证券研究报告 二手船价先于新船价企稳，301对中国造船业冲击逐步修复 ——2025年5月造船订单总结 证券分析师：闫海 A0230519010004 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 2025.6.10 ◼ 301具体落地政策较草案强度大幅减弱，造船利空压力释放：豁免条件显示在美订造船舶可取得豁免，美国民船建造能力差，产业链搭 建难且劳工招募成本高，同时豁免条件增加订单流向日韩压力减弱，叠加日韩船厂产能饱和，一阶段订单流向日韩带动船价提升，二阶 段高价单重新回流中国，当前老船替换主逻辑下，收费设置上限相当于增设附加费，可被造船业供需紧张带动的船价上行覆盖。301落地 后新签订单及船价有望修复。年初以来，受制于301扰动，船东观望情绪强，造船市场成交量大幅下降，船价阴跌，预期落地后，积压造 船需求有望释放，重新带动订单量及船价上行。 ◼ 关税谈判后看好造船进入预期修复阶段，新签订单及船价有望修复：需求端：中美贸易缓和带动航运市场贸易修复，运价上涨后船公司 资产负债表修复，老船替换主逻辑船公司下单意愿增强。供给端：船厂产能依旧紧缺。年初以来，受制于301扰动，船东观望情绪强，造 船市场成交量大幅下降，船价阴跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the U.S. shipbuilding industry post-World War II and the efforts to revive it through collaboration with allies like Japan and South Korea, amidst rising competition from China. Group 1: U.S. Shipbuilding Industry - The U.S. was once the world's leading shipbuilding nation but has seen its capacity shrink to 1/200th of China's post-WWII [1] - The U.S. government under Trump aims to revitalize the shipbuilding sector by collaborating with Japan and investing in U.S. shipyards [2] - The U.S. has imposed restrictions on Chinese shipbuilding, including fees for Chinese vessels entering U.S. ports [4] Group 2: South Korea's Response - South Korea's HD Hyundai Heavy Industries announced a partnership with Huntington Ingalls Industries to enhance production efficiency and shipbuilding technology [2] - Hanwha Ocean acquired the Philadelphia shipyard and secured maintenance contracts with the U.S. Navy, marking a significant entry into the U.S. defense sector [3] Group 3: Japan's Position - Japan's shipbuilding industry faces challenges such as labor shortages and high costs, making it difficult to expand operations in the U.S. [3] - Japanese companies are cautious about U.S. requests for support, maintaining a wait-and-see approach while managing existing partnerships with Chinese firms [4] - Major Japanese shipping companies plan significant investments, with Mitsui O.S.K. Lines aiming for approximately 2 trillion yen over three years [5] Group 4: Industry Collaboration and Future Outlook - Japanese shipbuilders are collaborating on new environmentally friendly vessels and high-value ships, indicating a shift towards cooperation rather than competition [7] - The Japanese shipbuilding industry is under pressure to adapt and seize opportunities in the global market, with a focus on high-value segments like LNG carriers [6][7] - The design capabilities in China, particularly at the Shanghai Shipbuilding Research Institute, are addressing Japan's talent shortages in ship design [8]

Core Viewpoint - Despite high port fees imposed by the U.S. on Chinese-made ships since April, global buyers continue to purchase vessels from China due to its unmatched technological capabilities and production capacity in shipbuilding [1][5]. Group 1: Shipping Companies' Perspectives - Laurent, Senior Vice President of Mediterranean Shipping Company, stated that port fees will not hinder their plans to order more ships from China, praising China's strong technical capabilities [3]. - Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, a major Japanese shipping company, indicated that despite pausing orders for LNG carriers from China due to U.S.-China trade tensions, they still consider Chinese shipyards as essential partners for high-quality vessels [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The International Maritime Organization aims for the global shipping industry to achieve net-zero emissions within 25 years, prompting increased investments in green fuels and decarbonization technologies, leading to a significant rise in new ship orders [5]. - In the first four months of this year, new ship orders totaled 12.6 million deadweight tons, with Chinese companies securing 54% of the orders, followed by South Korea with 22%, highlighting China's dominant position in the global shipbuilding market [6]. Group 3: Challenges for U.S. Shipbuilding - The U.S. shipbuilding industry faces significant challenges, including astronomical costs that are approximately five times higher than those in Asia, resulting in a limited annual production capacity of about 1.5 ships [5]. - The U.S. industrial base is relatively weak, with most companies opting to collaborate with Chinese supply chains, as exemplified by Mediterranean Shipping Company's partnerships with major Chinese shipyards [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and dynamics of the global shipbuilding industry, particularly focusing on the competition between the U.S. and China, and highlights the continued preference of major shipping companies for Chinese shipyards despite U.S. efforts to revive its own shipbuilding sector [1][2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Efforts and Challenges - The U.S. government, under President Trump, aims to revive its shipbuilding industry by imposing port fees on Chinese vessels, but this has not deterred major shipping companies from ordering ships from China [1][2]. - MSC's senior vice president stated that U.S. initiatives to challenge China's dominance in shipbuilding will not significantly alter their strategy of ordering new ships from Chinese shipyards [2][4]. - The U.S. shipbuilding industry faces significant challenges, including high labor costs and limited technological capabilities, making it difficult to compete with Chinese shipyards [4][8]. Group 2: Chinese Shipbuilding Dominance - China accounts for over 50% of global shipbuilding capacity and has secured more than 70% of the world's green ship orders, including various types of dual-fuel and hybrid vessels [2][5][9]. - Major shipping companies, including MSC, continue to build new ships in China due to its technological capabilities and capacity, which are currently unmatched [2][5]. - The recent delivery of a large LNG dual-fuel container ship built in China underscores the country's leading position in the shipbuilding sector [5][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The global shipping market is evolving towards a "China + Others" model, indicating a significant reliance on Chinese shipyards for new orders [5][6]. - Despite geopolitical tensions, companies are cautious in selecting shipyards for new LNG orders, recognizing the limited number of high-quality shipbuilders globally [5][10]. - Reports indicate a slowdown in global new ship orders due to geopolitical factors, with Chinese shipyards still capturing a majority of the market share [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese shipbuilding industry is experiencing a temporary boom due to high demand and ship prices, but faces significant challenges from Chinese and Korean competitors, particularly in the LNG transport ship sector, leading to a declining global presence [1][5][7]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The shipyard schedule in Japan is booked for three years ahead, with ship prices remaining high, marking a rare "spring" for the industry [1]. - The Japan Marine United (JMU) reported a net profit increase to 19.9 billion yen for the fiscal year 2024, a 5.4 times increase from the previous year, indicating strong performance among Japanese shipbuilders [5]. - Despite the current success, Japan's share of new ship orders has dropped to 7% in 2024, with China at 69% and South Korea at 15%, highlighting a significant decline in global competitiveness [5]. Group 2: Challenges and Competition - Japanese companies have not secured any LNG ship orders since 2016, with South Korea and China dominating the market, holding 60% and 40% of the orders respectively [7]. - The Japanese government is attempting to support the industry by investing approximately 120 billion yen in zero-emission ships, including ammonia and hydrogen fuel vessels, to enhance competitiveness [7][8]. - The "All Japan" initiative aims to standardize fuel tanks for new eco-friendly ships, which could reduce design costs and improve delivery times, addressing the challenges posed by larger competitors [7][8]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The MILES initiative, a collaboration between Imabari Shipbuilding and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, aims to develop liquid CO2 transport ships, indicating a shift towards innovative projects in response to market pressures [8][9]. - The global ship rental market is currently facing low rates due to an oversupply of LNG vessels, complicating the outlook for future ship sales at high prices [9]. - Japanese shipbuilders must adapt quickly to maintain relevance in a rapidly changing market, as exemplified by the completion of a liquid CO2 ship by a Chinese company, which underscores the urgency for Japanese firms to innovate [9].

Core Insights - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report highlights the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global fisheries trade, particularly affecting countries like Mexico, Canada, and Brazil that heavily rely on the U.S. market for primary fishery product exports [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policies - The U.S. is a net importer of primary fishery products, with exports amounting to $4.5 billion and imports reaching $16 billion (approximately 114.9 billion RMB) in 2023 [1] - A 10% tariff is currently imposed on nearly all fishery imports into the U.S., which may lead to increased prices for domestic fish products due to limited production capacity [1] Group 2: Impact on Exporting Countries - Under the USMCA agreement, fishery products from Mexico and Canada that meet origin rules are exempt from tariffs, while those that do not face a 25% tariff [1] - Brazil exports 55% of its primary fishery products to the U.S., and the tariffs may push Brazil to focus on domestic markets or seek other trading partners [1] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The report indicates that U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum have raised costs for shipbuilding and port facilities, potentially disrupting traditional bilateral trade flows [2] - The marine services sector may also be affected, with weakened demand for maritime cargo transport services and adjustments in shipping routes [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining sustainable marine trade flows for global development amidst tariff and climate change challenges [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the ongoing US-Japan tariff negotiations, where the US is urging Japan to increase investments in the American manufacturing sector, particularly in shipbuilding [1] - Japan is considering establishing a US-Japan shipbuilding fund to revitalize the American shipbuilding industry, which is deemed crucial for national security [1] - Nomura believes that the current tariff negotiations could inject new vitality into Japan's shipbuilding initiatives, impacting various sectors including shipbuilding and cybersecurity [1] Group 2 - The US shipbuilding industry faces significant challenges, with an average annual delivery of only 18 vessels and a mere 0.1% share of the global market, in stark contrast to China's 70% market share expected by 2024 [3] - The decline in the US shipbuilding sector has severely hindered the expansion and maintenance of the US Navy, leading to increased costs for military vessels compared to China [3] - For instance, the cost of a new US medium landing ship is approximately $429 million, which is over 13 times that of similar Chinese vessels, while the average cost of a US frigate has soared to $1.6 billion, significantly higher than China's 054B frigate [3] Group 3 - The US civilian shipbuilding market is relatively small and lacks competitiveness, making it difficult to rely solely on military vessels to support the entire industry [4] - Despite efforts to revitalize the shipbuilding sector, high labor costs, a shortage of skilled workers, and outdated infrastructure have impeded progress, prompting the US to seek increased investments from Japanese and Korean companies [5] - The complexity of modern shipbuilding supply chains necessitates a comprehensive rebuilding of the entire industry, not just increasing shipyard capacity, which will significantly raise the demand for skilled labor [7] Group 4 - Over the past decade, Japanese shipbuilding companies have seen a significant decline in market competitiveness and share, dropping to about 6% by 2024, while South Korea's share has also decreased to around 17% [7] - Japan's shipbuilding costs are notably higher than those of China and South Korea, compounded by labor shortages and an aging workforce, which limits production capacity [7] - Even with the introduction of Japanese technology and capital, the shortage of skilled workers poses a challenge, making it unlikely to achieve significant reductions in manufacturing costs in the short to medium term [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's decision to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, aiming to address the decline of the U.S. shipbuilding industry and regain maritime power [1][4] - It highlights that over 70% of new shipbuilding orders in 2022 were secured by China, with Chinese shipyards dominating 14 out of 18 major ship types globally, and accounting for 55% of the world's shipbuilding completion [1][3] - The U.S. shipbuilding industry is struggling, with its commercial ship production expected to account for only 0.1% of global output by 2024, despite previous government subsidies aimed at revitalizing the sector [3][4] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that steel and aluminum are critical to shipbuilding, with steel costs representing approximately 30% of the total cost of a commercial ship, suggesting that increased tariffs could significantly boost domestic steel production [4][8] - It notes that the U.S. government has previously attempted to attract foreign shipbuilding companies to establish operations in the U.S., but these efforts have largely failed, leaving American shipbuilders unable to compete with their foreign counterparts [3][6] - The article illustrates a specific case involving Nippon Steel's attempt to acquire U.S. Steel, which was blocked by the U.S. government, highlighting the challenges faced by American steel companies in the current market [6][8]

Group 1 - HD Hyundai Heavy Industries announced a contract for the construction of 2 container ships with a total value of 386.8 billion KRW (approximately 280 million USD) [2] - The new ships will be built at HD Hyundai Samho and are scheduled for delivery by the end of June 2028 [2] - The order is from Capital Maritime, a shipping company owned by Greek shipowner Evangelos Marinakis, and the ships will be 8400TEU dual-fuel LNG-powered container vessels [2][3] Group 2 - Capital Maritime previously ordered 4 units of 8400TEU container ships, 8 units of 2800TEU container ships, and 6 units of 1800TEU container ships from HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, totaling 1.27 billion USD [3] - The price of new 8500/9500TEU dual-fuel LNG container ships has increased by 7% year-on-year, now averaging 129.5 million USD [2][3] - The founder of Capital Maritime emphasized the importance of Chinese shipbuilding capabilities despite U.S. pressures, citing competitive pricing and improved quality [3] Group 3 - HD Hyundai Heavy Industries set a shipbuilding and offshore business order target of 18.05 billion USD for 2025, a 33.7% increase from the 2024 target [4] - As of now, HD Hyundai Samho has secured new ship orders amounting to approximately 31.9% of its annual target [4] - In the second quarter, HD Hyundai Samho has received multiple new ship orders totaling 1.456 billion USD [4] Group 4 - HD Hyundai Heavy Industries has secured a total of 57 new ship orders worth 6.98 billion USD this year, achieving approximately 38.7% of its annual order target of 18.05 billion USD [6] - The orders include various types of vessels such as LNG carriers, container ships, and oil tankers [6]

Group 1: Banking and Finance - In Q1 2025, the total RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan, with a total balance of 265.41 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [1] - The balance of RMB real estate loans reached 53.54 trillion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.04% and a quarterly increase of 619.7 billion yuan [1] - The consumer finance sector has seen a surge in bad asset transfers, with 103 announcements made by 15 licensed consumer finance companies by May 29, 2025, indicating a significant market activity [2] Group 2: Manufacturing and Industry - China's shipbuilding industry continues to show strong resilience, with new orders in the first four months of 2025 maintaining the largest global market share [3] - The automotive sector reported an import and export total of 23.09 billion USD in April 2025, with exports increasing by 6.9% month-on-month [3] Group 3: Agriculture and Livestock - Major pig farming companies have received notifications to suspend the expansion of breeding sows and control the weight of pigs for slaughter, indicating regulatory measures to stabilize prices [4] Group 4: Technology and Innovation - The first fully automated testing system for medical electronic instruments based on NQI technology has passed inspection, marking a significant advancement in China's medical instrument industry [5] Group 5: Corporate Actions - Zhejiang Medicine plans to use up to 1 billion yuan of idle funds for entrusted wealth management, with a maximum investment period of 12 months [10] - All-in-one subsidiary Jinbo Hydrogen Energy of Quanxin Co. has received a supplier designation notice, indicating a strategic move in the hydrogen energy sector [11]