党的二十届四中全会对"十五五"时期加快建设金融强国提出明确要求，其中提到"全面加强金融监 管，强化央地监管协同，丰富风险处置资源和手段，构建风险防范化解体系，保障金融稳健运行"。 "十五五"时期，我国金融领域面临的风险挑战仍然复杂严峻，全面加强金融监管有助于确保金融体 系对各种风险冲击保持足够韧性。国家金融监督管理总局披露的最新数据显示，2025年三季度末，我国 银行业金融机构本外币资产总额已达474.3万亿元。要加快建设金融强国，切实增强金融整体实力、国 际竞争力和抗风险能力，必须全面提高金融监管能力，牢牢守住不发生系统性风险的底线。 加快补齐制度短板 2023年底召开的中央金融工作会议首次明确提出"全面加强金融监管"，要求切实提高金融监管有效 性，依法将所有金融活动全部纳入监管，全面强化机构监管、行为监管、功能监管、穿透式监管、持续 监管，消除监管空白和盲区，严格执法、敢于亮剑，严厉打击非法金融活动。 全面加强金融监管，必须有制度作为保障。11月28日，中国人民银行、金融监管总局、中国证监会 联合发布《金融机构客户尽职调查和客户身份资料及交易记录保存管理办法》（以下简称《管理办 法》），自2026年1月1 ...

（1）中国人民银行行长潘功胜在人民日报发表署名文章，文中提到，中央银行以维护币值稳定和金融稳定为双目标，货币政策 体系和宏观审慎管理体系是中央银行实施宏观管理的两项基础性工具，是实现双目标的双支柱。构建科学稳健的货币政策体系 和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系，有利于把维护币值稳定和金融稳定更好结合起来，对于支撑金融强国建设具有重要的意义。 （2）国家金融监督管理总局发布关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知。其中提出：保险公司持仓时间超过三年的沪深 300指数成分股、中证红利低波动100指数成分股的风险因子从0.3下调至0.27。该持仓时间根据过去六年加权平均持仓时间确 定。 三、债市展望 债市的快速调整彰显出，配置型机构目前参与市场的力度较弱，超长债供需关系阶段性的失衡。同时万科事件、公募赎回新 规、临近年末等因素加大了交易性资金的波动，债市正处于易上难下的阶段，债市企稳仍需观察。虽然目前点位从利差角度 看，超长债有一定的博弈价值，但建议还是以快进快出为主，相比较下10年期以内参与交易的安全边际较高。未来可等待货币 宽松预期逐步升温，配置资金开始加大配置力度，再择机参与超长债期限的交易配置。 来源：市场投研资讯 ...

Stock Market - The A-share market indices rose during the week from December 1 to December 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.26%, the ChiNext Index by 1.86%, and the Xinhua 500 Index by 1.25% [1] - The Xinhua 500 Index opened at 5001.85 points and closed at 5050.16 points, with a weekly fluctuation of 1.82% and a total trading volume of 2.62 trillion yuan [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industry indices, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, defense and military industry, machinery equipment, and non-bank financials saw significant gains, while media, real estate, beauty care, food and beverage, and computer sectors experienced declines [3] Commodity Market - Precious metals maintained high volatility, with spot gold nearing $4260 per ounce before declining, resulting in a weekly drop of 0.5%. COMEX gold futures closed at $4227.7 per ounce, down 0.64% for the week [6] - Spot silver reached a record high of $59.3 per ounce due to supply shortages and soaring industrial demand, with COMEX silver futures rising by 2.86% to $58.8 per ounce [6] Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell by 0.46% to 98.98, while the euro, pound, and Australian dollar appreciated against the dollar. The euro rose by 0.37%, the pound by 0.77%, and the Japanese yen increased by 0.53% due to heightened expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan [8] Market News - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on December 5 to maintain liquidity in the banking system [9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced plans to strengthen differentiated regulation for quality institutions while tightening oversight on problematic brokers [9] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration lowered risk factors for several insurance company business lines, including those related to the CSI 300 Index and the STAR Market [9] Upcoming Events - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be a key focus next week, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut following recent weak employment data [13]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The duration of secondary capital bonds has been continuously rising, while the durations of other credit bonds have generally shortened. As of December 5, the weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.90 years and 2.27 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.31 years, 3.78 years, and 1.94 years respectively. General commercial financial bonds were at a relatively low historical level, and secondary capital bonds were at a relatively high historical level. For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.53 years, 1.83 years, 3.33 years, and 1.19 years respectively. The duration of securities subordinated bonds has significantly shortened compared to last week, and the durations of securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds were at relatively low historical levels [2][9]. - The coupon duration crowding index has slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, the coupon duration crowding index declined. This week, it increased compared to last week and is currently at the 20.8% level since March 2021 [11]. Summary by Directory 1. All - Variety Duration Overview - Urban investment bonds: The weighted average trading duration hovered around 1.90 years. The duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds lengthened to 5.50 years, and the trading duration of Guangxi provincial urban investment bonds shortened to around 1.22 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Zhejiang prefecture - level cities, Henan prefecture - level cities, and Hunan province have exceeded 90%, and the duration of Hunan provincial urban investment bonds is approaching the highest level since 2021 [3][15]. - Industrial bonds: The weighted average trading duration of industrial bonds shortened compared to last week and was generally around 2.27 years. The trading duration of the transportation industry lengthened to 2.02 years, and the trading duration of the food and beverage industry shortened to 0.55 years. The trading duration of the real estate industry was at a relatively low historical level, while those of the non - ferrous metals and pharmaceutical and biological industries were at relatively high historical levels [3][21]. - Commercial bank bonds: The duration of general commercial financial bonds shortened to 1.94 years, at the 35.9% historical quantile, lower than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds lengthened to 4.31 years, at the 95.1% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds shortened to 3.78 years, at the 67.7% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. - Other financial bonds: In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at historical quantiles of 71.4%, 22%, 31.8%, and 61.2% respectively. The overall duration of other financial bonds has shortened compared to last week [3][26]. 2. Variety Microscope - Coupon duration crowding index: After reaching its peak in March 2024, the coupon duration crowding index decreased and then increased slightly this week. It is currently at the 20.8% level since March 2021 [11]. - Regional analysis of urban investment bonds: The report provides the durations and historical quantiles of urban investment bonds in different provinces and administrative levels, such as the duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds lengthening to 5.50 years and Guangxi provincial urban investment bonds shortening to 1.22 years [15][20]. - Industry analysis of industrial bonds: Different industries within industrial bonds showed different duration changes. For example, the transportation industry's duration lengthened, and the food and beverage industry's duration shortened [21].

Financial Market - The impact of Japan's interest rate hike on China's financial market is characterized by "short-term volatility and medium to long-term structural differentiation" through three main channels: capital flow, exchange rate transmission, and sentiment diffusion [3] - Following the interest rate increase, there may be a withdrawal of some northbound capital from A-shares, with a notable instance in April 2025 where northbound capital saw a single-week outflow of 18 billion [3] - The yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds surpassed that of China's for the first time, potentially exerting short-term depreciation pressure on the RMB, although Chinese government bonds remain attractive to foreign investors due to their higher combined yield [3] - High-dividend blue-chip stocks and gold/precious metals are favored due to their safe-haven attributes, while high-valuation growth stocks and foreign-invested consumer stocks face short-term pressure [3] Livestock Industry - The direct impact of Japan's interest rate hike on China's livestock industry is limited, as the domestic market is primarily self-sufficient and has low dependence on Japanese imports [4] - However, global commodity and shipping market fluctuations triggered by the rate hike may indirectly increase transportation costs for feed ingredients, although the effect is expected to be weak [4] - Japan's domestic livestock sector is more significantly affected, with 90% of its feed being imported, leading to rising international grain prices and increased wholesale prices for eggs [5] - The Chinese livestock industry is insulated from supply chain disruptions due to a lack of large-scale exports to Japan and no core technology dependencies [5] - If global risk aversion spreads, the agricultural sector may experience short-term fluctuations, but potential adjustments in trade policies could boost domestic demand for Chinese livestock products [5] Response Strategies - Financial market participants are advised to avoid high-valuation stocks lacking fundamental support and focus on low-valuation high-dividend blue-chip stocks, as well as sectors like new energy vehicles and consumer electronics that may benefit from Japan's reduced manufacturing competitiveness [6] - Livestock enterprises should optimize feed procurement strategies and focus on domestic market demand to enhance product quality and supply chain stability, leveraging their self-sufficient industry chain to mitigate external disturbances [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Year - end allocation of ultra - long bonds is weak. The problem of insufficient ultra - long bond underwriting has intensified this week, driving up the 30Y Treasury bond rate. Although some institutions have increased their allocation, funds still have weak buying power due to redemption pressure [1][10]. - Banks' willingness to allocate ultra - long bonds in the secondary market has decreased due to primary underwriting and IRRBB assessment pressure. Insurance funds continue the trend of stock - bond rebalancing and focus on local bonds and long - term credit bonds [1]. - There are feasible paths to solve the ultra - long bond underwriting problem, such as controlling the duration of new government bonds, central bank's purchase of ultra - long Treasury bonds, guiding non - bank funds to participate in subscriptions, and reducing the pressure on banks' book interest rate risk indicators [2]. - The central bank maintains a supportive attitude. The carry trade strategy is dominant, and investors can moderately participate in band trading after adjustments [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, the bond market sentiment was weak, with the 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond rates rising by 1bp and 7bp respectively. The market showed different trends on different days due to factors such as PMI data, stock market performance, and policy expectations [9]. - The allocation of ultra - long bonds at the year - end is weak. Banks' willingness to allocate ultra - long bonds in the secondary market has decreased, and insurance funds focus on local bonds and long - term credit bonds [1][10]. - There are feasible paths to solve the ultra - long bond underwriting problem, and the central bank's supportive attitude remains unchanged. The carry trade strategy is dominant, and investors can moderately participate in band trading [2][24]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal, and funding rates declined. From December 1st to 5th, the central bank's net withdrawal was 8480 billion yuan. R007 and DR007 decreased by 3bp compared to November 28th [28][29]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields first rose and then fell this week. Except for the 1Y and 3Y Treasury bonds, the rates of other key - term Treasury bonds increased. The 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond yields rose by 1bp and 7bp respectively compared to November 28th [37]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - The 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond term spread widened significantly, and the duration of bond funds decreased. The 30Y Treasury bond weekly turnover rate continued to rise to 35%, and the inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 107.3% [43]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased compared to last week. The net financing of Treasury bonds increased, while that of local government bonds and policy - bank bonds decreased. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit turned positive, and the average issuance rate increased [57][63]. 3.3 Economic Data - Since December, movie consumption has been significantly stronger than seasonal trends, and the freight rate index has weakened. Real estate, consumption, export, and industrial production show different trends [69]. - Infrastructure and price high - frequency data show that the mill operation rate has rebounded, inventory indicators have continued to decline marginally, and most price indicators have increased [72]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - US consumer confidence slightly increased in December, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has risen. US bonds, Japanese and Korean bond markets declined. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury bond spread widened, and the Sino - US 10Y Treasury bond spread widened [77][78][81]. 3.5 Major Asset Classes - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index rebounded this week. Shanghai copper rose significantly, and the Nanhua live - hog index weakened. The performance of major asset classes is: Shanghai copper > rebar > Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 > Shanghai gold > CSI 1000 > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > crude oil > Chinese bonds > convertible bonds > US dollar > live hogs [82]. 3.6 Policy Review - On December 5th, relevant policies such as the adjustment of insurance company risk factors, the management method of financial leasing company business, and articles on capital market development were released. On December 4th, an article on the construction of the monetary policy system was published. On December 1st, the list of infrastructure REITs project industries was released [86][90][91].

近年来，我国围绕标准体系、激励约束、风险防控等出台多项政策措施，有力引领并推动绿色金融高质 量发展。绿色金融标准体系不断完善，为金融机构创新产品与服务指明方向。结构性支持工具不断优 化，显著提升了金融机构发展绿色金融的积极性，如中国人民银行创设的碳减排支持工具，支持范围从 初期的21家全国性银行扩展至多家外资银行及数十家地方性银行。监管引导不断加强，大大增强了金融 机构的风险管理意识和能力。截至今年上半年，我国绿色贷款余额约42.4万亿元，绿色债券余额超2.2万 亿元，两者规模稳居全球前列，金融对基础设施绿色升级、能源绿色低碳转型、生态保护修复和利用等 领域的支持力度持续加大。 同时也要看到，对标全面绿色转型和碳达峰碳中和等要求，我国绿色金融服务质效有待提升，实践中还 面临一些不足，存在绿色信息披露机制不健全、绿色资产定价体系不完善、绿色金融产品不丰富等问 题。当前和未来一个时期，可从顶层设计与落地实施上共同发力，进一步激发绿色金融发展潜力。 一方面，注重构建多层次、全覆盖的支持体系。加强绿色金融政策与财政政策、产业政策协同，完善转 型金融标准，支持符合国家产业政策导向的企业通过采用先进技术和设备更新实现降碳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the acceleration of building a financial powerhouse, focusing on the development of green finance, technology finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, with a strong push for green low-carbon development [1]. Group 1: Definition and Importance of Green Finance - Green finance refers to financial services that support environmental improvement, climate change response, and efficient resource utilization, particularly in areas like clean energy and green transportation [2]. - The development of green finance is crucial for the systemic transformation of the financial system to support comprehensive green transitions in the economy and society [3]. Group 2: Achievements in Green Finance Standards - Significant progress has been made in establishing a green finance standard system during the 14th Five-Year Plan, including the release of the national standard "Green Finance Terminology" and the "Green Finance Support Project Directory (2025 Edition)" [5]. - Transition finance standards have been developed for industries such as steel and agriculture, with pilot implementations in over 20 provinces [5]. Group 3: Mechanisms and Tools for Green Finance - Green finance integrates ecological factors into resource allocation, utilizing tools like green credit, green bonds, and carbon finance to support green projects [3][4]. - The establishment of a green finance standard system and mandatory environmental information disclosure are key mechanisms for quantifying and pricing environmental externalities [3]. Group 4: Regional Innovations and Practices - The establishment of green finance reform and innovation pilot zones has led to successful local practices, including the development of green finance standards and enhanced policy incentives [7][8]. - Various regions have introduced innovative green financial products, such as "marine climate loans" and "carbon reduction loans," to support traditional industries in their green transitions [9]. Group 5: International Cooperation and Standards - China actively participates in global green finance governance, establishing multilateral cooperation mechanisms and contributing to the development of international sustainable finance standards [14][15]. - The "Belt and Road" initiative incorporates green finance principles to promote sustainable development in partner countries, with significant financial support directed towards clean energy projects [15]. Group 6: Future Directions and Challenges - The future of green finance will focus on deep integration and practical implementation, with an emphasis on expanding the application of existing standards and developing innovative financial products [18]. - There is a need to enhance the transparency of environmental information and establish robust risk management frameworks to support the green transition [10][11].

Core Idea - Current market conditions suggest not to aggressively bottom-fish but to consider small positions for short-term gains, with a focus on 1-2 basis point fluctuations before retreating [3][32] - There is a probability of unexpected monetary easing in Q1 next year, and if there is large-scale central bank net buying of government bonds, significant trading opportunities may arise [3][32] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The bond market currently lacks major institutional buyers, with funds showing diminished profit effects and banks potentially selling old bonds due to year-end pressures [4][7][9] - Fund products are under pressure, with a notable decline in the scale of long-term bond ETFs from approximately 55 billion to 48 billion since November [7][41] - Insurance companies are focusing on high-dividend stocks as substitutes for long-term bonds, with the dividend yield of the A-share dividend index at approximately 4.3%-4.4%, significantly higher than the 30-year government bond yield of 2.25% [16][48] Group 2: Future Opportunities - Patience is advised for positioning after the year-end, as new rounds of easing may emerge post-New Year, with expectations of increased central bank bond purchases [4][50] - The market anticipates a rebound in the bond market after year-end adjustments, with potential significant trading opportunities when the main contract price approaches 109 yuan [4][50][53] - The current lack of trend-following buying interest from major institutional investors suggests that the bond market's negative sentiment may not have fully dissipated [4][34] Group 3: Short-term and Mid-term Strategies - Short-term strategies should focus on risk control, while mid-term outlooks remain optimistic, anticipating a shift in investment strategies from capital gains to carry strategies [4][34] - The bond market is expected to experience a rebound as year-end adjustments conclude, with institutions likely to increase their allocations [4][53] - The central bank's bond buying signals are currently more significant than their actual impact, with expectations of increased buying in the near future [4][50]

Core Viewpoint - The development of annuity insurance is crucial for the insurance industry to maintain its competitive advantage in the pension system, while asset management serves as a latecomer advantage that leverages traditional insurance's large asset base [1][3]. Group 1: Annuity Insurance - Annuity insurance is considered the foundation of the insurance industry and essential for the sustainable development of retirement communities [1][3]. - Research indicates that retirement communities need to achieve a high occupancy rate to avoid losses, and annuity insurance can effectively match the payment needs of these communities [1][3]. - The development of annuity insurance is seen as a way to strengthen the competitive advantage of the insurance industry and alleviate the operational pressures faced by retirement communities [1][3]. Group 2: Asset Management - Asset management is viewed as a latecomer advantage, utilizing the long-term asset management experience built on a substantial asset base from traditional insurance [1][3]. - The insurance industry is increasingly excelling in the integration of asset management into the pension sector [1][3]. Group 3: Professional Workforce - The insurance industry possesses the largest and most professional construction workforce, which is a competitive edge in developing annuity insurance [1][3]. - There is a call to utilize the specialized talent within the industry to enhance the development of annuity insurance [1][3].