Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is moving towards high-quality development, with a focus on compliance and rational competition, as indicated by the recent national postal work conference held on January 7, 2026 [1]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Pricing - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain high growth rates in 2026, with ongoing price adjustments for e-commerce collection services [1]. - Various regions in China have raised express delivery prices in 2025, with increases ranging from 0.3 to 0.5 yuan per package [1]. - Customers have shown a high acceptance level for the price increases, as the overall pricing in 2025 remains relatively low compared to previous years [1]. Group 2: Industry Strategy and Technology - The industry is moving away from a price-for-volume strategy to ensure healthy development and adequate profit margins, which are essential for investments in equipment, personnel, quality, and service [2]. - Some delivery points plan to accelerate the deployment of unmanned devices in 2026, although strict local regulations currently limit their implementation [2]. - There are plans to introduce unmanned vehicles to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, reflecting a strategic shift towards technological advancement [2].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, focusing on compliance and rational competition while maintaining high growth rates in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The 2026 National Postal Work Conference indicates that the express delivery industry will shift its focus from traditional scale and speed to qualitative improvements and reasonable growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2]. - In 2025, the national express delivery business revenue reached 1.5 trillion yuan, with a volume of 199 billion pieces, showing year-on-year growth of 6.5% and 13.7% respectively. The industry is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, with an estimated volume of 214 billion pieces, reflecting an 8% increase [3]. Group 2: Pricing and Market Dynamics - The express delivery pricing system is expected to rise this year, with various regions having already increased prices for e-commerce packages. Price increases ranged from 0.3 to 0.5 yuan per package in several cities [4]. - The adjustment in pricing is seen as necessary for the industry's healthy development, as it allows for adequate profit margins, which are essential for investments in service quality and operational efficiency [4][5]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Companies are accelerating the application of technology, with over 3,000 unmanned delivery vehicles operating in more than 26 cities, significantly reducing transportation costs and delivery times [8]. - The industry is also investing in AI technologies, with companies like Yunda integrating advanced models to enhance customer service and operational efficiency [8]. Group 4: International Expansion - The trend of internationalization is gaining momentum, with companies like Jitu and SF Express accelerating their overseas operations, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [9]. - Jitu reported a 73.6% year-on-year increase in package volume in Southeast Asia for Q4 2025, while SF Express saw a 27% growth in international express and cross-border e-commerce logistics revenue [9].

大和发布研报称，极兔速递-W(01519)去年第四季的东南亚及新市场增长超出预期，主要由于在线销售 渗透率提高和增加平台投资。该行重申对其"买入"评级，目标价由12.5港元上调至14.5港元，并将其 2025至2027年每股盈利预测上调4%至37%，列为行业首选股。 该行认为，鉴于去年第四季包裹量增长超出预期，对极兔今年在东南亚和新市场的包裹量增长预测，由 原来的25%至30%，上调至30%至35%，同时预计中国的均价压力将有所缓和。 ...

该行认为，鉴于去年第四季包裹量增长超出预期，对极兔今年在东南亚和新市场的包裹量增长预测，由 原来的25%至30%，上调至30%至35%，同时预计中国的均价压力将有所缓和。 智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，极兔速递-W(01519)去年第四季的东南亚及新市场增长超出预 期，主要由于在线销售渗透率提高和增加平台投资。该行重申对其"买入"评级，目标价由12.5港元上调 至14.5港元，并将其2025至2027年每股盈利预测上调4%至37%，列为行业首选股。 ...

美银证券发表研究报告指，极兔速递于去年第四季度录得强劲包裹量增长，尤其在东南亚及新市场表现 突出。数据显示，东南亚每日平均包裹量按年增长73.6%至2650万件，新市场每日包裹量增长79.7%至 145万件，两者均超出预期。基于第四季度表现超出预期，美银将极兔速递2025至2027财年的non-IFRS 盈利预测上调2至3%，并将目标价轻微上调至12.8港元，重申其为2026年的行业首选，评级"买入"。 ...

大和发表研究报告指，极兔速递去年第四季的东南亚及新市场增长超出预期，主要由于在线销售渗透率 提高和增加平台投资。该行重申对其"买入"评级，目标价由12.5港元上调至14.5港元，列为行业首选 股，并将2025至2027年每股盈利预测上调4%至37%。该行认为，鉴于去年第四季包裹量增长超出预 期，对极兔今年在东南亚和新市场的包裹量增长预测，由原来的25%至30%，上调至30%至35%。 ...

国泰海通发布研报称，2025年11月全行业快递件量同比+5%，继续维持个位数增速。反内卷下行业份额 集中趋缓，中通/圆通/韵达/申通25Q3净利率分别同比-0.9/+0.07/-1.5/+0.5pct，环比 +4.8/+0.5/-0.07/+0.6pct，头部企业普遍实现盈利能力修复，预计Q4盈利修复趋势将持续。考虑本轮反内 卷取得的良好效果，以及快递企业盈利修复后的正反馈效应，预计反内卷政策将有望持续，在件量继续 稳健增长的基础上保障行业良性竞争与盈利能力继续修复。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 快递件量增速Q4降至个位数，双十一大促峰值继续平滑 2025年11月全行业快递件量同比+5%，继续维持个位数增速。过去两年轻小件是驱动件量维持较快增长 的重要驱动，2025年7月以来快递反内卷有效推动电商快递行业性价格修复，推测或影响轻小件增长趋 势并提升快递需求品质。其中，电商双十一大促期间件量同比+9%，较2024年大促日均件量21%的增速 放缓，或源于2024年大促首次大幅延长造就高基数，及2025年大促进一步提前启动致件量前移。 大促日均件量是日常的1.18倍，单日件量峰值同比+6.6%，均连续三年收窄，反映大促 ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that Shentong Express has upgraded its core time-sensitive product "Half-Day Delivery" to include 10 additional cities, expanding its service coverage to a total of 40 cities nationwide [1]. Company Developments - Shentong Express has recently announced the upgrade of its "Half-Day Delivery" service [1]. - The newly added cities include Mianyang, Jiangmen, Shaoxing, Changzhou, Jieyang, Shantou, Chaozhou, Zhongshan, Zhuhai, and Nantong [1]. - This expansion reflects the company's strategy to enhance its service offerings and improve delivery efficiency across a broader geographic area [1].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America reports that J&T Express-W (01519) exceeded expectations in Q4, raising non-IFRS profit forecasts for FY2025-2027 by 2-3% and slightly increasing the target price to HKD 12.8, reaffirming it as the industry favorite for 2026 with a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Q4 Performance - J&T Express recorded strong parcel volume growth in Q4, particularly in Southeast Asia and new markets [1] - Southeast Asia's average daily parcel volume reached 26.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 73.6%, while new market parcel volume grew by 79.7% to 1.45 million daily, both exceeding expectations [1] Group 2: Market Growth Drivers - Strong growth in the Southeast Asian market is attributed to increased e-commerce penetration and ongoing capacity expansion, including the addition of 1,000 service points and three new automated sorting systems [1] - This expansion is expected to support a target of 5-10% annual unit cost reduction [1] - Brazil is identified as a key growth driver in emerging markets, while Mexico's parcel volume remains positive despite tariff impacts [1] Group 3: Profitability and Future Outlook - Despite an overall slowdown in the Chinese market, J&T Express maintained profitability by focusing on high-value business and reverse logistics [2] - Core clients such as Temu, SHEIN, and TikTok continue to drive order growth, with Mercado Libre's expanding demand injecting new momentum into new markets [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, Bank of America forecasts parcel volume growth of 43% in Southeast Asia and 49% in new markets [2]

极兔速递在去年第四季度录得强劲包裹量增长，尤其在东南亚及新市场表现突出。数据显示，东南亚每 日平均包裹量达2650万件，同比增长73.6%，新市场包裹量增长79.7%至每日145万件，两者均超出预 期。 美银在报告中指出，东南亚市场的强劲增长来自于电商渗透率提升及公司持续进行的产能扩张，包括新 增1000个营业点及新增3套自动化分拣系统，预计这将支持每年5至10%单位成本下降的目标。而在新兴 市场方面，巴西成为增长的主要驱动力，墨西哥包裹量虽受关税影响，但仍保持正增长，本地化物流模 式转型和半托管电子商务模式，对拥有全国性物流网络布局的公司如极兔有望带来利好。 尽管中国市场整体增长放缓，但极兔速递通过聚焦高价值业务及逆向物流，维持了盈利能力。美银认 为，核心客户如Temu、SHEIN及TikTok持续带来订单增长，而美客多（Mercado Libre）的需求扩大也 为新市场注入新动力。展望2026年，美银预测东南亚和新市场包裹量将分别增长43%与49%。 智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，极兔速递-W(01519)第四季度表现超出预期，将极兔速递 2025至2027财年的non-IFRS盈利预测上调2至 ...