Investment Rating - Maintain Outperform rating with a target price adjusted to RMB 32.50 [1][9] Core Views - The company has cleared goodwill impairment risks and is expanding plasma collection stations through both organic and external growth, establishing a foundation for future growth. The potential impact of tariffs on imported albumin may benefit domestic albumin products [1][9] - The company reported a full-year revenue of RMB 1.74 billion, a decrease of 34.58%, while net profit increased by 67.18% to RMB 397 million, primarily due to a low base from goodwill impairment in 2023 [1][9] - The product structure is continuously optimized, with blood product revenue growing by 4.32% to RMB 1.51 billion, despite a slight decline in gross profit margin [1][9] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2027 show a recovery trend, with net profit expected to reach RMB 753 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [3][6] - The company has a projected EPS of RMB 1.16 for 2025 and RMB 1.50 for 2027, with a PE ratio of 28X for 2025 [1][9] - The company has 20 operating plasma stations and plans to increase plasma collection volume to 630.6 tons in 2024, a 10.4% increase [1][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to RMB 32.50 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has cleared goodwill impairment risks and is expanding its plasma collection stations through both organic growth and acquisitions, establishing a foundation for future growth. The potential impact of tariffs on imported albumin may benefit domestic albumin products [1][9]. - The company reported a full-year revenue of RMB 1.74 billion in 2024, a decrease of 34.58%, while net profit increased by 67.18% to RMB 397 million, primarily due to a low base from goodwill impairment in 2023 [1][9]. - The product structure is continuously optimized, with blood product revenue growing by 4.32% to RMB 1.51 billion in 2024, despite a slight decline in gross profit margin [1][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for the upcoming years have been adjusted, with 2025 EPS projected at RMB 1.16 and 2026 EPS at RMB 1.33, while a new forecast for 2027 EPS is set at RMB 1.50 [1][9]. - The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with plasma collection volume projected to reach 630.6 tons in 2024, reflecting a 10.4% increase [1][9]. - The financial outlook includes a projected net profit of RMB 585 million for 2025, with a net profit margin expected to improve over the years [1][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][14]. Core Insights - The company's blood products business is experiencing steady growth, with a projected revenue of 8.176 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 2.67% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 2.193 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 23.25% [3][7]. - The company has successfully increased its plasma collection volume to over 1,600 tons, achieving a historical high. This growth is supported by the acquisition of 100% equity in Nanyue Biological, which will enhance its production capacity and market position [4][6]. - The company’s self-operated blood products generated revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 60.4%, indicating strong profitability despite a temporary slowdown in revenue growth due to industry policies [4][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 8.804 billion yuan, 9.311 billion yuan, and 9.756 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.374 billion yuan, 2.605 billion yuan, and 2.851 billion yuan for the same years [7][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.33 yuan in 2024 to 0.43 yuan by 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 20.36 to 15.84 over the same period [11][12].

证券研究报告：医药生物 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-04-25 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 6.72 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）66.38 | / 66.34 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）446 | / 446 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 8.13 / 6.51 | | 资产负债率(%) | 5.0% | | 市盈率 | 20.36 | | 第一大股东 | 海盈康(青岛)医疗科技 | | 有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:蔡明子 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110001 Email:caimingzi@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈成 SAC 登记编号:S1340524020001 Email:chencheng@cnpsec.com 上海莱士(002252) 血制品业务稳健发展，盈利能力维持高水平 l 血制品业务稳健发展 公司自营血制品实现收入 44.3 亿元（+2.5%），其中白蛋白 14.9 亿元（+4.4%）、静丙 17.0 亿元（-5.9%）、其他血制品 12.3 亿元 （+14 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade war is in a stalemate phase, making unexpected stimulus and compromise-based trade agreements unlikely to occur [2][3][4] Group 1: Economic Resilience and Policy Options - The stalemate phase tests the economic resilience of both countries, with China having more policy options, greater space, and longer endurance compared to the U.S. [4] - For China, maintaining its interests and bottom line in the trade war is more important than sustaining a specific economic growth figure [3] - The U.S. faces challenges such as supply chain disruptions, production slowdowns, and inflationary pressures, which limit its fiscal and monetary policy options [6] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is a key element in boosting confidence during the trade war, with strong government commitment to stabilize the capital market [9] - Since April 7, significant inflows into passive ETFs have been observed, with a total net inflow of 1.5 trillion yuan into large-cap ETFs and 491 billion yuan into small-cap ETFs [10] - The central bank's liquidity support for the stock market indicates a long-term holding strategy, aiming to stabilize the domestic stock market regardless of overseas fluctuations [10] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market may be a weak link in the short term, but there is still a noticeable underweight of mainland funds in Hong Kong stocks [11][12] - The potential for future capital inflows into the Hong Kong market is significant, driven by both domestic and international investors seeking to diversify their portfolios [12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - From a risk-averse perspective, sectors such as autonomous technology, those benefiting from European capital expenditure expansion, essential consumer goods, stable dividends, and materials not reliant on short-term performance are expected to outperform [13][14] - Key trends to monitor include the increasing recognition of China's technological self-sufficiency, rising European demand in various sectors, and strengthened trade and technological cooperation between China and non-U.S. markets [14]

星标 ★ IPO日报 精彩文章第一时间推送 血制品行业整合并购再提速。 近期，上海莱士血液制品股份有限公司（002252.SZ）（下称"上海莱士"、"上市公司"）发布公告，拟以支付现金的方式，收购湖南血制品企业南岳生物 制药有限公司（下称"南岳生物"、"标的公司"）100%股权。 资料显示，上海莱士是我国目前营收规模最大的血制品企业，而南岳生物系湖南省唯一一家血液制品生产厂家，对于"得浆站者得天下"的血制品赛道，上 海莱士再下一城。 值得一提的是，去年6月，海尔集团斥资125亿元拿下上海莱士20%股权，此次是海尔集团入主上海莱士后发起的第一笔并购动作。 制图： 佘诗婕 一路"买买买" 近年来，血制品企业间并购整合不断，行业格局加速成型。 由于血制品是生物安全性极高的行业，2001年5月起，国家对血制品行业实行总量控制，不再批准新的生产企业，血制品行业呈现存量竞争的局面。 并且单采血浆站只能由血制品企业设立，且在一个采浆区域内仅可设置一个单采血浆站，新建浆站的平均获批周期长达18至24个月。 对比新建浆站需要投入的人力物力，企业往往倾向于选择"买买买"的外延并购方式，以实现快速扩张。 2024年8月，天坛生物通 ...

PPPPAAAARRRRTTTT 1111 核心资产将迎来新周期 从政策经济周期、相对盈利优势、长线资金定价和市场生态变化四个维度看，核心资产将迎来新周期， GARP策略预计将明显跑赢。 图片来源：摄图网 聚焦核心资产 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 杨帆 玛西高娃 崔嵘 遥远 关税进展仍有不确定性，但衰退预期交易正加速切换到衰退交易，中美周期同频时点可能提前。风格上， 从政策经济周期、相对盈利优势、长线资金定价和市场生态变化四个维度看，核心资产将迎来新周期， GARP策略预计将明显跑赢。配置上，短期建议聚焦自主可控、军工、内需、红利四大方向，长期建议关注 全球各国制造业重建需求与中国技术出海的趋势。 风险因素：中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策力度、实施效果或经济复苏不及预期；海内外 宏观流动性超预期收紧；俄乌、中东地区冲突进一步升级；我国房地产库存消化不及预期。 点击查看全文 外部扰动期，关注内循环 秦培景 刘易 王冠然 侯苏洋 卿施典 任恒毅 白弘伟 田鹏 王涛 王子昂 美国"对等关税"加征幅度和广度超预期之后，中国对美反制力度明显升级，外循环扰动加大，市场风险偏好 下降，建议关注内循环为 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the pharmaceutical industry in the context of increased tariffs, particularly focusing on the impact of U.S.-China trade relations on various segments of the industry [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Innovation Drugs**: - Innovation drugs are less affected by tariffs as they are considered intangible assets. Their unique platforms and essential nature allow them to mitigate risks through various strategies, maintaining overseas business development [2][3]. - **Blood Products Sector**: - The blood products sector in China is significantly impacted due to a large share of imported albumin (20%-25% from the U.S.). High tariffs may lead to increased costs, shifting the industry from a surplus to a tight balance, potentially resulting in both volume and price increases [2][3]. - **Leading Manufacturing Companies**: - Major Chinese manufacturers like WuXi AppTec and Weigao Medical have global production layouts. They can reduce the impact of tariffs by reallocating production capacity in regions where tariffs are not imposed, benefiting the specialty raw materials and generic drug supply chains [2][3]. - **Domestic Demand**: - The importance of domestic demand is highlighted under tariff pressures. Government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption are expected to enhance profitability in related sectors such as health supplements, pharmacies, and medical services [2][3]. - **Investment Opportunities**: - Investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical industry are primarily concentrated in unaffected innovation drugs, strategically advantageous chemical products, and consumer sectors stimulated by domestic demand [2][3]. Additional Important Insights - **Service Sectors**: - There is potential for growth in the ophthalmology services, dental care services, and traditional Chinese medicine OTC sectors, which are currently at low price and profit expectations, indicating a possible turning point for improvement [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration, highlighting both the sectors that may benefit and those that may face challenges due to increased tariffs and trade barriers [3][4]. Beneficial Industries - **Semiconductors**: The increase in tariffs is aimed at promoting the return of manufacturing to the U.S., particularly in high-tech industries. This situation is expected to benefit domestic semiconductor companies as the competitiveness of imported mature process chips declines in the Chinese market [6][7][8]. - **Agriculture**: The imposition of tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, such as soybeans and corn, is anticipated to support domestic prices. The focus on self-sufficiency in seed technology is expected to accelerate domestic agricultural innovation [9][10]. - **Blood Products**: The increase in tariffs on U.S. blood products is likely to enhance the competitiveness of domestic alternatives, as the price advantage of imported products diminishes [11]. - **Duty-Free Industry**: The new "immediate refund" policy for duty-free shopping is expected to boost the duty-free sector, with significant sales growth reported in recent months [12][14]. Challenging Industries - **Consumer Electronics**: The trade war has led to increased production costs for companies like Apple, which may result in higher prices for consumers and potential declines in sales [15][16]. - **Medical Supplies**: The medical low-value consumables sector, particularly products like syringes and needles, is expected to face significant challenges due to increased tariffs, which will reduce price competitiveness in the U.S. market [17][18]. - **Shipping and Non-Ferrous Metals**: The potential decline in global trade volumes due to escalating trade tensions is likely to adversely affect the shipping industry, particularly container and dry bulk shipping [19][20]. Dual-Edged Sword Industries - **Banking**: The banking sector may experience indirect impacts from high tariffs, with potential increases in non-performing loans in manufacturing and reduced credit demand. However, high dividend yields may attract investors seeking stability [21]. - **Insurance**: The insurance industry faces mixed effects, with potential growth in demand for savings-type products due to market uncertainty, while investment returns may be pressured by market volatility [22]. - **Home Appliances**: Companies in the home appliance sector may benefit from domestic consumption policies, although those heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. may face increased costs and competitive pressures [23][24].

Group 1: Basic Chemicals - DuPont China Group is under antitrust investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation due to alleged violations of the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China, which may benefit domestic substitutes in semiconductor materials and ion exchange membranes [4] Group 2: Automotive - Since Trump's administration, a total of 45% additional tariffs have been imposed on automobiles and auto parts exported from China to the U.S., impacting trade and potentially affecting chip and automotive electronic components [5] - Companies with core component self-research capabilities and those localizing production in the U.S. or Mexico are expected to perform well [5] Group 3: Pharmaceuticals - The U.S. government announced a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the U.S. starting April 10, 2025, which presents significant opportunities for the blood products industry [6] Group 4: Company Reports - Dashi Holdings, the exclusive franchisee of Domino's Pizza in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, has accelerated market expansion, reaching 1,008 stores by the end of 2024 [7] - Mega Xincai reported a revenue of 2.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 210 million yuan for 2024, with significant year-on-year growth of 88% and 26% respectively [8] - Naipu Mining achieved a revenue of 1.12 billion yuan, a 19.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 120 million yuan, up 45.5% [9] - Guizhou Moutai's total revenue for 2024 was 174.1 billion yuan, with a net profit of 86.2 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.7% and 15.4% respectively [10]