1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The outcome of the Israel-Iran conflict depends on the damage to Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran's level of retaliation. Market expectations are reflected in the rise of Middle - East stock markets on June 22 [8]. - PVC has short - term fluctuations and long - term downward pressure due to high production, high inventory, and uncertain export prospects [9][11][12]. - Stock index futures have a short - term consolidation but a medium - term bullish trend. There are opportunities to buy on dips [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Israel - Iran Conflict - After the US attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran launched a "retaliatory attack". The US is ready for dialogue on June 23. The conflict's development will affect the market [8][25]. - On June 22, Middle - East stock markets opened higher, with the Israeli TA - 125 index rising 1% and the TA - 35 benchmark index rising 1.2% [8]. 3.2 PVC - PVC has a short - term shock, but the trend is under pressure. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term. The export demand can only relieve the pressure temporarily, and the overall drive is downward [9][11][12]. - In the future, there will be more capacity put into production, with an expected 1.1 million tons in June - July. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented in early July, and the domestic demand related to real estate is weak [11]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures - The short - term trend is related to the Israel - Iran situation. The medium - term trend is positive due to policy support, low interest rates, and capital market system reforms. There are opportunities to buy on dips [13]. 3.4 Other Commodities 3.4.1 Precious Metals - Gold: Geopolitical risks have increased. Silver: Continuing to rise [16][20]. 3.4.2 Base Metals - Copper: The strengthening of LME copper spot prices supports the price [16][26]. - Aluminum: Waiting for the inventory inflection point. Alumina: Narrow - range fluctuations. Aluminum alloy: Range - bound fluctuations [16][29]. - Zinc: Supply surplus may become apparent, and the price is under pressure [16][32]. - Lead: Weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating [16][35]. - Tin: Tight current situation but weak expectations [16][38]. - Nickel: The future expectation of the nickel ore end is loose, restricting the upward elasticity of the smelting end. Stainless steel: Supply and demand are both marginally weak, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [16][43]. 3.4.3 Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate lithium: As the delivery month approaches, attention should be paid to the willingness to accept warehouse receipts [16][50]. - Industrial silicon: Limited upside space, suitable for short - selling on rallies. Polysilicon: Continue to short [16][52]. - Iron ore: Expectations are volatile, and prices are range - bound [16][55]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Wide - range fluctuations [16][57][58]. - Ferrosilicon: Fluctuates widely due to sector sentiment resonance. Silicomanganese: Fluctuates widely with firm ore quotes [16][61]. - Coke and coking coal: Fluctuate widely with an increase in hot metal production [16][65][66]. - Steam coal: Demand needs to be released, and prices fluctuate widely [16][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides investment outlooks for various commodity futures, including bullish, bearish, and neutral stances on specific commodities. 2. Core Viewpoints - For commodity futures, a bullish approach is recommended for crude oil, methanol, and silver [1][2]. - The stock index is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward bias due to policy expectations from the 2025 Lujiazui Forum [1]. - Treasury bonds are likely to trade in a range, with short - term support more evident under the influence of policy and liquidity [1]. - Geopolitical risks continue to drive the volatility of gold and silver prices, and gold is expected to remain bullish in the long - term [1][4]. - Copper prices will trade in a range due to supply constraints and uncertain macro - economic expectations [4]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward bias, supported by low inventory [4]. - Nickel prices are likely to continue to decline towards cost support, but short - selling risks are high near the bottom [4]. - Lithium carbonate prices will be under pressure due to oversupply [6]. - Silicon energy prices are expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to sell put options [6]. - Black metal prices will trade in a range in the short - term, affected by geopolitical factors and inventory changes [6]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to decline slightly, with an oversupply situation in the medium - to long - term [8]. - Soda ash and float glass prices are bearish, and corresponding short - selling and arbitrage strategies are recommended [8]. - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and it is recommended to buy call options [8]. - Methanol prices are rising, but there are risks of sharp fluctuations [10]. - Polyolefin prices are rising, and attention should be paid to the expiration of options [10]. - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and a long - position strategy is recommended [10]. - Rubber prices are expected to decline slightly due to supply increases and demand blockages [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The A - share market has rebounded and stabilized, but there are no new fundamental positives, and the market is in a state of stock - capital game with continuous theme rotation [1]. - The opening of the 2025 Lujiazui Forum boosts policy expectations, which may drive the stock index to fluctuate upward [1]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds rose across the board yesterday, with short - term bonds performing more strongly [1]. - Economic and financial data are still divergent, and attention should be paid to incremental policies during the Lujiazui Forum [1]. - The market's optimistic expectation of monetary policy easing is strengthened, and the short - term support is more evident under the loose liquidity [1]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East drive gold and silver price fluctuations, and the long - term cycle of debt, the dollar, and inflation is still favorable for gold [1][4]. - The gold - silver ratio remains at a high level, and silver may have pulsed fluctuations [4]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Copper prices trade in a range. Supply is tight, but macro - economic expectations are uncertain, and real - demand is cautious [4]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices fluctuate with an upward bias. Supply constraints are clear, and low inventory provides support, although demand is uncertain [4]. Nickel - Nickel prices continue to decline towards cost support due to an oversupply situation, but short - selling risks are high near the bottom [4]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure due to an oversupply situation, with increasing supply and decreasing demand efficiency [6]. Silicon Energy - Silicon energy prices are expected to trade in a range. Supply increases slightly, and demand is weak, but the probability of a sharp decline is low at the current price level [6]. Black Metals Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to trade in a narrow range at low levels. Demand has weakened seasonally, but inventory is low, and geopolitical factors and coal production cuts relieve the downward pressure on furnace material prices [6]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices will follow steel prices and trade in a narrow range. Supply is increasing seasonally, and demand is stable, but the spot price has more downward pressure than the futures price [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to decline slightly. Coking coal has a long - term oversupply situation, and coke has weak supply and demand [8]. Building Materials Soda Ash - Soda ash prices are bearish. Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, and inventory is concentrated in upstream factories [8]. Float Glass - Float glass prices are bearish. Demand is expected to be weak, supply is loose, and corresponding short - selling and arbitrage strategies are recommended [8]. Energy Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, driven by geopolitical factors. It is recommended to buy call options [8]. Methanol - Methanol prices are rising, but domestic spot trading has weakened, and there are risks of sharp fluctuations [10]. Chemicals - Polyolefin prices are rising. The market is worried about reduced imports from the Middle East, and attention should be paid to the expiration of options [10]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Supply may be affected by high - temperature risks, and demand is relatively resilient [10]. Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to decline slightly. Demand transmission is blocked, supply is increasing seasonally, and the rebound space is limited [10].

Market Overview - On June 16, US stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all rising over 1% [1] - The Dow Jones index reached 42,646.75, up 1.06%, while the S&P 500 was at 6,042.23, up 1.09%, and the Nasdaq Composite at 19,684.84, up 1.43% [2] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks saw collective gains, with Meta rising nearly 3%, Nvidia up nearly 2%, and Tesla and Microsoft increasing over 1% [2] - Bank stocks also performed well, with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup both rising over 2%, while Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America increased over 1% [2] - Quantum computing stocks surged, with Arqit Quantum up over 24%, Quantum Computing rising nearly 13%, D-Wave Quantum increasing over 9%, and Rigetti Computing up over 6% [2] Chinese Concept Stocks - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose over 2%, with notable individual stock performances including Futu Holdings up over 6%, Bilibili nearly 5%, and iQIYI over 4% [3] - Xpeng Motors and Li Auto both increased over 3%, while Alibaba rose nearly 3% and JD.com and Baidu increased over 2% [3] Brain-Computer Interface Stock - The stock of Brain Rebirth surged dramatically, experiencing multiple trading halts, and was up over 328% at one point [3] - The stock opened at 26.20, reached a high of 67.09, and had a trading volume of 883,200 shares, with a market capitalization of 33.175 billion [4] - Despite the significant stock price increase, Brain Rebirth is an early-stage biotech company focused on developing traditional Chinese medicine for neurocognitive disorders, with no revenue reported from product sales from 2021 to 2024 [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. military's dependence on rare earth elements has reached 97%, indicating a critical reliance that cannot be easily negotiated away [3] - The U.S. has limited domestic refining capabilities, with only 5% of global refining capacity, highlighting a significant vulnerability in the supply chain [3][5] - The Biden administration's efforts to establish a domestic rare earth supply chain have shown limited results, as reported by the Wall Street Journal [5] Group 2 - In 2023, 74% of the rare earth products imported by the U.S. came from China, underscoring the ongoing dependency on foreign sources [6] - Major U.S. companies like Apple and Tesla are facing supply chain pressures related to rare earth materials, prompting them to explore diversification strategies [8] - The shift in global market dynamics is leading to a reconfiguration of power, with countries moving towards de-dollarization and alternative currency settlements [10] Group 3 - The International Monetary Fund reported that the U.S. dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 58.9% in Q1 2024, the lowest in 20 years, indicating a decline in U.S. influence [10] - The current situation reflects a broader issue for the U.S. in adjusting its stance towards China, as reliance on critical materials contradicts efforts for technological decoupling [11] - The resilience of China's industrial and policy frameworks suggests that the U.S. may face significant challenges in maintaining its position without addressing structural issues [13]

以下文章来源于东方财富网 ，作者十字路口 东方财富网 . | 3 0 3/ 4 | | --- | | 甲骨文 | 215.220 7.69% 5371万股 | | --- | --- | | ORCL | | | 苹果 | 196.450 -1.38% 5145万股 | | AAPL | | | 微软 | 474.960 -0.82% 1681万股 | | MSFT | | | | Meta Platforms Inc-A 682.870 -1.51% 927万股 | | META | | | 亚马逊 | 212.100 -0.53% 2934万股 | | AMZN | | | 维萨 | 352.850 -4.99% 1418万股 | | 谷歌-A | 174.670 -0.59% 2766万股 | | GOOGL | | | 博通 | 248.700 -2.88% 1903万股 | | AVGO | | | 超威半导体 | 116.160 -1.97% 3970万股 | | AMD | | | 联合健康 | 313.530 -1.56% 1376万股 | | UNH | | （图片来源：东方财富APP，统 ...

一觉醒来，全球股市遭重挫，道指跌超700 点， 标普指数跌回6000点下方， 德法意股指 收跌超1%， 英国富时100指数收跌0.39%。本周德国股指跌超 3.2%，丹麦股指累涨4.7% 。 欧元区蓝筹股指数本周累跌约2.6%。 由于担心原油供应减少， 原油价格一度飙涨13%， 收涨超7% 创2022年3月以来最大单日涨幅。 避险情绪则助推 黄金收盘创新高， 涨逾1.4% 。 不过油价引发的通胀担忧短期压制避险买盘，美债收益率先跌后涨。 发生了什么？ 以色列袭击伊朗，伊朗发起报复行动， 密集发射上百枚导弹 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊13日晚间通过伊朗官方媒体发表声明，称伊朗武装部队将采取武力行动，彻底摧毁以色列政权。 伊朗周五晚向以色列发射了"数百 枚"导弹。 此前据新华社报道，13日，哈梅内伊的国际事务高级顾问阿里·阿克巴尔·韦拉亚提发表声明，宣布美国参与了以色列的袭击。 声明中，韦拉亚提强调，此次袭击发生在国际原子能机构理事会通过反伊朗决议后，以及第六轮伊美核谈判即将开始之前，并将此次袭击描述为以色列面 对伊朗日益增长的实力而"绝望和恐惧"的表现。 声明中，韦拉亚提表示，当前伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队正在准备回应。 周 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 recorded 248,000, exceeding the expected 240,000, marking the highest level since October 2024 [9] - The U.S. core PPI for May recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3%, indicating a cooling in inflation [9] - The U.S. dollar index fell for the second consecutive day, closing down 0.78% at 97.864, the lowest level in over three years [1][6] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Spot gold prices rose by 0.94%, closing at $3,386.83 per ounce, while spot silver prices increased by 0.3%, closing at $36.36 per ounce [1][6] - WTI crude oil prices rose by 0.6%, closing at $67.58 per barrel, and Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.32%, closing at $69.68 per barrel [2][6] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.24%, S&P 500 up 0.38%, and Nasdaq up 0.2% [2][6] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 1.36%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 2.2%, indicating a bearish trend in the market [3] - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.01% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.11%, amidst a trading volume of 1.27 trillion yuan [4] Group 4: Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, precious metals, biomedicine, and insurance stocks showed strength, while automotive and aviation stocks declined [3] - In the A-share market, sectors such as new materials, precious metals, and innovative drugs performed well, while the port shipping and liquor sectors faced declines [4] Group 5: Corporate Developments - Ant Group's financial technology arm has initiated the application process for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong, indicating a move towards digital currency regulation [1][14] - AMD announced its next-generation AI chip series, MI400, showcasing advancements in technology [11]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the S&P 500 ending a three-day winning streak as investors assessed international trade developments and the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May [1] - Traders increased bets on the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts in September, with President Trump urging the Fed to lower rates again [1] Index Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,865.77, down 1.10 points; the Nasdaq Composite fell 99.11 points (0.50%) to 19,615.88; the S&P 500 dropped 16.57 points (0.27%) to 6,022.24 [2] - The S&P 500 index had six out of the last seven trading days in the green, remaining less than 2% below its record high set in February [2] Sector Performance - The S&P 500's eleven sectors saw seven decline and four rise, with Consumer Discretionary and Materials leading the losses at 1.02% and 0.98%, respectively; Energy and Utilities led the gains at 1.49% and 0.05% [3] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Intel dropping over 6% after Apple announced it would end support for Intel chips in its macOS, marking the end of a 20-year partnership [3] - Financial stocks mostly fell, with U.S. Bancorp down over 2%, while some firms like UBS, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank saw gains of over 1% [4] - Energy stocks rose across the board, with U.S. Energy up over 8%, and several companies like Petrobras and ConocoPhillips gaining over 3% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, particularly the slight declines in major indices, and highlights the impact of inflation data and trade tensions on investor sentiment [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On June 11, the Dow Jones fell by 1.10 points to 42865.77, the Nasdaq dropped by 99.11 points (0.50%) to 19615.88, and the S&P 500 decreased by 16.57 points (0.27%) to 6022.24 [2]. - After a recent rebound, traders took profits, with the S&P 500 index having risen in 6 out of the last 7 trading days, nearing its record high from February [2]. Inflation Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, which was below market expectations [3][4]. - The annual inflation rate remained at 2.4%, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, also below expectations [5][8]. - The data indicates that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have not significantly impacted inflation, as key categories like automobiles and clothing saw price declines [5][6]. Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Following the inflation data release, traders increased bets on the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts in September [7][8]. - U.S. Vice President Pence echoed President Trump's call for the Fed to ease monetary policy, emphasizing that the current inflation data does not exert upward pressure on prices [7][8]. Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, seven out of eleven sectors declined, with consumer discretionary and materials leading the losses at 1.02% and 0.98%, respectively [10]. - Energy stocks saw an overall increase, with major companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron rising over 1% [11]. - Notably, Intel's stock dropped over 6% after Apple announced it would cease support for Intel chips in its macOS [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The allocation value of stock indices continues to increase, with a clear upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. - The intention to protect liquidity in the bond market is clear, and the expectation of the bond market has slightly improved, but it is difficult to form a trend - based market [1]. - For precious metals, the short - term gold price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the - money put options. Silver has a high probability of upward valuation repair [4]. - For base metals, copper, aluminum, and nickel prices are expected to be range - bound, while alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - For energy and chemical products, crude oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility; methanol and polyolefin prices are expected to decline [10]. - For building materials, the prices of soda ash and glass are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions [8]. - For steel and coal, the prices of steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to be volatile, with a weakening trend [5][8]. - For agricultural products, cotton prices are expected to be range - bound, and rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Indices - Last week, the A - share market was strong, with communication and non - ferrous metals leading the gains, and home appliances and automobiles leading the losses. The trading volume on Friday decreased slightly to 1.18 trillion yuan. - In June, the A - share market started well, with technology stocks driving market sentiment and slightly boosting trading volume. - Overseas macro uncertainties have reduced global economic growth expectations, but Chinese assets have attracted the attention of foreign institutions. - The upward trend of stock indices is clear, but short - term breakthroughs require an increase in trading volume. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. Bonds - The central bank's intention to protect the market is clear, and the early announcement of repurchase operations has boosted market confidence. - Last Friday, bond futures closed higher. After the China - US call, China - US economic and trade consultations will be held in London. - The macro situation is uncertain, and the bond market is difficult to form a trend - based market. Short - term market conditions are mainly affected by liquidity [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the money put options. - Silver: The gold - silver ratio is high, and the valuation of silver is low. If the gold price remains strong, the probability of upward valuation repair of silver increases. It is advisable to hold short out - of - the money put options [4]. Base Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a range. Macro uncertainties remain high, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. - The demand is affected by macro uncertainties and the domestic consumption off - season. - LME inventories are decreasing, while COMEX and SHFE inventories are increasing. Copper prices are expected to remain range - bound [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The supply is uncertain, but the short - term impact is weakening. The resumption of production is expected to increase supply pressure, and prices may continue to run close to the cost line. - Aluminum: The supply is constrained, with support at the bottom, but the demand policy is uncertain, and the directional driving force is limited [4]. Nickel - The supply of nickel ore is gradually recovering, and the supply of refined nickel is in excess. The demand from the stainless steel and new energy sectors is weak. - The price of nickel is expected to remain range - bound, and it is advisable to hold short call options [4]. Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, and geopolitical disturbances continue. The number of US oil rigs has decreased significantly. - The demand for gasoline and diesel in the US is lower than expected. Oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility [10]. Methanol - Overseas methanol plant operating rates have increased, and the price of thermal coal is stable. - Affected by positive factors such as the recovery of olefin plant demand and China - US talks, methanol futures prices have rebounded, but further upside is limited [10]. Polyolefins - The production of polyolefins has increased slightly, and more production capacity is expected to resume this week. - Downstream industries are entering the off - season, and the operating rate is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long the L - PP spread [10]. Building Materials Soda Ash - The production of soda ash is expected to increase in June, while demand is weak. The supply is relatively loose, and inventory is high. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the SA509 contract and go short on rebounds near the cash cost line [2][8]. Glass - The glass market has entered the off - season, with weak demand and high inventory. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the FG509 contract and consider long - short spread strategies [8]. Steel and Coal Steel Products - The spot prices of steel products are weak, and demand has entered the off - season. - The results of the China - US trade negotiations will affect market sentiment. It is recommended to hold short call options for rebar and short positions for hot - rolled coils [5][8]. Iron Ore - The static supply - demand structure of imported iron ore is healthy, but the supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand may decline. - It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination or short the I2601 contract with a stop - loss [5][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - The supply of coking coal is in excess, and the price rebound is not sustainable. - The demand for coke is weak, and the price is under pressure [8]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The weather in the Xinjiang cotton - producing area is normal, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. - It is advisable to hold positions patiently and wait for a breakthrough in the price range [10]. Rubber - The supply of rubber is increasing, while demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [10].