Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of 5.797 billion, exceeding the previous guidance limit of 28%, with a year-on-year growth of 28.2% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 was 767 million, reflecting an 11.7% increase, but net profit margin decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 13.2% [1] - The acquisition of Yonghui Supermarket has impacted short-term profits, leading to financial expenses of 105 million and investment losses of 145 million in Q3 [1] Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 15.190 billion, marking a 23.7% increase, with a gross margin of 44.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 2.046 billion, up 6.1%, but the adjusted net profit margin decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 13.5% [1] Store Expansion - The company achieved a milestone of 8,000 stores, with a total of 8,138 stores as of Q3 2025, a net increase of 718 stores year-on-year [1] - By brand, MINISO generated Q3 revenue of 5.222 billion, a 22.9% increase, with 7,831 stores, including 4,407 in mainland China and 3,424 overseas [1] - TOPTOY reported Q3 revenue of 575 million, reflecting a significant growth of 111.4%, with 307 stores [1] Same-Store Sales Improvement - MINISO's same-store sales in mainland China showed high single-digit growth in Q3, with estimates indicating low double-digit growth in October [2] - Overseas same-store sales experienced mid-single-digit growth, influenced by geopolitical factors in regions like Latin America, but long-term prospects remain positive [2] - TOPTOY also reported same-store sales growth in the low single digits, driven by the company's IP strategy and large store contributions [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on an IP-driven strategy, having signed contracts with 16 artist IPs, and is utilizing a "small batch trial sales + data iteration" model for promotion [2] - The introduction of large store formats, such as MINISOLAND and MINISO FRIENDS, is expected to enhance store performance and contribute to revenue growth [2] - A significant transformation is planned, with 80% of stores expected to undergo changes by 2026, shifting from retail to cultural and creative offerings [2] Financial Outlook - The company anticipates revenue adjustments for 2025-2027 to 21.203 billion, 25.800 billion, and 29.992 billion, respectively, considering the impact of the Yonghui acquisition [3] - Projected net profits for the same period are 1.989 billion, 3.155 billion, and 4.020 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.19, 13.99, and 10.98 [3] - The investment recommendation remains "buy" based on same-store recovery and rapid overseas expansion, despite the financial burdens from the Yonghui acquisition [3]

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso (09896) based on strong Q3 performance with a revenue growth of 28% year-on-year, driven by robust overseas business, particularly in North America, and rapid expansion of the TOPTOY brand [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached 5.797 billion yuan (+28% year-on-year), with adjusted net profit of 767 million yuan (+11.7% year-on-year) and an adjusted net profit margin of 13.2% (down 2 percentage points year-on-year) [1] - Expected adjusted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 2.96 billion, 3.42 billion, and 4.21 billion yuan respectively, with current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times [1] Operational Analysis - Q3 revenue breakdown: Domestic Miniso 2.909 billion yuan (+19.3% year-on-year), Overseas Miniso 2.312 billion yuan (+27.7% year-on-year), TOPTOY 575 million yuan (+111.4% year-on-year) [2] - Domestic Miniso shows positive same-store growth in Q3, with store count reaching 4,407 (up 157 year-on-year) [2] - Overseas Miniso sees improved growth quality, with North America exceeding expectations; total overseas store count at 3,424 (up 488 year-on-year) [2] TOPTOY Performance - TOPTOY revenue in Q3 was 575 million yuan (+111% year-on-year), driven by rapid store expansion and increased sales of proprietary and exclusive IPs [3] - Q3 gross margin was 44.7% (down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year), with total expenses rising to 1.43 billion yuan (+43.5% year-on-year) due to investments in strategic overseas stores [3] Future Outlook - Continued same-store recovery trend is expected, with ongoing expansion in global IP design retail positioning [3] - Domestic market is anticipated to benefit from large store strategies, while North America will focus on a concentrated store opening strategy to enhance scale effects [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Miniso Group, with a target price of USD 26.60, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of USD 19.57 [2][10]. Core Insights - Miniso's 3Q performance met guidance, with revenue of RMB 5.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, exceeding the upper limit of the previous guidance of 25%-28% [3][16]. - The company expects 4Q revenue growth of 25%-30%, with same-store sales growth in mainland China and the U.S. projected to be in the low double digits [3][9]. - For the full year 2025, Miniso anticipates a revenue growth rate of approximately 25% [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Projections**: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 21.4 billion, RMB 25.3 billion, and RMB 29.8 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 18%, and 18% [10][18]. - **Net Profit**: Adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 2.92 billion, RMB 3.41 billion, and RMB 4.08 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][18]. - **Gross Profit Margin**: The gross profit margin is expected to improve slightly from 44.8% in 2025 to 45.9% in 2027 [10][14]. Domestic Business Overview - Domestic revenue reached RMB 2.91 billion in 3Q, a 19% year-on-year increase, with 102 new stores added in the quarter [4][16]. - The company plans to open over 100 new stores in mainland China by 2025, focusing on channel upgrades and high-quality store openings [4][9]. International Business Overview - International revenue was RMB 2.31 billion, up 28% year-on-year, with 117 new stores added [5][16]. - The U.S. market showed significant growth, with revenue increasing by over 65% year-on-year [5][16]. TOPTOY Business Performance - TOPTOY reported revenue of RMB 575 million, a remarkable 111% increase year-on-year, with a significant improvement in same-store sales [8][16]. - The company plans to open 40-45 new TOPTOY stores by 2025 [8][16]. Valuation and Target Price - The report projects a target price of USD 26.60 based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2025, reflecting a slight adjustment from the previous target price of USD 27.30 [10][18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.966 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 490 million yuan, a decrease of 17% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 691 million yuan, reflecting an 11% increase year-on-year [2][4]. Revenue Performance - The company reported that both domestic and U.S. same-store sales have turned positive. As of Q2 2025, the company had 4,305 domestic stores, 3,307 overseas stores, and 293 TOPTOY stores, with a net increase of 30, 94, and 13 stores respectively in the quarter. Domestic same-store sales grew by 14% year-on-year, while overseas and TOPTOY saw increases of 29% and 87% respectively [7]. Profitability Analysis - The decline in net profit was primarily due to losses from Yonghui Supermarket, which amounted to 120 million yuan. Despite this, the adjusted net profit showed a double-digit growth of 11% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 0.4 percentage points. The sales and management expense ratios changed by -2.9 and -0.4 percentage points respectively, indicating improved operational efficiency [7]. Strategic Developments - The company has optimized its operations significantly in both domestic and overseas markets. The domestic strategy focuses on transitioning from small to large stores and refining inventory management, which has led to improved same-store sales. The overseas business, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, is expected to continue growing due to enhanced direct operations [7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a solid growth trajectory, with projected adjusted net profits of 3.12 billion, 3.73 billion, and 4.28 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The long-term investment highlights include a stable domestic business foundation, expansion of direct overseas operations, and the development of proprietary IP [7].

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains a "buy" rating for MINISO (09896), projecting significant revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027, driven by its global expansion and optimization of operations [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, with adjusted net profit of 1.279 billion yuan, up 3.0% [2] - In Q2 2025, MINISO's revenue reached 4.97 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.1%, and adjusted net profit was 690 million yuan, an increase of 10.6% [2] Group 2: Store Expansion and Performance - In Q2 2025, MINISO's domestic store count increased by 30, with a total of 4,305 stores, marking a year-on-year growth of 190 stores [2] - The same-store sales in Q2 2025 showed a low single-digit growth, indicating a positive trend in performance, with an estimated average revenue per store of 611,000 yuan, up 7.87% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Future Projections - Revenue projections for MINISO are set at 21.32 billion yuan for 2025, 25.45 billion yuan for 2026, and 30.00 billion yuan for 2027, with net profits expected to reach 2.59 billion yuan, 3.40 billion yuan, and 4.12 billion yuan respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 2.91 billion yuan, 3.53 billion yuan, and 4.20 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that MINISO (09896) maintains a "buy" rating, with projected revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The expected revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 21.32 billion, 25.45 billion, and 30.00 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 2.59 billion, 3.40 billion, and 4.12 billion yuan [1] - The company is recognized as a global leader in daily goods retail, leveraging its advantages in channels and supply chains to expand rapidly worldwide [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, with adjusted net profit of 1.279 billion yuan, up 3.0% [2] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, and adjusted net profit of 690 million yuan, up 10.6% [2] - The domestic store count increased by 30 in Q2 2025, reaching a total of 4,305 stores, marking a year-on-year increase of 190 stores [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected adjusted net profits of 29.5 billion, 34 billion, and 41.9 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times [4]. Core Insights - The company reported H1 revenue of 9.39 billion (up 21%) and adjusted net profit of 1.279 billion (up 3%), exceeding market expectations. Q2 revenue reached 4.97 billion (up 23.1%) with an adjusted net profit of 690 million (up 10.6%) [2]. - Domestic and overseas performance showed positive trends, with domestic same-store sales showing a low single-digit increase in Q2, and overseas sales in North America and Europe performing well [2][3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its IP portfolio and enhancing its store network, with a total of 4,305 stores as of Q2, reflecting a net increase of 190 stores [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 revenue was 9.39 billion, with Q2 revenue at 4.97 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 23.1%. Adjusted net profit for H1 was 1.279 billion, with Q2 adjusted net profit at 690 million [2]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q2 was 13.9%, with a slight decrease compared to the previous quarter [2]. Domestic Operations - Domestic same-store sales showed a low single-digit increase in Q2, indicating a recovery trend. The company has successfully opened IP flagship stores and optimized its operational strategies [2]. - The total number of domestic stores reached 4,305, with significant growth in first, second, and third-tier cities [2]. Overseas Operations - The overseas segment reported a GMV of 7.33 billion for H1, with a year-on-year increase of 14.5%. The total number of overseas stores reached 3,307, with notable growth in Asia and Europe [2]. - North America showed signs of recovery, while Europe performed strongly, contributing to the overall growth in the overseas segment [2][3]. Future Projections - The company expects adjusted net profits to grow significantly over the next few years, with projections of 29.5 billion, 34 billion, and 41.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8]. - The report anticipates continued growth driven by store expansion and the development of proprietary IP, with a clear growth path for the IP retail group [3].

Group 1 - Miniso (09896) shares increased by over 5%, reaching a price of 40.42 HKD with a trading volume of 268 million HKD [1] - Yonghui Supermarket (601933) announced plans to raise up to 4 billion CNY through a private placement for store upgrades, logistics improvements, and working capital [1] - The upgrade project will involve 298 stores adopting the "Fat Donglai model" [1] Group 2 - Miniso invested 6.27 billion CNY to acquire a 30% stake in Yonghui Supermarket, expected to be completed by September 2024 [1] - The "Guzi Economy" is emerging as a core driver of new consumption in China, influenced by self-consumption needs and the rise of domestic IP [1] - Miniso has collaborated with over 150 well-known IPs globally, with significant partnerships among the top IP licensors [1][1] - The subsidiary brand TOPTOY achieved total revenue of 340 million CNY in Q1 2025, marking a 59% year-on-year growth [1]

Group 1 - Miniso's stock price increased by over 5%, reaching HKD 40.42 with a trading volume of HKD 268 million [1] - Yonghui Supermarket announced a plan to raise up to RMB 4 billion for store upgrades, logistics improvements, and working capital [1] - Miniso acquired a 30% stake in Yonghui Supermarket for RMB 6.27 billion, expected to be completed by September 2024 [1] Group 2 - The "Guzi Economy" is emerging as a core driver of new consumption in China, influenced by self-consumption demands and the rise of domestic IPs [1] - Miniso has collaborated with over 150 well-known IPs globally, with significant partnerships among the top IP licensors [1] - TOPTOY, Miniso's toy brand, achieved total revenue of RMB 340 million in Q1 2025, marking a 59% year-on-year growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Miniso's stock price plummeted over 18% on May 26, primarily due to concerns raised by its Q1 2025 financial report, which showed revenue growth but a significant decline in net profit [2] Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, Miniso reported revenue of 4.43 billion RMB, an 18.9% year-on-year increase, while net profit fell by 28.92% to 417 million RMB [2][3] - The increase in revenue was overshadowed by a sharp rise in sales and distribution expenses, which reached 1.02 billion RMB, a 46.7% increase year-on-year [3][4] - General and administrative expenses also rose by 26.6% to 242 million RMB, further squeezing profit margins [3][4] Cost Structure - The rise in sales and distribution expenses was attributed to direct investments in new stores and interest expenses from loans related to the acquisition of Yonghui Superstores [4] - High operational costs associated with overseas expansion, including rent, depreciation, and wages, increased by 71.4%, leading to low profit contributions from new stores [5] Market Expansion and Competition - As of March 31, 2025, Miniso had expanded its overseas store count to 3,213, a net increase of 617 stores year-on-year [5][6] - The company faces challenges in the domestic market due to increased competition and changing consumer preferences, which have diminished the effectiveness of its low-price strategy [6] - Same-store sales have shown a mid-single-digit decline, indicating reduced operational efficiency and growth potential in the domestic market [6] Debt and Financial Health - Miniso's total liabilities nearly doubled from 7.77 billion RMB to 15.51 billion RMB, with the debt-to-asset ratio rising from 42.85% to 59.22% [7][8] - Despite revenue growth, the significant drop in net profit, risks from overseas expansion, and intense market competition raise concerns about the company's future profitability and ability to manage costs effectively [8]