Core Insights - The U.S. Energy Secretary predicts that nuclear fusion power technology could achieve commercial application within 8 to 15 years, providing strong confidence in the clean energy sector, which has long been constrained by technological bottlenecks [1] - This optimism is based on a historic breakthrough in 2022 at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, where net energy gain from nuclear fusion was first achieved, marking a transition from experimental to potential engineering application [1] Group 1 - The U.S. will actively promote the commercialization path of nuclear fusion and accelerate its application in actual energy supply [1] - Nuclear fusion technology is seen as a crucial solution for future clean energy, offering nearly limitless power generation without greenhouse gas emissions or long-lived nuclear waste, which is significant for the global energy transition [1] Group 2 - The pace of innovation in the nuclear fusion sector has significantly accelerated in recent years, with multiple key technological breakthroughs following the 2022 net energy gain achievement, enhancing industry confidence [4] - Notable tech entrepreneurs like Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates have invested billions into related startups and technology development, alongside sovereign wealth funds, U.S. development banks, and venture capital firms, all contributing to the push for nuclear fusion commercialization [4] Group 3 - The current investment surge reflects a growing market demand for carbon-free energy and increased confidence in the eventual commercial application of nuclear fusion technology [7] - Several companies are actively advancing demonstration plant construction and grid connection plans, aiming to be the first to achieve commercial operation globally [7] - With clearer technological pathways and increased policy support, the commercial prospects for nuclear fusion power are becoming increasingly promising, potentially transforming the global energy supply landscape and providing critical support in addressing climate change [7]

美国能源部长预计核聚变将在8年内走出实验室，迈向商业化发电，为全球清洁能源格局带来革命性变 革。 9月16日，据媒体报道，美国能源部长Chris Wright表示，核聚变发电技术有望在未来十年内实现商业化 应用。Wright预测，商业化核聚变发电最快可能在8年内实现，最迟不会超过15年。 这一表态为长期面临技术挑战的核聚变产业注入了新的信心。核聚变技术被视为未来清洁能源的重要解 决方案，具备提供大量无碳电力的潜力，但多年来商业化进程缓慢。 核聚变技术模拟太阳和恒星的能量产生机制，理论上可以提供几乎无限的清洁电力，且不产生温室气体 排放或长期放射性废料。 Wright表示，核聚变领域的创新步伐正在加速。"创新的速度比以往任何时候都要快，"他说，"这项技 术即将到来，令人兴奋。" 核聚变技术已成为顶级投资者和机构的重点关注领域。包括亚马逊创始人贝索斯（Jeff Bezos）、微软 创始人比尔·盖茨和PayPal联合创始人Peter Thiel在内的科技巨头已向该领域投入数十亿美元资金。 近年来，核聚变产业还获得了更广泛的资本支持。主权财富基金、国家开发银行和风险投资机构纷纷加 入投资行列，表明市场对核聚变商业化前 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the lagging effect of productivity in relation to the adoption of AI as a general-purpose technology, highlighting that significant improvements in productivity take time to materialize after the technology is commercialized [3][6][10] - Historical examples show that technologies like the steam engine, generator, and computer took many years after their invention and commercialization to noticeably enhance productivity [3][5] - Current productivity growth rates in the EU and the US are below historical averages, with EU labor productivity declining by 0.6% in 2023 and expected to grow by only 0.4% in 2024, while US productivity growth since 2020 averages 1.8%, below the long-term average of 2.2% [6][10] Group 2 - AI adoption rates are still low, with the EU's enterprise AI adoption rate averaging 13.5% and the US at 9.2%, indicating that AI's impact on economic growth will not be significant in the short term [7][10] - Despite the low profitability of AI model companies, there is a high expectation for future returns, leading to increased capital expenditures among major internet companies in the US and China [11][13] - In 2024, capital expenditures for major US internet companies are projected to reach $245 billion, significantly contributing to GDP growth, with AI data center spending surpassing consumer spending for the first time [13][15] Group 3 - The article draws parallels between the current AI wave and historical technological expectations, suggesting that belief in AI's potential is driving economic growth more than the technology itself [18][19] - The discussion extends to nuclear fusion as a future energy source, with significant investments being made in fusion technology, indicating a similar pattern of high expectations and investment as seen with AI [20][24] - The article concludes by highlighting the dichotomy of belief in technological advancements, questioning whether the current AI and nuclear fusion trends will fulfill their promises or follow historical patterns of delayed realization [27][29]

Group 1: AI and Innovation - The 2025 Inclusion·Bund Conference in Shanghai focused on "Reshaping Innovation Growth," featuring discussions on AI as a key theme, with over 40 forums and a significant technology exhibition [1] - Richard Sutton, the 2024 Turing Award winner, emphasized that humanity is entering a new "Era of Experience," where AI's replacement is inevitable, and the data era is nearing its end [3][4] - Sutton highlighted that the core of intelligence lies in experience, which involves observation, action, and reward, and pointed out the need for continual learning and meta-learning technologies to unlock AI's full potential [3] Group 2: Industry Perspectives - Wang Jian, founder of Alibaba Cloud, stated that open data and computing resources are essential for advancing AI, marking a shift from code open-sourcing to resource sharing [5][6] - Wang also introduced the concept of "computing satellites," which will leverage AI in space exploration, indicating a new frontier for AI applications beyond traditional devices [6] - Wang Xingxing, CEO of Yushu Technology, expressed optimism about the AI era, noting that small organizations will increasingly have explosive growth potential, despite existing challenges in data quality and model algorithms [7][8] Group 3: Organizational Challenges - McKinsey's China Chairman, Li Yili, identified organizational culture as the biggest bottleneck in AI development, advocating for CEO-led transformations focused on profitability rather than just application scenarios [8][9] - Li outlined three stages of globalization for Chinese enterprises, emphasizing the need for a global perspective and diverse collaboration models to enhance growth opportunities [10] Group 4: Energy and AI - Professor Sun Xuan from the University of Science and Technology of China proposed that nuclear fusion is the key to meeting the energy demands of AI, with 1 gram of fusion fuel equating to the energy of 8 tons of oil [11][12] - Sun highlighted the significant energy gap that AI could create, predicting that AI's energy consumption could exceed 20% of the Earth's total energy supply in the future [11] - The fusion industry is seeing increased investment, with a total of $7.1 billion raised globally, indicating a growing interest in commercializing fusion technology [12]

据中国科学院合肥物质科学研究院等离子体物理研究所网站10日消息，近日，由该所牵头承担的国 家"十三五"重大科技基础设施聚变堆主机关键系统综合研究设施项目（CRAFT）关键子系统——离子 回旋（ICRF）加热系统顺利通过专家组验收，实现我国在高功率射频加热技术领域的突破。 离子回旋加热系统。等离子体物理研究所网站 离子温度作为聚变堆"点火"的关键参数。在氘氚聚变反应中，离子温度需达到上亿摄氏度并自持燃烧， ICRF可直接加热等离子体中的离子，有效提升反应概率。CRAFT研制的高功率离子回旋系统平台，具 有2MW稳态功率输出、宽频带和千秒级长脉冲运行能力，可为BEST、CFEDR以及ITER装置的离子回 旋加热系统关键部件的设计提供研发与测试平台，将为未来聚变能源发展提供重要支持，助力国家双碳 战略实施。 离子回旋加热系统的成功研制，实现了高功率射频加热技术从"跟跑"向"领跑"的跨越，彰显了我国在聚 变能源领域的全链条创新能力，助力中国在全球能源革命中占据科技制高点。 本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。 据介绍，该系统面向未来聚变堆，针对发射机核心器件兆瓦级电子四极管国产化、大功率合成器研制、 聚变堆天 ...

人工智能正在进入"经验时代"；文明的下一跃，需要AI"大脑"与核聚变"心脏"；基础设施加速扩张，AI 正步入"产业规模化"……9月11日上午，以"重塑创新增长"为主题的2025 Inclusion·外滩大会在上海黄浦 世博园区开幕。来自16个国家和地区的550位嘉宾参会分享，全球顶尖学者、产业界人士、青年创业者 和科学家，共同探索智能时代的创新路径与商业未来。 孙玄在演讲中援引数据称："AI目前用电量占地球的1.5%，如果我们把AI比喻成'地球大脑'的话，人的 大脑能耗占人体的20%，因此有人预测，AI的耗电量也将占地球总数的20%以上。"这意味着，仅人工 智能一个领域，就将产生巨大的能源缺口。 基础设施加速扩张，AI 正步入"产业规模化" 在外滩大会开幕主论坛上，源码资本投资合伙人、美国国家工程院外籍院士张宏江表示，大模型的"规 模定律（Scaling Law）"仍然有效，而智能体与经济结构转型将深刻重塑社会。 张宏江指出，人类正在进入"智能体群（agent swarm）"时代，也就是数量庞大的智能体之间彼此交互、 执行任务、交换数据、交换信息，甚至交换任务，而人类与这些智能体群的交互，将构成所谓的"智能 ...

"相信不少人听过这么一句话：AI的终点是能源，能源的终点是聚变。" 9月11日，在2025 Inclusion·外滩大会上，中国科学技术大学核科学与技术学院教授、星能玄光创始人兼董事长孙玄在演讲中重申了这一业界重要共识——核 聚变是开启下一代文明的关键科技。 孙玄指出，AI的崛起正指数级推高全球能源消耗，而解决这一终极需求的答案便是核聚变。核聚变一旦实现，不仅将带来一场能源革命并引发工业革命， 更是迈向利用宇宙中最普遍能源、跨越到更高阶文明的关键一步。 当下，驱动聚变能从实验室走向产业关注的核心力量，正来自于其最大的需求方——AI。孙玄在指出："AI目前用电量占地球的1.5%，如果我们把AI比喻 成'地球大脑'的话，人的大脑能耗占人体的20%，因此有人预测，AI的耗电量也将占地球总数的20%以上。" 这意味着，仅AI一个领域，就将产生巨大的能源缺口。 核聚变正是满足未来AI技术发展所需的能源供给的解决之道。聚变指的是两个轻核聚合成一个重核，在这一过程中存在质量亏损，可以释放出巨大的能 量。孙玄指出，核聚变拥有极高的能量密度：1克核聚变燃料，释放的能量相当于8吨石油。 等离子体不稳定性 孙玄解释道，实现核聚变的 ...

Core Insights - The global fusion industry has experienced explosive growth over the past five years, with total investment rising from $1.9 billion in 2021 to $9.7 billion, including an increase of $2.6 billion in the last year alone, reflecting mature investor confidence, technological breakthroughs, and rapid supply chain integration [1][2] - The era of controllable nuclear fusion is accelerating, with 2030 seen as a critical period for commercialization, driven by the advantages of abundant raw materials, high efficiency, and safety [2][3] Investment Opportunities - Companies involved in Z-pinch drivers, fusion targets, and deep subcritical fission blankets are recommended for investment, as Z-pinch technology is rapidly developing and its commercialization path is becoming clearer [1][4] - The Z-pinch technology is expected to significantly boost investments in key areas such as drivers, fusion targets, and deep subcritical fission blankets, with a focus on critical technologies like high-yield fusion target design and large current driver design [4][5] Technological Developments - Inertial confinement technology, particularly Z-pinch technology, is gaining recognition for its safety, economic viability, durability, and environmental friendliness, with significant advancements being made [3][4] - The U.S. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory achieved a historic milestone by producing 3.15 megajoules of fusion energy output, surpassing the fusion ignition threshold, marking a significant step towards the fusion energy era [3] Future Projections - The development of Z-pinch technology is expected to progress through three phases: critical technology breakthroughs (2024-2030), engineering demonstration (2031-2040), and commercial power generation (post-2040), with specific milestones set for each phase [5]

这项原先停留在实验室里的尖端技术，正加速从科研阶段走向产业前沿。 核聚变的历史 今年夏天，谷歌签下了一份前所未有的购电协议：承诺从核聚变创业公司Commonwealth Fusion Systems （CFS）的首座商业电厂ARC采购200兆瓦电力。 这一规模远超2023年微软与Helion Energy的50兆瓦协议，成为目前全球最大聚变能源购电协议，也 让"聚变商业化"从概念向现实再近一步。 资本对CFS的追捧并非偶然。自2021年起，这家公司就拿下了全球核聚变领域单轮最大的18亿美元B轮 融资；今年8月28日，CFS再获8.63亿美元的B2轮融资，B轮总计融资26.63亿美元（约合人民币186亿 元），刷新了核聚变领域的单轮融资纪录——背后站着谷歌、英伟达、比尔·盖茨旗下基金Breakthrough Energy Ventures等重量级玩家，是聚变行业当之无愧的"融资王"。 此轮融资后，CFS累计融资破30亿美元，占全球聚变行业总融资的三分之一；公司估值也达到约80亿美 金（折合人民币约560亿元）。 与此同时，大洋彼岸的中国合肥，"人造太阳"实验装置EAST的控制室里早已爆发出欢呼——炽热等离 子体 ...

Group 1 - The Los Alamos National Laboratory team in the U.S. proposed an innovative solution to convert nuclear waste into fusion fuel, addressing the long-standing tritium fuel shortage in the nuclear fusion sector [1][2] - Tritium production is critically limited, with natural and artificial sources totaling only a few dozen kilograms, while the demand for tritium in commercial fusion reactors is significantly higher, creating a substantial supply gap [2][3] - The proposed method utilizes a particle accelerator-driven system to bombard nuclear waste, initiating a controlled fission reaction that ultimately generates tritium fuel, although it remains in the theoretical research phase [2][3] Group 2 - Global investment in nuclear fusion research is accelerating, highlighting the urgency of tritium production and the importance of developing alternative technologies [3] - Various technological routes are emerging in the fusion industry, with some approaches bypassing the need for tritium altogether, indicating a diverse exploration of fusion energy commercialization [3][4] - The hydrogen-boron fusion route has gained traction, with eight companies adopting this method by the end of 2024, including China's New Hope Group, which has achieved significant experimental milestones [4][5] Group 3 - China has made rapid advancements in fusion research, with notable achievements in the EAST device and the "Chinese Circulation No. 3," both reaching critical temperature breakthroughs [5] - New Hope Group's "Xuanlong-50U" device has successfully demonstrated the feasibility of hydrogen-boron plasma operations, providing key references for international fusion projects [5] - The ongoing research and development efforts in China since 2017 have focused on hydrogen-boron fusion, aiming to contribute to the commercialization of fusion energy [5][6]