美东时间周一，美股三大指数集体下跌，截止收盘，道指跌1.18%，纳指跌0.84%，标普500指数跌0.92%。 01 冈拉克警告美国股市投机过热 建议投资者持有20%现金避险 对于美股当下市场，华尔街资深投资人、双线资本首席执行官兼首席投资官杰弗里·冈拉克表示，目前众多资产价格已极度高估，建议投资者将投资组合 中约20%配置为现金，以防范重大市场回调风险。 冈拉克警告称，当前美国股市呈现出危险的投机特征，是他整个职业生涯中见过的最不健康的市场之一。"这个市场极度投机，而投机市场总会涨到荒谬 的高度，每一次都是如此。" 这位毕业于达特茅斯学院、20世纪80年代中期在TCW集团开启华尔街生涯的投资者称，如今的AI概念股及数据中心投资存在明显的投机过热，并提醒在 繁荣周期中进行动量投资往往以惨败收场。 他表示仍然看好黄金，但已将建议配置比例从25%下调至15%。他曾在9月中旬基于"关税将推高进口价格、通胀难降"的逻辑，建议投资者重仓黄金。 大型科技股多数下跌，AMD、英特尔跌超2%，英伟达、苹果、甲骨文、Meta跌超1%；谷歌逆势涨超3%、盘中刷新历史高位，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒 韦在第三季度买入谷歌母公司Alp ...

纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.21%，热门中概股中，阿特斯太阳能跌15%，小鹏跌10%，小马智行跌 6%，理想跌超4%，再鼎医药跌超3%，百胜中国、京东、文远知行至少涨超0.5%，阿里巴巴涨2.8%， 金山云涨9.1%，晶科能源涨13%。 来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇11月18日｜美股三大指数集体收跌，道琼斯指数跌1.18%，标普500指数跌0.92%，纳斯达克综合 指数跌0.84%。其中，标普500指数跌破6700点，结束了连续10个星期一上涨的势头。大型科技股多数 下跌，AMD、英特尔跌超2%，英伟达、苹果、甲骨文、Meta跌超1%，谷歌逆势涨超3%。黄金矿业股 普跌，赫克拉矿业跌超4%，金田、哈莫尼黄金跌超3%。加密货币概念股走弱，Coinbase跌超7%， Circle跌超6%。 ...

这场下跌考验的不仅是散户信心，更是华尔街对比特币作为长期配置资产的定力。随着ETF资金流出、杠杆平仓和宏观风险偏好回落的叠 加，市场正在经历一场关于"比特币何时才能兑现承诺"的严峻拷问。 抛售潮来袭：市场信心快速瓦解 比特币的急剧下挫发生在一个本应利好的背景下。华尔街已就位，交易所交易基金（ETF）正将加密货币带入主流投资组合，特朗普政府也 全面拥抱加密行业。但市场却迅速、猛烈且毫无明确触发因素地撤退。 彭博汇编的数据显示，到本周一，比特币的总市值已较今年10月的高点缩水约6000亿美元。在交易台和社交媒体上，焦虑情绪正在蔓延。交 易员们翻出旧图表、重温熟悉的理论、寻找买家。 部分损失反映出市场的疲惫和过度反应。散户资金在高点追逐加密概念股遭遇重创。今年10月初，贸易紧张局势的意外升级引发了清算潮， 而当时杠杆正处于峰值。结果是：一个预期过高、信心不足、过于脆弱的市场，在情绪反转后无力接住下跌的刀子。 比特币正经历一场来势汹汹的下跌，即便华尔街的支持、政策的支持和机构资金的涌入悉数到位。 截至本周一，这一全球最大加密货币已将今年年内的涨幅几乎悉数抹去，在10月6日涨破12.6万美元创最高纪录后，市值六周内蒸发 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has officially entered a technical bear market following a significant price drop, with a decline of over 25% from its historical high in October 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors and market dynamics [1][8]. Market Performance - On November 16, 2025, Bitcoin's price fell to a low of $93,778.6, marking a drop of over 5% from the previous day and the first time it fell below the $95,000 psychological level since October 10 [3]. - The overall cryptocurrency market experienced a widespread decline, with Ethereum dropping below $3,200 and a monthly decline of 20% [3]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies evaporated by over $1 trillion within 24 hours, reflecting significant losses since the October peak [4]. Liquidation and Trading Dynamics - Nearly 100,000 investors faced liquidation in the past 24 hours, with total liquidation amounts reaching approximately $2.51 billion [5][6]. - Long positions accounted for over 70% of the liquidations, indicating a significant market shift [6]. Macroeconomic Context - The decline in Bitcoin's price is linked to a shift in U.S. monetary policy expectations, with the market's optimism for a Federal Reserve rate cut dissipating [8]. - Strong employment data and consumer spending in the U.S. have led to a reassessment of the likelihood of rate cuts, causing investors to withdraw from high-risk assets like Bitcoin [8]. Institutional and Whale Activity - Institutional investors and long-term holders have shifted from buying to selling, leading to a sharp decline in market buying power [10]. - Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have seen a net outflow of $311.3 million in the week ending November 16, marking the longest streak of outflows since March [11]. - Long-term holders sold approximately 815,000 Bitcoins in the past 30 days, the highest level of selling activity since early 2024 [12]. Market Sentiment and Narrative Shift - The narrative surrounding Bitcoin as "digital gold" and an inflation hedge has been challenged, as it has not performed as a safe haven during market volatility [18]. - The anticipated "halving" event, which typically boosts prices, has not provided the expected support, leading to profit-taking by investors [18]. - Recent events, including the U.S. Department of Justice's seizure of 127,000 Bitcoins, have undermined the perception of security in cryptocurrency transactions [19].

Core Insights - BitMine Immersion Technologies has added 54,156 ETH, valued at approximately $170 million, to its balance sheet, bringing its total ETH holdings to 3,559,879 ETH worth over $11.1 billion, making it the largest publicly traded Ethereum treasury globally [1][2] - Despite Ethereum's price dropping more than 11% in the last week and being 35% off its all-time high from August, BitMine continues to accumulate ETH [3][2] - BitMine's Chairman, Tom Lee, predicts an Ethereum "supercycle," suggesting potential long-term price increases, with a possibility of a 100x rise similar to Bitcoin's past performance [4][5] Company Holdings - BitMine holds 3,559,879 ETH valued at over $11.1 billion, 192 Bitcoin worth about $18 million, and $607 million in cash [2] - The firm is positioned as the second largest crypto treasury overall, following Michael Saylor's Strategy with a $61 billion Bitcoin stash [2] Market Predictions - Predictions regarding Ethereum's price movement are nearly evenly split, with a 51% likelihood of falling to $2,500 rather than rising to $4,000 [4] - The market is still recovering from a significant liquidation event in October, which saw over $19 billion in positions wiped out in a single day [5] Market Dynamics - The current market conditions suggest that a market maker may have been severely impacted during the recent crash, leading to reduced liquidity functions and dampened prices, akin to quantitative tightening [6] - Tom Lee remains bullish on year-end predictions, suggesting Bitcoin could reach $150,000-$200,000 and Ethereum could rise to $7,000 by the end of the year [6]

Market Overview - On November 17, US stock markets opened lower but turned positive, with the Dow Jones up 0.01%, S&P 500 up 0.01%, and Nasdaq up 0.07% [1] - The performance of tech stocks was mixed, with significant gains in storage chip stocks; Micron Technology rose over 5%, reaching a new historical high, while Western Digital and SanDisk increased nearly 4% and 8% respectively [3] Company Performance - Berkshire Hathaway released its Q3 13F report, marking the last detailed disclosure of its stock portfolio before Warren Buffett's retirement as CEO. The report indicated a significant sell-off of Apple shares and an increase in holdings of Alphabet [3] - Among major tech stocks, Google saw a rise of over 4%, with its market capitalization surpassing $3.5 trillion, while Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon each fell over 1% [3] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index decreased by 0.04%, but some popular Chinese stocks performed well, with Alibaba up 3.6%, Global Data up 3.3%, and JD.com up 2.4% [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices continued to adjust, with spot gold down 0.43% at $4062.56 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures down 0.49% at $4074.2 [4][5] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a continued decline, with Bitcoin down 1.32% and Ethereum and Solana dropping nearly 2%. Over the past 24 hours, more than 160,000 traders faced liquidation [5][6] - Bitcoin experienced a significant price drop, falling below $94,000 and erasing all gains for the year, having plummeted over 25% since reaching a record high of $126,251 on October 6 [6][7] Market Sentiment - Analysts noted that the sharp decline in Bitcoin prices is primarily due to tightening dollar liquidity and changing Federal Reserve policy expectations, leading to increased funding costs that impact high-volatility assets [7][8] - The simultaneous decline of risk assets like Bitcoin and traditional safe-haven assets like gold is seen as a warning sign, indicating systemic liquidity contraction and tightening market conditions [8]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, reaching a peak of $126,251 on October 6, only to drop below $94,000 by November 17, erasing all gains for the year due to tightening dollar liquidity and changing market conditions [1][2][3] Market Dynamics - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a combination of macro liquidity tightening, decreased market risk appetite, and cyclical factors within the cryptocurrency industry [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal and monetary policy has led to a cautious trading environment, affecting both risk and safe-haven assets [3][9] - Bitcoin's price drop has coincided with a decline in traditional safe-haven assets like gold, indicating a broader market liquidity crisis [1][9] Institutional Involvement - Institutional investors have been a key support for Bitcoin's price, but recent outflows have raised concerns about market stability [6][7] - The recent tightening of macro liquidity and increased political and policy uncertainties have prompted some institutions to withdraw from the market, contributing to Bitcoin's price decline [6][7] Future Outlook - Despite the current volatility, the long-term fundamentals for Bitcoin remain intact, supported by global asset diversification trends and increasing institutional participation [6][7] - The narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation still holds potential, but it requires a shift from a speculative tool to a value storage asset [7][8] - The need for a more robust regulatory framework and technological trust is critical for Bitcoin's future acceptance as a mainstream asset [7][8] Correlation with Other Assets - The simultaneous decline of risk assets like Bitcoin and safe-haven assets like gold suggests a systemic liquidity issue, where investors are forced to liquidate assets for cash [9][10][11] - The current market environment indicates that various asset prices are increasingly correlated, reflecting a deeper liquidity pressure test [11]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant pressure, with Bitcoin's price dropping to $93,714, erasing all gains made in 2025, primarily due to a combination of macroeconomic expectations, liquidity issues, and trading sentiment [3][5][9]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price fell to $93,714, marking a nearly 2% decline in 24 hours and a loss of approximately $600 billion in market capitalization since its peak [3][5]. - Ethereum also saw a decline, with its price dropping below $3,200 and a 7-day decline of 11.38% [6][9]. - Other cryptocurrencies, including Tether, XRP, BNB, and Solana, experienced varying degrees of decline [4][6]. Factors Contributing to Market Decline - **Macroeconomic Expectations**: Uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction has led to fluctuating risk asset preferences, impacting both the stock market and cryptocurrencies [6][7]. - **Liquidity Pressures**: There has been a notable outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs since September, with some long-term holders cashing out during tightening liquidity conditions [6][7]. - **Trading Vulnerabilities**: High leverage levels and emotional trading have made the market susceptible to liquidity shocks, with over 230,000 accounts liquidated in a recent 24-hour period [8][9]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term volatility, the recent corrections may reflect a necessary adjustment to previously inflated expectations [9][10]. - The long-term viability of Bitcoin as a mainstream asset depends on the maturation of ETF channels, regulatory clarity, and sustained demand in on-chain finance and cross-border payments [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that while the current market structure remains fragile, the potential for recovery exists if macro liquidity conditions do not worsen [10][11].

行情数据显示，比特币于2024年12月31日收于93714.04美元。进入2025年后，在美国大选后政策预期、机构资金涌入及ETF获批等多重利好推动下，价格迅 速攀升。10月6日，比特币创下126198美元的历史新高，较年初低点上涨逾31%。然而，仅四天后，美国总统特朗普意外发表关于加征关税的言论，引发全 球金融市场剧烈波动，风险资产集体回调，比特币亦由此开启下行通道。 比特币价格在11月16日盘中一度跌破93714美元，正式失守2024年末收盘价水平。这一关键价位的失守意味着自2025年年初以来比特币曾实现的超过30%的 累计涨幅已被完全抹去。11月17日截至发稿前，比特币价格一度跌至93000美元附近。截至发稿前，在95000美元附近震荡，但市场情绪持续低迷，技术面与 资金面均显疲态。 从126198美元高点回落至今，比特币累计跌幅已超过25%，不仅回吐年内全部涨幅，还短暂跌破上年年底收盘位，进入技术性熊市区间。 机构参与度的减弱成为本轮下跌的核心驱动力之一。彭博数据显示，2025年全年，美国比特币现货ETF累计吸引资金流入超过250亿美元，推动相关产品总 资产管理规模升至约1690亿美元。这些资金曾被视 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, reaching a peak of $126,251 on October 6, only to drop below $94,000 by November 17, erasing all gains for the year due to tightening dollar liquidity and changing market conditions [1][2][3] Market Dynamics - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a combination of macro liquidity tightening, decreased market risk appetite, and cyclical factors within the cryptocurrency industry [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal and monetary policy has led to a cautious trading environment, affecting both risk and safe-haven assets [3][4] Institutional Involvement - Institutional investors have been a key support for Bitcoin's price, but recent outflows indicate a potential shift as macro liquidity tightens and political uncertainties rise [5][6] - The reliance on institutional capital highlights the fragility of Bitcoin's narrative as a hedge against inflation, especially given its high volatility compared to traditional assets like gold [6][7] Regulatory Environment - The evolving regulatory landscape and the diminishing expectations of supportive policies from the Trump administration have contributed to market participants' cautious outlook [3][4] - The need for a robust regulatory framework and the maturation of ETF channels are seen as essential for Bitcoin's long-term viability [6][7] Correlation with Other Assets - The simultaneous decline of Bitcoin and gold suggests a breakdown of traditional safe-haven logic, driven by liquidity constraints and a strong dollar [8][9] - The current market environment indicates a deeper liquidity pressure test, where all asset classes are experiencing increased correlation and simultaneous declines [10]