[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 宝丰能源(600989.SH) 2025 年 04 月 10 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：基础化工/化学原料 当前价格(元)：15.48 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 郝逸璇 邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 宝丰能源 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -13.42 | -10.74 | -11.17 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -6.90 | -5.45 | -8.71 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：价差修复 产能释放，看好公司长期成长！》， 2025.3.12 2.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：进入产能 高速释放阶段！》，2024.12.26 3.《宝丰能源(600989 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月10日 宝丰能源（600989.SH） 一季度归母净利同环比提升，内蒙古烯烃逐步放量 |  | 公司研究·公司快评 |  | 基础化工·化学原料 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 余双雨 | 021-60375485 | yushuangyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523120001 | 事项： 事件：宝丰能源发布 2025 年一季度业绩预增公告。宁夏宝丰能源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"） 预计 2025 年一季度实现归母净利润 23.50 亿元至 25.00 亿元，与上年同期相比增加 9.29 亿元到 10.79 亿 元，同比增长 65.38%到 75.93%。业绩预增的主要原因系内蒙古 300 万吨/年烯烃项目投入试生产，烯烃产 品产销量显著增加；气化原料煤、动力煤价格回落，烯烃产品利润率 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baofeng Energy is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][15][21] Core Views - Baofeng Energy is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.35 billion to 2.50 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 65.38% to 75.93% [2][3] - The primary driver for this profit increase is the gradual ramp-up of the Inner Mongolia 3 million tons/year olefin project, which has significantly boosted olefin product output and sales [2][3] - The decline in the prices of gasification raw coal and thermal coal has improved the profit margins of olefin products [2][10] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit of 12.206 billion, 12.413 billion, and 13.267 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.66, 1.69, and 1.81 yuan [15][19] Production Capacity Expansion - The olefin production capacity is expected to increase from 2.2 million tons to 5.2 million tons per year, with ongoing projects in Ningdong Phase IV and Xinjiang [8][14] Cost Advantages - The average cost of coal-based olefins is projected to be 6,556 yuan/ton, while oil-based olefins are at 8,027 yuan/ton, giving coal-based olefins a cost advantage of approximately 1,471 yuan/ton [10][19]

Market Overview - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a significant rebound, with A-shares seeing over 5,200 stocks rise and the ChiNext Index increasing by over 4% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose over 6%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by over 4% [5] Economic Indicators - The postponement of tariffs by Trump is viewed as a clear positive for the market, contributing to the overall rise in the Asia-Pacific markets [1] - A survey by Harvard Business School professor Meg Rithmire indicated that 70% of the 40 members surveyed plan to maintain or increase their business with China, alleviating concerns about the impact of tariffs on corporate operations [7] Sector Performance - The cross-border payment sector saw active trading, with stocks like Feitian Chengxin and Qingdao Jinwang hitting the daily limit, while others rose over 10% [2] - The domestic consumption sector, particularly dairy and retail, showed strong performance with stocks like Yiyaton and Wangfujing hitting the daily limit [3] - The chemical raw materials sector also performed well, with Zhongyida hitting the daily limit and Hengguang shares rising over 10% [4] Corporate Strategies - Some listed companies are accelerating their overseas production capacity to mitigate cost pressures from tariffs, with plans to establish manufacturing bases in low-tariff countries [6] - Companies are also shifting sales markets towards Europe and India, utilizing Southeast Asian bases to meet regional demand [6] Investment Sentiment - The market's risk appetite has increased, as evidenced by the decline in government bond futures, indicating a more optimistic outlook among investors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the proactive measures taken by various companies and institutions in the Chinese capital market to stabilize and enhance investor confidence amid market fluctuations, indicating a strong belief in the long-term growth of the Chinese economy. Group 1: Company Actions - China Electronics Technology Group announced a stock buyback exceeding 20 billion yuan, demonstrating confidence in the long-term economic outlook [1] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. plans to repurchase shares worth no less than 40 billion yuan and up to 80 billion yuan for employee incentive plans [3] - Central Huijin, China Chengtong, and China Guoxin have also announced stock purchases to support the stability of the capital market [5] Group 2: Market Reactions - On April 7, following the Qingming Festival, Asian stock markets experienced declines, with significant drops in the Nikkei 225 and the KOSPI, leading to a collective pullback in A-shares [7] - The total trading volume in the market reached approximately 1.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 460 billion yuan from the previous trading day [7] - Analysts suggest that the A-share adjustment is primarily driven by overseas pessimism, with a potential overlap of easing policies between the US and China later this year [7] Group 3: Institutional Investment - Central Huijin has increased its holdings in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), indicating a commitment to maintaining market stability [10] - The trading volume of ETFs surged to 332.14 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of nearly 30% from the previous trading day [10][11] - Major ETFs, such as the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, recorded substantial trading volumes, with the highest reaching 243.15 billion yuan, the third-highest daily volume in its history [11] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Institutions are taking advantage of market volatility by increasing their positions in undervalued stocks, particularly in the consumer and healthcare sectors [14][17] - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors with lower correlation to tariff impacts, such as aerospace, animal health, and high-end manufacturing, as potential beneficiaries of policy changes [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance of the CSI Chemical Index, which has shown an increase of 1.62% in the past month and 4.43% in the past three months, with a year-to-date increase of 4.43% [1] - The CSI Chemical Index is categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries, providing a comprehensive analysis tool for investors [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Chemical Index include Wanhua Chemical (7.35%), Salt Lake Industry (3.68%), and Satellite Chemical (2.22%) among others [1] Group 2 - The market share of the CSI Chemical Index holdings is distributed as follows: Shenzhen Stock Exchange 52.02%, Shanghai Stock Exchange 47.73%, and Beijing Stock Exchange 0.24% [1] - The composition of the CSI Chemical Index holdings by industry shows that chemical products account for 33.16%, chemical raw materials 27.50%, and agricultural chemicals 19.69% [2] - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 22.57 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [2][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high net profit attributable to shareholders in Q4 2024, with a total revenue of RMB 456.48 billion for the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.03%. The net profit for the year was RMB 60.72 billion, up 26.77% year-on-year [4][10]. - The company's performance slightly exceeded expectations for 2024, driven by enhanced advantages in light hydrocarbon integration [4][6]. - The report highlights the company's strong competitive position in the C3 industry, with successful project launches and an increase in high-value product exports [9][10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of RMB 456.48 billion, with a net profit of RMB 60.72 billion, marking a 26.77% increase from the previous year [10]. - The fourth quarter alone saw revenues of RMB 133.73 billion, a 26.10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 23.79 billion, up 70.47% year-on-year [11]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 was RMB 12.26 billion, with projections for 2025-2027 showing continued growth in net profit and earnings per share [6][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects net profits of RMB 70.13 billion, RMB 95.67 billion, and RMB 114.35 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of RMB 2.08, RMB 2.84, and RMB 3.39 [6][12]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 10.8x, 7.9x, and 6.6x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][5][33] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 34.23 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.90 billion yuan, up 9% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue reached 9.05 billion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year and a 10% increase quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 0.85 billion yuan, up 32% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter [1][7] - The growth in revenue and net profit is primarily driven by increased product sales, supported by cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, as well as market expansion efforts [1][7] - The company is actively advancing multiple projects to enhance production capacity and market competitiveness, including successful launches of new production lines for high-end materials [17][26] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 15.1% and a net margin of 9.9%. The total expense ratio remained stable at 4.1% [1][7] - The main products' sales volumes increased year-on-year, with significant growth in the sales of new energy materials, fertilizers, organic amines, and acetic acid [1][9] Product Pricing - Overall product prices were weak in 2024, with nylon 6 prices stable and caprolactam prices rising due to strong cost support from raw materials [2][16] - Fertilizer prices, particularly urea, faced downward pressure due to seasonal demand fluctuations and market supply conditions [2][16] Future Outlook - The company has slightly adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 4.37 billion yuan and 4.65 billion yuan, respectively, due to weaker downstream demand and oversupply pressures in its product categories [3][33] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 2.06 yuan, 2.19 yuan, and 2.25 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.6, 10.0, and 9.7 [3][33]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The profit growth of industrial enterprises in China showed improvement in January-February 2025, with total profits down by 0.3% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous decline of 3.3% [6][7] - The revenue growth rate slightly declined, with the profit margin experiencing a seasonal drop greater than in previous years, influenced significantly by the Spring Festival [6][7] - The "Two New" policy has had a noticeable impact on certain industries, including automobiles and smart consumer devices, with expectations for gradual effects from policies supporting consumption upgrades [6][8] Group 2: Company Analysis - Satellite Chemical (002648) - Satellite Chemical reported a total revenue of 45.648 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.03%, and a net profit of 6.072 billion yuan, up 26.77% [9][10] - The company achieved significant growth in its new energy materials segment, with an 80.77% increase in revenue, while functional chemicals and high polymer materials also showed positive growth [10][11] - The successful launch of an 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project has strengthened the company's integrated supply chain, enhancing its market influence in the acrylic acid sector [11][12] Group 3: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Satellite Chemical from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 58.839 billion yuan, 68.197 billion yuan, and 78.811 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to reach 7.221 billion yuan, 9.246 billion yuan, and 11.778 billion yuan [13] - The company anticipates continuous improvement in product price differentials for its C2 and C3 products, contributing to its economic benefits [13]

昨晚评论席互动的时候聊到了网络实名制，我说起点是2013年，很多读者没概念，我说具体一点，最重要的措施是2013年9月1日施 行的《 电话用户真 实身份信息登记规定 》。 在这之前普通人可以随意购买电话卡，不用绑定个人信息，这既意味着可以匿名电话，也意味着可以匿名上网，因为上网的前置基础是电 话卡。电话卡实名登记后，互联网上的所有行为，本质上都可以定位到具体的个人。 我读高中、大学那会，去网吧交钱就给开机，后来才有了必须登记身份证这一环节，也是为了互联网行为穿透到个人。不然你在网吧上网 乱讲话，到时候警察查过来网吧老板吃不了兜着走。 至于全面落实网络实名制还要再晚两年，到了2015年3月互联网所有平台账号都落实实名制，从那以后你想给别人的评论点个赞，都要验 证过手机号才行。 至于读者留言说就算有了实名制，很多网民还是浑身戾气。那是因为这些人知道谁能开盒他，有戾气也要憋着，至于网民和网民之间没有 开盒的威胁，人性的阴暗面根本不用装 …… 今天a股成交1.19万亿，量能比昨天少少反弹了一些，今天小微盘股的表现不佳，个股中位数-0.63%，正好把昨天的+0.63%又跌了回 去。今天涨最好的还是化学原料+2.9%，这 ...