Financial Services for Rural Reform - The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued guidelines to enhance financial services for rural reform and promote comprehensive rural revitalization [1] - The guidelines emphasize the establishment of standardized rural property transfer and transaction platforms, encouraging local exploration of management systems for agricultural facilities and livestock rights [1] - There is a focus on deepening financial services for collective forest rights reform, increasing loans for forest rights mortgages, and supporting rural collective economic organizations [1] Agricultural Financing and Innovation - The guidelines promote financial services for seed industry revitalization, particularly for major research platforms and core seed technology projects, with an emphasis on long-term, low-cost R&D loans [1] - There is an initiative to establish differentiated credit assessment systems for technology innovation enterprises in agriculture, including machinery and smart agriculture [1] - The guidelines also encourage the expansion of merger and acquisition loans to support market-oriented mergers and reorganizations in agricultural technology [1] Stock Market Implications - Several agricultural-related Hong Kong stocks are mentioned, including First Tractor Company (00038), October Rice Field (09676), and China Heart Link Fertilizer (01866), indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector [2]

报告摘要 事件： 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方唯一订阅号。其他任 何以光大证券研究所名义注册的、或含有"光大证券研究"、与光大证券研究所品牌名称等相关信息的订阅号均不是光大证 券研究所的官方订阅号。 7 月 18 日， 国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍 2025年上半年工业和信息化发展情况。工业和信 息化部总工程师谢少锋表示，将实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方 案，推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能，具体工作方案将在近期陆续发布。 点评： 尿素老旧装置占比较高，具备反内卷和老旧产能淘汰基础 我国改革开放前期，农业对化肥需求十分迫切， ...

能源化工研发报告 大宗商品研究 尿素日报 2025 年 7 月 24 日 尿素日报 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价明稳暗降，成交乏力。山东 地区主流出厂报价暂稳，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充 裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单 成交转弱，待发消耗，预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价暂稳， 贸易商观望，收单量下滑，成交乏力，待发充裕，预计出厂报价暂稳为主。交割区周边 区域出厂价明稳暗降，区内市场氛围表现降温，东北地区追肥结束，交投情绪一般，农 业刚需采购，期现商和贸易商出货，外发订单量下滑，新单成交平平，待发充裕，预计 出厂价下跌为主。部分装置检修，日均产量降至 19 万吨附近，仍位于同期最高水平。 需求端，新一轮印标价格公布，东海岸最低投标价 495 美元/吨，西海岸最低投标价 494 美元/吨，当前国内外价差较大，在出口放松背景下，对国内市场情绪有一定提振。华 中、华北地区复合肥积极性不高，基层暂无备货医院，复合肥厂开工率略有提升，但尿 素库存可用天数在一周后，对原料采购情绪不高。本周，尿素 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yara International's stock has experienced a decline, with a current price of 31.74 yuan and a rolling PE ratio of 23.39 times, which is below the industry average of 26.28 times [1][2] - Yara International's market capitalization stands at 29.329 billion yuan, ranking 16th in the fertilizer industry based on PE ratio [1][2] - The company has seen a net outflow of main funds amounting to 50.21 million yuan on July 24, with a total outflow of 220.81 million yuan over the past five days [1] Group 2 - Yara International's main business includes potassium salt mining, potassium fertilizer production, and sales, with key products being potassium chloride and brine [1] - The latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 shows that the company achieved an operating income of 1.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.47%, and a net profit of 384 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 373.53%, with a gross profit margin of 54.12% [1]

2025 年 07 月 24 日 尿素：成交转弱，高位回落，步入震荡格局 | | 杨鈜汉 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 项 | 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 （09合约） | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,773 | 1,817 | -44 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,788 | 1,806 | -18 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 288,338 | 314,653 | -26315 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 180,800 | 191,764 | -10964 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 2,523 | 2,523 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,030,856 | 1,136,221 | -10536 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, policy expectations outweigh fundamental impacts on the urea market. Although the policy of promoting stable growth in key industries may boost the market sentiment, the supply pressure of urea remains high, and the price may face significant downward pressure if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot be supplemented [1]. 3. Content Summary by Category a. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 23, compared with July 22, UR01 closed at 1779 yuan/ton (-30 yuan or -1.66%), UR05 at 1793 yuan/ton (-22 yuan or -1.21%), UR09 at 1773 yuan/ton (-44 yuan or -2.42%), and Shandong spot - related futures at 1830 yuan/ton (-10 yuan or -0.54%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Shanxi's spot price dropped to 1690 yuan/ton (-30 yuan or -1.74%), while prices in Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained stable. The price of melamine in Jiangsu decreased to 5100 yuan/ton (-100 yuan or -1.92%), while most downstream prices such as compound fertilizer prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged [1]. b. Market Information - **Futures Contract Details**: The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1827 yuan/ton, with a high of 1827 yuan/ton, a low of 1760 yuan/ton, a close of 1773 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 1788 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 180,800 lots [1]. c. Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: The daily production of urea is close to 200,000 tons, at a high level, and the enterprise inventory is about 750,000 tons, with a slight de - stocking mainly due to increased port collection [1]. - **Demand**: The top - dressing demand in July will support the price, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is insufficient, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer industry in China, focusing on market dynamics, production challenges, and future outlooks [1][2][3]. Key Points on Nitrogen Fertilizer (Urea) - The domestic urea market faces challenges such as overcapacity, high proportion of outdated production capacity, significant cost differences, and export volume impacting pricing. However, increased export quotas may help mitigate losses from supply stability [1][6]. - Coal price fluctuations in the first half of the year reduced costs for some coal chemical products, altering the cost curve between gas-based and oil-based urea, with gas-based urea showing price resilience [1][8]. - The government has set demands for single nutrient fertilizers to not increase or even decrease, but food security strategies and policies supporting land restoration are expected to sustain fertilizer demand. The per-acre fertilizer application in China is nearing levels seen in developed countries, indicating overall demand growth [1][10]. - The urea supply pressure is slightly better than initial expectations for the year, with an estimated release of about 2 million tons in the first half and an additional 1-2 million tons expected in the second half [10]. Key Points on Phosphate Fertilizer - The phosphate market is under pressure from rising raw material prices and domestic supply stabilization requirements. The first quarter saw low export volumes due to delayed export quotas, but limited new capacity and high overseas phosphate prices are expected to improve company performance in the third quarter [1][11]. - Phosphate rock pricing is crucial for the profitability of integrated phosphate fertilizer companies, with expectations for high prices to persist throughout the year, allowing for strong profit margins [1][14]. - The phosphate industry is experiencing tight supply-demand conditions, influenced by high raw material prices and concentrated procurement demands from exporting countries. This has led to a relative shortage in overseas phosphate supply, supporting phosphate prices [1][13]. Challenges and Opportunities - The nitrogen fertilizer industry faces four main challenges: overcapacity, a significant proportion of outdated production capacity, notable differences in profitability across production methods, and the impact of export volumes on domestic demand and pricing [6]. - The phosphate industry is also grappling with challenges such as high raw material prices and the need for domestic supply stabilization, but there are opportunities for improved performance due to concentrated export activities in the third quarter [11][12]. Future Outlook - The outlook for nitrogen fertilizer remains cautiously optimistic despite potential price fluctuations, while the phosphate fertilizer environment appears stable with a positive trend in performance [3][16]. - The overall market environment for both nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers is expected to remain favorable, with no significant new capacity pressures or disruptions to market order anticipated [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the urea industry [12]. Core Insights - The urea industry is expected to continue its prosperous operation under a balanced supply and demand growth scenario in the coming years, despite strict export policies in China leading to price differentiation between domestic and international markets [3][9]. Summary by Sections Urea: Core Nutrient for Crop Growth - Urea is an organic compound composed of carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and hydrogen, primarily used as nitrogen fertilizer for plants and in various industrial applications [6][20]. Supply and Demand Steady Growth, Industry Prosperity Expected - Global nitrogen fertilizer consumption is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7% from 1961 to 2024, reaching 118 million tons in 2024, driven by population growth and food demand [7][37]. - The global nitrogen fertilizer production is also expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.7%, reaching 123 million tons in 2024, with supply and demand growth remaining balanced [8][56]. Domestic and International Urea Price Trends - Urea prices have shown significant fluctuations, with a reversal in 2025. The price gap between domestic and international markets has exceeded 1400 RMB/ton as of July 11, 2025, indicating a synchronized upward trend despite strict export policies [9][78]. Key Companies: Hualu Hengsheng & Yuntu Holdings - Hualu Hengsheng is leveraging its flexible industrial chain advantages and ongoing project expansions to enhance its growth potential. The company has a urea production capacity of 3.07 million tons per year [10][84]. - Yuntu Holdings focuses on the research, production, and sales of compound fertilizers, with significant urea capacity expansion planned, aiming to benefit from the industry's high prosperity [10][89].

Industry Overview - The urea industry in China has undergone three phases: rapid capacity expansion, supply-side structural reform to eliminate backward capacity, and currently, structural optimization with new capacity being released [1] - The industry is now in a phase where the elimination of backward capacity has slowed, and new capacities are being concentrated, leading to a more optimized capacity structure [1] - The profitability of the urea industry remains high, with fixed bed plants maintaining profits above 300 yuan per ton, and new coal chemical profits significantly exceeding those of fixed bed plants [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic demand for urea has significantly increased, with projections indicating a demand of 59 million tons by 2025, an increase of approximately 1.5 million tons from 2015 [2] - The government has implemented policies to ensure supply, including halting exports and requiring domestic producers to maximize output during peak demand seasons [2] - Current urea production levels are at a ten-year high, with daily production exceeding 190,000 tons, and inventories at 741,000 tons, which is 500,000 tons higher year-on-year [5] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - High supply levels are expected to suppress the potential for significant price increases in the urea market [5] - Demand for urea is currently not supporting sustained price increases, as summer agricultural demand has ended and fall agricultural needs are primarily for high-phosphorus fertilizers [6] - Overall, the current market conditions suggest limited upside for urea prices, with potential variables including coal price fluctuations and future export activity [7]

供应端：截至2025-07-22，企业产能利用率85.08%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为89.55 万吨（-7.22），港口样本 库存量为54.10 万吨（+5.20）。 需求端：截至2025-07-22，复合肥产能利用率32.55%（+2.72%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.24%（+1.68%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.06日（+0.12）。 宏观情绪持续向好，化工板块整体上涨，尿素盘面走强。尿素开工高位运行，供应端压力持续，中盈装置计划近 期检修，部分装置下旬仍有检修计划，预计将缓解部分供应压力。下游农业需求推进放缓，复合肥工业开工率提 升缓慢，其他工业需求维持弱势，下游刚需采购为主。出口将有序推进，集港意愿提升，港口库存持续提升，尿 素上游工厂库存走低。 策略 尿素日报 | 2025-07-23 情绪氛围影响，尿素持续上涨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-22，尿素主力收盘1817元/吨（+5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1850 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1840元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1840元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：23 元/吨（ ...