研究报告 Research Report 22 Aug 2025 名创优品 MINISO Group (MNSO US) 2Q 恢复超预期，大店+兴趣消费推动全球化发展 2Q Recovery Exceeds Expectations, Large Stores & Interest-Driven Consumption Drive Global Development [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 US$22.17 目标价 US$27.30 市值 US$6.21bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$16.62mn 发行股票数目 310.66mn 自由流通股 (%) - 1 年股价最高最低值 US$27.56-US$13.40 注：现价 US$22.17 为 2025 年 08 月 21 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 24.6% 6.1% 56.2% 绝对值（美元） 24.6% 6.1% 56. ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that MINISO's same-store sales growth is accelerating in both China and the United States, driven by a low base effect and strong demand for plush toys [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In China, management's efforts in channel upgrades, such as MINISO Land and flagship stores, have been successful, with same-store sales growth turning positive year-on-year in Q2 [1] - Q3 is expected to see a significant acceleration in same-store sales growth from low single digits in Q2 to high single digits [1] Group 2: Profitability - UBS forecasts that the store-level profit margin will remain flat year-on-year for the first half of the year, with significant improvement expected in July and continued improvement in the second half [1] Group 3: IP Strategy - MINISO's proprietary IP, YOYO, was successfully launched in June, with the first batch of products selling out quickly, generating an estimated total merchandise volume (GMV) of approximately 40 million yuan this year, with a target of over 100 million yuan by 2026 [1] - The acquisition of IP Nommi by Top Toy is expected to generate 250 million yuan in GMV this year, compared to 100 million yuan in 2024 [1] Group 4: Financial Forecasts - UBS has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for MINISO for 2025 to 2027 by 1% to 2%, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The target price for MINISO's U.S. stock has been increased from $25 to $28 [1]

同时，名创优品宣布派发中期股息，每股ADS股息为0.29美元，上半年股份回购及派发股息合计约10.7 亿元，占经调整净利润的84%，上半年股份回购金额已超过2024全年，持续为股东带来丰厚回报。 格隆汇8月22日｜昨晚公布业绩的名创优品(9896.HK)今日大涨，盘中一度涨超20%，报47.16港元，股价 创今年1月以来新高；截至目前成交额放大至18.7亿港元。 公司公布财报显示，2025年二季度总营收达49.7亿元，同比增长23.1%；毛利率44.3%，较去年同期上升 40个基点；经调整净利润(Non-IFRS)6.9亿元，同比增长10.6%；经调整净利率13.9%，经调整每股ADS 收益同比上升12.0%，展现出强劲的业务韧性和稳健的盈利能力。 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the implications of Trump's tariff policies, highlighting that while tariff revenues are projected to exceed $300 billion, the long-term economic impacts and risks are complex [1][2][12] - The increase in tariff revenue is seen as a temporary relief for the growing national debt, which has reached $37 trillion, but ultimately, the burden will shift to consumers and businesses, leading to higher prices [1][4][12] Tariff Revenue - The U.S. Treasury reported that the first round of tariffs initiated on April 9 generated $100 billion in revenue within 90 days, with July seeing a record monthly revenue of $28 billion, a 273% increase year-over-year [2] - Cumulative tariff revenue for the fiscal year has reached $142 billion, with expectations that it may exceed 1% of GDP by year-end [2] - Despite the revenue, Treasury Secretary Besant emphasized that debt repayment is the priority over potential tax rebates for citizens [2][12] Economic Impact - Major companies like Home Depot and Procter & Gamble have warned of price increases due to rising costs from tariffs, with about one-third of U.S. businesses planning to raise prices in the next six months [4][5] - The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the fiscal deficit will increase by $1 trillion over the next decade, exacerbated by Trump's policies [4][12] Trade Relations - The article notes ongoing trade negotiations with China, with hopes to reach an agreement before the end of November to reduce tariffs and mitigate economic impacts [12] - The tariffs imposed on various countries, including a 20% tariff on Chinese goods, are part of Trump's strategy to reshape trade dynamics and reduce trade deficits [2][5] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The article highlights Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, advocating for significant interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy [7][10] - Market expectations for rate cuts have increased, with traders anticipating a higher likelihood of a dovish Federal Reserve in the future [8][10] Conclusion - Overall, while tariff revenues provide short-term fiscal relief, the long-term implications for consumer prices, corporate costs, and national debt remain concerning, with the potential for increased inflation and economic instability [1][4][12]

每经AI快讯，8月22日，港股名创优品盘中涨超20%，创今年1月以来新高。名创优品公布财务报告显 示，公司第二季度总营收达到了49.7亿元，同比增长23.1%；该季度毛利率44.3%，较去年同期上升40个 基点；经调整净利润（非国际财务报告准则，Non-IFRS）6.9亿元，同比增长10.6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - MINISO Group reported positive growth in same-store sales, indicating a strong operational performance and effective global expansion strategy [4]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, MINISO Group achieved total revenue of 4.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [7]. - The gross margin was 44.3%, up 40 basis points from the same period in 2024 [7]. - Adjusted net profit (Non-IFRS) reached 690 million yuan, growing 10.6% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.9% [7]. - Revenue from mainland China was 2.62 billion yuan, up 13.6%, while overseas revenue was 1.94 billion yuan, up 28.6% [7]. Store Expansion - As of June 30, 2025, MINISO had 4,305 stores in mainland China, with a net increase of 30 stores in the quarter, including 7 MINISO LAND locations [8]. - The overseas store count reached 3,307, with a net increase of 94 stores in the same period [7][8]. - The MINISO LAND stores achieved high monthly sales averages, with the flagship store in Shanghai generating over 100 million yuan in sales within 9 months [8]. International Market Growth - New flagship stores opened in South Korea, Australia, and Thailand, enhancing the brand's global image and driving strong overseas growth [10]. - In the U.S., new store performance was 1.5 times that of older stores, with revenue growth exceeding 80% year-on-year in Q2 [10]. IP Strategy - MINISO is leveraging a dual-track model of "top-tier licensed IP + signed artist IP" to enhance brand appeal and attract diverse consumer groups [12]. - Collaborations with major IPs like Disney and Sanrio have been successful, with themed events reaching international markets [12]. - The company has signed 9 emerging toy artists and plans to significantly increase this number, focusing on long-term IP development [12]. Future Outlook - The company aims to deepen its IP strategy to ensure sustainable high-quality growth, with a focus on global influence [13]. - MINISO's commitment to IP development is seen as a long-term strategy to drive differentiated and replicable growth [13].

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the adjusted net profit forecast for MINISO (09896) for 2025/26 by 8%/6% to 2.9 billion/3.7 billion yuan due to the company's continuous improvement in operational performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 2Q25 revenue increased by 23% year-on-year to 5 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit grew by 11% to 690 million yuan, exceeding CICC's expectations mainly due to better-than-expected domestic revenue growth [2] - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.0724 USD per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of approximately 50% of adjusted net profit [2] - The gross profit margin in 2Q25 increased by 0.3 percentage points to 44%, benefiting from a higher proportion of overseas business with high gross margins and improved TOPTOY margins [4] Group 2: Domestic and International Business Performance - Domestic revenue in 2Q25 increased by 14% year-on-year to 2.6 billion yuan, with offline revenue up 12% to 2.4 billion yuan, and same-store sales turned positive despite a high base [3] - Overseas revenue grew by 29% year-on-year to 1.9 billion yuan, contributing 43% to MINISO's total revenue, with the U.S. market showing an impressive 80% increase [3] - The total number of stores increased by 94 during the quarter, with same-store sales improving to a low single-digit decline year-on-year [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company continues to advance its IP strategy, having signed contracts with 9 artists for IP development, and is enhancing its own IP incubation [5] - The large store model has shown effectiveness, with 11 MINISO LAND stores and over 200 flagship stores established in China, contributing double-digit sales growth [5] - In the U.S. market, new store efficiency is 1.5 times that of older stores, with a nearly 30% higher sales per square meter [5]

Core Viewpoint - Miniso's Q2 2025 performance exceeded market expectations, driven by the closure of inefficient stores and the conversion of small stores to larger formats, resulting in positive same-store sales growth [1][2][5] Revenue Performance - Total revenue for Q2 2025 reached 4.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, surpassing the company's previous guidance of 18%-21% [2][8] - Domestic revenue amounted to 2.84 billion yuan, growing by 13.6% year-on-year, while Top Toy achieved 400 million yuan in revenue, marking an impressive 87% increase [2][8] - Overseas revenue was 1.94 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.6%, although the growth rate showed a quarter-on-quarter decline [3][9] Store Expansion - After closing many low-efficiency stores in the first quarter, Miniso added 30 new stores in Q2, primarily in lower-tier markets [3][10] - The overseas segment saw a net addition of 94 stores, with a focus on increasing the proportion of direct-operated stores to 17.5% [3][10] Same-Store Sales - Domestic same-store sales turned positive, driven by the "large store + IP product upgrade" strategy, which significantly increased the average transaction value [3][11] - In overseas markets, same-store sales in key regions like the U.S. and Mexico began to show improvement from April onwards [4][11] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin slightly improved by 0.4 percentage points to 44.3%, attributed to a higher proportion of self-developed products and localized sourcing [4][11] - Sales expense ratio increased by 2.6 percentage points to 23.1%, but the growth rate showed a decline compared to the previous quarter [4][11] Financial Summary - Adjusted net profit for Q2 reached 690 million yuan, exceeding market expectations [4][11] - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% for overall revenue from 2025 to 2027, with a current implied PE ratio of around 17x for 2025 [7][8]

Core Insights - MINISO Group (MNSO.US/9896.HK) reported Q2 2025 total revenue of 4.97 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.1% [1] - The gross margin for the quarter was 44.3%, an increase of 40 basis points compared to the same period last year [1] - Adjusted net profit (Non-IFRS) reached 690 million yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.9% [1] Store Expansion - As of the end of June, MINISO had 4,305 domestic stores, with a net increase of 30 stores in the quarter, and 3,307 overseas stores, with a net increase of 94 stores [1] - The strategy of "opening good stores and large stores" has shown significant results, with same-store sales growth turning positive in both domestic and overseas markets [1] New Store Formats - MINISO has established 11 MINISO LAND stores and 1 MINISO SPACE store in key cities across the country as of the end of June [1] - The MINISO LAND flagship store achieved over 100 million yuan in sales within 9 months, creating a strong IP commercial channel network [1]

Group 1 - Miniso (MNSO.US) stock rose 3.7% in pre-market trading ahead of its earnings report scheduled for August 21 [1] - Nomura expects Miniso's Q2 earnings report to meet expectations, with revenue projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 4.8 billion RMB [1] - Operating profit is anticipated to decline by 1% to 744 million RMB [1] Group 2 - As of August 19, the closing price was $20.130, with a pre-market price of $20.880 [1] - The total market capitalization is approximately $6.254 billion [1] - The stock has a 52-week high of $27.149 and a low of $12.257 [1]