| 五、宏观信息 | | --- | | 国家统计局公布，6月份，我国制造业、非制造业和综合PMI分别为49.7%、50.5%和50.7%，比上月上升0.2、0.2和0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升。装备 | | 制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI均连续两个月位于扩张区间。 | | 财政部、国家税务总局、商务部发布公告，明确在2025年1月1日至2028年12月31日期间，境外投资者以中国境内居民企业分配的利润用于境内直接投资，若符 | | 合条件可按照投资额的10%抵免当年的应纳税额。 | | 深交所发布创业板"轻资产、高研发投入"认定标准，符合相关标准的上市公司不再受募集资金30%补流比例限制，有效提升相关公司融资灵活性，支持企业 | | 加大研发投入。经初步测算，符合标准的上市公司共计200余家，主要集中在信息技术、生物医药等战略性新兴产业。 | | 宏观信息 中共中央政治局召开会议，审议《党中央决策议事协调机构工作条例》。会议强调，党中央决策议事协调机构要坚持谋大事、议大事、抓大事，对重大工作实 | | 施更为有效的统领和协调，做到统筹不代替、到位不越位。要深入调查研究，提升决策议事质效，提出切 ...

晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 7 月 1 日 6 月 30 日 9 点半国家统计局公布 6 月 PMI 数据。 电话：0755-23838533 评论： 6 月中国制造业 PMI 为 49.7%，较上月回升 0.2 个百分点。其中，大型企业为 51.2%， 较上月回升 0.5 个百分点；中型企业为 48.6%，较上月回升 1.1 个百分点；小型 企业为 47.3%，较上月回落 2 个百分点，不同规模企业间的景气度分化明显。 6 月生产指数为 51%，较上月回升 0.3 个百分点。从需求上看，6 月新订单为 50.2%， 较上月回升 0.4 个百分点；而 6 月新出口订单为 47.7%，较上月回升 0.2 个百分 点。6 月制造业供需双方均有所回升，由于 PMI 中新订单指数重新回到扩张区间， 显示内需强于外需。 用新订单减去产成品库存来代表供需关系，6 月这一指数 2.1%，较上月回落 1.2 个百分点；以采购量与在手订单之差来代表企业生产积极性，6 月为 5%，较上月 回升 2.2 个百分点。6 月采购量为 50.2%，较上月回 ...

安徽头部光伏玻璃企业1800吨/天窑炉减产 金十期货7月1日讯，据SMM了解，近日安徽地区两座窑炉合计产能1800吨/天窑炉正式减产，7月首轮 减产行动开始，预计近期江西、安徽地区仍有窑炉堵口，减产。 ...

研究早观点 2025 年 7 月 1 日 星期二 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,444.43 | 0.59 | 供需情况有望改善 | | 深证成指 | | 10,465.12 | 0.83 | | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,936.08 | 0.37 | | | 中小板指 | | 6,528.34 | 0.87 | | | 创业板指 | | 2,153.01 | 1.35 | | | 科创 | 50 | 1,003.41 | 1.54 | | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | | | 分析师： 李召麒 【宏观策略】海外市场周观察（20250623~20250629） 【山证农业】农业行业周报（2025.06.23-2025.06.29）-看好海大集团的投资 机会 【行业评论】化学制药：创新药动态更新：BGB-43395：在既往三线 ...

光大证券表示，沪指仅调整一个交易日即强势反弹，显示出市场的韧性，接下来市场有望延续指数震荡、热点轮动的风格。 今日题材方面： 1、华为产业链 | 据证券时报报道，6月30日，华为宣布开源盘古70亿参数的稠密模型和720亿参数的混合专家模型（盘古Pro MoE 72B）。此外， 基于昇腾的模型推理技术也同步开源。据了解，华为最新开源的Pro MoE 72B大模型，在参数量仅为720亿，激活160亿参数量的情况下，通过动 态激活专家网络的创新设计，实现了以小打大的优异性能，甚至可以媲美千亿级模型的性能表现。 点评：招商证券指出，今年年初以来，国产大模型在技术与应用层面迎来密集更新。其中华为盘古5.5发布了涵盖自然语言、视觉、多模态等领 域的718B参数MOE架构大模型，并推出"世界模型"赋能自动驾驶等行业应用。其表示，从昇腾（Ascend）芯片、CANN异构计算架构、超节点 到盘古大模型，华为提供了一个完全自主、深度优化的闭环解决方案。 2、工业互联网 | 据中证金牛座6月30日报道，进一步深化金融服务新型工业化的相关政策有望研究出台。服务新型工业化，是金融服务实体经济 的重要内容。去年4月，国家金融监督管理总局 ...

Gaming Industry - The issuance of gaming licenses in China remains high, with 757 domestic game licenses issued in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of over 20% [1] - Key projects such as "Douluo Dalu: Soul Master Battle" by Kaiying Network and "Endless Cultivation" by Giant Network have received new licenses, indicating a recovery in the gaming sector [1] - The application of AI technology in gaming is becoming clearer, with expectations for more AI-native games to emerge, driving a revaluation of the gaming industry [1] Stablecoins - Hong Kong is accelerating the application of stablecoin policies to address long-standing issues in cross-border payments, aiming to enhance service to the real economy [2] - Stablecoins are seen as a cost-effective alternative in the traditional financial system, with potential to transform payment and capital market activities [2] - The stablecoin industry is expected to enter a period of compliant development as global regulatory policies are implemented [2] Foldable Phones - Honor is set to launch the Honor Magic V5, touted as the world's lightest and thinnest foldable phone, featuring advanced AI capabilities [3] - The Chinese foldable phone market is projected to maintain a 40% global market share, with shipments expected to exceed 17 million units by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 19.8% over the next five years [3] - Apple's entry into the foldable phone market is anticipated to boost global sales and drive innovation in the foldable supply chain [3] Regenerative Medicine - Chinese scientists have made a significant breakthrough in regenerative medicine by discovering a key "molecular switch" that regulates mammalian regeneration, marking a major original innovation [4] - The aging population in China is driving clinical demand for regenerative medicine, with technologies like stem cell therapy and 3D bioprinting entering a phase of clinical transformation [4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has identified regenerative medicine as a strategic emerging industry, indicating strong government support [4] Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The National Healthcare Security Administration is set to announce measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, which is expected to benefit domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies significantly [5] - The Chinese innovative drug market is projected to exceed 1.22 trillion yuan by 2025, with an annual growth rate of 8.53% [5] - The implementation of policies to support innovative drug development is expected to accelerate the commercialization of new drugs, with 2025 potentially marking a turning point for profitability in the sector [5] Solid Waste Management - A nationwide campaign has been launched to address illegal dumping of solid waste, focusing on hazardous waste and construction debris [6] - The solid waste management industry is experiencing a dual boost from policy support and technological upgrades, with significant market expansion expected [6] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of solid waste management as a pillar of the environmental protection industry [6] AI in Healthcare - Shanghai Ruijin Hospital has open-sourced its RuiPath pathology model, covering seven common cancer types, and initiated a global multi-center plan [7] - The integration of AI technology in healthcare is rapidly transforming the industry, with major tech companies accelerating their investments in AI healthcare solutions [7] - The development of large models in AI is expected to bring revolutionary changes to various medical applications, driving the intelligent upgrade of the healthcare industry [7] Photovoltaic Glass - Major domestic photovoltaic glass companies plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July to alleviate supply-demand imbalances [8][10] - The average net profit of the photovoltaic glass industry has dropped to a historical low, indicating severe profitability challenges [8] - The production reduction is expected to improve market conditions and help companies find a new equilibrium in supply and demand [8][10]

Group 1: IPO Market - In the first half of the year, 134 companies were accepted for IPOs in A-shares, a year-on-year increase of 362.07% [1] - The Beijing Stock Exchange was the main contributor with 83 companies accepted, followed by the ChiNext (19), Sci-Tech Innovation Board (15), Shenzhen Main Board (9), and Shanghai Main Board (8) [1] - June was a significant month for IPOs, with 107 companies accepted, accounting for 79.85% of the total for the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Solar Glass Industry - Leading domestic solar glass companies plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July to alleviate "involution" competition [1] - This reduction is expected to lead to a rapid decline in domestic solar glass supply, improving the supply-demand imbalance [1] - Domestic glass production is projected to decrease to approximately 45 GW in July [1] Group 3: Global Server Market - IDC forecasts that the global server market will reach $366 billion by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.6% [1] - The x86 server market is expected to grow by 39.9% to $283.9 billion, while the non-x86 server market is projected to grow by 63.7% to $82 billion [1] - Arm architecture servers are anticipated to grow at a rate of 70%, accounting for 21.1% of total shipments [1] Group 4: Automotive LED Market - The automotive LED and lighting market is expected to grow to $3.451 billion and $35.729 billion, respectively, by 2025 [2] - The recovery in the automotive market is anticipated in the second half of 2025, driven by the introduction of advanced technologies in new vehicle models [2] Group 5: Tesla Charging Stations - Tesla has launched its first batch of V4 supercharging stations, which are now operational in various locations including Shanghai and Gansu [2] - These charging stations feature multiple safety mechanisms and are now open to non-Tesla vehicles [2] Group 6: Market Performance - The A-share market saw a 2.76% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index in the first half of the year, while the North Exchange 50 Index surged by 39.45% [6] - Various sectors, including AI, humanoid robots, new consumption, innovative drugs, and solid-state batteries, attracted significant investment [6] - Over 3,700 stocks in the market rose in the first half, with more than 100 stocks increasing by over 100% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent developments in the Chinese stock market, including the performance of various sectors and the implications of economic indicators such as PMI, as well as the potential for upcoming policy changes and international relations affecting market sentiment [1][2][5]. Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI for June exceeded expectations, indicating stable growth momentum despite high tariffs from the US [2]. - Citi forecasts a strong actual growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of 2025, supported by a firm policy commitment to meet annual GDP targets [2]. - High-frequency tracking indicators show a rebound in China's exports to the US in June, suggesting continued monthly export growth [2]. Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.76% in the first half of the year, while the North Star 50 Index surged by 39.45% [2]. - On a recent trading day, major indices collectively increased, with the Shanghai Composite up 0.59%, the Shenzhen Component up 0.83%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.35% [3]. Sector Highlights - The military industry sector saw significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up [3]. - Brain-computer interface concept stocks continued to perform well, driven by recent advancements announced by Neuralink [3]. - The photovoltaic sector experienced a surge, with domestic new photovoltaic installations reaching 92.92 GW in May, a year-on-year increase of 388.03% [3]. - The gaming sector exploded with 158 new games approved in June, marking a record high for the year, indicating a clear trend of regulatory easing [3]. Investment Strategies - Various institutions predict a bullish outlook for July, with policy support, liquidity easing, and positive mid-year earnings expectations driving the market [5][6]. - Recommended sectors for investment include technology, dividends, and military industries, with small-cap stocks expected to maintain relative advantages [5][6]. Fund Flows - The defense and military industry saw the largest net inflow of funds, with significant investments in leading companies [15]. - The overall market experienced a net inflow of 344.71 billion yuan, with notable interest in sectors such as defense, electric power equipment, and media [15][26]. Company Performance - TaoTao Automotive expects a net profit growth of 70%-98% year-on-year for the first half of the year [10]. - Hanyu Pharmaceutical anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 142 million to 162 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [10]. Industry Developments - Major photovoltaic glass manufacturers plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July to address oversupply issues [11]. - The Ministry of Commerce announced continued anti-dumping duties on imported stainless steel products from several countries, impacting market dynamics [12].

光伏玻璃计划减产30% 金十数据6月30日讯，据了解，为破除"内卷式"竞争，近日国内头部光伏玻璃企业计划自7月开始集体减 产30%，此外部分玻璃企业堵口计划开始增多，预计后续国内光伏玻璃供应量将快速下滑，国内供需失 衡的状况将获得改善，预计7月国内玻璃产量将下降至45GW左右。 （上海有色网） ...

根据上海 有色的数据，不少玻璃企业6月份已有减产行为。此前6月国内共有3850吨/日产能放水焖炉， 3020吨/日产能堵口，另外近日还新增一座650吨/天窑炉减产。多家光伏 玻璃企业继续加大减产力度， 预计7月将减产30%左右。 (光伏资讯) ...