Report Information - Report Title: [White Sugar Weekly Report 20250808] Processed Sugar Captures Market, Spot Quotes Decline Steadily [1][2][10][26][39][62][79][89][105][116][128][141][148] - Date: 2025 - 08 - 08 [1][9] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The SR509 contract of white sugar is likely to decline in the short term but has limited downside space, with support at the 5600 price level [3]. - Globally, the 2025/26 sugar season is expected to have a loose supply - demand pattern, with the SR2509 contract expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices within the range [3]. - Key factors to monitor include Brazil's production, India's production, EU policies, and domestic sugar production, sales, and inventory [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. White Sugar Weekly Data Summary - **Futures Prices**: This week, the 1 - month closing price was 5573 yuan/ton, the 5 - month closing price was 5530 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month closing price was 5680 yuan/ton. Compared with intraday prices, the 1 - month price decreased by 47 yuan/ton, the 5 - month price decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month price decreased by 53 yuan/ton [7]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the spot prices of white sugar in Nanning, Liuzhou, and Kunming decreased by 70 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 70 yuan/ton respectively compared with last week [7]. - **Basis**: As of August 8, the basis of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 was 280 yuan/ton, showing a slight decline [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of white sugar warehouse receipts was 18,615, a decrease of 858 compared with last week [7]. 2. International Supply Brazil - **Production in the 2024/25 Season**: The output was set at 40.17 million tons, a decrease of 2.25 million tons compared with the previous season, but still within a historically high - output range [32]. - **Production in the 2025/26 Season**: As of the first half of July, the cumulative sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22%. The production in the first half of July was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07%. The 2025/26 season is expected to see an increase in production, with an estimated output of about 42 million tons, which will put pressure on raw sugar prices [33]. - **UNICA Bi - weekly Data**: In the first half of July, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07%. The cumulative sugar production from the beginning of the 2025/26 season to the first half of July was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22% [42][43]. - **Alcohol - to - Oil Ratio and Ethanol - to - Sugar Price**: As of August 1, the alcohol - to - oil ratio in São Paulo, Brazil was 65.57%, and the ethanol - to - sugar price was about 14.10 cents/pound, with the raw sugar having an advantage of about 2.04 cents/pound over the ethanol - to - sugar price [58]. - **Export and Inventory**: In July, Brazil exported 3.5937 million tons of sugar and molasses, a decrease of 4.98% compared with the same period last year. As of August 6, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 5.5777 million tons [77]. As of July 15, the sugar inventory in Brazil was 339,000 tons, at a relatively low level in the past five years [73]. India and Thailand - **India**: In the 2024/25 season, the estimated net sugar production was about 26.1 - 26.2 million tons. In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to reach about 34.9 million tons, an 18% increase [76]. - **Thailand**: In the 2024/25 season, the sugar production was 10.0418 million tons, a significant increase compared with last year. In the 2025/26 season, the production is expected to continue to increase slightly [83]. Global Production - **2024/25 Season**: The global sugar supply was still in a loose pattern, but the tightness was marginally reduced from the previous period [87]. - **2025/26 Season**: The global sugar supply is expected to turn loose, with different institutions predicting supply surpluses ranging from 115,000 to 7.5 million tons [87]. 3. Domestic Supply - **Production in the 2024/25 Season**: The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.56%, and the cumulative sales rate was 79.73%, 5.42 percentage points faster than the same period last year [103]. - **Import**: The quota - free import profit window opened earlier, and it is expected that the import volume will continue to increase significantly in the third quarter. In June, the domestic sugar import was 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons [119]. - **Syrup and Premixed Powder Import**: In June, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. The import of three types of goods under the 170290 tariff item remained at a low level, while the import of two types of goods under the 2106906 tariff item increased significantly [134]. 4. Demand and Inventory - **Demand**: The market supply is sufficient, and sugar mills face great pressure in sales. Traders and middlemen have little intention to stock up, and downstream enterprises purchase as needed [143]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of June, the national industrial inventory was 2.1623 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 417,500 tons. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 968,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 113,000 tons [145].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market focus has shifted to the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. Currently, multiple institutions expect increased sugar production in Brazil and India, leading to a global sugar supply surplus. In the domestic market, imports decreased in Q1, domestic sugar sales were fast, and inventory pressure was relatively light. For Zhengzhou sugar futures, due to the weak international sugar prices and insufficient domestic positive support, a volatile approach should be adopted [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market Information Summary - **Thailand**: As of March 23, 2024/25, Thailand's sugar production was 9.9758 million tons, a 14.58% increase (1.2698 million tons) compared to the same period last year [4]. - **Domestic**: The sales - to - production ratio is at a high level in the same period over the years, and sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season is expected to increase slightly [5]. - **Price Information**: For Zhengzhou sugar futures, due to weak international sugar prices and insufficient domestic positive support, a volatile approach should be taken [6]. Fundamentals - **CFTC Net Long Positions**: Net long positions have changed little recently and remain at a low level in the same period over the years [7]. - **Brazil**: - By the end of April 2025/26, Brazil's cumulative sugar production was 1.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 38.62%. In April, exports were 1.5558 million tons, and the number of ships waiting at ports increased. Multiple institutions expect an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year. The ICE - ethanol - to - sugar price spread is 3.34, with minor fluctuations. Import profit is positive but has declined from recent highs [7][18]. - **India**: By the end of April, India's cumulative sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.33%. Multiple institutions expect an increase in India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year [7]. - **China**: The sugar association raised China's sugar production in the 2024/25 season by 150,000 tons to 11.15 million tons. It is predicted that the sugar - crop planting area in 2025/26 will be 1,440 thousand hectares, a 3.2% increase from the previous year, and sugar production will reach 11.2 million tons. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio in April was 65.22%, the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons [7]. Global Sugar Supply and Demand and Related Institutions' Forecasts - **Green Pool**: Predicts a slight global sugar supply surplus of 1.15 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. Global sugar production is expected to increase by 5.3% to 199.1 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 0.95% to 197 million tons [11]. - **Datagro**: Predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production is expected to reach 42.04 million tons, India's to increase from 26 million tons to 31.6 million tons, and Thailand's from 10.05 million tons to 11.18 million tons [12]. Brazil - **Production**: By the end of April, the bi - weekly sugar production in the central - southern region was 856,000 tons, and the cumulative production was 1.58 million tons [13]. - **Export**: In April, exports were 1.5558 million tons, and the number of waiting ships at ports increased [18]. - **Ethanol Situation**: The sugar - ethanol price spread is 3.34, with minor fluctuations [22]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Multiple institutions expect an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year. Julio Maria Borges predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in 2025/26 will remain at 35.1 million tons, and production will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [24][26]. India - **Market**: As of the end of April 2024/25, India's sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.33%. The number of operating sugar mills decreased by 4 to 19 compared to the same period last year, and the crushed sugar - cane volume decreased by 11.44% [27][32]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: StoneX predicts India's sugar production in 2025/26 to be 32.3 million tons, and the USDA predicts it to reach 35 million tons, a 26% increase from the revised estimate of this season [36]. Thailand - **Sugar Production**: As of March 23, 2024/25, Thailand's cumulative crushed sugar - cane volume increased by 12.2%, sugar - cane sugar content increased by 0.27%, sugar - production rate increased by 0.227%, and sugar production increased by 14.58% to 9.9758 million tons [39]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Virit Viseshsinth predicts Thailand's sugar production in 2024/25 to reach 10.39 million tons, an 18% increase year - on - year [42]. United States - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 crushing season, the United States' sugar production and ending inventory are expected to decrease. Production is expected to be 9.285 million tons, and ending inventory is expected to be 1.436 million tons [43][44]. Domestic Market - **Sales**: The cumulative sales - to - production ratio is the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons [46]. - **Import**: In March, imports were 61,300 tons, at a low level of cumulative imports for the year [48]. - **Trade**: Import profit has declined from its high level [52]. International Sugar Market - **Net Long Positions**: CFTC fund net long positions remain at a relatively low level [56]. Zhengzhou Sugar - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Basis and warehouse receipts have reached "phased" highs [59].