Group 1 - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in September, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.3%, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.0%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [1][2] - Food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI increase, while clothing prices increased by 0.8% due to seasonal changes [1] - The producer price index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][3] Group 2 - The year-on-year decline in CPI of 0.3% was primarily influenced by a negative carryover effect of approximately 0.8 percentage points, while new price changes contributed about 0.5 percentage points [2] - The PPI's month-on-month stability is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries, with coal processing prices rising by 3.8% and coal mining prices increasing by 2.5% [2][3] - The narrowing year-on-year decline in PPI is a result of ongoing macroeconomic policy effects, with some industries experiencing positive price changes due to market competition and structural upgrades [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental supply - demand of ethylene glycol has a marginal improvement, but the valuation is under pressure due to the inventory accumulation expectation. The demand has a marginal improvement with the arrival of winter orders, but the peak - season is not prosperous. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro - sentiment, with the range moving down to 3850 - 4200. There may be strong supply - side support around 3700. [1] - In the short term, the unilateral price will fluctuate with the macro - situation. The port's visible inventory is at a historical low, and the supply elasticity is limited. The valuation is difficult to compress further without new downward drivers. [2] - In the long run, the supply - demand will enter an inventory accumulation channel, and the valuation will be under long - term pressure. Macro - sentiment will repeatedly dominate the commodity market, and future events may provide new price support. [5] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The fundamental supply - demand of ethylene glycol has a marginal improvement, but the valuation is under pressure. The demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season is not prosperous. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and there may be supply - side support around 3700. [1] - Short - term trading logic: The price will fluctuate with the macro - situation, the port inventory is low, and the supply elasticity is limited. [2] - Long - term trading expectation: Enter the inventory accumulation channel, and macro - events may provide price support. [5] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Base - difference strategy: Consider positive arbitrage when the 11 - lower paper cargo +65 or below. [9] - Recent strategy: The EG01 put option selling strategy and the 10 - lower paper cargo cash - futures positive arbitrage strategy are being held. [12] 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Trend judgment: Wide - range fluctuation. - Price range: EG2601 fluctuates between 3850 - 4200. - Strategy recommendations: Sell EG01 put options and call options at appropriate price ranges. [11] 1.4 Basic Data Overview - MEG key data shows changes in price, profit, inventory, and开工 rate from October 10 to October 17, 2025. [14] - Polyester key data shows changes in price, profit, inventory, and开工 rate from October 10 to October 17, 2025. [15] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: The US adds port service fees to Chinese - related ships, which may increase the cost of ethane - made ethylene glycol. [17] - Bearish information: The US will impose new tariffs on Chinese - imported goods from November 1. [18] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events Attention - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, Sino - US negotiations, polyester load, terminal orders, and the implementation of plant maintenance and restart plans. [19] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The ethylene glycol futures price has been falling, showing a strong bearish trend in the technical aspect. [20] - Capital movement: The net short - position of key seats first decreased and then increased, indicating that the main capital is cautiously bearish on the future. [23] - Month - difference structure: The near - term 11 contract maintains a premium over 01, and the structure after 01 is C, indicating that the near - term spot contradiction is not resolved. [25] - Base - difference structure: The main base - difference of ethylene glycol has strengthened slightly, and the near - term base - difference has strong support before the end of October. [28] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Cost Tracking - The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene have changed, which affects the cost of ethylene glycol production. [32] 4.2 Upstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - The production profits of various routes and import profits of ethylene glycol have changed, and the profitability of different varieties' switching has also changed. [39][44] 4.3 Downstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - The profits of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, short - fiber, and bottle - chip have changed, and the processing fees have been repaired. [47] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - demand balance sheet of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025 shows changes in production, import, export, demand, and inventory. [60] 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The total load of ethylene glycol has increased, and the coal - made load has also increased. The profit of coal - made marginal devices is under pressure, and the port inventory is expected to maintain a tight balance. [61] 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The polyester load remains stable, the demand has a marginal improvement but the peak - season is not prosperous. The downstream inventory is in a dynamic balance, and the bottle - chip processing fee has been repaired. [72] Chapter 6: Industry Chain - Related Chart Appendix - The appendix provides a large number of charts related to the ethylene glycol, polyester, and terminal industries, including price, profit, load, inventory, and other aspects. [100][154][181]

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of China's polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) exports in 2023, with a volume of 135,500 tons from January to July, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.63% [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Inner Mongolia Shuangxin Environmental Protection Materials Co., Ltd. (Shuangxin Environmental) is one of the few companies in China with a full PVA industry chain layout, ranking among the top three in domestic production capacity [2] - The company plans to raise 1.865 billion yuan through its IPO to invest in energy-saving and efficiency-enhancing technology upgrades in the PVA industry chain, aligning with current domestic "dual carbon" policies [2][3] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Shuangxin Environmental has established an integrated industry chain centered on PVA, utilizing limestone, calcium carbide, and acetic acid to produce PVA and specialty fibers, with applications in fine chemicals, green construction, and more [4] - The company maintains a stable market share of approximately 17% in the domestic PVA market and 16% in the international specialty fiber market, making it the third-largest PVA producer in China [4] Group 3: Customer Relationships and Industry Dynamics - Downstream customers have strict requirements for PVA suppliers, leading to long-term partnerships with established suppliers like Shuangxin Environmental, which are less likely to be replaced [5] - The tightening of national environmental policies has led to the elimination of outdated production capacities, creating more opportunities for compliant companies and increasing industry concentration [6] Group 4: Environmental and Technological Advantages - Shuangxin Environmental has a differentiated advantage in green production, utilizing advanced closed large-scale calcium carbide furnaces to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions [7] - The company has received recognition for its energy-saving measures, including being the first in Ordos City to pass the national energy-saving standardization demonstration project [8] Group 5: Market Outlook - The PVA market is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, driven by demand for downstream products like PVB and PVA optical films [9][10] - The exit of outdated capacities is enhancing industry concentration, with China's PVA production capacity expected to be 1.096 million tons per year by mid-2025, a reduction of 250,000 tons since 2015 [10] Group 6: Policy Support - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have released a plan to guide the planning and layout of major petrochemical projects, aiming for high-quality industry development [12][13] Group 7: Future Opportunities - Shuangxin Environmental's IPO fundraising will support projects to produce high-value-added products like PVB resin and functional films, enhancing its market share in the PVA downstream sector [14]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guangwei Composites, has a comprehensive carbon fiber product system and is increasing its R&D expenditures to support new projects in carbon fiber and its applications [2]. Group 1: Carbon Fiber Products - The company can provide better material options for various applicable scenarios, including emerging application fields [2]. - There is no current plan to integrate Guangwei's fishing rod business into the listed company, as the fishing tackle business is developing healthily [2]. Group 2: R&D Expenditures - After a brief decline in R&D spending in previous years, the company has started to increase its R&D expenditures this year [2]. - The new round of R&D work is primarily focused on carbon fiber and carbon fiber prepreg research and application validation, supported by projects initiated by relevant departments or end-users [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company Guangwei Composite has confirmed its ongoing research and development efforts in T1200 and other high-performance carbon fibers, indicating a competitive stance in the market as Japan's Toray plans to mass-produce T1200 by 2026 [2] Group 1 - Investors have inquired about the company's technological reserves and research capabilities related to T1200 [2] - Guangwei Composite has acknowledged its R&D work includes T1200 among other advanced carbon fiber materials [2]

Group 1 - The company, Guangwei Composites (300699.SZ), is not directly engaged in the fishing tackle business but provides carbon fiber and prepreg materials to clients in that sector [2] - The fishing tackle business is an independent segment under Guangwei Group, the company's controlling shareholder [2] - There is a growing interest in outdoor sports and fishing industries due to supportive policies, but the company does not report explosive growth in fishing tackle sales [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is currently in the research and trial production phase for its PEEK prepreg materials, with limited applications in industrial robots and humanoid robot structural components [2] Group 1: Company Development - The PEEK prepreg material is still under development and trial production [2] - There is small batch production of PEEK prepreg materials in specific applications, such as motor rotors [2] - The company lacks a clear understanding of the end-use scenarios for other potential applications [2]

Core Points - Suzhou Longjie received the first round of inquiry questions from the Shanghai Stock Exchange regarding its application for a specific stock issuance on September 26, 2025 [1] - The company, along with intermediary institutions, is conducting thorough research and revisions on the application documents, including the fundraising prospectus, in response to the inquiry [1] - The issuance of A-shares is subject to approval by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and registration by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, with uncertainties regarding the final approval [1] Summary by Sections - **Application Process** - Suzhou Longjie submitted an application for a specific stock issuance and received an inquiry letter from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1] - The company is working with intermediaries to address the questions raised and revise the application documents accordingly [1] - **Regulatory Approval** - The stock issuance requires approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and registration from the China Securities Regulatory Commission before implementation [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the application will be approved and registered [1] - **Disclosure and Investor Awareness** - The company will disclose progress in accordance with regulations and remind investors to be aware of the associated risks [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Cautiously bearish [3] - PX: Neutral [4] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [5] Core Views - PTA supply and demand are nearly balanced, with expected inventory accumulation pressure, lacking drivers, and being significantly affected by crude oil costs and macro - tariff changes, and is short - term bearish [3]. - PX maintains a dynamic balance, with stable PXN. Short - term costs and macro factors are bearish, so it is short - term bearish [4]. - Ethylene glycol is priced based on expectations. A significant price drop is unlikely to lead to supply clearance, and it remains short - term bearish [5]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Overall Situation**: PTA supply devices are under planned maintenance, polyester load is high, and it is balanced from September to October. It has low valuation, lacks drivers, and short - term follows crude oil fluctuations [46]. - **Device Changes**: In October, many devices are under maintenance. For example, Hengli Dalian 1 was under planned maintenance on the 9th, YS New Materials reduced its load to 50 - 60% on the 7th and restarted on the 13th. YS Hainan, Dahua, and Zhongtai are under maintenance. Sichuan Energy Investment plans to have a two - week maintenance in late October. In November, Dushan, Ineos, and Honggang have maintenance plans [36][37]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased to 217 tons, up 3.8 tons, and the market basis is weakly stable [38]. - **Balance Sheet**: From September to October, supply and demand are balanced, and there is inventory accumulation pressure starting from November. It has low valuation, is greatly affected by crude oil and macro factors, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [46]. - **Downstream Demand**: After the holiday, the polyester start - up rate was 91.5%, remaining at a high level. The start - up rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces rebounded to 81%, 69%, and 78% respectively. After - holiday orders have poor sustainability [46]. - **Seat Net Position**: The net short position of foreign - funded futures company seats continues to increase [47]. PX - **Overall Situation**: PX maintains a dynamic balance in the fourth quarter, with supply expected to increase and demand being average. PXN remains around $220, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [71]. - **Device Changes**: Domestic PX load is 87.4%, and Asian load is 79.9%, both being relatively high. Domestically, Tianjin Petrochemical restarted, Daxie increased its load, and Wushi Petrochemical plans a two - week maintenance on October 14. In Asia, Malaysia Aromatics and Hanwha's 1.13 million - ton device restarted, Idemitsu's 260,000 - ton device is under maintenance. Taiwan FCFC's 720,000 - ton device plans a two - week maintenance, and Saudi Arabia plans a two - week maintenance in late October [67]. - **Balance Sheet**: PX maintains balance in the fourth quarter, with average expectations, lacking drivers, and short - term following oil price fluctuations [71]. - **Price Difference**: The spread between PX outer and inner markets narrows, the 11 - January spread of PX weakens, and TA01 processing fee remains stable at a low level [72]. - **Industrial Chain Spread**: The industrial chain profit weakens slightly. The PTA - crude oil spread is at a low level, PXN rebounds slightly, and PTA processing fee remains low [75]. Ethylene Glycol - **Overall Situation**: Ethylene glycol supply is under planned maintenance, demand load is high, the current situation is okay, but inventory accumulates after the holiday, and the expectation is poor. A significant price drop is unlikely to lead to supply feedback, and it is short - term bearish [119]. - **Device Changes**: The overall load is at a high level of 75%, and the syngas load is 78.8%. CNOOC Shell plans a one - week maintenance, Satellite restarts. Fulaian and Shenghong plan maintenance in late October. Yulong's 900,000 - ton device had a short - term shutdown during the holiday. In coal - chemical industry, Tianye and Shenhua Yulin restarted, Jianyuan and Meijin are under maintenance, and Tianying is expected to shut down until next year. Overseas, Shell in the US and Canada is under maintenance, Taiwan Nanya's 360,000 - ton device is under maintenance, Singapore Aster is under maintenance, and Petronas is shut down [88][104][119]. - **Inventory**: As of October 13, the inventory in East China's main ports is about 541,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34,000 tons. It is in the process of rising from a historically low level. The arrival volume is high, and the pick - up is average, so inventory is accumulating [116]. - **Balance Sheet**: The pressure on loose balance from September to October is not large, but inventory accumulates rapidly starting from November. The market trades based on expectations, lacks drivers, and is short - term bearish [119]. - **Profit**: Ethylene glycol profit is compressed. Oil - based production remains in loss, and coal - based production has limited loss [92]. - **Downstream Inventory**: Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 12.8 days (+0.3), and downstream inventory slightly increases [112].

Core Insights - In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, while remaining stable month-on-month for two consecutive months [1] Group 1: Producer Prices - The producer prices in the oil and gas extraction industry fell by 8.6% year-on-year and decreased by 2% month-on-month [1] - The prices in the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries dropped by 7.8% year-on-year and decreased by 0.8% month-on-month [1] - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year price decline of 5.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [1] - The chemical fiber manufacturing prices decreased by 7.9% year-on-year and fell by 0.2% month-on-month [1] Group 2: Purchasing Prices - In September, the industrial producer purchasing prices decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, while showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [1] - The prices for chemical raw materials fell by 5.5% year-on-year and decreased by 0.4% month-on-month [1] Group 3: Year-to-Date Averages - From January to September, the average industrial producer prices decreased by 2.8% compared to the same period last year, while the industrial producer purchasing prices fell by 3.2% [1]