证券研究报告|策略定期研究 2026年03月02日 水电等主题右侧突破 ——主题形态学输出0227 证券分析师： 研究助理： 周浦寒 S0210524040007 杨逸帆 S0210124110046 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 Ø 风险提示：历史经验不代表未来;行业不确定性风险;国内经济复苏速度不及预期;海外 降息节奏不及预期;地缘政治风险。 2 华福证券 华福证券 Ø 主题形态学，0227最新输出： l 1）右侧突破，新增：水电、代糖、小金属、聚碳酸酯、钛白粉、有机硅、磷化 工、超硬材料、钒电池、半导体材料、半导体设备、MLCC、LNG等。 l 2）右侧趋势，持续：光伏，POE胶膜，BC电池。 l 3）底部企稳，新增：信托重仓、医美等。 l 4）底部反转，持续：六氟磷酸锂，锂电电解液，手机电池，白酒，品牌龙头。 录 n 主题形态学最新输出 n 风险提示 目 3 华福证券 华福证券 主题形态学的最新输出 备注：1）本文数据更新至2026/02/27。下同。2）主题形态构建的具体内容参考2025/12/14发布的专题报告《主题形态学三板斧》。3）主题形态的已持续天 数，指信号出 ...

Group 1 - The lithium battery electrolyte index dropped by 2% at the beginning of trading, with most constituent stocks declining [1] - Tianji Co. hit the daily limit down, while Haike Xinyuan, Duofuduo, Huasheng Lithium Battery, and Shida Shenghua experienced significant declines [1]

Group 1 - The lithium battery electrolyte index increased by over 4%, indicating a strong upward trend in the sector [1] - Component stocks showed a broad-based increase, with notable gains from companies such as Xinzhou Bang and Haike Xinyuan, both rising over 9% [1] - Tianji Co. saw an increase of over 6%, while Huasheng Lithium and Duofuduo both rose by more than 5% [1]

Group 1 - The lithium battery electrolyte index has strengthened, with most constituent stocks showing an upward trend [1] - Companies such as Xinzhou Bang have increased by over 8%, while others like Shanshan Co., Ltd., Shida Shenghua, Tianji Co., Ltd., and Huasheng Lithium Battery also experienced gains [1]

Investment Themes - The report identifies several investment themes based on market trends, including "right-side breakout" for Huangjiu, soybeans, and epoxy propylene, which are showing sustained performance [4][10] - "Right-side trends" are noted in sectors such as photovoltaics, power IoT, target materials, new energy equipment, and aluminum, indicating ongoing positive momentum [4][10] - New themes showing signs of stabilization at the bottom include generic drugs, service robots, consumer finance, smart logistics, and electric vehicles [4][10] - Newly identified themes indicating a bottom reversal include lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium battery electrolytes, and mobile phone batteries [4][10] Right-Side Breakout Opportunities - The Huangjiu index has shown a 5% increase over 20 days, while the soybean index has experienced a 3% increase, indicating potential investment opportunities [11] - The epoxy propylene index has a 12% increase over 20 days, suggesting strong performance in the basic chemical sector [11] Right-Side Trend Opportunities - The photovoltaic index has shown a 13% increase year-to-date (YTD), indicating strong growth potential in the power equipment sector [13] - Other indices such as the BC battery index and the power IoT index have also shown positive trends with YTD increases of 17% and 9%, respectively [13] Bottom Stabilization Opportunities - The CAR-T therapy index and the generic drug index have shown signs of stabilization, with the latter having a 3-day performance of 0% [17] - The electric vehicle index has also stabilized, with a slight increase of 1% over 5 days, indicating potential for recovery [17] Bottom Reversal Opportunities - The mobile phone battery index has shown a 2% increase over 5 days, while the lithium hexafluorophosphate index has a 3% increase, suggesting a potential turnaround in these sectors [19] - The lithium battery electrolyte index has also shown a 3% increase, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [19]

Group 1 - A-shares opened significantly lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.11% at midday [1] - The chemical, lithium battery electrolyte, power battery, and robotics sectors showed the highest gains, while the liquor, catering and tourism, and advanced packaging sectors experienced the largest declines [1] - The CSI A500 Index rose by 0.2%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.1%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.7% [1][3] Group 2 - The CSI 300 Index consists of 300 stocks from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering 11 primary industry sectors, with a rolling P/E ratio of 14.1 times [3] - The CSI A500 Index is made up of 500 securities with good liquidity, covering 89 out of 93 tertiary industry sectors, and has a rolling P/E ratio of 17.2 times [3] - The technology sector shows significant leadership characteristics, with semiconductors accounting for over 65% of the index, alongside medical devices, software development, and photovoltaic equipment industries, which together account for nearly 80% [6]

Market Overview - On February 6, A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with the ChiNext index dropping nearly 2% at one point. Over 3,800 stocks in the market rose [1] - The total trading volume reached 1.39 trillion yuan, with a predicted volume of 2.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of 56.4 billion yuan [2] Sector Performance - The traditional Chinese medicine sector saw significant gains, with Hansoh Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit, and Zhen Dong Pharmaceutical and Bioventure rising over 10%. This follows the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement of a five-year plan for high-quality development in the Chinese medicine industry [2] - The chemical sector also performed well, with stocks like Jangtian Chemical and Wanrun New Energy hitting the daily limit, and several others rising over 10% [3] Notable Stocks - Jiangtian Chemical: Current price 37.62 yuan, trading volume 24.08 million, up 14.52%, with a 60-day increase of 29.59% and a year-to-date increase of 61.39% [4] - Wanrun New Energy: Current price 87.80 yuan, trading volume 599,000, up 11.92%, with a year-to-date increase of 16.45% [4] - Shanshan Co.: Current price 14.37 yuan, trading volume 170 million, up 10.03%, with a year-to-date increase of 6.37% [4] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector faced declines, particularly in the liquor and tourism industries, with Huangtai Liquor hitting the daily limit down and Guizhou Moutai falling over 2.6% [5] Economic Outlook - Analysts predict that A-shares may reach new highs this year, with expectations of a "tight then loose" monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, a weaker dollar, and a balanced external and internal demand [6][7] Hong Kong Market - On the same day, Hong Kong's three major indices opened significantly lower, with the Hang Seng Index dropping over 1.2%. Major tech stocks like Alibaba and JD Health fell over 3% [8][9] Company Highlights - NIO saw a counter-trend increase of over 6%, with the company expecting an adjusted operating profit of approximately 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan for Q4, marking its first quarterly adjusted operating profit [10]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery sector has experienced significant attention due to rising lithium carbonate prices, leading to a surge in market capitalization for some companies. Kunlun New Energy, a leading supplier of lithium battery electrolyte, has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to capitalize on the current market conditions [1]. Company Overview - Kunlun New Energy is a global leader in lithium battery electrolyte, ranking third in the global market with a 5.1% market share as of the first three quarters of 2025, according to Frost & Sullivan [1]. - The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of lithium battery electrolytes and advanced battery materials, offering a comprehensive product portfolio that includes electrolytes for power batteries, energy storage systems, consumer electronics, and emerging applications [1]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is expected to fluctuate, with projected declines of 35.3% in 2024 and a recovery of 38.71% in the first three quarters of 2025. Shareholder net profits are forecasted to be losses of 0.05 billion and 0.02 billion respectively [1]. - As of November 2025, the company holds cash and cash equivalents of 1.07 billion [1]. Industry Growth - The global lithium battery shipment volume is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48% from 2020 to 2024, with expectations to exceed 5200 GWh by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 22.5% [1]. - The global electrolyte market is expected to reach 559.7 million tons by 2030, with a CAGR of 19.7%, driven primarily by demand for power and energy storage battery electrolytes, which are projected to grow at CAGRs of 46.7% and 83.2% respectively [2]. Market Position - China dominates the global lithium battery market, accounting for 75.7% of global shipments in 2024, and holds an 88% market share in the electrolyte sector [4]. - The top five electrolyte suppliers hold a combined market share of 60.8%, with Kunlun New Energy at 5.1%, indicating a relatively small market position and limited cost transfer capabilities [5]. Product and Customer Base - Kunlun New Energy's product offerings include various types of electrolytes, with over 90% of revenue coming from power and energy storage battery electrolytes [6]. - The company has a high customer concentration, with the top five customers contributing over 70% of revenue in recent years [8]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company has established strategic production bases in multiple locations, with a total production capacity of 180,000 tons per year as of January 2026, and plans to expand capacity to over 500,000 tons [9]. - Kunlun New Energy is also pursuing international expansion, including plans to build production facilities in Hungary to enhance local responsiveness and delivery capabilities [9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from stable demand growth in the downstream market, particularly in energy storage applications driven by the AI era's power needs [10]. - Despite the potential for improved profitability due to price adjustments in the supply chain, the cyclical nature of the lithium sector introduces uncertainty regarding investor sentiment [10].

Group 1 - The new energy sector is showing localized activity, with lithium battery electrolyte and power battery concepts leading in gains [1] - As of the midday close, the China Securities Shanghai Carbon Neutrality Index increased by 0.9%, the China Securities New Energy Index rose by 0.6%, the National Securities New Energy Battery Index went up by 0.1%, while the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index decreased by 0.4% [1][5] Group 2 - The index focuses on the energy storage sector, consisting of 50 companies involved in battery manufacturing, energy storage battery inverters, energy storage battery system integration, and battery temperature control and fire protection, which are expected to benefit from future energy development opportunities [3] - The photovoltaic ETF managed by E Fund tracks the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index, which represents a strong future energy source and includes 50 representative companies across the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the industry chain [5][6]

Group 1 - The lithium battery electrolyte index experienced a strong surge, increasing by over 4% [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Tianji Co. saw a significant rise of 8%, while Haike New Energy increased by 5% [1] - Other companies such as Duofluorid, Dangseng Technology, and Jiangsu Guotai also reported gains exceeding 4% [1]