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商品日报20250924-20250924
商品日报 20250924 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观:美国 9 月 PMI 符合预期,国内股债商均有所调整 海外方面,鲍威尔称通胀上行与就业下行风险并存,美联储需权衡取舍,称关税属一次 性冲击,决策不受政治因素驱动;鲍曼则称在稳就业上动作滞后,若需求走弱或需加快降息。 美国 9 月标普制造业、服务业 PMI 基本符合预期,均处于扩张区间,企业虽受关税成本冲 击但未提价,也印证关税未必长期推升物价的观点。美股调整,美元指数震荡偏弱,金价再 创 3791 美元历史新高,油价受供应扰动上涨超 1%,铜价小幅收涨。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 国内方面,周二股债商均有所调整,市场风险偏好回落。A 股放量调整,上证指数盘中 下跌超 1%、尾盘修复大部分,两市超 4000 家收跌、赚钱效应较弱,成交额回升至 2.5 万亿, 红利板块、创业板收涨,中证 1000、北证 50 等小票偏弱。股市主要交易前期上涨后的调整, 假期前夕有部分资金选择了结观望,目前基本面温和、四季度政策预期在升温, ...
港股23日跌0.7% 收报26159.12点
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-09-23 09:28
Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 185.02 points, a decrease of 0.7%, closing at 26,159.12 points [1] - The H-share Index dropped by 80.39 points, closing at 9,290.34 points, a decline of 0.86% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 90.85 points, closing at 6,167.06 points, down 1.45% [1] - The total turnover on the main board was HKD 294.56 billion [1] Blue Chip Stocks - Tencent Holdings decreased by 0.86%, closing at HKD 635.5 [1] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing fell by 1.17%, closing at HKD 437.4 [1] - China Mobile declined by 0.29%, closing at HKD 85.15 [1] - HSBC Holdings increased by 1.31%, closing at HKD 108.6 [1] Local Hong Kong Stocks - Cheung Kong Holdings fell by 0.54%, closing at HKD 36.54 [1] - Sun Hung Kai Properties decreased by 1.07%, closing at HKD 92.45 [1] - Henderson Land Development dropped by 1.44%, closing at HKD 27.3 [1] Chinese Financial Stocks - Bank of China remained unchanged, closing at HKD 4.28 [1] - China Construction Bank rose by 0.67%, closing at HKD 7.5 [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China increased by 0.7%, closing at HKD 5.78 [1] - Ping An Insurance fell by 1.23%, closing at HKD 52.3 [1] - China Life Insurance decreased by 0.56%, closing at HKD 21.48 [1] Oil and Petrochemical Stocks - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation fell by 0.25%, closing at HKD 4.07 [1] - China National Petroleum Corporation decreased by 0.28%, closing at HKD 7.07 [1] - CNOOC Limited dropped by 0.68%, closing at HKD 18.91 [1]
滨南采油管理区加强承包商全流程管控
Qi Lu Wan Bao Wang· 2025-09-23 04:19
队伍引进来,履职能力提升也是关键。针对承包商监护人,管理区举办作业许可专项培训,内容涵盖动 火、受限空间、高处作业等7项作业的监护要求、职责、安全措施及人员证件查验等,用考核提高监护 队伍的专业素养和安全意识,作业现场的安全水平大幅提高。 生产运行中,管理区将通过评估考核的监护人纳入承包商作业监护人员清单,属地单位按当日作业内容 预约监护人员,非清单人员严禁担任作业许可监护职责。其间,他们全程落实风险识别和安全技术交 底,一旦施工人员违反安全规定,立即清退并纳入"黑名单"。(大众新闻记者顾松通讯员赵强) "'三关'管控的核心,是让安全成为承包商作业的'标配'。"滨南采油管理区经理孙冰表示,他们严格落 实反"三违"专项整治要求,确保每项作业在严格监护下进行。 管理区坚持"管业务必须管安全,谁准入谁负责"的原则,严格落实"各单位、各部门主要负责人对承包 商的引入、监管、评价、考核、淘汰负总责"的要求,由安全生产指挥中心联合各组室、班站,对26家 承包商的57名监护人员开展全面能力评估,逐项审查承包商安全资质、监护人员HSE培训合格证及各项 安全培训记录。 "这家承包商监护人员HSE(健康、安全、环境)培训合格证已 ...
石油与化工指数多数下跌(9月15日至19日)
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-09-23 02:38
Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical raw materials index decreased by 1.21%, while the chemical machinery index increased by 2.90% [1] - The pharmaceutical index fell by 1.36%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index dropped by 2.50% [1] - The oil processing index declined by 2.22%, the oil extraction index decreased by 3.17%, and the oil trading index fell by 1.46% [1] Group 2: Oil Prices - As of September 19, the WTI crude oil futures settled at $62.68 per barrel, down 0.02% from September 12 [1] - The Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.68 per barrel, down 0.46% from the previous Friday [1] Group 3: Petrochemical Product Price Changes - The top five petrochemical products with price increases were liquid chlorine (up 22.93%), isooctyl acrylate (up 7.47%), acrylic acid (up 5.04%), calcium carbide (up 4.94%), and MMA (up 4.51%) [1] - The top five petrochemical products with price decreases were vitamin E (down 10.00%), epichlorohydrin (down 6.44%), sulfuric acid (down 4.94%), p-nitrochlorobenzene (down 4.62%), and dichloromethane (down 3.64%) [1] Group 4: Capital Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five performing listed chemical companies were Kaimete Gas (up 28.62%), Hongda Explosive (up 22.93%), Sanwei Co. (up 22.53%), Zhongshi Technology (up 21.57%), and Jinghua New Materials (up 18.94%) [2] - The bottom five performing listed chemical companies were Runyang Technology (down 11.48%), Lafang Cosmetics (down 10.43%), Wankai New Materials (down 10.42%), Jiaao Environmental Protection (down 10.25%), and Shilong Industrial (down 9.41%) [2]
首个深水油田二次开发项目迎周岁
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-09-23 02:25
Core Insights - The successful production of the Liuhua 11-1/4-1 oil field secondary development project marks a significant achievement for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) in overcoming the challenges associated with developing reef limestone oil fields, which are known for their high difficulty level [2] Group 1: Project Overview - The Liuhua 11-1/4-1 oil field secondary development project has produced over 700,000 tons of crude oil in its first year, exceeding expectations [2] - This oil field is China's first deepwater oil field and has the largest proven geological reserves of reef limestone oil in the country [2] Group 2: Technical Achievements - CNOOC has developed a series of water control and oil stabilization technologies specifically for offshore reef limestone oil fields, which have significantly improved the recoverable reserves and recovery rates [2] - The Liuhua 11-1 oil field has produced over 20 million tons of crude oil since its commissioning in 1996, but the extraction rate remains low at only 12.84%, indicating that approximately 140 million tons of crude oil reserves are still untapped beneath the seabed [2]
宁证期货今日早评-20250923
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:51
今 日 早 评 重点品种: 【短评-原油】科威特石油部长Al Barra在接受当地媒体采 访时表示,该国原油产能为每日320万桶,根据OPEC+协议,科 威特将自10月起把原油产量提高至每日255.9万桶,部长同时强 调,OPEC+最新的增产决定与市场动态相关,未来增产措施可视 情况暂停或逆转;能源年鉴2025报告:石油仍然是最大的能源 来源,2024年满足了全球34%的能源总需求。尽管全球需求放 缓,但仍增长了0.7%,首次突破101百万桶/日的水平。评:对 未来供应过剩的担忧盖过了地缘政治紧张带来的影响,国际油 价连续第四天下跌。整体上,OPEC+从今年4月开始逐步增产, 10月将再次增产13.7万桶/日,其增产趋势增加了全球原油供应 量,非OPEC+产油国供应量也维持在高位,原油市场整体供应宽 松的格局使油价承压运行。逢高沽空为佳。 【短评-橡胶】泰国原料胶水价格55.8泰铢/公斤,杯胶价 格50.35泰铢/公斤;海南胶水制全乳价格14500元/吨,制浓乳 胶价格16200元/吨;据统计,截至2025年9月21日,青岛地区天 胶保税和一般贸易合计库存量46.12万吨(库存调整后上期总库 存46.47万吨 ...
港股央企红利50ETF(520990)跌1.58%,成交额1.54亿元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 12:27
Group 1 - The Invesco Great Wall CSI National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (520990) closed down 1.58% on September 22, with a trading volume of 154 million yuan [1] - The fund was established on June 26, 2024, with a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1] - As of September 19, 2024, the fund had 4.308 billion shares and a total size of 4.373 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.00% increase in shares and a 24.88% increase in size year-to-date [1] Group 2 - The current fund managers are Gong Lili and Wang Yang, with returns of 17.76% and 4.19% respectively during their management periods [2] - The fund's top holdings include China Mobile, China Petroleum, COSCO Shipping, CNOOC, China Shenhua, Sinopec, China Telecom, China Unicom, China Merchants Bank, and China Coal Energy, with varying holding percentages [2][3] Group 3 - The top holdings and their respective percentages are as follows: - China Mobile: 10.83% - China Petroleum: 10.55% - COSCO Shipping: 9.66% - CNOOC: 9.03% - China Shenhua: 8.09% - Sinopec: 7.66% - China Telecom: 4.85% - China Unicom: 3.68% - China Merchants Bank: 2.63% - China Coal Energy: 2.57% [3]
中曼石油:将持续做好老井措施和新井部署 为温宿项目稳产打下基础
Quan Jing Wang· 2025-09-22 09:55
中曼石油在2025年上海辖区上市公司集体接待日暨中报业绩说明会活动上回答投资者提问称,公司温宿 项目逐步进入稳产期,产量会存在一定时期内的波动,公司将持续做好老井措施和新井部署,为温宿项 目稳产打下基础。 更多集体接待日详情,请点击:https://rs.p5w.net/html/175611728073329.shtml ...
银河期货原油期货早报-20250922
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 02:42
Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. Core Views - The oil market is expected to face increasing supply pressure in the medium to long term. In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain weak, with Brent crude oil expected to trade in the range of $65 - $67 per barrel [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to be in a state of weak oscillation. The supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, and the valuation is relatively high [4][5][6]. - The fuel oil market, both high - sulfur and low - sulfur, is expected to be weak. High - sulfur fuel oil is affected by high inventories, and low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and lack of demand drivers [6][8][9]. - The PX and PTA markets are expected to oscillate. Their prices are greatly influenced by oil prices and the macro - economic situation, but the supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [10][12][13]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to oscillate in the short term due to the balance between supply reduction and demand increase [13][15]. - The short - fiber market is expected to oscillate, and its processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with prices following raw material trends [14][15][17]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to oscillate. The market supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, with processing fees expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets are expected to be weak. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand lacks support. Styrene may face inventory accumulation pressure [19][20][22]. - The propylene market is expected to be in a state of relaxation, with increasing supply and poor downstream product profits [24][25]. - The PVC market is expected to be weak in the medium term, facing new production capacity pressure and weak demand, but with short - term observation recommended [26][27]. - The caustic soda market is expected to improve in the medium term, with a recommendation to buy on dips [28][29]. - The plastic PP market is expected to be weak in the short term and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended in the medium term [30][31]. - The log market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with a recommendation to observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout [32][33]. - The offset - printing paper market has a pattern of oversupply, and it is recommended to short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price [33][34]. - The pulp market has a certain degree of support below, but the high port inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space. It is recommended to try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract [34][35][37]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and consider taking profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract [37][38][39]. - The butadiene rubber market: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract [40][41][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Crude Oil**: WTI2510 contract closed at $62.68, down $0.89 per barrel (-1.40%); Brent2511 contract closed at $66.68, down $0.76 per barrel (-1.13%); SC2511 contract closed at 491.2 yuan/barrel, down 5.1 yuan, and dropped 7.6 yuan to 483.6 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2511 closed at 3421 points (+0.00%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3372 points (-0.06%) at night [4]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU01 contract closed at 2782 (-1.28%) at night; LU11 closed at 3370 (-1.03%) at night [6]. - **PX & PTA**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6594 (-1.35%) during the day and 6600 (+0.09%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4604 (-1.33%) during the day and 4602 (-0.04%) at night [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4257 (-0.26%) during the day and 4249 (-0.19%) at night [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6284 (-0.95%) during the day and 6288 (+0.06%) at night [14]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5762 (-0.93%) during the day and 5758 (-0.07%) at night [17]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5966 (-0.55%) during the day and 5954 (-0.2%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6992 (-1.16%) during the day and 6971 (-0.3%) at night [19]. - **Propylene**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6388 (-0.56%) during the day and 6393 (+0.08%) at night [24]. - **PVC**: The domestic PVC powder market price increased slightly, with mainstream markets rising by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [26]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong decreased, while the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda remained stable [28]. - **Plastic PP**: The price of LLDPE in some regions decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the price of PP in some regions decreased or remained stable [30]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs remained stable, and the 11 - month contract oscillated downward, closing at 801.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.87% [31]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The market price of high - white offset - printing paper in Shandong remained stable, and the OP2601 contract in the futures market rose 8 yuan/ton at night [33]. - **Pulp**: The futures market declined slightly, and the prices of various types of pulp in the spot market were stable or had slight fluctuations [34][35]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The RU main 01 contract rose 10 points (+0.06%); the NR main 11 contract rose 60 points (+0.49%); the BR main 11 contract rose 50 points (+0.44%) [37][38][40]. Related Information - **Crude Oil**: The central bank is expected to keep the LPR unchanged; some countries recognized the State of Palestine, causing an angry response from Israel; the number of US drilling rigs increased [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Rain in Shandong affected demand, and contracts were being executed; in the Yangtze River Delta, demand was average, and some low - price resources were released; in South China, typhoons affected demand, but some social inventories had no pressure [4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: China's fuel oil imports decreased in August, and some Russian refineries were affected by attacks [6][7][8]. - **PX & PTA**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and polyester decreased slightly, and some PX and PTA plants had maintenance plans [10][11][12]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in China increased slightly, and some plants had restart or maintenance plans [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The sales of polyester yarn were average, and the operating rates of downstream industries remained stable [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The export prices of polyester bottle - chips decreased slightly, and the operating rate of bottle - chips decreased [17][18]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The operating rates of petroleum benzene and its downstream industries changed, and some pure benzene and styrene plants had maintenance or restart plans [19][20][21]. - **Propylene**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased, and some plants restarted or were under maintenance [24][25]. - **PVC**: There was new production capacity pressure, and exports were expected to weaken [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The purchase price of a large alumina plant in Shandong decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine in some regions increased [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of major producers increased, and there was new production capacity expected [30][31]. - **Log**: China's coniferous log imports decreased in August, and the funds of construction sites changed [32]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The production of double - sided offset paper increased, and the inventory of producers increased [33][34]. - **Pulp**: A special paper production line of a company was put into operation, and a pulp mill extended its maintenance time [37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Jilin Petrochemical trial - produced a new type of rubber [39][41]. Logical Analysis - **Crude Oil**: OPEC increased production in August and September, the peak demand season in the Middle East ended, and the supply pressure increased. In the short term, oil prices are expected to be weak [2]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are falling, production is increasing, and the supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, with a relatively high valuation [4][5][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Russian refineries are gradually recovering, high - sulfur exports in the Middle East are increasing, and demand is weakening [8][9]. - **PX & PTA**: The macro - economic situation is weak, and the supply and demand of PX and PTA have decreased. The supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [12][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply has decreased and demand has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The plant operating rate has increased, downstream demand is weak, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The market supply is abundant, demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak; the supply of styrene may increase, and there is inventory accumulation pressure [20][21][22]. - **Propylene**: The propane market is in the peak season, the supply of propylene is increasing, and downstream product profits are poor [24][25]. - **PVC**: There is new production capacity pressure, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The pressure on the spot market in Shandong has been released, and the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to improve [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The demand is in the peak season, but there is new production capacity expected, and the cost support is weak [30][31]. - **Log**: The supply and demand are both weak, with supply expected to contract later [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is weak, and cost support is limited [33][34]. - **Pulp**: The macro - economic situation has improved, but high inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The inventory situation of different types of rubber is different, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of the BR contract has decreased, and short - positions are recommended to be held [40][41][42]. Trading Strategies - **Crude Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are weak; options: observe [1][4]. - **Asphalt**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates weakly; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 at high prices [6][10]. - **PX & PTA**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [10][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [19][20][22]. - **Propylene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate and sort out; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [24][25][26]. - **PVC**: Unilateral trading: observe in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [26][27][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [28][29][30]. - **Plastic PP**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [30][31]. - **Log**: Unilateral trading: observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Unilateral trading: short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [33][34]. - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading: try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage; options: observe [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and take profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [40][41][42].
深圳数百人入选全球前2%顶尖科学家榜单;中国海油一项目累计生产原油突破70万吨丨大湾区财经早参
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-22 00:33
Group 1 - Shenzhen has hundreds of scientists and scholars listed in the "2025 Global Top 2% Scientists List," indicating the city's growing academic strength and international influence [1] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has successfully produced over 700,000 tons of crude oil from the Liuhua 11-1/4-1 oil field, marking a significant achievement in deep-water oil field development [2] - Guangzhou plans to launch low-altitude sightseeing routes along the Pearl River within three years, enhancing tourism and boosting related industries [3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong government has initiated the first meeting of the Northern Metropolis Development and Operation Group, which aims to drive industrial restructuring and multi-engine development in the region [4] - On September 19, the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,070.86 points, down 0.04% [5] - The top gainers in the Shenzhen market included Yuma Technology, Green Island Wind, and Tianshan Electronics, with increases of 20.02%, 20.01%, and 19.98% respectively, while the biggest losers were *ST Dongtong, Haon Automotive Electric, and Zhongqi Automotive, with declines of 14.81%, 11.92%, and 11.79% respectively [6]