港股晨报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 国投证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国投证券国际视点：圣诞行情临近，市场明显反弹 港股市场上周五回暖，三大指数集体收涨。其中，恒生指数升 0.75%，国企指 数升 0.68%，恒生科技指数升 1%，多个板块呈现普涨格局。大市成交金额回升 至2,212亿元，主板总卖空金额约452亿元，占可卖空股票总成交金额约22.19%。 南向资金流（北水）方面，周五净流入约 34 亿元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中， 北水净买入最多的是腾讯控股 700.HK、阿里巴巴 9988.HK、长飞光纤光缆 6869.HK；净卖出最多的是中国移动 941.HK、地平线机器人－Ｗ9660.HK、中芯 国际 981.HK。 分板块来看，烟草概念股表现突出。消息面上，国务院办公厅近日印发《关于 全链条打击涉烟违法活动的意见》，明确要求全方位加强电子烟监管，严打非 法生产与出口回流等乱象。此举将有效净化市场环境，为合规企业带来更大的 发展空间与机遇，提振了板块信心，中烟香港 6055.HK 与思摩尔国际 6969.HK 领涨。消费板块整体做好，汽车股亦表现亮眼，小鹏 9868.HK、零跑 9 ...

Market Performance - Last week, Hong Kong stocks showed a rebound, with the Hang Seng Index, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.8%, 0.7%, and 1.1% respectively[1] - Large insurance and domestic bank stocks performed steadily in the latter half of the week, supporting the market's recovery[1] - The pharmaceutical sector saw a rebound after the U.S. Senate passed the revised 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, benefiting companies like WuXi Biologics and WuXi AppTec[1] Sector Highlights - The automotive sector rebounded significantly, with XPeng Motors rising by 7.6% after receiving an L3 autonomous driving road test license in Guangzhou[4] - The healthcare sector's Hang Seng Medical Care Index fell by 1.8% overall but rose by 1.7% on Friday, indicating a potential recovery[5] - The renewable energy and utilities sectors experienced a general decline, although the photovoltaic sector saw slight gains due to expected policy support[6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December was reported at 52.9, below Bloomberg's forecast of 53.5 but above the previous value of 51.0[3] Investment Opportunities - The upcoming IPO of Insilico Medicine, a prominent AI-driven drug discovery company, is noteworthy due to its rapid revenue growth and strong backing from reputable investors[5] - The recent policy on e-cigarette regulation is expected to create new opportunities for compliance-driven growth in the domestic market[1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Comprehensive Crackdown on Tobacco-related Illegal Activities" by the State Council aims to strengthen regulatory enforcement against tobacco counterfeiting, smuggling, and illegal sales, particularly focusing on the electronic cigarette sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Measures - The "Opinions" emphasize a comprehensive crackdown on the smuggling of tobacco products, including electronic cigarettes, by enhancing international law enforcement cooperation and targeting the sources of counterfeit tobacco abroad [1][2]. - There will be strict implementation of tobacco-related laws in special areas such as customs supervision zones and bonded areas, prohibiting the sale of tobacco products without proper licenses [2]. - The document outlines a full-chain regulatory system for tobacco production and sales, including the management of raw materials and machinery used in tobacco production [2][5]. Group 2: Focus on Electronic Cigarettes - The regulation of electronic cigarettes is highlighted, with a focus on combating illegal production, wholesale, transportation, and sales, as well as addressing issues related to non-nicotine electronic cigarettes [2][3]. - The market for electronic cigarettes is currently facing significant challenges from counterfeit products, many of which are imported from overseas, leading to a call for stricter regulatory measures [3][4]. Group 3: Legal Framework - The "Opinions" align with existing criminal laws, specifically targeting smuggling and the production and sale of counterfeit products, which are core offenses under the Criminal Law [5][6]. - The document stresses the need to sever the supply chain for counterfeit tobacco materials and machinery, reinforcing the legal framework for tackling tobacco-related crimes [5][6]. - Illegal operations, including unlicensed sales and the use of the internet for illegal tobacco sales, are identified as serious offenses that disrupt market order and violate the tobacco monopoly system [6].

Core Viewpoint - The global e-cigarette industry is entering a new product life cycle and regulatory enforcement period, with major brands actively engaging in market cultivation, leading to accelerated industry expansion. Companies with product technology and supply chain competitiveness are recommended for investment [1]. Regulatory Environment - On December 18, 2025, the State Council issued an opinion on cracking down on illegal tobacco activities, emphasizing strict regulation of e-cigarettes. Key measures include comprehensive strengthening of e-cigarette regulation, severe penalties for illegal production, wholesale, transportation, and sales, as well as enhanced efforts against e-cigarettes containing addictive substances [1]. - The policy aims to combat non-compliant e-cigarette exports from the source, accelerating the clearance of excess industry capacity [1]. Market Impact - The leading compliant manufacturer, Smoore International, is expected to benefit from the tightening of industry regulations. The company's vaping business is anticipated to improve due to changes in the regulatory environment in the U.S. and Europe, with further upward adjustments expected by 2026 [1]. - British American Tobacco forecasts a single-digit decline in its vaping business in the second half of 2025, a significant improvement compared to a 13% decline in the first half of 2025, primarily due to strengthened enforcement at federal and state levels in the U.S. [2]. - Sales of the Vuse brand in states implementing e-cigarette product listings increased by 7% [2]. Export Data - According to Chinese customs, the export value of e-cigarettes to the U.S. from May to July 2025 saw significant year-on-year declines of 39%, 67%, and 14% respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the electronic cigarette industry, indicating a potential increase in value relative to the market index [4]. Core Insights - The electronic cigarette industry is entering a new product life and regulatory enforcement cycle, with major brands actively engaging in market cultivation, leading to accelerated industry expansion [2][4]. - The Chinese government has issued strict regulations to combat illegal activities related to electronic cigarettes, which is expected to expedite the exit of non-compliant production capacity from the market [4]. - The report highlights that leading compliant manufacturers, such as Smoore International, are likely to benefit from the tightening regulations [4]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The State Council has emphasized comprehensive regulation of electronic cigarettes, including strict measures against illegal production, wholesale, transportation, and sales [4]. - The focus is on international cooperation to tackle non-compliant electronic cigarette exports, which will help clear out the industry [4]. Market Dynamics - Smoore International is expected to see improvements in its aerosol business due to changes in regulatory environments in the US and Europe, with a potential recovery in 2026 [4]. - British American Tobacco anticipates a single-digit decline in its aerosol business in the second half of 2025, a significant improvement compared to a 13% decline in the first half of 2025 [4]. Financial Projections - Smoore International's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.17 RMB for 2025, increasing to 0.41 RMB by 2027, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 67 in 2025 to 28 in 2027 [5]. - British American Tobacco's EPS is forecasted to rise from 2.83 GBP in 2025 to 3.09 GBP in 2027, maintaining a stable PE ratio of 15 [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of electronic cigarette stocks, particularly China Tobacco Hong Kong and Smoore International, following the release of a government opinion on strengthening electronic cigarette regulation [1] - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055) saw a rise of 6.13%, reaching HKD 34.3, while Smoore International (06969) increased by 4.66%, reaching HKD 12.35 [1] - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates a continued optimistic outlook for the tobacco sector, particularly for Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong [1] Group 2 - Smoore International's HNB (Heat Not Burn) business is gradually showing revenue contributions, with optimistic data from BAT exchanges [1] - The upcoming launch of new products in multiple European countries in Q4, along with the expected increase in repeat purchases of cartridges from existing customers, is anticipated to boost revenue and gross margins [1] - The vaporization main business remains relatively stable, with regulatory clean-up in Europe leading to market share concentration, while U.S. regulations are tightening [1] Group 3 - China Tobacco Hong Kong demonstrates robust internal growth drivers, benefiting from a strong tobacco monopoly system with significant barriers to entry and a structured order plan [1] - The company has substantial quality assets outside its core operations and plays a crucial role in supporting China Tobacco's global expansion strategy, indicating potential for external growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The electronic cigarette sector is experiencing significant stock price increases, driven by new regulatory measures aimed at strengthening oversight and combating illegal activities in the industry [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055) saw a stock price increase of 6.13%, reaching HKD 34.3 [1] - Smoore International (06969) experienced a rise of 4.66%, with its stock priced at HKD 12.35 [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The State Council issued an opinion on comprehensively cracking down on illegal activities related to tobacco, which includes stringent regulations on electronic cigarettes [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - According to a report from China Merchants Securities, the tobacco sector remains optimistic for Hong Kong-listed companies Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong [1] - Smoore International's HNB (Heat Not Burn) business is gradually showing revenue contributions, with optimistic data from BAT exchanges [1] - The upcoming launch of new products in multiple European markets in Q4 is expected to enhance revenue and gross margins, alongside stable performance in the vaping sector [1] - China Tobacco Hong Kong benefits from a robust internal growth dynamic, supported by a strong monopoly system and a solid order pipeline, while also having significant potential for overseas expansion [1]

Capital Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is advancing the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the capital market, focusing on enhancing the market's inclusivity and attractiveness to quality enterprises in new production sectors [2] - Morgan Stanley's China equity strategy head forecasts that the MSCI China Index, CSI 300 Index, and MSCI Hong Kong Index will reach target levels of 100 points, 5200 points, and 16000 points respectively, indicating potential double-digit growth [2] - Hong Kong's capital market is experiencing a surge in IPOs, with several companies including Yingxi Intelligent, Wuyi Vision, and others launching public offerings, set to list on December 30 [2] Industry Highlights - The State Council has issued guidelines to strengthen regulation of the e-cigarette industry, aiming to combat illegal production and sales of products similar to tobacco [4] - Trump Media Technology Group is set to merge with nuclear fusion company TAE in an all-stock transaction, leading to a significant rise in Trump Media's stock [4] Company Updates - ByteDance's AI model, Doubao, has achieved a daily usage rate exceeding 50 trillion calls, while Microsoft is reportedly collaborating with Kimi to automate Office products in response to local competition [6] - Haidilao has announced a shareholder return plan, committing to a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 80% over the next three years [6] - Shandong High-Speed plans to recognize a long-term investment impairment of approximately 690 million yuan related to Dongxing Securities, which is expected to reduce the company's total profit for 2025 by the same amount [6] - Guoao Technology's former actual controller has been sentenced to six years in prison for manipulating the securities market [8]

Group 1 - Xuan Bamboo Bio-B (02575) surged over 22.09% after announcing that its innovative drug Xuan Yue Ning was included in the national basic medical insurance drug list [1] - Zhaoyan New Drug (06127) rose over 13.4% as the price of crab-eating macaques exceeded 100,000 yuan, with reports indicating a supply shortage and prices reaching 120,000 to 130,000 yuan [1] - Domestic property stocks saw a broad increase, with Rongxin China (03301) up 5.26%, Shimao Group (00813) up 1.45%, and others, following the Central Economic Work Conference that outlined key tasks for the economy next year [1] Group 2 - Haidilao (06862) increased over 2.5% as it announced the internal testing phase for its first large-scale hot pot restaurant in Guangzhou [1] - Sutech Juchuang (02498) rose over 6.26% ahead of the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) scheduled for January 6-9, 2026, in Las Vegas [1] - Consumer concept stocks mostly advanced, with notable increases in Jiumaojiu (09922) by 3.61% and others, following the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizing domestic demand [2] Group 3 - Yituo Co., Ltd. (00038) surged over 8%, with a cumulative increase of over 20% in three trading days, as Goldman Sachs highlighted its favorable position in China's agricultural modernization [2] - Jin Jie Holdings (03918) fell nearly 2% amid ongoing border conflicts between Cambodia and Thailand, prompting safety advisories for Chinese citizens [2] - Smoore International (06969) dropped nearly 3% after British American Tobacco (BTI.US) provided a weak earnings outlook due to regulatory pressures in the U.S. e-cigarette market [2] Group 4 - Zijin Mining (02899) rose over 3% following remarks at the 2025 China International Gold Market Annual Conference about new opportunities for the gold industry in the Hainan Free Trade Port [3][4] - Lumexa Imaging (LMRI.US) debuted on the U.S. stock market with an opening increase of over 1.6%, providing outpatient imaging services across 13 states [5] - Rare earth stocks strengthened, with Perpetua Resources (PPTA.US) up 13.42% after announcing a partnership to enhance domestic mineral processing capabilities [5] Group 5 - Bitcoin-related stocks showed mixed results as Bitcoin fell below 90,000 yuan, with Coinbase (COIN.US) down 2.21% and others experiencing slight changes [6] - Space-related stocks surged, with Planet Labs PBC (PL.US) up 35.01% after reporting a 33% year-over-year revenue increase [7] - Disney (DIS.US) saw a 2.42% increase after announcing a $1 billion investment in OpenAI, allowing the use of its IP for AI-generated video content [7]

Core Viewpoint - Smoore International (06969) has seen a decline of over 4%, currently trading at HKD 11.81, with a transaction volume of HKD 64.45 million. This drop is influenced by the performance guidance from its major client, British American Tobacco (BTI.US), which indicates challenges in the U.S. e-cigarette market due to regulatory pressures and intense competition [1] Group 1: Company Performance - British American Tobacco has revised its 2026 performance guidance, projecting revenue growth at the lower end of its mid-term target range of 3%-5% due to regulatory pressures in the U.S. e-cigarette market [1] - The adjusted operating profit growth for British American Tobacco is expected to be between 4%-6% for the same period [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - A new tax policy in the UK will come into effect, imposing an additional tax of 22 pence per milliliter on e-liquids starting October 1, 2026, which will be added on top of the existing 20% value-added tax [1] - Tianfeng Securities indicates that the upcoming UK e-cigarette tax may create new opportunities for 2ml cartridge systems and nicotine pouches [1]