct replication of domestic pricing strategies [7]. - Jitu reported a 73.6% year-on-year increase in package volume in Southeast Asia, reaching 2.44 billion packages in Q4 2025, while also achieving significant growth in new markets [7]. - SF Express reported a 27% year-on-year growth in international express and cross-border e-commerce logistics revenue in Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend in international business [7].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is moving towards high-quality development, with a focus on compliance and rational competition, as indicated by the recent national postal work conference held on January 7, 2026 [1]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Pricing - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain high growth rates in 2026, with ongoing price adjustments for e-commerce collection services [1]. - Various regions in China have raised express delivery prices in 2025, with increases ranging from 0.3 to 0.5 yuan per package [1]. - Customers have shown a high acceptance level for the price increases, as the overall pricing in 2025 remains relatively low compared to previous years [1]. Group 2: Industry Strategy and Technology - The industry is moving away from a price-for-volume strategy to ensure healthy development and adequate profit margins, which are essential for investments in equipment, personnel, quality, and service [2]. - Some delivery points plan to accelerate the deployment of unmanned devices in 2026, although strict local regulations currently limit their implementation [2]. - There are plans to introduce unmanned vehicles to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, reflecting a strategic shift towards technological advancement [2].