证券研究报告·公司点评报告·能源金属 雅化集团（002497） 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评：自有矿即将 贡献利润，民爆业绩增速亮眼 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,895 | 7,716 | 9,456 | 11,909 | 15,206 | | 同比（%） | (17.72) | (35.14) | 22.55 | 25.94 | 27.69 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 40.22 | 257.12 | 808.12 | 1,281.52 | 1,942.01 | | 同比（%） | (99.11) | 539.36 | 214.30 | 58.58 | 51.54 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.03 | 0.22 | 0.70 | 1.11 | 1.68 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 324.72 | 50.79 | 16.16 | 10.19 | ...

Group 1: Ninebot Company (689009) - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 5.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99.5%, and a net profit of 456 million yuan, up 236.2% year-on-year [10] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been raised to 1.898 billion, 2.700 billion, and 3.600 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 75.1%, 42.2%, and 33.3% [10] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 24X, 17X, and 13X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [10] Group 2: Kweichow Moutai (600519) - The company achieved a revenue of 43.56 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, with a net profit margin of 52.2% [15][13] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 93.96 billion, 99.14 billion, and 104.71 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.0%, 5.5%, and 5.6% respectively [11][12] - The company maintains a strong brand presence and cash flow quality, with a current PE ratio of 21X, 20X, and 19X for the respective years [12][13] Group 3: Caibai Co., Ltd. (605599) - The company reported a net profit forecast for 2025-2027 of 804 million, 877 million, and 949 million yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [19] - The increase in gold prices has driven demand for investment products, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [19] - The company continues to expand its direct store network and enhance its online sales channels, achieving significant growth in e-commerce sales [16][19] Group 4: Bull Group (603195) - The company reported a revenue of 16.831 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and a net profit of 4.272 billion yuan, up 10.4% [18] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 8.04 billion, 8.77 billion, and 9.49 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [19] - The company is focusing on channel expansion and brand recognition to drive long-term sustainable growth [19] Group 5: Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) - The company achieved a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, with a net profit of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% [21] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 12.99 billion, 14.02 billion, and 15.29 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.1%, 7.9%, and 9.1% respectively [21] - The company maintains a strong market presence with a diversified product range and solid management capabilities [21] Group 6: Yili Group (600887) - The company reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, with a net profit of 8.453 billion yuan, down 18.94% [26] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 11.377 billion, 12.138 billion, and 12.815 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 35%, 7%, and 6% respectively [28] - The company continues to focus on high-end product penetration and market share expansion in the dairy sector [28]

Group 1: Company Insights - Dekoli's Q1 2025 revenue increased by 6% year-on-year, but profit margins significantly declined due to high-cost DCI business and product structure adjustments [1] - Transsion Holdings reported Q1 2025 revenue of 13.004 billion, a decrease of 25.45% year-on-year, with net profit down 69.87% due to market competition and supply chain costs [2] - Guangdong Hongda's Q1 gross margin for civil explosives improved compared to the previous year, with expectations for further margin increases as market consolidation progresses [3] - Glodon plans to optimize its personnel structure and expand its digital cost management business, with a focus on urban renewal and a positive outlook for growth in this area [4] - Jieshun Technology aims to increase parking revenue by 5% to 20% through various strategies, with a gross margin of over 70% for certain business segments [5] - YHLO is integrating AI technologies into its product matrix and customer service, enhancing its laboratory automation solutions [6] - AVIC Chengfei is in the component production phase, expecting to enter the product delivery cycle in Q2 2025, which will support its annual performance [7] - Jingzhida's semiconductor business revenue share rose to over 30%, with expectations for further growth and improved gross margins through domestic component substitution [8] Group 2: Industry Trends - The DCI market is experiencing a surge in demand driven by computing power needs, with Dekoli prioritizing capacity for existing orders [1] - Transsion Holdings is focusing on emerging markets with low smartphone penetration, aiming to enhance product innovation and expand its business scale [2] - The civil explosives market is expected to see increased concentration and margin improvements as industry consolidation accelerates [3] - Glodon's digital cost management solutions are positioned to meet diverse client needs, particularly in urban renewal projects [4] - The parking industry is leveraging AI and e-commerce models to enhance revenue streams and operational efficiency [5] - The integration of AI in laboratory automation is becoming a key trend, with companies like YHLO leading the charge [6] - The aerospace industry is focusing on high-quality information disclosure and investor relations to enhance market value [7] - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a shift towards domestic component production, which is expected to improve supply chain security and profitability [8]

Investment Highlights - The report highlights the recovery of revenue growth for Yuyue Medical, with a significant increase in overseas sales, achieving a revenue of 7.57 billion yuan in 2024, down 5.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.81 billion yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year [3][8] - Guotai Group's performance shows resilience in its civil explosives business, with a non-net profit growth of 17.09% year-on-year in Q1 2025, despite a slight revenue decline of 1.26% [12][13] - China Merchants Highway reported a revenue of approximately 2.803 billion yuan in Q1 2025, down 7.24% year-on-year, but net profit improved by 2.74% due to cost control and increased investment income [16][17] - Shenzhen Gas's main business in urban gas sales showed growth, with a revenue of 28.348 billion yuan in 2024, down 8.34% year-on-year, but a net profit increase of 1.19% [21][22] - New Industry's overseas business continued to grow rapidly, with a revenue of 4.535 billion yuan in 2024, up 15.41% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.828 billion yuan, up 10.57% [25][26] - Huali Group's revenue in Q1 2025 grew by 12% year-on-year, driven by new brand collaborations and strong sales of sports shoes [30][31] - Bohai Leasing, a leading aircraft leasing company, reported a significant increase in aircraft sales revenue, reaching 12.7 billion yuan in 2024, up 61.08% year-on-year, driven by a strong aircraft market [35][36] - Weimao Electronics, an industrial intelligent connection control solution manufacturer, achieved a revenue of 260 million yuan in 2024, up 13.69% year-on-year, with a focus on expanding into emerging fields [39][40] Company-Specific Summaries Yuyue Medical (002223.SZ) - The company experienced a revenue decline in 2024 due to high base effects from the previous year, but Q1 2025 showed a recovery with a 9.2% year-on-year increase in revenue [3][9] - The product mix has led to a slight decrease in gross margin, with a 50.1% gross margin in 2024, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The company maintains a strong financial position with 7.08 billion yuan in cash and no short-term or long-term loans [10] Guotai Group (603977.SH) - The civil explosives business showed growth, with a revenue of 327 million yuan in Q1 2025, up 1.4% year-on-year [13][14] - The company faced a decline in electronic detonator sales but saw an increase in explosive engineering revenue [14][15] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 32.72%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, but the non-net profit remained stable [15] China Merchants Highway (001965.SZ) - The company is actively pursuing expansion projects, including the ongoing reconstruction of key highways [17][18] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is expected to grow steadily, with projected profits of 5.74 billion yuan in 2025 [18] Shenzhen Gas (601139.SH) - The urban gas sales volume increased by 2.78% in 2024, with significant growth in the Greater Bay Area [22] - The company is expected to benefit from lower upstream gas prices and increased sales volume [22][24] New Industry (300832.SZ) - The company reported a strong performance in overseas markets, with a 27.67% increase in overseas revenue [27] - The gross margin for 2024 was 72.26%, with a focus on expanding the product lineup in the chemical luminescence sector [28] Huali Group (300979.SZ) - The company maintained a strong partnership with major brands, resulting in a 12.34% revenue increase in Q1 2025 [30][31] - The company is expanding production capacity to meet growing demand, with a workforce increase of 17% [31] Bohai Leasing (000415.SZ) - The company is positioned as a global leader in aircraft leasing, with a fleet size of 1,158 aircraft [36] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is expected to grow significantly, with a projected profit of 1.913 billion yuan in 2025 [37] Weimao Electronics (833346.BJ) - The company is focusing on the automotive and industrial automation sectors, with a projected growth in the vehicle wiring harness market [40][41] - The company is expanding its production capabilities to meet increasing demand in emerging markets [41]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangnan Chemical (002226.SZ) continues to show growth in both revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with significant improvements in cash flow and total assets [1][2] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 2.013 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 146 million yuan, with cash flow from operating activities increasing by 187.93% year-on-year [1] - The company's gross margin improved to 27.39%, up by 1.05 percentage points year-on-year, while net margin reached 9.93%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points [2] - The total profit of the civil explosives industry in Q1 2025 was 1.313 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.03% [2] Industry Position and Growth - Jiangnan Chemical holds a leading position in the civil explosives industry with a production capacity of 765,500 tons, making it one of the most comprehensive civil explosive companies in China [2] - The company is actively involved in industry consolidation and has completed acquisitions to enhance its market position [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the integration of its production capacity and the anticipated injection of assets from affiliated companies [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is leveraging its affiliation with the Weapon Industry Group to focus on civil explosives and participate in the "Belt and Road" initiative, contributing to multiple engineering projects in various countries [3] - Jiangnan Chemical is committed to green and low-carbon development, having established several green factories and contributing to sustainable energy projects [4][5] ESG and Innovation - The company has released its third consecutive ESG report, highlighting its commitment to low-carbon development and resource recycling [4] - Jiangnan Chemical's renewable energy business generated 777 million yuan in revenue and contributed to environmental asset growth through green certificate sales [5] - The company is investing in technological innovation, focusing on smart mining and new explosive materials to enhance its competitive edge [7] Shareholder Engagement - Jiangnan Chemical emphasizes corporate governance and sustainable development, ensuring investor rights and sharing growth with shareholders through dividends [6][7]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 3.654 billion CNY in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 66.14% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 93.52 million CNY, an increase of 23.99% compared to the same period last year [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses reached 86.91 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 53.17% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Business Segments - The mining service segment experienced significant growth, contributing to both revenue and profit increases [2] - The civil explosives segment maintained stable production capacity, with business scale remaining flat compared to the previous year [3] - The defense equipment segment showed good performance, with active promotion of military trade [3] Group 3: Market Insights - The ammonium nitrate price decline has impacted the gross margin of civil explosives, but the overall margin is stabilizing [3][4] - The civil explosives market is expected to see an increase in gross margins due to industry consolidation and higher market concentration [4] - Revenue growth in Xinjiang is primarily driven by new mining service projects [5] Group 4: Future Strategies - The company is committed to an "outbound" strategy, focusing on overseas markets, particularly in South America and South Africa [7] - Plans include establishing an explosives factory in Zambia and acquiring a factory in Peru to expand the overseas civil explosives market [7] - The company will gradually inject civil explosives capacity into Xuefeng Technology based on actual business conditions and market demand [9]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high in mining service revenue, with total revenue for 2024 reaching 13.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 900 million yuan, up 25.4% year-on-year [1][3]. - The mining service segment generated revenue of 10.81 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.0% year-on-year growth, driven by increased investments in rich mineral areas and accelerated international expansion [1][2]. - The company has a robust order backlog exceeding 30 billion yuan, providing a solid foundation for future growth [1]. - The company is actively integrating and optimizing its explosive production capacity, having acquired controlling stakes in two companies to increase explosive production capacity by 82,000 tons per year [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 21.3% for 2024, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 8.6%, up 0.16 percentage points [2]. - Forecasted revenues for 2025-2027 are projected at 21.71 billion, 24.71 billion, and 28.22 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 59.05%, 13.80%, and 14.21% respectively [3][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.58, 1.90, and 2.12 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19.42, 16.14, and 14.49 [3][4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company's overseas revenue reached 1.36 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.7%, accounting for 9.9% of total revenue, up 8.1 percentage points [2]. - The company is investing in a new explosives factory in Zambia and has acquired a 51% stake in EXSUR in Peru to meet local mining project demands [2]. - The company is optimizing its explosive production capacity by relocating excess capacity to regions like Xinjiang and Tibet [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shengjing Micro, has demonstrated resilience and growth potential through technological innovation and strategic market expansion despite industry challenges, achieving significant revenue and profit improvements in 2024 and Q1 2025 [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 504 million yuan and a net profit of 22.91 million yuan, with R&D investment reaching 89.45 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.24%, accounting for 17.74% of revenue [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 88.01 million yuan, remaining stable year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.17 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1]. Technological Innovation - The company has focused on upgrading its core product platforms and diversifying its offerings, successfully developing various electronic control modules tailored for different blasting scenarios [2]. - Significant advancements were made in geophysical exploration and oil and gas applications, including breakthroughs in electronic detonators and the development of a high-temperature resistant and long-distance communication technology [2]. Market Expansion - Shengjing Micro has made strides in international markets, completing CE certification for its smart wireless blasting system and successfully conducting its first application in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [3][5]. - The company has strengthened its customer base by collaborating with strategic partners and expanding its market reach through customized product offerings [4]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its operational management and resource allocation, maintaining a stable asset-liability structure with total assets of 1.706 billion yuan and net assets of 1.573 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [7]. - Enhanced supply chain management and stable partnerships with key suppliers have ensured the security and continuity of the production chain [7]. Future Outlook - Shengjing Micro plans to continue its dual-driven strategy, leveraging its technological expertise and established customer relationships to expand its product matrix and explore new application areas [7]. - The company aims to accelerate its international market presence while maintaining a focus on R&D investment and supply chain optimization to achieve sustainable growth [7].

上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 04 月 29 日 江南化工 (002226) ——民爆矿服高景气延续，盈利能力改善，25Q1 业绩符 合预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 5.49 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 6.25/3.62 | | 市净率 | 1.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.28 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 14,542 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,288.41/9,855.20 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 3.64 | | 资产负债率% | 41.13 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 2,649/2,649 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-29 05-29 06-29 07-29 08-29 09-29 10-29 11-29 ...

投资逻辑： 供给侧："政策+资质"构成核心壁垒，公司炸药产能优势凸显。 ①政策与资质端对民爆供给侧严格约束：除对重组整合、拆线撤点减证等给予支持政策外，原则上不新 增过剩品种的民爆物品许可产能。截至2024 年，公司工业炸药许可产能为76.55 万吨，处于行业第一梯 队。此外，我国对民爆物品的生产、销售、购买、运输和爆破作业实行许可证制度，构成行业资质壁 垒。 暂不考虑后续资产注入的情况下，预计25-27 年公司实现营业收入105.49、116.91、128.64 亿元，同比 +11.26%、+10.83%、+10.04%；实现归母净利润10.31、11.94、13.80 亿元，同比+15.71%、+15.86%、 +15.50%，对应EPS 为0.39、0.45、0.52 元/股，给予公司25 年18 倍PE，目标价7.01 元/股，首次覆盖， 给予"买入"评级。 风险提示： 下游需求不及预期；原材料价格波动；安全生产风险；地缘政治风险。 内需： 2023 年用于煤炭、金属和非金属矿山开采的炸药量占炸药总销量的74.8%；其中用于煤炭开采 占比30.4%、金属矿山占24.7%，非金属矿山占19.7%。根据中 ...