Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2025 met expectations, with significant improvement in coal business profitability on a quarter-over-quarter basis [1]. - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit year-over-year, with total revenue of 6.307 billion yuan, down 7.8%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 554 million yuan, down 50.5% [1]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability in Q4 2025 due to the seasonal increase in coal demand [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.912 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.4% quarter-over-quarter but an increase of 2.9% year-over-year. Net profit was 106 million yuan, down 59.3% quarter-over-quarter and 38.3% year-over-year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, coal production and sales were 13.96 million tons and 13.95 million tons, respectively, both down approximately 0.6% year-over-year [2]. Coal Business - The average selling price of coal in Q3 2025 was 268.8 yuan per ton, down 36.4% quarter-over-quarter and 19.8% year-over-year. The cost per ton was 143.8 yuan, down 35.1% quarter-over-quarter and 35.6% year-over-year, leading to a coal business gross margin of 46.5%, which improved by 13.2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2]. Methanol Business - Methanol production and sales in the first three quarters of 2025 were 388,000 tons and 381,000 tons, respectively, showing increases of 16.7% and 24.5% year-over-year. The gross margin for methanol business improved to 12.6% in Q3 2025, recovering from a loss [3]. Railway Business - The railway business saw a decrease in transport volume in Q3 2025, with a gross margin of 65.8%, down 5.3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter due to lower transport prices and increased costs [4]. Profit Forecast - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 654 million yuan, 937 million yuan, and 1.077 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.45 yuan, 0.65 yuan, and 0.75 yuan per share [5][10].

2025年10月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡反弹 | 3 | | 铜：宏观情绪改善，价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 10 | | 铝：重心上移 | 12 | | 氧化铝：减量不持续 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：冶炼累库与镍矿担忧博弈，镍价窄幅震荡 | 14 | | 不锈钢：下方想象力有限，向上缺乏驱动 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：偏强震荡，关注中美磋商结果 | 16 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，底部较有支撑 | 18 | | 多晶硅：关注政策落地信息 | 18 | | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：表需环比向好，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：表需环比向好，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 原木：震荡反复 ...

【导读】*ST荣控：无法与独立董事刘长坤取得联系 中国基金报记者 晨曦 又有A股独董失联！ 10月26日下午，*ST荣控发布《关于独立董事无法取得联系的提示性公告》。 公开信息显示，刘长坤出生于1958年6月，汉族，中共党员，高级经济师，研究生学历，美国休斯敦大学、美国西北大学高级管理人员工 商管理硕士。 刘长坤曾任山东省证券管理办公室秘书处处长、机构处处长，中国证监会济南证管办机构处处长，中国石油化工集团企业改革管理部副主 任、资本运营部副主任、资产公司副总经理及永泰集团有限公司监事会主席等职务。 2020年4月，荣丰控股董事会补选刘长坤为公司独立董事，至今已近5年半。2025年4月，荣丰控股披露的2024年度独立董事述职报告显 示，刘长坤2024年现场出席董事会会议1次、通讯出席董事会会议8次，未出现缺席情况。2024年，刘长坤自荣丰控股获得的税前报酬总 额为12万元。 公开信息显示，荣丰控股的前身荣丰地产成立于1992年，2008年通过与武汉石油实施重大资产重组上市。集团共有7家子公司，主营业务 涵盖房地产开发、物业管理、建筑安装、投资管理、贸易、医疗大健康产业等领域。 *ST荣控称，公司于2025年1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in coal and electricity sectors, with new thermal power projects expected to contribute positively in the future [4]. - The integrated coal and power business model is highlighted as a key advantage, enhancing profitability stability and driving valuation improvements [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 9.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.477 billion yuan, down 19.06% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 556 million yuan, marking a 14.24% year-on-year decline but a 43.12% increase from Q2 2025 [2]. - The gross profit for Q3 2025 was 1.219 billion yuan, showing an increase from Q2 2025 [2]. Coal Production and Sales - In Q3 2025, the company produced 5.61 million tons of raw coal, a year-on-year increase of 7.87%, while the sales volume of commercial coal reached 5.03 million tons, up 7.53% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling price of coal in Q3 2025 was 513 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 7.99% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.00% [3]. Power Generation - The company generated 4.365 billion kWh of electricity in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.29% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 43.44% [3]. Project Development - Ongoing coal and power projects are progressing as planned, with new power plants expected to start operations in 2026, which will contribute to steady growth in electricity generation [4]. - The company is also investing in a wind power project in Lixin, with a total investment of approximately 668 million yuan, expected to achieve grid connection by the end of 2025 [4]. Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.023 billion yuan, 2.256 billion yuan, and 2.524 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.78 yuan, 0.87 yuan, and 0.97 yuan [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market opened mixed on October 23, with the Dow Jones down 0.03%, Nasdaq up 0.04%, and S&P 500 up 0.10% [1][2] - Tesla's stock fell over 4% despite a rebound in third-quarter revenue, with profits declining by more than 30% [1] - Energy stocks generally rose, with ConocoPhillips increasing nearly 3% [1] Group 2 - Beyond Meat, referred to as the "first stock of artificial meat," saw its shares drop over 17% [1] - IBM's stock decreased by 8% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Energy and Energy Global (01142) experienced a significant stock price drop, falling over 50% in the afternoon session and accumulating a decline of over 70% for the month [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock price was reported at 1.16 HKD, with a trading volume of 33.2445 million HKD at the time of writing [1] - The stock has seen a decline of 45.79% at the time of reporting [1] Group 2: Regulatory Concerns - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission highlighted the high concentration of shareholding in Energy and Energy Global, with only 69.1143 million shares (1.01% of the issued share capital) held by other shareholders [1] - The company confirmed that at least 25% of the issued shares will be held by the public as of July 31, 2025, and that it maintains sufficient public float as per listing rules [1] Group 3: Operational Issues - The company announced in early October that its Russian subsidiary's mining license was revoked and plans to appeal this decision [1]

Core Viewpoint - Energy and Energy Global (01142) experienced a significant stock price drop, falling over 50% at one point, with a cumulative decline of over 70% in the month [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of the report, the stock price was down 45.79%, trading at 1.16 HKD, with a trading volume of 33.2445 million HKD [1] Group 2: Regulatory Concerns - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission highlighted the high concentration of shareholding in Energy and Energy Global, noting that only 69.1143 million shares (1.01% of the issued share capital) are held by other shareholders [1] - The company confirmed that at least 25% of the issued shares will be held by the public as of July 31, 2025, and that it maintains sufficient public float as per listing rules [1] Group 3: Operational Issues - In early October, the company announced that its mining license for a subsidiary in Russia was revoked and indicated plans to appeal the decision [1]

Group 1: Event Overview - The 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) will be held in Shanghai from November 5 to 10, 2025, with a theme of "New Era, Shared Future" [1] - The exhibition area is expected to exceed 360,000 square meters, with participation from over 150 countries and regions, maintaining a participation rate of over 70% from Fortune 500 and industry-leading companies [1] - This year's expo will feature a product zone for least developed countries that have established diplomatic relations with China, expanding the existing African product zone [1] Group 2: Key Exhibitors and Sectors - Notable participating companies include Yushutech, Pop Mart, Jindawei, and Longan Automobile, among others [5] - The expo will showcase various sectors, including medical equipment and healthcare products, with participation from 700 Fortune 500 pharmaceutical companies and the top 10 medical equipment companies [9] - The automobile and smart mobility sector will feature 300 Fortune 500 exhibitors [11] Group 3: Related Conferences and Activities - The expo will host significant conferences such as the "Digital Economy Empowerment" forum and the "China-Latin America Economic and Trade Cooperation Think Tank Forum" [1] - Other notable events include discussions on intellectual property protection and the internationalization of enterprises, highlighting the importance of innovation and collaboration [1] Group 4: Trade Performance Insights - In September, China's import and export growth rates exceeded expectations, with a notable rebound in imports, particularly in machinery and electrical products [2] - The strong rebound in trade reflects the resilience of China's foreign trade amid tariff disruptions, reinforcing its position as a global manufacturing hub [2]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.81%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.89% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.1 trillion, a decrease of 53.5 billion compared to the previous trading day [1][5] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3899.05, down 0.44% [2] - Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12971.98, down 0.81% [2] - ChiNext Index closed at 3056.23, down 0.89% [2] - The North 50 Index showed a positive performance, increasing by 1.19% to 1475.71 [2] Sector Performance - Strong sectors included engineering machinery, plant-based meat, and wind power, while gold and battery sectors faced declines [3] - Notable stocks in the strong sectors included Shenke Co. and Shihua Machinery, which achieved consecutive gains [2] - The controlled nuclear fusion concept saw a resurgence, with stocks like Antai Technology and Atlantic both hitting the daily limit [2] Market Sentiment - 54.26% of users expressed a bullish outlook on the market [4] - A total of 2337 stocks rose, while 2893 stocks fell, with 53 stocks hitting the daily limit [4]

Political Landscape - The U.S. is undergoing a "rightward shift" politically, reversing trends from the post-Cold War era, with significant ideological debates emerging domestically[3] - The upcoming midterm elections in November 2026 pose a risk for Trump, especially if economic downturns or conflicts arise before then[4] Economic Outlook - Inflation is currently manageable, with the Federal Reserve expected to lower interest rates two more times in 2025, following a recent cut[8] - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with corporate investments increasing as tariff uncertainties diminish, potentially supporting GDP growth over the next three years[9] Trade Relations - The U.S. has reached tariff framework agreements with most countries, with China being a notable exception; a key negotiation window is the APEC summit on October 1, 2025[7] - Recent U.S. sanctions on Chinese companies have escalated trade tensions, with China retaliating by halting soybean purchases from the U.S.[5] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to diversify portfolios, favoring broad-based ETFs to mitigate risks associated with individual stocks[10] - The recommended asset allocation is 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds, with specific ETFs suggested for exposure to various sectors[10] Sector Analysis - The S&P 500's static P/E ratio is 28, above the historical average of 18, but excluding the M7 tech stocks reveals a more reasonable P/E of 19 for the remaining companies[11] - Financial and healthcare sectors are highlighted as undervalued, with P/E ratios of approximately 17 and 16, respectively, presenting investment opportunities[12] Emerging Trends - The AI sector is poised for significant growth, with major players like OpenAI and Google leading the charge; OpenAI's valuation has surged from under $100 billion to over $500 billion in two years[16] - The demand for gold is expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions, with recommendations for a 10%-20% allocation in investment portfolios[13]