磷肥出口窗口期已至，磷肥高景气有望持续。根据中国化肥信息网，磷肥的出口指导具 体情况如下：1、2025年磷肥出口或将分阶段进行，首批集中在5-9月高峰期，第二批视国内 供需动态调整。2、法检时间缩减，预计半月左右时间。3、2025年磷肥出口配额总量比去年 减少。当前磷肥处于春耕后的淡季，出口有望缓解国内产能过剩问题，国际高价出口有望进 一步维持企业盈利水平，建议关注具备磷矿资源配套的大型磷化工企业：云天化。 化工安全事故频发引起重视，农药整体景气度有望抬升。5月27日，友道化学发生爆炸 事故，其生产的氯虫苯甲酰胺（商品名为"康宽"）的中间体合成涉及硝化、重氮化反应。硝 化反应是《首批重点监管的危险化工工艺目录》中18种危险工艺中的其中一种，国家应急管 理部在24年印发的《淘汰落后危险化学品安全生产工艺技术设备目录（第二批）》中已经明 确将间歇或半间歇釜式硝化工艺列为限制类，要求两年内改造为微通道反应器、管式反应器 或连续釜式硝化生产工艺。事故发生后，国务院高度重视并亲自挂牌督办，我们预计农药行 业或将展开全国范围的安全严查，涉及危险工艺的不合规产能或加快清退，助力农药行业景 气度回升。 风险提示：下游需求不及 ...

证券代码：603382 证券简称：海阳科技 公告编号：2025-015 海阳科技股份有限公司 2025 年第二季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 海阳科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证券交易所《上海证 券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号行业信息披露：第十三号——化工》的有 关规定和披露要求，将公司 2025 年第二季度主要经营数据披露如下（均不含税）： 注：尼龙 6 切片销量低于产量，主要为部分产品作为内部下游产品原料所致。 二、主要产品和原材料的价格变动情况 主要产品 2025 年 4-6 月 产量(吨) 2025 年 4-6 月 销量(吨) 2025 年 4-6 月 营业收入 （元） 尼龙 6 切片 78,948.54 64,824.65 643,445,912.48 锦纶 6 帘子布 12,078.51 12,468.46 221,147,343.70 涤纶帘子布 12,083.33 11,713.94 167,038,955.02 一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Trend is strong, recommend long on dips and focus on the 11-1 calendar spread [6] - PTA: Unilateral trend is strong, focus on the 9-1/10-1 calendar spread [7] - MEG: Trend is strong, exit the 9-1 reverse calendar spread [7] 2) Core Views - PX follows the rise of PTA due to unexpected PTA plant shutdowns and the recovery of polyester demand in the peak season, forming a positive feedback loop and showing a short - term strong trend [6] - PTA's 8 - 9 month balance sheet shows significant inventory drawdown due to an unexpected plant shutdown, and with the increase in polyester plant operation rate, it will enter a tight - balance pattern, so 9-1/10-1 calendar spreads are favorable [7] - MEG has a tight spot supply with high basis, and low recent arrivals benefit the near - month contracts, but there are clear upside pressures from future new capacity, so no short - term chasing of long positions [7] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On the 21st, the price of PX increased significantly, with two 10 - month Asian spot transactions at 854 and 855, and two 11 - month Asian spot transactions at 849 and 851. The estimated price of PX on the 21st was 854 dollars/ton, up 17 dollars from the 20th [3] - **PTA**: A 250 - million - ton PTA plant in South China shut down for maintenance on the 21st, and another 250 - million - ton plant is expected to shut down around August 23rd for over a month. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 71.6%, and the operating rate was around 77.4% [3] - **MEG**: As of August 21st, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.16% (up 6.77% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 81.25% (up 0.78% from the previous period) [5] - **Polyester**: There were no changes in the whole polyester plants this week, but the local plant loads increased, and the overall polyester load in mainland China was around 90% as of Thursday. The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable, and the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn recovered to around 71% [5] Price and Spread Data | Futures | PX | PTA | MEG | PF | SC | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6958 | 4860 | 4473 | 6614 | 490.9 | | Change | 6844 | 82 | - 4 | 110 | 8.1 | | Change Rate | 1.67% | 1.72% | - 0.09% | 1.69% | 1.68% | | Month Spread (Yesterday's Closing Price) | 162 | - 14 | - 54 | - 42 | - 6.2 | | Month Spread (Change) | 74 | 42 | - 4 | 20 | 0.7 | | Spot Price (Yesterday) | 852.33 dollars/ton | 4830 yuan/ton | 4518 yuan/ton | 584.5 dollars/ton | 68.12 dollars/barrel | | Spot Price (Change) | 14.33 | 144 | 16 | 9 | 0.57 | | Spot Processing Fee (Yesterday) | 255.5 | 197.31 | 175.93 | 27.32 | - 6.01 | | Spot Processing Fee (Change) | 2.5 | - 10.67 | 43.46 | 4.44 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] - PTA trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] - MEG trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] Sales Data - On the 21st, the overall sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were fair, with an average sales rate of around 70% by 3:30 pm [5] - On the 21st, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber improved, with an average sales rate of 89% by 3:00 pm [6]

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral trend is weakly bearish [7] - PTA: Unilateral trend is weakly bearish [7] - MEG: Unilateral trend is weakly bearish and in a weak oscillation [7] Core Views - PX: From late August, pay attention to the recovery of terminal orders, and PXN has short - term support [7] - PTA: Hold the mid - term strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA. With low processing fees, focus on unplanned production cuts and the positive spread of September - January contracts. Supply decreases while demand increases as polyester operating rate rises to 89.4% [7] - MEG: Hold the mid - term strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA. Keep the September - January spread in the range of - 50 to 0; pay attention to the reverse spread of January - May contracts. The sharp decline in coal prices yesterday had a negative impact on the chemical sector [7] Market Dynamics - **PX**: On August 14, the price of PX decreased. One October Asian spot was traded at $824. The end - of - session physical goods had no negotiation for September, and October was negotiated at $820/825, with an asking price of $825 for November. The PX price was affected by the weak sentiment in the broader commodity market despite the rise of crude oil and naphtha [3] - **PTA**: Some PTA producers are turning from loss to profit, and the tight supply of PX has slightly eased. This week, the 1.5 - million - ton Taihua and 2.25 - million - ton Yisheng plants stopped, while the 2.5 - million - ton Weilian Chemical and 2.2 - million - ton Jiaxing Petrochemical plants restarted. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 76.4%, and the operating rate was around 82.3% [4] - **MEG**: Two MEG plants in East China with a total annual capacity of 1.9 million tons stopped for 1 - 2 days due to an accident. As of August 14, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 66.39% (down 2.01% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 80.47% (up 5.34% from the previous period) [4][5] - **Polyester**: A 300,000 - ton polyester plant in Huzhou has restarted, mainly producing polyester filament. As of Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn has recovered to about 71%. The overall polyester load has increased, and as of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 89.4%. The sales of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 14th were weak overall, with an average sales rate of 30% - 40%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber on the 14th were average, with an average sales rate of 49% [5][6] Price and Spread Data | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Month Spread | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 6614 | - 26 | - 2.51% | PX9 - 1 | 72 | 80 | - 8 | | PTA Main | 4666 | - 39 | - 0.55% | PTA9 - 1 | - 26 | - 34 | 8 | | MEG Main | 4367 | - 76 | - 0.89% | MEG9 - 1 | - 47 | - 50 | 3 | | PF Main | 6338 | - 4 | - 1.18% | PF9 - 1 | - 74 | - 82 | 8 | | SC Main | 485.5 | - 4 | - 0.82% | SC9 - 10 | - 3.6 | - 1.1 | - 2.5 | | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China ($/ton) | 824 | 831 | - 7 | | PTA East China (yuan/ton) | 4646 | 4692 | - 46 | | MEG Spot | 4465 | 4488 | - 23 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 571 | 563.5 | 7.5 | | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | 68.28 | 66.91 | 1.38 | | Spot Processing Fee | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 261.17 | 268.67 | - 7.5 | | PTA Processing Fee | 187.85 | 162.08 | 25.77 | | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | 161.38 | 137.24 | 24.14 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | 42.77 | 19.7 | 23.07 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 6.01 | - 6.01 | 0 | [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Weak trend, hold 9 - 1 reverse calendar spread [2][9] - PTA: Go long on the calendar spread when it's low, weak unilateral trend [2][9] - MEG: Go long on MEG and short PTA/PX [2][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - PX supply - demand is marginally weak due to potential PTA unplanned maintenance reducing demand [9] - PTA has sufficient spot supply with weak basis, and low processing fees may lead to unplanned changes in operation rates. Current supply - demand is weak on both sides [9] - MEG may see a decline in imports in September due to overseas maintenance plans. It's stronger than PTA/PX, and traders focus on basis long - spread and calendar spread short - spread positions [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: On August 7, PX price fell following the decline in upstream crude oil and naphtha. The PX - naphtha spread widened. There were bids and offers but no deals [5][6] - **PTA**: A 120 - million - ton PTA plant in East China restarted. The PTA operation rate was around 76.2% on Thursday, and about 82.0% calculated by another method [6] - **MEG**: A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi started maintenance for about 20 days. The overall operation rate in mainland China was 68.40% (down 0.6% from the previous period) [6][7] - **Polyester**: The overall polyester operation rate in mainland China recovered to around 88.8%. The sales of polyester filaments and staple fibers on the 7th were weak [7] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1 (weak) [8] - PTA trend intensity: - 1 (weak) [8] - MEG trend intensity: 0 (neutral) [8] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Hold 9 - 1 reverse calendar spread as supply - demand remains weak [9] - **PTA**: Go long on the calendar spread when it's low. The unilateral price trend is weak due to current supply - demand situation [9] - **MEG**: Go long on MEG and short PTA. Pay attention to the ratio of warehouse receipts to positions during the contract roll - over [9]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector experienced a localized rebound on August 5, with notable performances from companies like Zhongyida and Youfu, indicating increased market interest in the sector [1] Company Summaries - Zhongyida, a producer of pentaerythritol, saw its stock hit the daily limit, leading the sector's gains. Its subsidiary, Chifeng Ruiyang, has an annual production capacity of 43,000 tons, ranking second in the domestic market [1] - Youfu specializes in the production and sales of polyester industrial yarn and has an annual production capacity of 300,000 tons, ranking third globally. Additionally, it produces 22,000 tons of coated tire fabric and 12,000 tons of coated canvas annually [1] Industry Trends - The chemical sector is currently in an adjustment phase, with companies focusing on technological upgrades and product enhancements to adapt to market changes. There is a general trend of strengthening cost control and improving operational efficiency among industry players [1] - The overall chemical sector showed signs of increased activity, with several companies like Jiangtian Chemical, Yida Co., Shandong Haihua, and Bohai Chemical also experiencing varying degrees of stock price increases [1]

Report Summary 1) Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - PX: The commodity market is weakening, and PX long - positions are being reduced. Suggest going long PX and short PTA01 contracts, and shorting PXN on rallies. The supply is marginally decreasing, but the cost side is strengthening, so PXN should be shorted on highs [1][8]. - PTA: The trend is weak. Consider basis reverse arbitrage and focus on long - short positive arbitrage for the monthly spread. The supply pressure is increasing, and the basis remains suitable for reverse arbitrage. With potential changes in device operations in August, the 9 - 1 monthly spread positive arbitrage can be considered. The polyester start - up may bottom out in the short term, and the processing fee of the 01 contract is trending down [1][8][9]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is still weak. Consider basis positive arbitrage and monthly spread reverse arbitrage. Supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts is a concern. The port inventory is falling, but the monthly spread is weak due to delivery pressure. The spread between ethylene glycol and plastics/styrene is at a high level, so consider shorting ethylene glycol and going long L. The supply is relatively loose, and some ethylene oxide devices may switch to produce ethylene glycol [1][9][10]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: Concerns about the lack of progress in Sino - US trade negotiations are increasing, pressuring the spot market. Supply tightness in August and September is expected to ease, and the PX - naphtha spread is weakening. The PX start - up rate in China is about 80.5%, and the PX price fell on July 31 [3][5]. - PTA: A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has a temporary shutdown, and some other devices have reduced loads. The PTA start - up rate is about 81.2%, and the capacity base has been adjusted to 8851.5 million tons since July 1, 2025 [5]. - MEG: A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol device in Inner Mongolia has a temporary shutdown, and a 400,000 - ton/year device in Xinjiang has restarted. The overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 69% (up 0.65% from the previous period), and the capacity base has been adjusted to 2917.5 million tons since June 1, 2025 [6]. - Polyester: Two polyester devices are under maintenance, and a new 300,000 - ton polyester device in Anhui has been put into production. The overall polyester load is fluctuating, and the start - up load of domestic polyester industrial yarn has dropped to about 67%. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on July 31 were weak, and the average sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were 53% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is - 1, indicating a weak trend [8]. Futures and Spot Data | Futures | PX | PTA | MEG | PF | SC | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's closing price | 6928 | 4808 | 4414 | 6464 | 531.3 | | Change | - 64 | - 48 | - 36 | - 36 | 2.7 | | Change rate | - 0.80% | - 0.99% | - 0.81% | - 0.55% | 0.51% | | Monthly spread (yesterday's closing price) | 64 | - 32 | - 27 | - 58 | 5.2 | | Monthly spread (change) | - 42 | - 34 | 1 | - 4 | - 1.9 | | Spot price (yesterday) | 859.33 (USD/ton) | 4826 (CNY/ton) | 4492 | 611 | 72.7 (USD/barrel) | | Spot price (change) | - 7 | - 32 | - 33 | 2.75 | - 0.85 | | Spot processing fee (yesterday) | 292.5 | 192.67 | 84.81 | - 22.45 | - 6.01 | | Spot processing fee (change) | 12.96 | - 5.64 | - 30.82 | 6.34 | 0 | [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical disturbances, expectations of peak demand season, and crude oil supply pressure are in a state of mutual restraint, causing international oil prices to fluctuate at high levels. If geopolitical risks ease later, the downward pressure on oil prices will increase. The maintenance of Tianjin Petrochemical's PX plant has led to a contraction in the weekly domestic supply, while the operating rate of downstream PTA has remained stable. Boosted by the overall strong atmosphere in the commodity market, the PX processing fee has recovered on a month - on - month basis. However, on Friday, the market sentiment significantly cooled down, and the PX price weakened sharply, but the supply - demand fundamentals still provide some support at the lower end [8]. - The strengthening of cost support is the main driver for the rise in PTA prices this week. From the perspective of supply - demand, there have been limited changes in the domestic supply side, but the downstream demand has remained weak. The supply - demand has maintained a weak pattern, and inventories have continued to accumulate. The short - term weak trend is expected to continue. Recently, the PTA spot processing fee has been compressed to a low level of around 200 yuan/ton. Many large - scale plants are planning maintenance in August, and it is expected that the supply will decline. There is an expectation of marginal improvement in the supply - demand side, and the downward support is expected to strengthen, but close attention still needs to be paid to the trends on the cost side [8]. - Driven by the cost side this week, ethylene glycol has shown a strong performance. The increase in the ethylene glycol price has led to a slight recovery in the oil - based production profit, but the significant increase in coal prices has resulted in little change in the coal - based production profit. Ethylene glycol currently maintains a tight balance. The port inventory has slightly decreased compared to last week but has rebounded compared to the beginning of the week, with a limited inventory accumulation amplitude. Two Saudi plants have recently restarted, and it is expected that the subsequent arrival volume will gradually increase. Currently, the fundamental contradictions of ethylene glycol itself are not prominent, and the driving force mainly comes from the cost side. On Friday night, as the market sentiment cooled down and the prices of crude oil and coal weakened sharply, ethylene glycol also followed the cost decline [8]. - Although the cost - side prices have continued to rise, the processing fees of polyester downstream products have weakened on a month - on - month basis, highlighting the insufficient demand - side carrying capacity and weak performance. Overall, the supply - demand contradictions of short - fiber itself are not prominent. The improvement in the commodity atmosphere has stimulated short - term replenishment by downstream customers, and the inventory has decreased. Its price mainly fluctuates following the raw materials. The price of bottle - grade polyester chips has been oscillating strongly supported by the cost. Its operating rate has slightly decreased, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited. The short - term trend also mainly follows the upstream costs [8]. - The weak situation of the polyester industry itself remains unchanged. The polyester operating rate has continuously declined, and the weaving operating rate and textile orders have only maintained a low - level operation. The fundamental support is weak, and the expectations are also weak. This week, driven by the overall commodity sentiment, the prices of polyester industry chain products have shown a strong performance. However, on Friday night, the market sentiment declined. In terms of operation, attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunities that may arise when the fundamental driving force and price trend return to synchronization [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes of Polyester Industry Chain Products - From July 18th to July 25th, NYMEX crude oil futures decreased from $66.03/barrel to $65.07/barrel, a decrease of $0.96/barrel or 1.5%; ICE Brent crude oil futures decreased from $69.23/barrel to $67.6/barrel, a decrease of $1.63/barrel or 2.4%; domestic crude oil futures decreased from 532 yuan/barrel to 512.9 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 19.1 yuan/barrel or 3.6%. The price of CFR naphtha in Japan decreased slightly from $576.38/ton to $576.13/ton, a decrease of $0.25/ton or 0.0%. The price of CFR PX in China increased from 838.33 yuan/ton to 855.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.34 yuan/ton or 2.1%. The spot price of PTA in East China increased from 4782 yuan/ton to 4900 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton or 2.5%. The spot price of ethylene glycol in East China increased from 4429 yuan/ton to 4579 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton or 3.4%. The spot price of polyester chips in East China increased from 5825 yuan/ton to 5925 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 1.7%. The spot price of polyester staple fiber in East China increased from 6570 yuan/ton to 6615 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton or 0.7%. The spot price of polyester bottle - grade chips in East China increased from 5950 yuan/ton to 6080 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton or 2.2%. The spot price of polyester filament POY in East China increased from 6550 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton or 2.3%. The spot price of polyester filament FDY in East China increased from 7800 yuan/ton to 7925 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton or 1.6%. The spot price of polyester filament DTY in East China increased from 6800 yuan/ton to 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton or 2.9%. The spot price of polyester industrial yarn in East China decreased from 9000 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton or 3.3%. The prices of 300T 50D*50D Ditaff and 210T 75D*75D Chunyafang remained unchanged [2]. PX Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: During the week, Tianjin Petrochemical carried out maintenance. The two 1.6 - million - ton units of Fuhai Chuang, one 1 - million - ton unit of Weilian Chemical, and one 700,000 - ton unit of Fujia Dahua continued maintenance. This week, the domestic PX output was 694,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42%. The weekly average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 82.81%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35% [3]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the PX supply - demand difference has generally shown a negative value, and the inventory has been decreasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the PX supply - demand difference was - 99,200 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.7244 million tons [3]. PTA Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: There were no new changes in domestic plants during the week, and the domestic PTA supply remained stable. From July 18th to July 24th, 2025, the domestic PTA output was 1.445 million tons, the same as last week, and 39,400 tons higher than the same period last year. The weekly average domestic PTA capacity utilization rate was 80.76%, the same as last week and 0.97% higher than the same period last year [4]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the PTA supply - demand difference has been positive in most periods, and the inventory has been gradually increasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the PTA supply - demand difference was 45,500 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.8038 million tons [4]. MEG Supply - Demand Balance - Supply changes: This week, the load of some units in the petroleum - integrated plants was slightly adjusted, with no maintenance or restart. In terms of coal - chemical industry, Yangmei Shouyang's plant restarted after maintenance, Inner Mongolia Jinyuan's plant restarted after a short - term shutdown, and the load of Xinjiang Zhongkun's plant increased, as did the load of Shanxi Meijin. This week, the total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 59.20%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. This week, the weekly output of Chinese ethylene glycol enterprises was 359,900 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.22% [5]. - Weekly balance: From May 9th, 2025, to August 1st, 2025 (forecast), the MEG supply - demand difference has generally been negative, and the inventory has been decreasing. For example, on July 25th, 2025, the MEG supply - demand difference was - 36,800 tons, and the ending inventory was 1.8424 million tons [6]. Polyester Products - Polyester staple fiber: Downstream replenishment has stimulated short - fiber inventory reduction, but the spot processing fee has continued to decline. The short - fiber operating rate has decreased, and the output has decreased by 3,100 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 1.90% [57][66]. - Polyester bottle - grade chips: The raw material prices have shown a strong performance, and the bottle - grade chips processing fee has been slightly compressed. The operating rate has slightly decreased, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited [71]. - Polyester, filament, weaving, and dyeing: The terminal demand remains weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The filament operating rate has decreased, and the polyester operating rate has decreased by 0.29% month - on - month. The filament production and sales have increased significantly, and the inventory has decreased rapidly. The filament production profit has recovered. The textile enterprise operating rate has continuously decreased, and the downstream overall performance has been weak. The pure - polyester yarn operating rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased [81][82][85].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the polyester industrial yarn industry [12]. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industrial yarn industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in market conditions due to a slowdown in supply and steady growth in demand, with potential investment opportunities in related companies [10][54]. Demand Side Summary - Domestic demand for polyester industrial yarn is steadily increasing, with a projected apparent consumption of 1.773 million tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.1% and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% from 2014 to 2024 [7][24]. - The export volume is expected to reach 560,000 tons in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% and a CAGR of 4.4% from 2014 to 2024 [7][29]. - The main application areas include automotive (45% share) and non-automotive sectors (55% share), with growth driven by the automotive industry and diversification into new fields such as deep-sea technology [22][24]. Supply Side Summary - China holds over 70% of the global polyester industrial yarn production capacity, with an annual capacity of 3.34 million tons expected by the end of 2024 [8][35]. - The capacity expansion phase has ended, with no new capacity expected after 2023, and the industry concentration is increasing due to the exit of smaller players [8][37]. - The top five companies in the industry account for 65.2% of the market share, indicating a high level of concentration [8][37]. Market Conditions Summary - The market conditions for polyester industrial yarn are showing signs of recovery, with prices for ordinary yarn reaching 9,050 yuan per ton as of July 1, 2025, reflecting a 7.7% increase since the beginning of 2025 [9][46]. - The profit margins for melt-spinning and chip-spinning processes have also improved significantly, indicating a positive trend in the industry's profitability [9][46]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities within the polyester industrial yarn sector, highlighting the favorable supply-demand dynamics and the potential for gradual market recovery [10][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, both domestic and imported PX supplies are tight, leading to a continuous upward trend. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on SC. The PXN spread has expanded to $261/ton, and short - term calendar spread arbitrage (buy near - term and sell far - term) is advisable [7][8]. - PTA: Supported by cost factors, both the single - side position and the calendar and basis spreads are strong. Despite increased maintenance by polyester bottle - chip and short - fiber factories, PTA supply remains tight, causing the basis to strengthen significantly [8]. - MEG: With the shutdown of Iranian ethylene glycol plants, MEG is expected to be in a short - term upward - trending and volatile state. It is recommended to reduce the position of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Attention should be paid to the operating status and shipping changes of Iranian ethylene glycol plants under the Israel - Iran conflict [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Variation**: On June 19, 2025, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 7094, 4988, 4539, 6794, and 3998 respectively, with daily changes of 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.6%, and 2.0% [1]. - **Calendar Spread**: The PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB07 calendar spreads on June 19 were 272, 206, 23, 74, and - 469 respectively, with daily changes of 52, 38, 7, 28, and 50 [1]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA07 - PF07, PF07 processing margin, and PTA09 - LU09 spreads on June 19 were 377, 449, - 1636, 887, and 1040 respectively, with daily changes of 5, 6, - 26, 20, and 12 [1]. - **Basis and Other Spreads**: The PX, PTA, MEG, PF basis, and PX - naphtha spreads on June 19 were 251, 270, 85, - 4, and 255 respectively, with daily changes of - 106, - 60, - 1, - 48, and no change [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 19, the PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts were 37468, 6052, 5464, 0, and 4029000 respectively, with daily changes of - 43123, no change, no change, - 5, and no change [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX Market**: On June 19, the PX price continued to rise, with an estimated price of $904/ton, up $16 from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread expanded to $261.38/ton. The PTA operating rate in China dropped from 82.6% to 79.1% due to plant maintenance, while the polyester operating rate was estimated at 92%, a 1.2% increase from the previous week [3][4]. - **PTA Market**: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the Northeast has shut down, and a 4.5 - million - ton plant in the South is gradually shutting down for about two months of maintenance. The PTA operating rate has dropped, and the Honggang Petrochemical Phase 3 2.5 - million - ton plant has started production and is operating at over 90% capacity [4][5]. - **MEG Market**: Two ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with a combined capacity of 1.4 million tons/year are scheduled to restart soon. As of June 19, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 70.33% (up 4.08% from the previous period), and a new 600,000 - ton/year synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol plant in Sichuan has been put into production [5][6]. - **Polyester Market**: The operating rate of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers has increased slightly, with an overall theoretical operating rate of about 73.2%. As of Thursday, the polyester operating rate in mainland China was around 92%. On June 19, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average production - sales ratio of 54%, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light, with an average production - sales ratio of about 30% [6][7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [8].