Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant trends in liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, indicating a mixed economic outlook with specific sectors showing growth while others face challenges. Group 1: Liquidity - The London gold spot price reached a historical high this week, increasing by 3.74% compared to last week [3] - The BCI small enterprise financing environment index for May 2025 is at 49.09, up by 2.20% month-on-month [3] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in May 2025 is -5.6 percentage points, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [3] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in early June 2025 is 2.159 million tons, up by 3.25% month-on-month [4] - Price changes this week include rebar down by 2.23%, cement price index up by 1.86%, rubber up by 2.21%, coke down by 5.65%, coking coal down by 1.05%, and iron ore down by 1.36% [4] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, asphalt, and full steel tire operating rates changed by -0.07 percentage points, +0.90 percentage points, -1.0 percentage points, and -2.23 percentage points respectively [4] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass remained unchanged this week, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -762 yuan/ton [5] - The operating rate of flat glass this week is 75.42% [5] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity prices this week include cold-rolled steel up by 0.54%, copper up by 0.10%, and aluminum up by 2.87%, with corresponding gross profit changes of +78.85%, -18.19%, and +24.59% respectively [6] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 77.98%, an increase of 4.12 percentage points [6] Group 5: Subcategories - Tungsten concentrate prices remain at the highest level since 2011 [7] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down by 1.39% [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20,760 yuan/ton, up by 2.87%, with estimated profit at 3,004 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up by 24.59% [7] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore this week is 4.13 [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 130 yuan/ton this week [8] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 280 yuan/ton, down by 100 yuan/ton [8] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in May 2025 is 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points [9] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) this week is 1,243.05 points, up by 7.63% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 79.50%, up by 1.30 percentage points [9] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.25% this week, with the best-performing cyclical sector being commercial vehicles, up by 7.24% [10] - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently 0.51, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Market Overview - As of June 6, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port reached 3.297 million tons, an increase of 168,000 tons week-on-week; Lianyungang Port's inventory was 5,000 tons; and Qinzhou Port's inventory was 900,000 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons. The total manganese ore inventory across ports was 4.202 million tons, up by 132,000 tons from the previous period [1] - As of June 9, the mainstream market price for 6517 silicon manganese was between 5,300-5,400 RMB/ton, down 4.26% week-on-week and down 31.8% year-on-year, indicating a downward trend in prices [1] Futures Market - On June 9, the number of manganese silicon futures warehouse receipts on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 102,565, an increase of 1,153 from the previous trading day [2] Institutional Insights - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that prices are primarily following coking coal trends. Although inventory levels have decreased due to previous production cuts, weekly production has started to rebound, leading to limited improvement in fundamentals. Manganese ore inventory has significantly increased, and prices are expected to trend downward. Iron production has slightly decreased, while silicon manganese supply has seen a slight uptick. The market's expectations have shifted, and prices remain weak. A short-term strategy of light positions is suggested to observe if any rebound is sustainable [3] - Everbright Futures highlighted that while silicon manganese production is at a relatively low level compared to previous years, it has seen a slight increase over the past three weeks. However, the limited supply reduction offers little support for prices. Weak terminal demand continues to be a major factor affecting silicon manganese prices, with limited purchasing willingness from downstream due to low prices. The cost side remains stable, with a slight increase in South African semi-carbonate prices by 0.2 RMB/ton. Overall, the fundamentals driving silicon manganese are limited, and short-term low-level fluctuations are expected, with attention on mainstream steel procurement progress and market sentiment changes [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Bearish | | US Dollar | Sideways | | US Stocks | Sideways | | Commodities | Sideways | | A-shares | Sideways | | Treasury Bonds | Sideways | [28] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, trade conflict expectations fluctuated, with tariff changes being the main market trading theme. The US May non-farm payroll report exceeded expectations, delaying the market's interest rate cut expectations to September and December. Risk appetite declined at the beginning of the week and rebounded on Friday. Different assets had varying understandings and trades regarding trade conflicts, and price discrepancies need to be resolved. In the short term, trade conflicts are not expected to worsen further, but the future trade situation remains severe [6]. - The global risk appetite continued to recover this week, with most of the equity markets rising. The US dollar weakened, while other currencies generally strengthened. The yields of most major global national treasury bonds rose. The commodity index increased significantly, and the sentiment in the domestic commodity market improved marginally [8][10][15][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - Trade conflict expectations were volatile this week, and tariff changes dominated market trading. The US May non-farm payroll report alleviated concerns about a US economic recession, delaying interest rate cut expectations. Different assets showed different responses to trade conflicts, and price discrepancies need to be addressed. In the short term, trade conflicts are unlikely to worsen further, but the future trade situation remains challenging [6]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Market - Most of the global equity markets rose this week. Among developed markets, the South Korean KOSPI index rose 4.2%, the S&P 500 rose 1.5%, and the German DAX index rose 1.3%, while the Nikkei 225 declined slightly by 0.6%. Among emerging markets, most indices recorded gains, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rising 2.2%, the Saudi All-Share Index rising 1.7%, the Taiwan Weighted Index rising 1.5%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.1%. In the MSCI global index, most national indices rose, with emerging markets > frontier markets > emerging markets > developed markets [8][9]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar weakened this week, while other currencies generally strengthened. The US Dollar Index fell 0.24% and fluctuated around 100. Among emerging markets, the Brazilian real appreciated 2.87%, the Mexican peso appreciated 1.7%, the Thai baht appreciated 0.45%, and the onshore RMB appreciated slightly by 0.15%. Among developed markets, the South Korean won appreciated significantly by 1.65%, the Australian dollar appreciated 0.91%, and the Japanese yen depreciated 0.55% [10]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - The yields of most major global national treasury bonds rose. In developed markets, the US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.51%, the eurozone government bond yield rose slightly to 2.61%, the Japanese government bond yield fell to 1.48%, and the Singapore government bond yield dropped significantly to 2.22%. In emerging markets, the Chinese government bond yield fell slightly to 1.66%, and the Brazilian government bond yield rose significantly to 14.18% [15]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - The commodity index increased significantly this week. WTI crude oil rose 6.55% to $64.8 per barrel, natural gas rose 9.8%, and the metal sector generally closed higher. COMEX gold rose slightly by 0.47% to $3331 per ounce, LME copper rose 1.82%, and COMEX silver soared 9.4%. The sentiment in the domestic commodity market improved marginally, with the black index rising significantly by 3.9%, and the performance ranking as black > agricultural products > precious metals > non-ferrous metals > industrial products > energy and chemicals [21][22]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes 3.3.1 Precious Metals - The change in the US foreign tariff policy remains the short-term core focus of the market. Overall, the room for further deterioration of short-term tariffs is limited, causing the gold price to rise first and then fall, with the high point gradually decreasing. The US economic data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements maintain a hawkish and pause interest rate cut tone, which is bearish for gold from a fundamental perspective. The CFTC gold speculative net long positions stopped falling and rebounded slightly, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased slightly. The London silver price soared last week, and the gold-silver ratio quickly recovered. The silver's catch-up rally may indicate a phased peak for precious metals [31][35][44]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The economic data released this week showed that the economic fundamentals are under increasing downward pressure, while the labor market remains resilient. The US dollar index is in a tug-of-war, and the Fed is expected to maintain a cautious wait-and-see approach in the short term. The market's expectation of a cooling of trade conflicts has increased, but the second round of trade negotiations may be more difficult than the first. In the short term, the US dollar index will maintain a sideways trend [45]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - The market continued to trade around tariff changes this week. The phone call between Chinese and US leaders released a positive signal, boosting market sentiment in the short term. However, as the expiration of the tariff suspension in July approaches, the risk of increased tariff pressure still exists. The US economic data continues to decline, but there are no obvious signs of deterioration, and the non-farm payroll data on Friday maintained resilience, further alleviating market recession concerns. The market's expectation of the economy is relatively optimistic, but if the inflation data rebounds more than expected next week, it will still bring correction risks to US stocks [50]. 3.3.4 Commodities - This week, the top gainers in the domestic market included silver, coking coal, tin, INE crude oil, coke, low-sulfur fuel oil, LPG, methanol, rubber, and CSI 500, while the top losers included ferrosilicon, urea, pulp, rapeseed oil, ethylene glycol, rapeseed meal, live pigs, PTA, styrene, and corn starch. The gainers were concentrated in the industrial products sector, while the losers were concentrated in agricultural products [61]. 3.3.5 A-shares - Recently, with the success of the market's bet on the "taco" trade, the probability of the outperformance of micro-cap growth stocks has increased, leading to a divergence in industry gains. Among the A-share CITIC first-level industries, 23 rose (20 last week) and 7 fell (10 last week). The leading industry was communications (+5.06%), and the industry with the largest decline was home appliances (-1.75%) [68]. 3.3.6 Treasury Bonds - Although the factors driving the bond market's strength are mainly at the expectation level, and the market may experience fluctuations, the long-term upward trend is relatively clear. Currently, the bond bull market is in the accumulation phase, and it is recommended to adopt a bullish approach [28]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High-Frequency Economic Data Tracking - The GDPNow model predicts that the Q2 growth rate will rebound to 3.8%. As the intensity of import rush fades, the drag of import data on GDP data weakens, and retail sales data remains resilient. The rebound in crude oil prices and tariff pressure have made it difficult to eliminate the market's concerns about long-term economic stagflation risks. The number of initial and continued jobless claims has risen to recent highs, and the unemployment rate may continue to rise in the future. The bank reserve amount has rebounded to $3.4 trillion, the TGA account balance has decreased to $376 billion, and the reverse repurchase scale has remained at around $150 billion. The financial market liquidity has turned loose, and corporate spreads have declined. The US economy has not fully weakened, and inflation still has the risk of rebounding. It is expected that the Fed will maintain a cautious wait-and-see approach, and the market has basically priced in the suspension of interest rate cuts in May and June, with only a 51.8% probability of interest rate cuts starting in September [89][98][106]. 3.4.2 Domestic High-Frequency Economic Data Tracking - This week, the sales volume of first-hand housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities declined more than seasonally. The number and price of second-hand housing listings were both weak. Automobile sales declined slightly year-on-year, while international oil prices fluctuated slightly upward to around $68 per barrel. In terms of capital interest rates, as of the close on April 30, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1-week were 1.84%, 1.80%, 1.76%, and 1.76% respectively, with changes of +18.09, +16.28, +19.30, and +12.40 bp compared to the previous weekend's close. In terms of repurchase transactions, the average daily trading volume of interbank pledged repurchase this week was 5.46 trillion yuan, 196.1 billion yuan less than last week (5.66 trillion yuan), and the overnight proportion was 78.44%, lower than the previous week's level (77.10%). In April, the economic data weakened. The growth rate of social retail sales decreased from the previous value of 5.9% to 5.1%, and the cumulative investment growth rate of the manufacturing industry from January to April decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous value. The cumulative infrastructure growth rate also decreased slightly to 10.9%. In April, the new RMB credit weakened. The new medium and long-term loans of the household sector turned negative again, and the phenomenon of household deleveraging still exists. The medium and long-term loans of the enterprise sector decreased significantly year-on-year, and the corporate bonds increased slightly year-on-year in a low-interest rate environment. The new government bonds increased significantly year-on-year in April, indicating that fiscal policy is front-loaded this year. The M2 growth rate rebounded significantly, while the M1 growth rate fluctuated at a low level, and the level of currency activation remained low. In April, China's CPI同比 decreased by 0.1%, and the core CPI同比 increased by 0.5%. The PPI同比 decreased by 2.7%. China's exports in April (in US dollars) increased by 8.1% year-on-year, and the import growth rate was -0.2% [113][126][137][144][151].

分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 稀土战略价值凸显，关注白银股补涨机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 衰退叙事阶段性受阻，强就业数据削弱降息预期压制金价。商品端，短期将继续步入宽幅震荡 格局；权益侧，整体低估背景下依旧保持乐观。值得重视的是，白银补涨趋势较强，银金比弱 势格局下，其补涨弹性可期。美国补库及美元走弱，工业金属企稳。在美国补库及美元走弱的 双重带动下，本周工业金属商品价格企稳：1）受美国再次提高钢铝关税影响，美国补库预期导 致美铜强势上涨，进而带动全球铜价反弹；2）美国 PMI 等经济数据走弱，压制美元表现，进 而也有助大宗走强。贸易关税反复，国际局势动荡，稀土战略配置价值再起。 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 1 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% % ...

港股金属与采矿板块午后持续走高，中国白银集团涨超25%，南方锰业涨超20%，万国黄金集团涨超 8%，五矿资源、中国黄金（600916）国际、洛阳钼业（603993）涨超4%。 ...

据了解，为反映沪深300指数样本中不同细分行业公司证券的整体表现，为投资者提供分析工具，将沪 深300指数300只样本按行业分类标准分为10个一级行业、26个二级行业、70余个三级行业及100多个四 级行业。沪深300细分行业指数系列分别以进入各二级、三级行业的全部证券作为样本编制指数，形成 沪深300细分行业指数。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 从指数持仓来看，沪深300金属与采矿指数十大权重分别为：紫金矿业（31.27%）、北方稀土 （6.45%）、宝钢股份（6.2%）、山东黄金（5.8%）、中国铝业（5.62%）、洛阳钼业（5.48%）、华友 钴业（4.91%）、中金黄金（4.35%）、包钢股份（4.22%）、赣锋锂业（3.75%）。 金融界6月5日消息，上证指数高开震荡，沪深300金属与采矿指数 (300金属与采矿，L11606)报2405.31 点。 数据统计显示，沪深300金属与采矿指数近一个月上涨2.29%，近三个月上涨3.98%，年至今上涨 9.43%。 从沪深300金属与采矿指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比82.35%、深圳证券交易所占比 17.65 ...

Market Overview - The three major stock indices collectively rose today, with nearly 4,000 stocks increasing in value. Key sectors showing strong performance include brokerage firms and diversified financials, as well as consumer goods and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.15 trillion, indicating no significant increase in trading activity [1] Sector Performance - The beer and soft drink sectors performed well, driven by seasonal demand due to high summer temperatures. Stocks such as 嘉美包装 (Jia Mei Packaging), 乐惠国际 (Le Hui International), and 永顺泰 (Yong Shun Tai) hit their daily limit [1] - Recent trends show a concentration of capital in specific sectors, with significant interest in metals, non-metals, and mining due to rising global risk aversion and domestic resource policies. Key stocks include 紫金矿业 (Zijin Mining) and 赤峰黄金 (Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining) [5] - The electric equipment sector, particularly in renewable energy and nuclear power, is benefiting from technological breakthroughs and policy support. Notable stocks include 宁德时代 (CATL) and 中超控股 (Zhongchao Holdings) [5] Investment Trends - There is a noticeable trend of large funds "hugging" certain stocks, leading to repeated speculation on a few hot topics. This has resulted in significant short-term profit opportunities, although the sustainability of this trend is questionable [6] - High-profile stocks have seen substantial price increases without strong fundamental support, indicating that the market is driven by speculative trading rather than underlying business improvements [5][6] - Recent data shows that some high-performing stocks have experienced insider selling, with executives from 凯因科技 (Kain Technology) and 均瑶健康 (Jun Yao Health) reducing their holdings significantly [7][8]

A股重要指数迎来样本股调整。 据深交所6月3日发布的公告，深交所和深圳证券信息有限公司决定于6月16日对深证成指、创业板指、深证100等指数实施样本股定期调整。其中，深证成 指、创业板指、深证100指数、创业板50指数等核心指数样本股调整的数量分别为20只、8只、3只、5只。 与此同时，中国创盈市场服务有限公司同日宣布了关于深港通下的港股通标的证券名单调整的公告。港股通标的证券调入富智康集团和钧达股份，此次调 整将自今日起生效。 【导读】深交所调整深证成指、创业板指、深证100等指数样本股 中国基金报记者张舟 | | 调入名单 | | 调出名单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券间称 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | | 000657 | 中钨高新 | 000012 | 南 玻A | | 000791 | 甘肃能源 | 000627 | 天茂集团 | | 000801 | 四川九洲 | 000690 | 宝新能源 | | 002139 | 拓邦股份 | 000869 | 张 裕A | | 002222 | 福晶科技 | 000930 | 中粮科技 | | 002265 ...

完善产业生态布局 中国证券报记者5月29日从深交所获悉，深交所日前组织召开并购重组主题上市公司集体业绩说明会， 邀请中钨高新、通润装备、长川科技、雅创电子等公司参加。各家公司董事长、总经理、财务负责人等 核心成员与投资者展开面对面沟通交流。 参会企业通过活用并购重组工具，或做大做强主业，或拓宽业务"版图"，或开拓海外业务，持续加快发 展新质生产力。整体来看，"并购六条"发布后，深市并购重组市场规模和活跃度有所提升，累计披露重 组项目接近800单。同时，并购重组实施效果良好。数据显示，2022年至2024年完成重组的深市公司， 重组完成当年总体收入、利润均大幅增长，收入增速超过50%的占比4成、利润增速超过50%的占比3 成。 激活业务增长"引擎" 资本市场是资源配置的重要平台，可以汇集各类要素资源，助力企业科研攻关、转型升级。并购重组作 为资本市场核心工具，在培育新质生产力发展、提升上市公司竞争力和投资价值、助力企业全球化布局 等方面发挥着重要作用。 在政策支持下，深市公司积极运用并购重组工具做大做强主业。2024年12月，中钨高新重组项目顺利过 会。中钨高新是中国五矿钨产业的运营管理平台，标的柿竹园公司年产 ...

Group 1 - The core event was the "Ningxia Listed Companies Investor Collective Reception Day and 2024 Annual Performance Briefing," marking the 18th year of this initiative, with participation from over a hundred executives from listed companies [1] - In 2024, 16 listed companies in Ningxia achieved a total operating revenue of 62.338 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.40%, and a net profit of 6.477 billion yuan, up 5.43% year-on-year [1] - Nine companies announced cash dividends totaling 3.689 billion yuan, a significant increase of 41.85% compared to the previous year, with both the number and amount reaching historical highs [1] Group 2 - The Ningxia Securities Regulatory Bureau emphasized the importance of protecting investors' rights and enhancing the management of listed companies, focusing on financial integrity and social responsibility [2] - The region is advancing its "six new, six special, six superior + N" industrial strategy, which aims to enhance the core competitiveness of the capital market [2] - The event featured real-time online interactions between executives from 16 listed companies and investors, with nearly 200,000 viewers and a high response rate of 94.85% to investor inquiries [3]