热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 一、全球糖市中短期供需宽松格局依旧，长期供应压力或减弱 2025/26榨季全球食糖产量增加，而消费增长乏力，全球食糖市场供需格局宽松。2025年11月国际糖业 组织（ISO）预测，2024/25年度全球糖市供需缺口为292万吨，而2025/26年度全球糖市供应过剩量为 163万吨，食糖产量约为1.818亿吨，同比增幅3.2%；食糖消费量约为1.801亿吨，同比增幅仅为0.6%。 2025年11月咨询机构Datagro预测，2025/26榨季全球糖市供应过剩量料为100万吨。2026年2月咨询机构 StoneX发布报告预测，2025/26榨季全球糖市供应过剩量为290万吨，该预测值较11月份下调了近80万 吨。 糖价持续低位或导致2026/27榨季全球食糖产量下降，缓解供应压力，多家机构预计2026/27榨季全球糖 市供应过剩将收窄。Green Pool预计，2026/27榨季全球糖市供应过剩量将降至15.6万吨，低于2025/26榨 季的274万吨。Czarnikow预计，2026/27榨季全球食糖盈余将从上一榨季的830万吨大幅收窄至340万 ...

来源：紫金天风期货研究所 以下内容仅为个人观点与解读，仅供参考！ 一、总体概览 2月10日，农业农村部市场预警专家委员会发布了最新的中国食糖供需平衡表，2025/26年度2月预测数据与1月预测 完全一致，表明市场预期趋于稳定。 但从2023/24年度至2025/26年度的纵向对比来看，中国食糖市场似乎正面临结构性转变--从供需紧缺转向供需宽松， 甚至出现阶段性过剩。 （来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 二、糖料种植面积持续扩张 糖料播种面积从2023/24年度的1262千公顷稳步增长至2025/26年度的1439千公顷，两年间增幅达14.0%。其中： 甜菜种植面积的扩张速度远超甘蔗，反映出北方糖料产区（主要为内蒙古、新疆等地）的积极扩产态势。这一方面 得益于近年来国内糖价处于相对高位对种植户的利润刺激，另一方面也与国家鼓励糖料种植、保障食糖安全的政策 导向有关。 三、单产表现分化，总产量仍稳步增长 值得关注的是，尽管种植面积大幅增加，但单产水平并未同步提升，甚至出现一定程度的回落： 指标（吨/公顷） 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 甘蔗面积：从1095千公顷增至1205千公顷，增长10.0%； 甜菜 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Views of the Report - The cotton market is expected to show a slightly stronger sideways trend. Although there are signs of a rebound in the futures market due to speculation about future production cuts, the near - term upside is limited, and the impact of the expected 2026 production cut will be more evident after October [1]. - The sugar market is expected to remain in a weak sideways trend. The international and domestic sugar markets are in a state of oversupply, with the core contradiction being the rapid increase in supply and relatively flat demand [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - In 2026/27, the target area for cotton planting in Xinjiang is set at around 36 million mu, a reduction of 5 - 7 million mu (over 10%) compared to the actual planting area of 41 - 43 million mu in 2025, indicating a significant structural adjustment in Xinjiang's cotton planting [1]. Sugar - StoneX's third revised report on the global sugar supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 crushing season predicts a sugar surplus of 3.7 million tons. It also expects Brazil's central - southern region to produce 41.5 million tons of sugar in the 2026/27 crushing season, a downward revision from the previous forecast [2]. - The domestic sugar market is in a weak state of oversupply. The main sugar - producing areas in China have entered the peak of the new crushing season, leading to a concentrated release of new sugar supply. The core contradiction is the mismatch between rapid supply growth and relatively flat demand [2].

Core Insights - International sugar prices rebounded in November, with ICE raw sugar futures closing at 15.21 cents per pound, a monthly increase of 5.48% [1] - Domestic sugar prices in China declined due to supply pressures, with Zhengzhou white sugar futures closing at 5400 yuan per ton, a monthly decrease of 1.51% [1] - The global sugar market is expected to have a supply gap of only 231,000 tons for the 2025/2026 season, indicating a near balance between supply and demand [2] Group 1: International Market Dynamics - The increase in global sugar production is primarily driven by India, Thailand, and Pakistan, with total production expected to reach 180.59 million tons, an increase of 5.42 million tons from the previous season [2] - Global sugar consumption is projected to rise to 180.82 million tons, with Asia and Africa being the main growth drivers over the next decade [2] - The USDA and Datagro predict a potential global sugar surplus ranging from 1 million to 4.2 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, reflecting uncertainty in future supply chains [2] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/2026 season is expected to increase by 300,000 to 700,000 tons, aligning with market expectations of 40 to 41 million tons [3] - As of mid-November, Brazil's cumulative sugar production reached 39.18 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.09% [3][4] - Despite a decrease in sugarcane crushing volume, the increase in the sugar extraction rate (ATR) has helped maintain production levels [4] Group 3: India's Sugar Sector - India's sugar production is projected to increase significantly, with the government raising the minimum sugarcane purchase price to 3,550 rupees per ton, a 4.41% increase [5] - The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) estimates a net sugar production of 30.95 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, an 18.54% increase from the previous season [6] - The Indian government has allowed the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar for the 2025/2026 season, with calls for additional export quotas due to high production levels [6] Group 4: Thailand's Recovery - Thailand's sugar production is expected to recover significantly, with total sugar production projected between 10.5 million to 11 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, an increase from the previous season [7] - The official start of the sugarcane crushing season is set for December 1, with favorable weather conditions anticipated to boost production [7] Group 5: China's Sugar Market - China's sugar production for the 2025/2026 season is expected to reach 11.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 540,000 tons [8] - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure from both increased local production and high import levels, leading to a potentially oversupplied market [8][9] - As of late November, the number of sugar factories operating in Guangxi has decreased, reflecting challenges faced by producers amid low prices [9] Group 6: Future Outlook - The market is expected to transition from expectations to reality, with key factors being the actual implementation of India's ethanol policy and the final production levels in the Northern Hemisphere [13] - The domestic sugar market is likely to experience continued pressure from new sugar supply and imports, with prices fluctuating around the production cost level [13] - A potential rebound in sugar prices may depend on seasonal consumption increases and stronger international sugar prices [13]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: December 2, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - SR601 closed at 5405 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a position reduction of 10,944 lots [7] - SR605 closed at 5333 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a position increase of 3246 lots [7] - US Sugar 03 closed at 15.21 cents/pound, up 0.07 cents or 0.46%, with a position reduction of 2136 lots [7] - US Sugar 05 closed at 14.70 cents/pound, up 0.02 cents or 0.14%, with a position increase of 1719 lots [7] Market Analysis - New York raw sugar futures edged up slightly, with the main March contract rising 0.46% to 15.21 cents/pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main March contract fell 0.23% to $435.50/ton. The market is waiting for the production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the first half of November, and raw sugar is mainly oscillating [7] - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract maintained oscillation. The 01 contract closed at 5405 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a reduction of 10,944 lots. Domestic new sugar prices were lowered. The new sugar price in Nanning is 5530 yuan/ton, and in Kunming is 5500 yuan/ton. The number of sugar mills starting production in the south is increasing, and new sugar prices are falling. Speculative short - sellers in Zhengzhou sugar 01 are gradually leaving the market, driving up the futures price, and it is expected to end in a weak oscillation [8] 3. Industry News Thailand's Sugar Policy - Thailand's Sugarcane and Sugar Board announced that the benchmark price of sugarcane for the 2025/26 crushing season is set at 890 Thai baht/ton (corresponding to a sugar content of 10%), with a price floating standard of 53.40 Thai baht per 1% sugar content and a sugar production and sales subsidy of 381.43 Thai baht/ton [9] StoneX's Forecast - StoneX predicted a global sugar surplus of 3.7 million tons in the 2025/26 annual report, the highest since the 2017/18 season. Global sugar inventories are expected to increase by 5% to 77.3 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise to 39.9%, close to the 20 - year historical average [9] - StoneX lowered its sugar production forecast for Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 crushing season from 42.1 million tons to 41.5 million tons, while raising its ethanol production forecast by 100 million liters to a record 36.1 billion liters. The expected sugarcane crushing volume remains unchanged at 620.5 million tons, an increase of 3.6% compared to the previous season [9] Yunnan's Sugar Production - As of the end of November, 10 sugar mills in Yunnan had started production, 5 more than the same period last year. However, due to machine running - in at the beginning of production, the average sugar yield was about 10%, down 1 percentage point year - on - year. The new sugar production in Yunnan in November is expected to be about 40,000 tons, compared with 38,600 tons in the same period of the previous season [10] 4. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including spot price trends, 2601 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, and Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind, Pan - Sugar Technology, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [11][14][21] - The report also provides trading volume, long - position and short - position data of top 20 futures companies in the sugar futures market, with a total trading volume of 199,924 lots, a decrease of 17,021 lots; total long - positions of 248,086 lots, a decrease of 8,209 lots; and total short - positions of 268,090 lots, a decrease of 10,255 lots [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Different institutions have varying forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand situation in the 2025/26 season, with some predicting a surplus and others a narrowing deficit [4][8][24] - Recently, the international sugar price has been weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price has been relatively resilient, with the near - term contracts stronger than the far - term ones. The 01 contract faces significant pressure around 5500 and has fallen back. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to short at high levels in the 05 contract [5][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 3.2 Daily Reminders - Fundamental data: DATAGRO estimates that the global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season will be revised down from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons; Czarnikow raises the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August forecast; StoneX predicts a 2.77 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season; ISO estimates a 231,000 - ton supply deficit in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous estimate. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China reached 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales reached 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and pre - mixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4] - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5730, with a basis of 272 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [5] - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5] - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [5] - Main positions: The net short positions are decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5] - Expectations: Recently, the international sugar price has been weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price has been relatively resilient. The near - term contracts are stronger than the far - term ones. The 01 contract faces significant pressure around 5500 and has fallen back. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to short at high levels in the 05 contract [5][8] 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4 Fundamental Data - Bullish factors: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose [6][8] - Bearish factors: An increase in global sugar production, a surplus in global supply in the new season, the international sugar price falling to around 14 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import pressure [6][8] - Supply and demand balance sheet: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 season. For example, ISO estimates a narrowing supply deficit, while StoneX, Czarnikow, etc., predict a surplus [4][8][24] - Import and export data: In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and pre - mixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4][8] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Decline in Brazil's Sugar Production Ratio, Global Output Increase May Fall Short of Expectations [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the global main producing areas are still realizing increased production, but Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast, mainly reducing the sugar production expectations of Brazil and India. Brazil's final sugar production may fall short of previous expectations due to a significant decline in the sugar production ratio. The international sugar price shows signs of bottoming out and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. In the domestic market, the short - term sugar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, while in the medium - to - long - term, there is still some downward pressure on sugar prices, but the space is relatively limited [3]. - For trading strategies, in the unilateral aspect, it is recommended to operate within a range considering the international and domestic sugar price trends; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: Internationally, the decline in Brazil's sugar production ratio and the adjustment of global sugar production expectations affect the international sugar price trend. Domestically, the start of sugar mills' production, import policies, and cost factors influence the domestic sugar price trend. - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Due to the decline in Brazil's sugar production ratio and the bottoming - out signs of international sugar prices, international sugar prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, while domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate, so it is recommended to operate within a range [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - **2025/26 Sugar Surplus Reduction**: Czarnikow raised the estimated surplus of the global sugar market in the 2025/26 season to 740,000 tons, while Datagro lowered its forecast of the global sugar supply surplus to 100,000 tons. Datagro also lowered the sugar production forecasts of Brazil and India, and major importers such as China and Indonesia increased their purchases at low prices [8][10]. 2. Brazil's Sugar Production Situation - **High - Level Production Forecast**: According to Conab data, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 45.02 million tons, slightly higher than that in August and the second - highest in recent years [11]. - **Significant Decline in the Bi - weekly Sugar Production Ratio in Central - Southern Brazil**: In the second half of October 2025, the sugar production ratio in central - southern Brazil decreased by 3 percentage points to 46.02%, while the ethanol production increased [13]. - **Year - on - Year Increase in Sugar Production in Central - Southern Brazil in This Season**: As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil reached 38.085 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.63%, but the cumulative ethanol production decreased by 6.91% [18]. - **Significant Increase in Sugar Inventory and Exports**: As of the second half of October, the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil was 12.1107 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.99%. Brazil exported about 4.205 million tons of sugar in October, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [23]. 3. Sugar Production in Other Countries - **Slight Increase in Thailand's New Season**: The 2024/25 season's sugar production was 10.05 million tons, and the 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase, with an expected increase in exports of 1 million tons [27]. - **India's Sugar Production and Policy**: ISMA estimated that the total sugar production in the 2025/26 season would be 34.35 million tons, and the net production after excluding ethanol use would be 30.95 million tons. The Indian government approved the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season, and the northern states raised the purchase price of sugarcane [35]. 4. Domestic Sugar Market Situation - **Sugar Mills Start Production**: Sugar mills in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Guangxi have started or are about to start production. The start - up time in Guangxi has been postponed, and the number of start - up mills is expected to be significantly lower than the same period last year [39]. - **High Import Profits**: The import profit situation of sugar from Brazil and Thailand shows that there are certain profit opportunities [40][41]. - **Decline in Import Volume**: In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, and the import volume of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased. It is expected that the import volume in October will be similar to that of last year [48]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides a large amount of data on Brazil's sugar production, including cumulative sugar production, cumulative cane crushing volume, bi - weekly sugar production ratio, etc.; India's sugar production and export data; Thailand's sugar production and export data; and China's sugar production, import volume, and inventory data [14][17][23][39][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Multiple institutions predict that the global sugar market will shift from a supply - demand balance to a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. The expected surplus varies among different institutions, such as 740 million tons by Czarnikow, 277 million tons by StoneX, and 153 million tons by Datagro. In the short - term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar shows relative resistance while the international sugar price is falling, but the long - term divergence between domestic and international trends is considered unsustainable. The main 01 contract is under pressure around 5500 and is expected to be in a short - term volatile and bearish trend [4][8][35]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply. Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons, StoneX predicts a 277 - million - ton surplus, and ISO estimates a 231,000 - ton supply gap (significantly reduced from the previous forecast). In China, as of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 11.1621 billion tons, cumulative sales were 10 billion tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and imported 151,400 tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5720, and the basis for the 01 contract is 272, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August 2024/25, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the main trend is still bearish, so it is bearish overall [4]. - **Expectation**: In the short term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant to the decline of international sugar prices, but in the long term, the divergence between domestic and international trends is not sustainable. The main 01 contract is under pressure around 5500 and is expected to be in a short - term volatile and bearish trend [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand. For example, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) expects a supply gap of 20,000 tons (almost balanced), StoneX predicts a 277 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow forecasts a 620 - million - ton surplus (another mention is 750 million tons), Datagro expects a 153 - million - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics predicts a 420 - million - ton surplus, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus forecasts a 40 - million - ton surplus, and Green Pool expects a 115 - million - ton surplus [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, China's sugar production is expected to remain stable at around 11.2 million tons, imports are expected to be 5 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 15.9 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounds, while in the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar price trends is unsustainable. There is an increased probability of short - sellers re - entering the market when the price is above 5500 [5]. - Domestic consumption is good, inventory is decreasing, and the tariff on syrup has increased. The change of the US cola formula to use sucrose is also beneficial. However, global sugar production is increasing, and there is an expected surplus in the new season. The foreign sugar price has fallen below 15 cents per pound, opening the import profit window and increasing import pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a 2.77 - million - ton surplus, while ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5780, and the basis for the 01 contract is 286, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, considered neutral [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 season. ISO expects a supply gap of 200,000 tons (nearly balanced), StoneX predicts a 2.77 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow forecasts a 7.4 - million - ton surplus, Datagro expects a 1.53 - million - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics predicts a 4.2 - million - ton surplus, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a 400,000 - ton surplus, and Green Pool expects a 1.15 - million - ton surplus [36]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugarcane and beet planting and harvesting areas, yields, and sugar production are relatively stable. Import volume is expected to be 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [38]. 3.5 Position Data No detailed information provided on position data other than the main position being bearish.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The new sugar is about to be listed in large quantities, and the peak consumption season has passed. After continuous declines, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar (01) will experience short - term low - level shock adjustments. Although the overall center of gravity is moving down, the trend is tortuous, and there may be small intraday rebounds [4][8] - There are multiple factors affecting the sugar market. On one hand, there are positive factors such as good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of US cola formula to use sucrose. On the other hand, there are negative factors like the increase in global sugar production, the expected surplus in the new season, the drop in foreign sugar prices, and the opening of the import profit window [6] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX expected a 2.77 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season. ISO predicted a supply deficit of 231,000 tons for the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons. The overall situation was bearish [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou was 5,840 yuan, and the basis was 437 (for the 01 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which was bullish [4] - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 1.16 million tons, a neutral situation [4] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average, which was bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The position was bearish, the net short position increased, and the main trend was unclear, which was bearish [4] 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Forecast by Institutions**: Different institutions had different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO expected a supply deficit of 20,000 tons (close to balance); StoneX expected a 2.77 - million - ton surplus; Czarnikow expected a surplus between 6.2 million and 7.5 million tons; Datagro expected a 1.53 - million - ton surplus; Covrig Analytics expected a 4.2 - million - ton surplus; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expected a 400,000 - ton surplus; Green Pool expected a 1.15 - million - ton surplus [34] - **China's Sugar Supply - demand Balance Sheet**: The sugar - cane planting area in 2025/26 was expected to be 1.23 million hectares, the beet planting area was 210,000 hectares, the sugar production was expected to be 11.2 million tons, the import volume was 5 million tons, the consumption was 15.9 million tons, and the balance change was 120,000 tons. The international sugar price was expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price was expected to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [36] - **Import Cost**: The duty - paid cost of imported raw sugar processed with a 50% tariff in September 2025 was about 5,454 yuan per ton, with the ICE raw sugar average price of about 15.79 cents per pound and the import source from Brazil [41] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content