Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply-demand loosening logic continues. Although the futures price has support, there is no obvious upward driving force in the market. Attention should be paid to the progress and concentration of pre-holiday stocking [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened lower and moved higher, closing flat within the day. The spot market remains weak, with limited improvement in trading after low-price order absorption, and there is still pressure to lower prices to attract orders. The daily urea production has risen to over 190,000 tons, and the high production is suppressing the urea price. The downstream is stocking up before the double festivals, mainly buying at low prices. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased, but the growth rate has slowed down. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory of finished products in factories is high. The inventory in urea factories is increasing and is significantly higher than the same period in previous years [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,655 yuan/ton, opened lower and moved higher, closing flat within the day, and finally closed at 1,658 yuan/ton, up 0.00%. The trading volume was 304,900 lots, a decrease of 2,508 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions decreased by 3,030 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,876 lots. Some futures companies had net long or net short positions changes [2] - Spot: The spot market remains weak. The ex-factory transaction price range of small-grain urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1,560 and 1,600 yuan/ton. Some factories in Hebei have higher quotes and are mainly fulfilling export orders [1][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation declined, and the futures closing price decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at -38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [9] - Supply Data: On September 23, 2025, the national daily urea production was 201,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.93% [11] Warehouse Receipt Data - On September 23, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,535, remaining unchanged compared to the previous trading day [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) announced the successful production launch of its subsidiary Jiangxi Heartland Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.'s (Jiangxi Base) industrial chain extension project (Phase I) on September 23, 2025, with a designed annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of synthetic ammonia and 1.2 million tons of controlled-release fertilizers [1] Group 1 - The successful launch of the project will leverage the existing market and geographical advantages of the Jiangxi base [1] - The project aims to enhance the efficient capacity utilization rate and further consolidate the cost leadership advantage [1] - It is expected to increase the current market share while continuously contributing incremental cash flow, injecting new momentum for high-quality and sustainable development [1] Group 2 - The project will comprehensively enhance the company's overall competitiveness and brand influence [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866.HK) announced the successful production launch of its subsidiary Jiangxi Heartland Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.'s industrial chain extension project (Phase I) on September 23, 2025, with a designed annual capacity of 600,000 tons of synthetic ammonia and 1,200,000 tons of slow-release fertilizers [1] Group 1 - The successful launch of the project will leverage the existing market and location advantages of the Jiangxi base [1] - The project aims to enhance efficient capacity utilization and further consolidate cost leadership [1] - It is expected to increase market share while continuously contributing incremental cash flow, injecting new momentum for high-quality and sustainable development [1] Group 2 - The project will comprehensively enhance the company's overall competitiveness and brand influence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The successful commissioning of the Jiangxi Xinyuan Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. project will enhance the company's production capacity and competitive edge in the fertilizer market [1] Group 1: Project Details - The Jiangxi Xinyuan Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. project has a designed annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of synthetic ammonia and 1.2 million tons of slow-release fertilizers [1] - The project commenced production on September 23, 2025, marking a significant milestone for the company [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The project will leverage the existing market and geographical advantages of the Jiangxi base, improving the efficient utilization of production capacity [1] - It aims to enhance market share while contributing incremental cash flow, supporting the company's goals for high-quality and sustainable development [1] - The initiative is expected to strengthen the company's overall competitiveness and brand influence in the industry [1]

CHINA XLX FERTILISER LTD. 中國心連心化肥有限公司 * （ 在 新 加 坡 註 冊 成 立 之 有 限 公 司 ） 中國心連心化肥有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）欣然宣佈，二零二五年九月二十 三日，本公司附屬公司江西心連心化學工業有限公司（「江西基地」）產業鏈延伸項目（一 期）順利投入生產，具備設計年產能60萬噸合成氨及120萬噸緩控釋肥。 該項目的順利投產，將充分發揮江西基地現有的市場與區位優勢，提升高效產能利用 率，進一步鞏固成本領先優勢。在提升現有市場佔有率的同時，持續貢獻增量現金流， 為實現高質量、可持續發展注入新動能，全面增強公司的綜合競爭力與品牌影響力。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容 而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 （香港股份代號：1866） 自願公告 產業鏈延伸項目（一期）成功投產 香港，二零二五年九月二十三日 於本公告日期，本公司執行董事為劉興旭先生、張慶金先生及閆蘊華女士；本公司獨立 非執行董事為王建源先生、李生 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for urea is "Volatility" [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuous implementation of new urea production capacity and the limited impact of anti - involution policy expectations have led to persistent supply - side pressure. The key to the market lies in exports, and it's necessary to pay attention to whether there will be new changes in export policies and whether the market will conduct a new round of export games for the 2605 contract [2][4][62] - The demand in the fourth quarter is expected to be limited. Agricultural demand may be released periodically but with general intensity, and it will enter the traditional off - season after October. The enthusiasm for tendering in the off - season storage may be high, but the actual impact may be limited. Industrial demand is expected to be relatively stable [3][47] Summary by Directory 1. Export Increment Fails to Change the Excess Pattern, Urea Weakens after Oscillating in the Third Quarter - The existing export quota cannot correct the annual supply - demand surplus pattern of urea, and the profit center of the urea industry still has room to decline. The 2509 contract in the third quarter oscillated around 1700 - 1800 yuan/ton, and the 2601 contract is currently running in the 1600 - 1700 yuan/ton range [13] 2. New Urea Production Capacity Continues to Be Implemented, and the Impact of Anti - Involution Policy Expectations Is Temporarily Limited - In the third quarter, new urea production devices were put into operation as expected. From January to August, the urea output reached 48.14 million tons, with a year - on - year growth of 13.3%, which put pressure on the urea price [18] - The impact of anti - involution policy expectations is limited. The proportion of truly old - fashioned production capacity is less than 5%, and the necessity of quickly clearing the remaining production capacity through administrative means is questionable. It is more likely to be cleared through the market [20][21] - In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure will still be large. It is estimated that the urea output will be 17.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 7%. The variables are the possible extension of the gas - head device maintenance season and the impact of rising coal prices on marginal production capacity [24][25] 3. Agricultural Demand Has No Strong Driving Force, and Off - Season Storage May Only Play a Bottom - Supporting Role 3.1 Recent Compound Fertilizer Production and Sales Data Further Confirm the Overall Demand Front - Loading Problem This Year - The demand for urea in the first half of the year was higher than expected, mainly due to demand front - loading. The production and sales data of compound fertilizers from January to April were better than those in the same period of previous years, while the data from May to August were worse, indicating that the demand for compound fertilizers was overdrawn before May [34][35] 3.2 Off - Season Storage Can Only Play a Bottom - Supporting Role, and Industrial Demand Remains Weak - The off - season storage policy this year is basically the same as last year. The enthusiasm for tendering may be high, but the procurement rhythm is expected to be scattered, mainly playing a bottom - supporting role [38][39] - The industrial demand for urea such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin is expected to be relatively stable in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to have obvious improvement [42] 4. Low Inventory in India Boosts the Scale of Indian Tenders, Pay Attention to Export Regulation in the Fourth Quarter - The international urea price is stronger than expected. India's urea production from January to August decreased by 6% year - on - year, and its inventory is less than 50% of the same period last year, so it has carried out a large number of import tenders [48][49] - The excess supply situation in China has not changed. Although China's supply in Indian tenders has increased, it is still within the quota system, which has not changed the domestic inventory accumulation situation [53][55] - It is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be new changes in China's export policy in the fourth quarter, such as the issuance of new quotas and the extension of the export window period [57][58] 5. Investment Suggestions - In the fourth quarter, the key contradiction is the continuous increase in urea factory inventory. The supply pressure will increase, and the demand is difficult to pick up significantly, so the key lies in exports [62] - The operating range of the 2601 contract is estimated to be 1580 - 1800 yuan/ton, and it is recommended that the off - season storage subjects disperse their storage rhythm [63]

尿素日报 | 2025-09-23 低价成交放量，关注节前收单情况 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-22，尿素主力收盘1660元/吨（-1）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1620 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1620元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1630元/吨（-20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-40 元/吨（-19）；河南基差：-40元/吨（-19）；江苏基差：-30元/吨（-19）；尿素生产利润90元/吨（-20），出口利润1121 元/吨（-41）。 供应端：截至2025-09-22，企业产能利用率81.21%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为116.53 万吨（+3.26），港口样本 库存量为51.60 万吨（-3.34）。 需求端：截至2025-09-22，复合肥产能利用率38.63%（+0.81%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为56.78%（+1.40%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.70）。 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，现货价格跌破前低后成交好转，现货价格震荡偏弱，关注节前收单情绪。目前 部分地区农业秋季肥开始，淡季储备开始较少，工业需求复合肥拿货积极性不 ...

Core Insights - The articles highlight the successful harvests across various regions in China, emphasizing the role of fertilizer companies in enhancing agricultural productivity. Group 1: Fertilizer Impact on Crop Yields - Farmers in Hunan Province using Hubei Xiangyun Chemical's health products achieved a yield of 750 kg per mu, an increase of 60 kg compared to previous years [1] - In Xinjiang, farmers applying Guizhou Phosphate Group's potassium dihydrogen phosphate saw significant cotton yields [3] - Yunnan farmers utilizing New Yangfeng Agricultural Technology's "Yangfeng Supreme" series fertilizers reported a 60% increase in yield for their stringless beans [5] - Farmers in Shandong using Zhushang Fertilizer's water-soluble fertilizers experienced stable yields and high sweetness in watermelons [9] - Inner Mongolia farmers applying Henan Xinlianxin Chemical's compound fertilizers achieved a potato yield of 1 ton per mu [11] - Farmers in Shanxi using Zhonghai Chemical's high water-soluble phosphorus fertilizers saw an increase in apple sugar content, allowing for early market entry [15] - Heilongjiang farmers using Zhonghai Chemical's compound fertilizers expect an additional 150 kg per mu for corn this year [16] - Garlic growers in Linyi achieved a yield of 3940 kg per mu using Luxi Group's garlic package fertilizer [18] Group 2: Regional Agricultural Success Stories - Hunan's peach growers using Hubei Yihua Group's Hai Dali fertilizer produced peaches with excellent texture and sweetness [3] - Farmers in the "Orange Capital" of Zigui using Hubei Huachuang Chemical's "Meinongba" water-soluble fertilizer reported improved fruit quality [7] - Cherry farmers in Dalian using Yuntianhua Group's products saw enhancements in fruit shape, weight, and taste, aiding local quality transformation [13]

【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 23 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | and the comments of | | --- | | | 尿素：周内走势关注现货节前收单，趋势仍偏 弱 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan@gtht.com | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 （01合约） | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,660 | 1,661 | - 1 1077 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,658 | 1,666 | - 8 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 113,802 | 112,725 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 307,396 | 297,254 | 10142 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,535 | 7,810 | -275 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 377,421 | 375,627 ...

成文日期：20250919 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:尿素 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 尿素期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20250919）尿素期货主力合约价格震荡下行，收盘价为 1661 元/吨，最高达 1676 元/吨，最低为 1656 元/吨,成交量 11.3 万 手，较上日减少 0.1 万手，持仓量 29.7 万手，较上日增加 1 万手。 图 1：尿素主力合约分时图 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 图 2：尿素主力合约日线图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 1.2 品种价格 表 1： 尿素期货当日行情表 20250919 | 合约名称 最新 涨幅 | | --- | | 尿素2510 | | 尿素2511 | | 尿素2601ª 1661 -10 -0.60% 297254 10431 112725 1672 1676 1656 | 图片来源:国金期货 wh6 2 现货市场 2.1 ...