Group 1: Eurozone Focus - The European Central Bank (ECB) appears satisfied with the current inflation situation, indicating no necessity for further rate cuts in the second half of the year [9][11][14] - The "Rearmament of Europe" initiative is expected to benefit industries such as traditional military manufacturing, dual-use high technology, strategic resources, and energy security, with a focus on the aerospace and defense sectors [20][22] - Rheinmetall and Airbus are identified as key beneficiaries of the "Rearmament of Europe" plan, with Rheinmetall projected to see a 20% revenue growth due to increased defense spending [22][21] Group 2: Indian Market Focus - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the key repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%, exceeding market expectations, while maintaining a neutral stance due to limited growth support [31][29] - There is an anticipated further rate cut of 25-50 basis points in the current fiscal year, driven by moderate growth prospects and weak private consumption [34][32] - The Indian stock market is currently overvalued, with the Nifty index's earnings per share forecast being significantly downgraded, leading to cautious short-term return expectations [37][35] Group 3: Thai Market Focus - Political instability in Thailand is hindering economic recovery, with significant pressure on the stock market and a cautious outlook on corporate earnings [41][51] - The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has maintained the policy rate at 1.75% but is expected to lower it to 1.25% later this year to support the economy [47][46] - CP All and Minor International are highlighted as resilient players in the Thai market, with CP All benefiting from 7-Eleven's growth and Minor International having long-term rebound potential despite short-term pressures [52][51]

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace and defense sectors are entering a golden development period in 2025, with strong performance in related thematic indices and ETFs, particularly the high-end equipment ETF (159638) which has shown significant gains recently [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The high-end equipment ETF (159638) achieved a five-day consecutive increase with a weekly growth rate of 6.19%, and a further rise of 4.13% on June 30, totaling a six-day increase of 10.58% [1]. - On June 30, the trading volume for the high-end equipment ETF reached 90.88 million yuan, significantly higher than the average daily trading volume of 50.93 million yuan over the past year [1]. - The ETF tracks the CSI High-end Equipment Sub-index 50, which includes leading stocks in various sub-sectors such as aerospace equipment manufacturing and radar systems, with a high concentration in the aerospace sector [1]. Group 2: Profit Expectations - The continuous rise of the high-end equipment ETF is supported by strong profit expectations, with projected year-on-year net profit growth of 85.81% and 36.49% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2]. - The dividend payout ratios for the CSI High-end Equipment Sub-index 50 are expected to increase from 29.25% in 2022 to 54.49% in 2024, indicating a positive trend [2]. Group 3: Company Initiatives - As one of the earliest fund companies to engage in passive investment, the company has been a leader in broad-based and thematic ETFs, launching the first domestic CSI 300 index fund in August 2005 [3]. - The company has continuously innovated in the thematic ETF space, introducing several first-of-their-kind products, including the aerospace high-end equipment ETF (159638) and others focused on green energy and technology sectors [3].

Market Events - The People's Bank of China will have a total of 20,275 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing next week, with specific maturities of 2,205 billion, 4,065 billion, 3,653 billion, 5,093 billion, and 5,259 billion yuan from Monday to Friday [1] - A total of 68 companies in the A-share market will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, amounting to 3.165 billion shares with a total market value of 81.671 billion yuan based on the closing price on June 27 [1] - The top three companies by market value of unlocked shares are: Zhong无人机 (20.02 billion yuan), Dize Pharmaceutical-U (13.272 billion yuan), and Gai Lun Electronics (6.942 billion yuan) [1] Economic Indicators - The China National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report on June 30, with the previous month's manufacturing PMI at 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The U.S. will release the unemployment rate and non-farm payroll changes for June on July 3 [2] Regulatory Changes - The revised Information Disclosure Management Measures by the China Securities Regulatory Commission will take effect on July 1, emphasizing the need for companies to disclose risks that could significantly impact their core competitiveness and future development [3] - The new Mineral Resources Law will also take effect on July 1, introducing innovative regulations regarding resource security and mining rights [3] Industry Developments - Starting July 1, China will implement a new policy for medical insurance sales, requiring QR code scanning to prevent the sale of "returned drugs" [2] - The new train operation schedule will be implemented nationwide from July 1, increasing the number of scheduled passenger trains to 13,302, an increase of 236 trains [4] Corporate Actions - Microsoft is expected to conduct another round of significant layoffs in its Xbox division as part of a broader company restructuring, marking the fourth major layoff in the past 18 months [6]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings anticipates a slowdown in global air travel demand but does not expect significant order delays or cancellations for Boeing (BA.N) [1] Group 1 - Fitch Ratings projects a deceleration in the growth of global air travel demand [1] - The outlook for Boeing remains stable despite the anticipated slowdown in demand [1]

Group 1: Core Views - The article discusses the significant growth of credit bond ETFs, with a total scale of 106.6 billion yuan as of June 20, 2025, an increase of 77.7 billion yuan since the end of March, and 41.7 billion yuan since June [1] - The expansion of index constituent bonds is notably slower than the growth of credit bond ETF scales, indicating a potential undervaluation in constituent bonds [1][2] - The article highlights the impact of low valuation transactions on bond valuations, particularly the widening valuation gap between exchange-traded corporate bonds and comparable bank bonds [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article notes that the issuance of new science and technology bonds is primarily at low valuations, with an average coupon rate lower than the estimated average by 6 basis points [3] - It emphasizes that the secondary market's low valuation trend may extend to the primary market, suggesting potential opportunities in newly issued low-valuation science and technology bonds [3] - The article identifies two main lines for constituent bond exploration: bonds with a remaining term of over 5 years and those included in both the science and technology bond index and credit bond benchmark market [4] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that the demand for 3-5 year credit bonds is increasing due to the volume of credit bond ETFs, which may lead to a flattening of the yield curve and a narrowing of credit spreads for higher-rated bonds [2] - It recommends focusing on newly issued science and technology bonds with a low valuation of within -5 basis points, indicating potential for price appreciation [3] - The article indicates that the market for long-term science and technology bonds (over 5 years) is particularly attractive due to their larger scale and stable valuations [4]

Core Points - The Indian Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) has initiated the data extraction process for the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) and flight data recorder (FDR) of the crashed Boeing 787 aircraft [1] - The incident involved Air India flight AI171, which crashed shortly after takeoff on June 12, with a total of 242 people on board [1]

Group 1: Trump's Statements on Netanyahu and Iran - Trump called for the immediate dismissal of the trial against Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, expressing shock at what he termed "absurd political persecution" [2] - Trump stated that the U.S. saved Israel in the past and will now save Netanyahu, emphasizing the need for the trial to be revoked or for Netanyahu to be pardoned [2] - Trump announced that the U.S. will hold talks with Iran next week, potentially leading to an agreement, while maintaining that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons remains a core demand [4][3] Group 2: Military and Defense Budget Changes - Trump plans to reduce the number of F-35 fighter jets in the next fiscal year, opting to increase investments in high-tech missiles and drones instead [9] - The proposed defense budget for the upcoming fiscal year is $892.6 billion, remaining consistent with the current fiscal year [9] - The budget includes a 3.8% pay raise for military personnel while also cutting costs by retiring older, more expensive ships and aircraft [10]

盘前市场动向 美股面临"高估值风险"，需要降息或亮眼财报"救场"。美国股市近期在多重压力下仍屡创新高，但估值过高引发担忧。标普500 市盈率达22倍，远超长期均值35%，多项指标显示其处于历史高位。市场能否持续上涨取决于企业盈利能否超预期或美联储降 息。但鉴于估值水平高企，美股盈利超预期门槛很高;与此同时，美联储也表示不急于调整政策。彭博一项模型考虑了诸如美国 国债收益率、每股收益以及股票风险溢价等要素，该模型显示，以历史数据计算，标普500指数的合理市盈率应维持在约17.7倍 的水平，而目前的市盈率为 23.7倍。要使市盈率回归到合理价值水平，该指标的盈利水平需在未来一年内增长 30%(假设股价保 持不变)。据彭博策略师Gina Martin Adams和Michael Casper称，除了盈利增长之外，美联储大幅降息也将是使标普500指数中的 基本面与市场价格之间的差距缩小的另一种方式。 鲍威尔将再闯国会山，今晚继续"打太极"?周三，鲍威尔将继续在参议院银行委员会作证。鲍威尔昨日对尽快降息三缄其口，只 是不排除任何可能。鲍威尔重申了他的观点，即决策者无需仓促调整政策，这与美国总统特朗普的要求以及美联储理事 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK government has announced the procurement of at least 12 F-35A stealth fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear warheads, enhancing its strategic nuclear capabilities and joining NATO's nuclear mission [1] Group 1: Military Procurement - The UK will acquire a minimum of 12 F-35A stealth fighter jets [1] - These jets will be stationed at the RAF Marham base [1] - The procurement aims to strengthen the UK's strategic nuclear capabilities [1] Group 2: NATO Involvement - The new squadron of fighter jets will participate in NATO's alliance mission involving US nuclear weapons [1] - This move signifies the UK's commitment to NATO's nuclear strategy [1] Group 3: Aircraft Specifications - The F-35 fighter jets are developed by Lockheed Martin [1] - They possess stealth and supersonic cruising capabilities [1]

Core Points - The UK government announced the purchase of 12 F-35A fighter jets capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons, marking the largest scale initiative to enhance nuclear deterrence in decades [1] - Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to officially announce this decision at the NATO summit in The Hague on the 25th [1] - Starmer stated that the increase in defense spending is a response to a time of extreme uncertainty, where peace is no longer taken for granted [1]