期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 05 日 对二甲苯：成本支撑，高位震荡市 PTA：成本支撑，高位震荡市 MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 所 PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7260 | 5110 | 3803 | 6514 | 432.2 | | 涨跌 | -56 | -34 | -44 | -50 | -3.9 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.77% | -0.66% | -1.14% | -0.76% | -0.89% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -36 | -44 | -194 | -54 | -1.7 | | 前日收盘价 | -28 | -36 | -187 | -70 | -0.6 | | 涨跌 | -8 | -8 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Trend is weak [1] - PTA: Trend is weak [1] - MEG: Hold long MEG and short PX positions [1] Core Views - For PX, close long positions, take long MEG and short PX positions, and pay attention to calendar spread reversal arbitrage positions due to the impact of the sharp decline in US MX prices [5] - For PTA, close long positions at high valuations and take long MEG and short PTA hedging positions [6] - For MEG, close short positions and reversal arbitrage positions as the supply - demand balance sheet improves in December, and take long MEG and short PX hedging positions [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On November 27, the PX price fell. The 12 - month MOPJ was estimated at $559/ton CFR. The PX valuation on November 27 was $826/ton, down $3 from November 26 [3] - PTA: The 250 - million - ton PTA device of Honggang restarted, the 120 - million - ton PTA device of Zhongtai increased its load. The PTA load was adjusted to 73.7% by Thursday, and the current PTA operating rate was around 79.3% [3] - MEG: A 90 - million - ton/year MEG device in East China restarted, and another 100 - million - ton/year MEG device in East China plans to shut down in early December [3] Production and Operation Data - As of November 27, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 73.13% (up 2.46% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 72.03% (up 6.2% from the previous period) [5] - As of Thursday this week, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland was around 91.6%, and the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 75% [5] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1 - PTA trend intensity: - 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [5] Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6718, 4632, 3873, 6162, and 447.6 respectively, with changes of - 56, - 52, - 23, - 102, and 2.6, and percentage changes of - 0.83%, - 1.11%, - 0.59%, - 1.63%, and 0.58% [2] - Spot: The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were $826.33/ton, 4615 yuan/ton, 3889 yuan/ton, $566/ton, and $64.28/barrel respectively, with changes of - $2.67, - 32 yuan, - 21 yuan, $8.38, and $0.73 [2] - Spot processing fees: The PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, staple fiber processing fee, bottle chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 261.8, 195.49, 203.75, 57.31, and - 4.34 respectively, with changes of 2.09, 20.9, - 6.12, - 10.22, and 0 [2]

Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 1.494 billion, representing a growth of 0.15% year-on-year [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 119 million, an increase of 11.23% compared to the previous year [3] - The non-recurring net profit was CNY 109 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 12.11% [3] Business Structure and Strategy - The company focuses on three main businesses: polyester industrial yarn, plastic materials, and tire cord fabric, with polyester (PET) materials accounting for over 70% of the main business [4] - The differentiation strategy emphasizes high-performance materials and targets high-end customer segments, aiming to enhance R&D investment and market presence [4] - The company aims to optimize its product structure and improve operational efficiency to create sustainable value for shareholders [4] International Operations - The Vietnam factory maintained a strong performance in Q3 2025, with net profit increasing by 132% year-on-year [5] - The factory is currently in the construction phase for its first production line and is negotiating for the second phase projects [5] Capital Expenditure and Future Projects - The company plans to focus its capital expenditure over the next three years on expanding overseas production capacity and commercializing new materials developed in its research institute [6] - Resource allocation will center around polyester industrial yarn, tire cord fabric, and new materials [6] New Materials Development - Projects in new materials are progressing, with a focus on high-performance fibers for applications in composite materials and hydrogen energy [7] - The company is developing various products, including PPS long fibers and LCP fibers, with several small batch orders already in place [7] Industry Trends and Challenges - The industry faces technical barriers related to equipment, processes, and product certifications, which create natural barriers to entry [8] - The trend towards lightweight, environmentally friendly, and intelligent materials is expected to drive growth in the high-performance fiber sector [8] - The company is actively pursuing a sustainable development strategy to enhance its product offerings and improve profit margins [8]

二、主要产品和原材料的价格变动情况 主要产品 2025 年 7-9 月 产量(吨) 2025 年 7-9 月 销量(吨) 2025 年 7-9 月 营业收入 （元） 尼龙 6 切片 69,407.79 57,078.00 537,543,843.14 锦纶 6 帘子布 13,268.46 13,049.53 217,080,056.10 涤纶帘子布 11,182.97 11,038.77 141,658,203.75 一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 证券代码：603382 证券简称：海阳科技 公告编号：2025-024 海阳科技股份有限公司 2025 年第三季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 海阳科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证券交易所《上海证 券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号行业信息披露：第十三号——化工》的有 关规定和披露要求，将公司 2025 年第三季度主要经营数据披露如下（均不含税）： 注：尼龙 6 切片销量低于产量，主要为部分产品作为内部下游产品原料所致。 ...

证券代码：603033 证券简称：三维股份 公告编号：2025-061 三维控股集团股份有限公司 2025 年第三季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 三维控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年第三季度主要 经营数据披露如下： 一、主要经营情况 | 业务类型 | 2025 | 年 7-9 | 月 | 本年累计 新签项 | | 同比增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 新签项目 数量（个） | | 新签合同额 | 目数量 （个） | 新签合同额 | （%） | | 基建建设 | 19 | | 1,140.57 | 51 | 12,981.04 | -59.71 | | 铁路 | 18 | | 903.28 | 49 | 12,563.15 | -59.22 | | 城市轨 其中 道交通 | | 1 | 237.29 | 2 | 417.89 | -70.33 | | 其他 | | | | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings and Core Views - Report's industry investment suggestions: PX to follow oil price rebound and short PXN at high levels; PTA to go long on PX and short on PTA with a unilateral upward trend; MEG to expect demand improvement and short - term rebound [1] - Core view on PX: Cost - supported, with a unilateral upward - biased trend. PXN has declined as expected, and factories are advised to hedge when the spread is between $240 - $250. Supply - demand is slightly tight [7] - Core view on PTA: Demand is expected to improve marginally, supported by oil prices. New devices are planned to start, and the entire industrial chain's consumption is expected to improve [7] - Core view on MEG: Reduce short positions. Pay attention to the restart of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical's 800,000 - ton device in November and potential unplanned maintenance of coal - based devices [8] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Data - PX futures: Yesterday's closing price was 6496, up 46 (0.71%); PX1 - 5 spread was - 24, unchanged [2] - PTA futures: Yesterday's closing price was 4508, up 26 (0.58%); PTA1 - 5 spread was - 64, unchanged [2] - MEG futures: Yesterday's closing price was 4095, up 44 (1.09%); MEG1 - 5 spread was - 68, up 2 [2] - PF futures: Yesterday's closing price was 6160, up 24 (0.39%); PF12 - 1 spread was - 28, down 4 [2] - SC futures: Yesterday's closing price was 459.7, up 12.5 (2.80%); SC11 - 12 spread was - 3.9, up 0.2 [2] Spot Data - PX spot: Yesterday's price was $812/ton, up $13.67 [2] - PTA spot: Yesterday's price was 4430 yuan/ton, up 60 [2] - MEG spot: Yesterday's price was 4186 yuan/ton, up 64 [2] - Naphtha MOPJ: Yesterday's price was $573.12/ton, up $21.62 [2] - Dated Brent: Yesterday's price was $65.53/barrel, up $3.33 [2] Spot Processing Fee Data - PX - naphtha spread: Yesterday's price was $246.17, up $6.34 [2] - PTA processing fee: Yesterday's price was 144.83 yuan/ton, down 7.3 [2] - Short - fiber processing fee: Yesterday's price was 380.77 yuan/ton, down 0.5 [2] - Bottle - chip processing fee: Yesterday's price was 154.12 yuan/ton, up 14.48 [2] - MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread: Yesterday's price was - 4.34, unchanged [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics Summary - Crude oil: Oil prices rose after the US imposed sanctions on major Russian oil companies [2][3] - PX: Asian PX prices rose on October 23, following the increase in crude oil prices and supported by the improved sentiment in the downstream polyester industry [2] - PTA: Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 - million - ton device reduced its load, and some devices resumed. The PTA load on Thursday was 78.8%, and the current operating rate is around 84.6% [5] - MEG: A 500,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China stopped temporarily for 3 - 5 days. As of October 23, the overall operating load in mainland China was 73.28% (down 3.87% from the previous period). Two US MEG devices with a total capacity of 380,000 tons/year restarted [6] - Polyester: This week, there were no significant changes in polyester devices, and the polyester load remained stable. As of Thursday, the domestic polyester load was around 91.4%. The operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 75%. The sales volume of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester filaments increased locally today, with an average sales rate of around 100%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers declined, with an average sales rate of 77% [6] Group 4: Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 [7] - PTA trend intensity: 1 [7] - MEG trend intensity: 1 [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive performance in the basic chemical industry, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index declining by 0.51%, while the Shenwan Oil and Petrochemical Index increased by 2.99%, outperforming the market by 3.50 percentage points [1][2] - The basic chemical index rose by 1.99%, also outperforming the market by 2.50 percentage points, ranking 5th and 8th among all Shenwan first-level industries respectively [1][2] - Key sub-sectors showing significant gains include phosphate fertilizers and phosphate chemicals (6.26%), titanium dioxide (4.23%), and oil and petrochemical trading (4.23%) [1][2] Industry Data Tracking - The report notes that the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have issued guidelines to address price disorder and maintain fair market competition [2] - Price tracking indicates that NYMEX natural gas saw a price increase of 10.88%, while dichloromethane experienced a decline of 3.44% [2] Investment Recommendations - The supply side is expected to undergo structural optimization, with a focus on sectors with elastic supply and competitive advantages [3][4] - The report suggests monitoring sectors like organic silicon, membrane materials, and dyeing, as well as leading companies such as Hoshine Silicon Industry and Zhejiang Longsheng [3][4] - New consumption trends and technological advancements are anticipated to drive demand for health additives and food additives, with companies like Bailong Chuangyuan and Jinhwa Industrial being highlighted [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The supply side is expected to undergo structural optimization, with a focus on selecting elastic and advantageous sectors. Domestic policies frequently emphasize supply-side requirements, while rising raw material costs and capacity shocks in Asia have led to shutdowns and capacity exits among European and American chemical companies. In the short term, geopolitical tensions have increased uncertainty in overseas chemical supply, but in the long term, China's chemical industry chain has a clear competitive advantage, rapidly filling gaps in the international supply chain and potentially reshaping the global chemical industry landscape [4][13] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with significant supply elasticity such as organic silicon, membrane materials, chlorine-alkali, and dyes, with key companies including Hoshine Silicon Industry, Xingfa Group, Dongcai Technology, Junzheng Group, Zhejiang Longsheng, and Runtu Co. Additionally, pay attention to relatively advantageous products or leading companies in sectors with weaker supply-demand dynamics, such as coal chemical leader Baofeng Energy, fluorochemical refrigerants related to leading company Juhua Co., and pesticide sector leaders like Yangnong Chemical, Guangxin Co., Runfeng Co., and Jiangshan Co. [4][13] Industry News and Policy Signals - On September 28, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement aimed at curbing price disorder and maintaining a good market price order. This includes measures such as assessing industry average costs, providing pricing references, enhancing price supervision, and standardizing bidding behaviors to guide operators in maintaining fair competition in the industry [12] Market Performance - For the week of October 9-10, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.51%, while the Shenwan Petroleum and Petrochemical Index rose by 2.99%, outperforming the market by 3.50 percentage points. The Shenwan Basic Chemical Index increased by 1.99%, outperforming the market by 2.50 percentage points, ranking 5th among all Shenwan first-level industries [15][17] Price Trends - The top price increases for the week of October 6-10, 2025, included NYMEX natural gas at 10.88%, anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in Jiangsu at 8.49%, and East China fluorite powder at 6.94%. Conversely, the largest price declines were seen in dichloromethane in Jiangsu at -3.44% and polyester industrial yarn at -2.30% [27][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The crude oil market has become pessimistic after OPEC+ plans to increase production, and traders generally expect lower oil prices. PX valuation has weakened, but the supply-demand pattern is tight due to upcoming new PTA plant launches and high polyester factory operation rates. It is recommended to partially close positions and focus on long PX short Brent. For PX, 11-01 calendar spread is in contango, and 1-5 is in backwardation. Also, for 01/05, long PX short PTA is suggested [10]. - For PTA, the cost side is weakening, and the valuation has declined. The support for PTA processing margin is weak. Despite the high polyester operation rate, PTA is in a destocking pattern, but there is significant future supply pressure. It is advisable to continue monitoring the 11-01 contango position and the PTA01/05 processing margin compression position [10]. - The market is focusing on the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical. The 01 contract faces significant pressure. It is recommended to focus on the 1-5 backwardation. Near - month spot has low inventory and strong basis. The unilateral price is in a weak and volatile market [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Prices - The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6778, 4688, 4302, 6370, and 489.2 respectively. The price changes were 6770, -10, -17, 6, and 3, with percentage changes of 0.12%, -0.21%, -0.39%, 0.09%, and 0.62% [2]. - The 11-1 spread of PX was 60, PTA 11-1 was -14, MEG 1-5 was -48, PF 11-12 was 14, and SC 11-12 was 1.7 [2]. Spot Prices - The spot price of PX CFR China was 838.33 dollars/ton, PTA in East China was 4620 yuan/ton, MEG spot was 4422 yuan/ton, naphtha MOPJ was 604 dollars/ton, and Dated Brent was 66.3 dollars/barrel [2]. - The PX - naphtha spread was 233.75 dollars/ton, PTA processing margin was 131.77 yuan/ton, short - fiber processing margin was 208.61 yuan/ton, bottle - chip processing margin was 69.09 yuan/ton, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread was -6.01 dollars/ton [2]. Market Dynamics - PX: The naphtha price declined slightly. PX prices were stable, with some spot transactions. The supply from the Middle East is limited due to strong gasoline demand. China's Fujia Dahua plans to shut down its 700,000 - ton/year No. 2 PX production line for maintenance [4][6]. - PTA: Some PTA plants in China restarted, and the PTA load reached 76.8%. A 110 - million - ton PTA plant in South China plans to conduct maintenance in mid - to - late October [7]. - MEG: The overall operating load in China was 74.91%, with the syngas - to - MEG operating load at 76.69%. An Xinjiang 150,000 - ton/year syngas - to - MEG plant shut down, and an Iranian 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant is restarting [7][8]. - Polyester: The operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was about 75%, and the overall polyester load in China reached about 91.6%. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were mixed [8]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG were all 0, indicating a neutral view [9].

Market Performance - The new materials sector experienced a decline this week, with the new materials index falling by 0.31%, underperforming the ChiNext index by 2.67% [1][2] - Over the past five trading days, the synthetic biology index decreased by 0.51%, semiconductor materials dropped by 4.74%, and specialty chemicals fell by 1.54%. In contrast, biodegradable plastics saw a slight increase of 0.02%, while industrial gases declined by 1.20%. Battery chemical products surged by 13.36% [1][2] Price Tracking - Amino acids prices showed the following changes: valine at 12,750 CNY/ton (-1.92%), arginine at 22,900 CNY/ton (-1.08%), tryptophan at 39,500 CNY/ton (-4.82%), and methionine at 22,050 CNY/ton (-0.68%) [3] - Prices for biodegradable materials remained stable: PLA (FY201 injection grade) at 17,800 CNY/ton, PLA (REVODE201 blow film grade) at 17,200 CNY/ton, PBS at 17,800 CNY/ton, and PBAT at 9,850 CNY/ton [3] - Vitamin prices were as follows: Vitamin A at 64,000 CNY/ton (unchanged), Vitamin E at 64,500 CNY/ton (-1.53%), Vitamin D3 at 227,500 CNY/ton (unchanged), calcium pantothenate at 40,500 CNY/ton (unchanged), and inositol at 26,000 CNY/ton (unchanged) [3] - Industrial gases and wet electronic chemicals prices remained unchanged: UPSSS grade hydrofluoric acid at 11,000 CNY/ton and EL grade hydrofluoric acid at 5,600 CNY/ton [3] - In the plastics and fibers category, carbon fiber remained at 83,750 CNY/ton (unchanged), polyester industrial yarn at 8,500 CNY/ton (-2.30%), and aramid at 102,700 CNY/ton (+17.62%). The export average price for polyester tire cord fabric in July was 16,353 CNY/ton (-0.61%) [3] Investment Opportunities - The DAC project has been included in Shanghai's 2025 key technology research and development plan, highlighting opportunities in domestic DAC adsorbents and equipment [4] - The recognition and strong support from various government levels for DAC technology mark a significant milestone in addressing climate change and promoting green energy development [5] - The establishment of a thousand-ton demonstration project will provide valuable engineering data and operational experience for future commercial projects, potentially enhancing DAC product performance and reducing capture costs [5] - Companies to watch for key adsorbent materials and related equipment include Blue Sky Technology, Jianlong Micro-Nano, Xizhuang Co., China Energy Construction, GCL-Poly, and United Water [5]