Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market focus has shifted to the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. Currently, multiple institutions expect increased sugar production in Brazil and India, leading to a global sugar supply surplus. In the domestic market, imports decreased in Q1, domestic sugar sales were fast, and inventory pressure was relatively light. For Zhengzhou sugar futures, due to the weak international sugar prices and insufficient domestic positive support, a volatile approach should be adopted [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market Information Summary - **Thailand**: As of March 23, 2024/25, Thailand's sugar production was 9.9758 million tons, a 14.58% increase (1.2698 million tons) compared to the same period last year [4]. - **Domestic**: The sales - to - production ratio is at a high level in the same period over the years, and sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season is expected to increase slightly [5]. - **Price Information**: For Zhengzhou sugar futures, due to weak international sugar prices and insufficient domestic positive support, a volatile approach should be taken [6]. Fundamentals - **CFTC Net Long Positions**: Net long positions have changed little recently and remain at a low level in the same period over the years [7]. - **Brazil**: - By the end of April 2025/26, Brazil's cumulative sugar production was 1.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 38.62%. In April, exports were 1.5558 million tons, and the number of ships waiting at ports increased. Multiple institutions expect an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year. The ICE - ethanol - to - sugar price spread is 3.34, with minor fluctuations. Import profit is positive but has declined from recent highs [7][18]. - **India**: By the end of April, India's cumulative sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.33%. Multiple institutions expect an increase in India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year [7]. - **China**: The sugar association raised China's sugar production in the 2024/25 season by 150,000 tons to 11.15 million tons. It is predicted that the sugar - crop planting area in 2025/26 will be 1,440 thousand hectares, a 3.2% increase from the previous year, and sugar production will reach 11.2 million tons. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio in April was 65.22%, the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons [7]. Global Sugar Supply and Demand and Related Institutions' Forecasts - **Green Pool**: Predicts a slight global sugar supply surplus of 1.15 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. Global sugar production is expected to increase by 5.3% to 199.1 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 0.95% to 197 million tons [11]. - **Datagro**: Predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production is expected to reach 42.04 million tons, India's to increase from 26 million tons to 31.6 million tons, and Thailand's from 10.05 million tons to 11.18 million tons [12]. Brazil - **Production**: By the end of April, the bi - weekly sugar production in the central - southern region was 856,000 tons, and the cumulative production was 1.58 million tons [13]. - **Export**: In April, exports were 1.5558 million tons, and the number of waiting ships at ports increased [18]. - **Ethanol Situation**: The sugar - ethanol price spread is 3.34, with minor fluctuations [22]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Multiple institutions expect an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year. Julio Maria Borges predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in 2025/26 will remain at 35.1 million tons, and production will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [24][26]. India - **Market**: As of the end of April 2024/25, India's sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.33%. The number of operating sugar mills decreased by 4 to 19 compared to the same period last year, and the crushed sugar - cane volume decreased by 11.44% [27][32]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: StoneX predicts India's sugar production in 2025/26 to be 32.3 million tons, and the USDA predicts it to reach 35 million tons, a 26% increase from the revised estimate of this season [36]. Thailand - **Sugar Production**: As of March 23, 2024/25, Thailand's cumulative crushed sugar - cane volume increased by 12.2%, sugar - cane sugar content increased by 0.27%, sugar - production rate increased by 0.227%, and sugar production increased by 14.58% to 9.9758 million tons [39]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Virit Viseshsinth predicts Thailand's sugar production in 2024/25 to reach 10.39 million tons, an 18% increase year - on - year [42]. United States - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 crushing season, the United States' sugar production and ending inventory are expected to decrease. Production is expected to be 9.285 million tons, and ending inventory is expected to be 1.436 million tons [43][44]. Domestic Market - **Sales**: The cumulative sales - to - production ratio is the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons [46]. - **Import**: In March, imports were 61,300 tons, at a low level of cumulative imports for the year [48]. - **Trade**: Import profit has declined from its high level [52]. International Sugar Market - **Net Long Positions**: CFTC fund net long positions remain at a relatively low level [56]. Zhengzhou Sugar - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Basis and warehouse receipts have reached "phased" highs [59].