Report Information - Report Title: [White Sugar Weekly Report 20250808] Processed Sugar Captures Market, Spot Quotes Decline Steadily [1][2][10][26][39][62][79][89][105][116][128][141][148] - Date: 2025 - 08 - 08 [1][9] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The SR509 contract of white sugar is likely to decline in the short term but has limited downside space, with support at the 5600 price level [3]. - Globally, the 2025/26 sugar season is expected to have a loose supply - demand pattern, with the SR2509 contract expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices within the range [3]. - Key factors to monitor include Brazil's production, India's production, EU policies, and domestic sugar production, sales, and inventory [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. White Sugar Weekly Data Summary - **Futures Prices**: This week, the 1 - month closing price was 5573 yuan/ton, the 5 - month closing price was 5530 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month closing price was 5680 yuan/ton. Compared with intraday prices, the 1 - month price decreased by 47 yuan/ton, the 5 - month price decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month price decreased by 53 yuan/ton [7]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the spot prices of white sugar in Nanning, Liuzhou, and Kunming decreased by 70 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 70 yuan/ton respectively compared with last week [7]. - **Basis**: As of August 8, the basis of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 was 280 yuan/ton, showing a slight decline [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of white sugar warehouse receipts was 18,615, a decrease of 858 compared with last week [7]. 2. International Supply Brazil - **Production in the 2024/25 Season**: The output was set at 40.17 million tons, a decrease of 2.25 million tons compared with the previous season, but still within a historically high - output range [32]. - **Production in the 2025/26 Season**: As of the first half of July, the cumulative sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22%. The production in the first half of July was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07%. The 2025/26 season is expected to see an increase in production, with an estimated output of about 42 million tons, which will put pressure on raw sugar prices [33]. - **UNICA Bi - weekly Data**: In the first half of July, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07%. The cumulative sugar production from the beginning of the 2025/26 season to the first half of July was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22% [42][43]. - **Alcohol - to - Oil Ratio and Ethanol - to - Sugar Price**: As of August 1, the alcohol - to - oil ratio in São Paulo, Brazil was 65.57%, and the ethanol - to - sugar price was about 14.10 cents/pound, with the raw sugar having an advantage of about 2.04 cents/pound over the ethanol - to - sugar price [58]. - **Export and Inventory**: In July, Brazil exported 3.5937 million tons of sugar and molasses, a decrease of 4.98% compared with the same period last year. As of August 6, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 5.5777 million tons [77]. As of July 15, the sugar inventory in Brazil was 339,000 tons, at a relatively low level in the past five years [73]. India and Thailand - **India**: In the 2024/25 season, the estimated net sugar production was about 26.1 - 26.2 million tons. In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to reach about 34.9 million tons, an 18% increase [76]. - **Thailand**: In the 2024/25 season, the sugar production was 10.0418 million tons, a significant increase compared with last year. In the 2025/26 season, the production is expected to continue to increase slightly [83]. Global Production - **2024/25 Season**: The global sugar supply was still in a loose pattern, but the tightness was marginally reduced from the previous period [87]. - **2025/26 Season**: The global sugar supply is expected to turn loose, with different institutions predicting supply surpluses ranging from 115,000 to 7.5 million tons [87]. 3. Domestic Supply - **Production in the 2024/25 Season**: The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.56%, and the cumulative sales rate was 79.73%, 5.42 percentage points faster than the same period last year [103]. - **Import**: The quota - free import profit window opened earlier, and it is expected that the import volume will continue to increase significantly in the third quarter. In June, the domestic sugar import was 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons [119]. - **Syrup and Premixed Powder Import**: In June, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. The import of three types of goods under the 170290 tariff item remained at a low level, while the import of two types of goods under the 2106906 tariff item increased significantly [134]. 4. Demand and Inventory - **Demand**: The market supply is sufficient, and sugar mills face great pressure in sales. Traders and middlemen have little intention to stock up, and downstream enterprises purchase as needed [143]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of June, the national industrial inventory was 2.1623 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 417,500 tons. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 968,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 113,000 tons [145].

白糖：估值有安全边际 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.27 | 0.24 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 107 | 25 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5930 | -20 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 43 | 1 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5573 | -94 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 357 | 74 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 11 日 【趋势强度】 白糖趋势强度：1 ■ 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 期货研究 高频信息：巴西中南部 7 月上半月压榨进度加快；印度季风降水高于 LPA；巴西 6 ...

Group 1 - Concerns over declining sugarcane production in Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, have led to a rise in raw sugar futures for the first time in four days, with prices increasing by 1.2% to 16.20 cents per pound [1] - Covrig Analytics analyst Claudiu Covrig noted that despite high sugarcane crushing volumes during the peak season, ongoing reports of production declines may lead to a sudden depletion of sugarcane harvests in Brazil by Q4 [1][3] - The Brazilian government's agricultural forecasting agency, Conab, projected a total sugarcane production of 663.4 million tons for the 2025-2026 season, a 2% decrease from the previous year, with some forecasts suggesting production could fall below 600 million tons [3] Group 2 - The overall sugar price has seen a decline due to expectations of global oversupply, although the strengthening of the Brazilian real may limit this decrease by raising the minimum price threshold for ethanol [3] - The relative pricing of ethanol and raw sugar directly influences sugar production decisions, with mills adjusting their production based on the ethanol-to-sugar price ratio [3] - Current assessments of ethanol raw material prices have decreased to approximately 15.5 cents per pound, down from the previous 15 cents [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased by about 0.84%. Globally, the production prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia are favorable, and Brazil shows strong production signs, leading to a loose supply expectation and pressuring the raw sugar price. In China, the profit outside the quota remains relatively high, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start production in September, increasing supply temporarily. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the food and beverage industry has restocking needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks is picking up. Currently, the inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. The estimated sugar production for the 2025/26 season is 1120 million tons, a slight increase of 4 million tons year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the expected increase in imports and weak spot prices are dragging the sugar futures price to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Future factors to watch: consumption, and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. The import expectation increase and weak spot prices are dragging the sugar futures price to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to conduct short - side trading [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of the ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 1.05% this week. As of July 29, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar were 199,477 contracts, a 0.36% increase from the previous period; the non - commercial short positions were 261,625 contracts, a 1.21% increase; the non - commercial net positions were - 62,148 contracts, a 4.05% decrease. The top 20 net positions of Zhengzhou sugar futures were - 30,938 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 18,545 contracts [11][20]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6030 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5830 yuan/ton. As of August 5, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5584 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decrease; inside the quota, it was 4398 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5683 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease; inside the quota, it was 4474 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decrease. As of August 5, the profit of imported Brazilian sugar inside the quota was 1457 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase from last week; outside the quota, it was 271 yuan/ton, a 7.97% increase. The profit of imported Thai sugar inside the quota was 1381 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; outside the quota, it was 172 yuan/ton, a 12.42% increase [24][27][33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3221 million tons. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to June was only 1.04 million tons, a 19.7% year - on - year decrease [37][41][45]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a 12.00% increase from the previous period, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a 11.45% increase. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a 10.61% decrease from the previous period; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a 14.24% increase [49][54]. 3.4 Option and Stock - related Markets - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of sugar this week is presented, but specific data is not summarized here. - **Stock Market**: Information about Nanning Sugar Industry's price - to - earnings ratio is presented, but specific data is not summarized here.

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a "Sugar Data Daily" by ITG Guomao Futures [3] Group 2: Core View - The current sugar market shows a pattern of "strong overseas, weak domestic". International sugar prices are dominated by Brazil's production increase and crude oil fluctuations, while the domestic market faces the dual pressures of processed sugar impact and weak demand. In the medium to long term, with a global surplus, the upside for sugar prices is limited. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading approach [4] Group 3: Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - On August 7, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 6030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Chenming, Yunnan it was 5830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan it was 5715 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong it was 6090 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - SR09 was at 5667, down 16; SR01 was down 43; SR09 - 01 was 82, up 27 [4] Group 4: Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.202, down 0.0050; the real - RMB exchange rate was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the rupee - RMB exchange rate was 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - The ice raw sugar主力 was at 16.04, unchanged; the London white sugar主力 was at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 was at 66.96, unchanged [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoint - The sugar market is in a period of oscillation, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1. Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price is 16.03 cents/pound, down 0.01 from the previous period; the mainstream spot price is 5950 yuan/ton, down 20; the futures main contract price is 5667 yuan/ton, down 16. The 91 spread is 82 yuan/ton, up 27; the 15 spread is 42 yuan/ton, down 18; the mainstream spot basis is 283 yuan/ton, down 4 [1] 3.2. Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information shows that the sugar - cane crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil has accelerated; the monsoon rainfall in India is higher than the Long - Period Average (LPA); Brazil exported 336 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase. China imported 42 million tons of sugar in June [1] 3.3. Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - making season will be 1.116 billion tons, consumption will be 1.58 billion tons, and imports will be 500 million tons; in the 25/26 sugar - making season, production will be 1.12 billion tons, consumption will be 1.59 billion tons, and imports will be 500 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 1.116 billion tons (+120 million tons), cumulative sales were 811 million tons (+152 million tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.7%. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 sugar - making season were 251 million tons (-65 million tons) [2] 3.4. International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season (previously 488 million tons). As of July 16 in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 9.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 1.566 billion tons (-159 million tons), and the cumulative MIX was 51.02%, up 2.69 percentage points year - on - year. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 3.49 billion tons, up from 2.95 billion tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season (+540 million tons). The cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.008 billion tons (+127 million tons) [3]

Group 1: Report Basic Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Industry: Sugar [1] Group 2: Market Quotes and Operation Suggestions - Futures Quotes: SR509 closed at 5667 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or 0.39%, with a position of 161,306 contracts, a decrease of 11,214 contracts; SR601 closed at 5585 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan or 0.75%, with a position of 278,027 contracts, an increase of 15,743 contracts; US Sugar 10 closed at 16.04 cents/pound, down 0.05 cents or 0.31%, with a position of 387,802 contracts, an increase of 409 contracts; US Sugar 03 closed at 16.70 cents/pound, down 0.05 cents or 0.30%, with a position of 231,986 contracts, an increase of 1,333 contracts [7] - Market Analysis: New York raw sugar futures weakened on Wednesday. The fundamentals of raw sugar have been relatively calm recently. The improvement in Brazilian weather has led to an increase in sugar production, which has pressured sugar prices, but the expectation of a decline in the total volume still exists. The market has digested the strong expectation of an increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to decline yesterday. The spot prices in domestic producing areas also fell. Today, Zhengzhou Sugar 09 continued to decline but showed resistance. Industrial funds on the 09 contract have shifted from short to long, while speculative funds are shorting the 01 contract. Currently, the basis is large, which is unfavorable for short positions. Attention should be paid to whether speculative funds will short technically [7][8] Group 3: Industry News - Brazil's Sugar Exports: Brazil exported 3.5937 million tons of sugar in July, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. From April to July in the 2025/26 sugar season, Brazil exported a total of 10.76 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year decrease of 7.64% [9] - Impact of Fertilizer Prices: Citigroup analysts warned that the rising fertilizer prices may affect the profitability of producers in the 2025/26 season, although the harvests of corn and sugarcane improved in July due to favorable weather conditions [9] - Guangxi's Sugar Production: In the 2024/25 sugar season, Guangxi crushed 48.5954 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5847 million tons; produced 6.465 million tons of mixed sugar, a year-on-year increase of 0.2836 million tons; the sugar production rate was 13.30%, a year-on-year increase of 1.22 percentage points. As of the end of July, Guangxi had sold 5.4961 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 0.3966 million tons; the sales rate was 85.01%, a year-on-year increase of 2.51 percentage points. In July, the single-month sugar sales volume was 0.3555 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2178 million tons; the industrial inventory was 0.9689 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.113 million tons [9] - Yunnan's Sugar Production: In the 2024/2025 sugar season, Yunnan crushed 18.063 million tons of sugarcane (compared with 15.4494 million tons in the previous season), produced 2.4188 million tons of sugar (compared with 2.032 million tons in the previous season), with a sugar production rate of 13.39% (compared with 13.15% in the previous season), and produced 28,200 tons of alcohol (compared with 28,000 tons in the previous season). As of July 31, 2025, Yunnan had sold 1.9514 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 0.3262 million tons; the sales rate was 80.68%, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. The monthly sugar sales volume in July was 200,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 467,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 60,600 tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures Included: Spot price trends, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading positions of the top 20 seats in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [11][13][15][17] - Trading Positions of Top 20 Seats: Detailed data on the trading positions of the top 20 seats in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar are provided, including the changes in long and short positions of various futures companies [20]

白糖产业日报 2025-08-07 作上建议偏空交易为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5667 | -16 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 161306 | -11214 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 18615 | -187 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -18069 | -7033 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | | | 进口加 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Researcher Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - New York raw sugar futures weakened, with the main October contract down 0.98% to 16.09 cents/pound, due to bearish production data from mid - southern Brazil in the first half of July, but concerns about Brazil's output decline and potential beet sugar production cuts in the EU remain [7] - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract continued to fall, but the 09 contract showed resistance and the 01 contract had a bottom - building pattern. With a large basis and the bearish impact of imported sugar fully released, the possibility of further decline is low [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market Quotes | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SR509 | 5683 yuan/ton | -24 | -0.42% | 172519 | -12540 | | SR601 | 5628 yuan/ton | -9 | -0.16% | 262284 | 11742 | | US Sugar 10 | 16.09 cents/pound | -0.16 | -0.98% | 387393 | -2227 | | US Sugar 03 | 16.75 cents/pound | -0.13 | -0.77% | 230653 | 4038 | [7] Domestic Market - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract continued to decline. The 09 contract closed at 5683 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 0.42%, with a reduction of 12540 positions. Domestic spot prices in production areas also fell, with Nanning sugar at 5090 yuan and Kunming sugar at 5800 yuan [8] Group 5: Industry News Guangxi - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugarcane crushed was 4859.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 258.47 million tons; the output of mixed sugar was 646.50 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.36 million tons; the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales were 549.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.66 million tons; the sales rate was 85.01%, a year - on - year increase of 2.51 percentage points. In July, the monthly sugar sales were 35.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.78 million tons; the industrial inventory was 96.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3 million tons [9] Yunnan - The 2024/2025 sugar - crushing season in Yunnan lasted 206 days, ending 5 days earlier than last year. The total sugarcane crushed was 1806.30 million tons (compared to 1544.94 million tons in the previous season), the sugar output was 241.88 million tons (203.20 million tons in the previous season), the sugar - making rate was 13.39% (13.15% in the previous season), and the alcohol output was 2.82 million tons (2.80 million tons in the previous season). As of July 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales were 195.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.62 million tons; the sugar sales rate was 80.68%, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. The monthly sugar sales in July were 20.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 million tons; the industrial inventory was 46.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.06 million tons [9] Brazil - In the first half of July, in mid - southern Brazil, the sugarcane crushed was 4982.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 641.1 million tons (14.77%); the ATR of sugarcane was 133.66kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 9.79kg/ton; the sugar - making ratio was 53.68%, a year - on - year increase of 3.79%; the ethanol output was 2.194 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of 0.051 billion liters (2.36%); the sugar output was 340.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.6 million tons (15.07%) [9] Group 6: Data Overview - The report includes charts on spot trends, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position of the top 20 seats in the main Zhengzhou sugar contract, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][18]

Market Overview - As of August 5, the profit from producing white sugar in China using imported Brazilian raw sugar is approximately 1839 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 642 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1] - The profit from producing white sugar in China using imported Thai raw sugar is about 1792 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 582 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1] - Tereos, one of the world's largest sugar producers, reported a significant decline in quarterly profits due to low sugar prices impacting its core business and increased competition in its ethanol business due to a weaker dollar [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The sugar production in Brazil's central-southern region for the 25/26 season is expected to decrease year-on-year due to heavy rainfall in June, while sugar production in India and Thailand is projected to increase [2] - Domestic sugar sales data is strong, with sugar inventory in Guangxi estimated at around 800,000 tons [2] - There is uncertainty regarding future import levels, with expectations of 750,000 tons imported in July, followed by a gradual decrease in August, which may alleviate import pressure [2] Price Trends and Recommendations - Recent rapid adjustments in Zhengzhou sugar prices are primarily influenced by overall market corrections, but the current season is entering a consumption peak, suggesting strong cost support for domestic sugar prices [2] - The market is advised to consider buying on stabilization, with a reference support level for Zhengzhou sugar at 5500 CNY/ton [2] - International oil prices have declined, influenced by increased OPEC+ supply and concerns over weak global demand, which has led to a weak performance in Zhengzhou sugar futures [3] - The market lacks new fundamental themes, with attention on support around 5600 CNY/ton, and short-term trading is recommended [3]