Core Viewpoint - The prediction that former President Trump will integrate the cryptocurrency market into the "Too Big to Fail" financial system by 2026 highlights the growing importance of cryptocurrencies alongside major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs [1] Group 1: Current State of Cryptocurrency - The collapse of the fraudulent cryptocurrency exchange FTX in 2022 did not prompt intervention from the Biden administration, which maintained skepticism towards cryptocurrencies [1] - The current landscape for cryptocurrencies is markedly different, with Trump's family having deep ties to the industry, and potential losses in major stablecoins threatening the liquidity of the entire U.S. financial market [1][2] - In the year following Trump's potential election victory in 2024, the total market capitalization of digital assets surged by $1.2 trillion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching new historical highs [2] Group 2: Potential Triggers for Intervention - The cryptocurrency market has long-standing potential triggers for intervention, particularly concerning large stablecoins like Tether (USDT), which had a market cap of approximately $180 billion as of late November [3] - A mass withdrawal from Tether could severely impact the entire cryptocurrency market, as many transactions are quoted in USDT, potentially freezing market mechanisms [4] - The collapse of a major cryptocurrency exchange could have catastrophic effects on the ecosystem, as highlighted by the European Systemic Risk Board's report on the risks posed by exchanges like Binance and OKX [5] Group 3: Proposed Rescue Mechanisms - Trump's proposed rescue system for cryptocurrencies would likely mirror the liquidity support provided during the 2023 regional bank crisis, using high-quality assets as collateral [6] - The establishment of a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" or "Digital Asset Stockpile" could serve as a safety net for the market, potentially including 200,000 Bitcoins valued at around $18 billion [7] - Political motivations for intervention are strong, as a significant portion of the U.S. adult population holds cryptocurrencies, and the upcoming midterm elections may pressure Trump to address market fears [8]

智通财经APP获悉，近日在加密货币投资领域出现一则令人感到无比兴奋的"2026年币圈大事件预测"： 即美国总统特朗普将于2026年正式在事实层面将"加密货币市场"纳入所谓的"太大而不能倒"金融体系 (Too Big to Fail)——这也意味着加密货币市场的重要性与摩根大通、摩根士丹利以及高盛等华尔街最顶 级金融巨头们的金融市场地位几乎持平。 当欺诈性的加密货币交易所帝国FTX在2022年轰然倒闭，且当时在全球加密货币市场引发剧烈动荡时， 白宫里没有人认为那是他们的问题。时任美国总统乔·拜登总统的政府对比特币和其他基于区块链的加 密货币资产抱持严重怀疑态度，而当时的监管机构们则刻意在波动剧烈的加密货币业务与主流金融机构 之间维持一道防火墙。 迈向2026年之际，现在加密货币所处的情形可谓截然不同。唐纳德·特朗普及其家族与加密货币深度纠 缠。金融市场对于某个主要稳定币的信心丧失可能会在很大程度上损害美国国债市场甚至包括股债汇在 内的整个美国金融市场的流动性。如果来年再发生一次类似FTX的加密货币交易所崩盘事件，预计现任 白宫主人将会选择强势出手干预。 加密货币支持者们已经有很多理由感谢特朗普。根据CoinGe ...

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency world is depicted as a "dark forest" filled with both extraordinary wealth and significant risks, highlighted by contrasting experiences of individuals within the space [1] - A recent incident involving a trader losing nearly $50 million in a sophisticated "address poisoning attack" underscores the vulnerabilities in cryptocurrency transactions [2][3] - The narrative emphasizes the importance of security practices in the cryptocurrency industry, particularly regarding private key management and transaction verification [7][10] Group 1: Incident Analysis - Chun Wang, co-founder of F2Pool, shared a personal experience of losing 490 bitcoins while testing the security of a wallet address, which sparked widespread discussion in the crypto community [1][2] - The trader's loss was a result of a meticulously planned attack that exploited human error and trust in transaction history, leading to a significant financial loss [3] - The attack involved creating a fake address that closely resembled the victim's real address, demonstrating the need for heightened awareness and security measures among users [3] Group 2: Broader Implications - The incident reflects a growing trend of cryptocurrency-related crimes extending beyond the digital realm, as evidenced by bomb threats made to major companies in South Korea demanding bitcoin payments [4][6] - The psychological impact of such threats on businesses and society highlights the need for improved security protocols and user education within the cryptocurrency sector [6] - The industry must take responsibility for enhancing security features in wallets and educating users about emerging threats to prevent similar incidents in the future [7][10] Group 3: Security Recommendations - Users are advised to always copy addresses from original, trusted sources and to avoid selecting addresses from transaction history to mitigate risks [8] - Implementing multi-step verification processes and using address books or domain name services can help reduce the likelihood of errors during transactions [8] - The overarching message is that individuals must take personal responsibility for their asset security in the decentralized cryptocurrency landscape [10]

12月22日，随着全球数字资产市场的波动加剧，Moneta Markets外汇持续关注主流金融机构对加密货币 走势的深度研判。近期，华尔街顶级银行发布的最新报告将比特币未来12个月的基准目标价定为143000 美元，这预示着该资产相较于目前约88000美元的价格水平，仍有约62%的潜在上涨空间。Moneta Markets外汇认为，尽管短期内市场经历了部分回调与震荡，但支撑比特币长期上行的底层逻辑依然稳 固，尤其是传统金融资本的持续介入正在重塑其估值体系。 在对市场节奏的把握上，Moneta Markets外汇表示，新年前后比特币的价格波动区间预计将维持在 80000美元至90000美元之间。分析师特别强调了70000美元这一关键支撑水平的重要性，认为这一位置 不仅是前期价格突破后的心理防御线，更是衡量多头信心的核心指标。根据相关机构的联合研究，第二 季度可能出台的数字资产立法将成为行业发展的里程碑，监管的明确性将显著提升机构投资者对数字资 产的采用率，从而为市场注入更具规模的流动性。 对于未来的走势推演，市场给出了三种不同的预期路径。在基准情景下，受现货ETF资金的持续流入以 及全球传统股市走强带来的溢出效 ...

Core Insights - Hummingbird Ventures, a London-based venture capital firm, focuses on supporting "outlier" founders, which has led to the recognition of its partners Barend Van den Brande and Firat Ileri in Forbes' Midas List Europe [2][3] - The firm successfully led a $15 million Series A funding round for BillionToOne, a medical diagnostics startup, which later went public with a market valuation reaching $4.4 billion [2][3] - Hummingbird's investment strategy emphasizes identifying founders with unique backgrounds and resilience, particularly those who have faced significant challenges in their lives [4][5] Investment Strategy - Hummingbird seeks "outlier" founders who possess a strong desire to succeed despite their unconventional backgrounds [4][5] - The firm has invested in various sectors, including biotechnology, cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence, and gaming, based on the shared traits of resilience among founders [3][4] - Hummingbird's approach diverges from traditional venture capital by focusing on fewer investments, often concentrating a significant portion of their funds into a single startup [9][12] Performance Metrics - Hummingbird's second fund, raised in 2012, has achieved a distribution to paid-in (DPI) ratio of 10x and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 46%, outperforming many peers [11][12] - The firm’s early funds rank among the top 10% of venture capital funds established since 2012, showcasing exceptional performance compared to industry averages [12] - Hummingbird's investment philosophy aligns with the pursuit of "cognitive arbitrage," similar to that of notable investors like Peter Thiel, but with a more aggressive and early-stage investment style [12][13] Team and Operations - Hummingbird's team consists of 14 members who actively search for promising founders globally, with a flexible approach to exploring opportunities in various regions [9][13] - The firm has established a talent team to assist founders in recruiting key management personnel, marking a rare alignment with traditional venture capital practices [11] - Hummingbird's headquarters in London is strategically located near other prominent venture capital firms, enhancing its networking and investment opportunities [13]

该草案还将加密货币纳入涵盖证券交易以及部分商品交易的税收体系。通过境内第三方（例如经纪商或 交易所）进行证券交易的外国投资人以及证券出借投资者所享受的资本利得税豁免，也将将适用于数字 资产。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 众议院两党议员正在携手起草加密货币税收框架，该框架将为部分稳定币交易提供安全港，并对通过验 证区块链交易获得的奖励延后征税。 在更广泛的数字资产监管法案仍在协商之际，加密货币行业仍迫切呼吁通过立法来明确数字资产的税收 待遇。俄亥俄州共和党众议员Max Miller与内华达州民主党众议员Steven Horsford已响应诉求，起草了 将加密货币征税方式与传统证券接轨的草案。 包括法案文本和政策目标的该草案提出，对价值长期保持在0.99美元至1.01美元之间的受监管稳定币的 交易免征资本利得税。 该提案还尝试为质押及挖矿所得奖励的分配与处理设立安全港规则，该奖励涉及区块链交易验证。 来源：环球市场播报 ...

吴说获悉，IOSG 创始人 Jocy 发文称，2025 年或为加密市场"最黑暗的一年"，但同时也是机构时代的 起点。尽管 BTC 年度表现承压，BTC ETF 年内净流入约 250 亿美元，机构持仓占比升至约 24%，并吸 收了长期持有者约 140 万枚 BTC 的抛压。当前并非周期顶部，而是机构配置与市场结构换手阶段， 2026 年上半年在政策相对友好背景下值得重点关注。 （来源：吴说） ...

北京时间20日晚间，仍在交易的加密货币集体拉升，纷纷飘红，21日上午又集体跳水。CoinGlass 数据显示， 截至发稿，近24小时内，加密货币共有超6.7万人爆仓。 事实上，美股已连涨2天，随着节日临近，多位市场人士对行情抱有期待。 究其原因，有分析师表示，经济数据巩固了人们对美联储将采取降息策略的预期。 据新华社，美国 总统 特朗普 17日晚在对全国发表电视讲话时表示，下一任美联储 主席 提名人选 即将揭晓，且这名候选人会支持"大幅"降低利率。 图片来源：CoinGlass "我即将宣布我们的下一任美联储 主席 。" 特朗普 说，"这个人支持大幅降低利率，抵押还款会进 一步下降。" 美国联邦储备委员会10日宣布降息，但 特朗普 吐槽降息幅度"过小"，称"美国的利率就该是全球 最低的"。 据多家媒体报道， 特朗普 目前仍在对候选人进行考察，他在17日面试了美联储理事克里斯托弗· 沃勒。 12日， 特朗普 在接受《华尔街日报》采访时说，美联储前理事凯文·沃什是下一任美联储 主席 职 位的头号候选人，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特也很出色。 特朗普 说，希望联邦基金利率 一年后被降至"1%甚至更低"，以帮助 ...

来源：滚动播报 北京时间20日晚间，仍在交易的加密货币集体拉升，纷纷飘红。CoinGlass数据显示，近24小时内，加 密货币一度共有近8万人爆仓。截至发稿，近24小时内，加密货币共有6.6万人爆仓。事实上，美股已连 涨2天，随着节日临近，多位市场人士对行情抱有期待。 究其原因，有分析师表示，经济数据巩固了人 们对美联储将采取降息策略的预期。 由于11月美国通胀率远低于经济学家的预测，当月失业率意外上 升。 有机构认为，这凸显出当前通胀数据大幅超预期上行的空间非常有限。如果劳动力市场继续保持 目前的轨迹，即失业率每月上升0.1个百分点，明年进一步降息的空间可能被低估。（每经） ...

以太坊基金会宣布将重点从追求证明速度转向强化安全性，提出到 2026 年底实现 128 位可证明安全性 这一 "不可妥协" 门槛，并要求 zkEVM 项目统一通过官方工具测算真实安全水平。基金会表示，虽然 行业已实现接近实时的区块证明，但部分基于猜想的数学安全假设正在被推翻，意味着 "只快不稳" 可 能带来系统性风险，甚至存在被伪造证明篡改 L1 状态的极端威胁。EF 给出三阶段路线：2026 年初统 一安全评估，2026 年中达成至少 100 位安全阈值，年底完成 128 位与更小证明体积。（cryptoslate） （来源：吴说） ...