Core Viewpoint - The price of gasoline and diesel in Harbin has been increased as per the notice from the National Development and Reform Commission, effective from 11th of the month [1] Price Adjustments - The price of 92 gasoline has been raised from 8994 yuan/ton to 9127 yuan/ton, an increase of 133 yuan/ton, resulting in a retail price increase from 6.81 yuan/liter to 6.96 yuan/liter, up by 0.15 yuan [1] - The price of 95 gasoline has been increased by 0.14 yuan/liter, now priced at 7.43 yuan/liter [1] - The price of 98 gasoline has been raised by 0.17 yuan/liter, now at 8.43 yuan/liter [1] - The price of 0 diesel has been increased by 0.14 yuan/liter, now priced at 6.43 yuan/liter [1] - The price of -35 diesel has been raised by 0.13 yuan/liter, now at 7.38 yuan/liter [1]

Price Adjustment - The domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel will be increased by 125 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton respectively, effective from 24:00 on November 10 [1][3] - This marks the seventh increase in domestic retail prices for refined oil this year [3] Cost Impact - For private car owners, filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost an additional 5 yuan [3] - For a vehicle running 2000 kilometers per month with an average fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will increase by approximately 7 yuan before the next price adjustment [3] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers will see an increase of about 177 yuan in fuel costs [3] Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the market is currently experiencing a "weak gasoline and strong diesel" trend, with gasoline prices declining due to weak terminal demand and lack of holiday boosts [4] - Diesel consumption is supported by stable weather and ongoing operations in outdoor industries, leading to increased procurement and overall price support for diesel [4] - Future market focus will be on the oil inventory situation post the U.S. oil demand off-season, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in international oil prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel prices in China will increase for the seventh time this year, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively, effective from November 10, 2023 [1] Group 1: International Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have shown a downward trend overall, despite some support from geopolitical factors and OPEC's decision to halt production increases in the first quarter of next year [2] - The average Brent crude oil price is currently fluctuating between 63 to 65 USD per barrel, indicating a slight increase compared to the previous pricing cycle [1][2] - The global oil market is characterized by an oversupply, but potential changes in geopolitical risks and seasonal demand could influence future price movements [2] Group 2: Domestic Market Analysis - The domestic fuel market is experiencing a divergence in demand, with gasoline prices declining due to weak terminal demand, while diesel prices are supported by stable weather and ongoing industrial activities [2] - Analysts predict that the new pricing cycle may start with a negative change rate based on current oil prices, suggesting continued volatility in the market [3]

| 实行一省一价的地 | | --- | | 北京市 | | 天津市 | | 河北省 | | 山西省 | | 辽宁省 | | 吉林省 | | 黑龙江省 | | ト海市 | 经济观察网据国家发展改革委网站消息，近期国际市场油价波动运行，根据11月10日的前10个工作日平均价格与10月27日的前10个工作日平均价格对比情 况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自11月10日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格(标准品)每吨分别上涨125元和120元。调整后，各省(区、市)和中心城市汽、柴油最 高零售价格见附表。 | 成都市 | | --- | | 贵阳市 | | 昆明市 | | 西安市 | | 西宁市 | | 1、表中价格包含辩 注: | | 2、表中汽油和柴浑 | | 格。 | | 3、汽、柴油第六阶 | | 4、供国家储备、新 | | 7880 元和 6885 元; 其它 | | ו ו ו להלך ה | | --- | | 江苏省 | | 浙江省 | | 安徽省 | | 福建省 | | 江西省 | | 山东省 | | 湖北省 | | 湖南省 | | 河南省 | | 海南省 | | 重庆市 | | 广东省 | | 广西壮族自 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming round of domestic refined oil price adjustments is expected to result in the seventh price increase of the year, leading to a slight increase in consumer fuel costs [1][2]. Price Adjustment Summary - The new price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on November 10, with analysts predicting an increase in retail prices for gasoline and diesel by approximately 135 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.11 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1]. - As of November 6, the reference crude oil price change rate was recorded at 3.12%, indicating a strong likelihood of price increases in the upcoming adjustment [1]. - Since the beginning of the year, there have been 21 rounds of price adjustments, resulting in a net decrease of 745 yuan per ton for gasoline and 715 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the end of last year [2]. Market Analysis - Analysts from various firms indicate that the current oil prices are in a narrow fluctuation range, with signs of potential weakening. The market is expected to face oversupply pressure in the near term [4]. - Supply-side factors include OPEC+'s decision to pause production increases in the first quarter of next year, while the overall atmosphere of increased production is expected to persist until the end of December this year [4]. - On the demand side, the seasonal decrease in crude oil demand due to ongoing maintenance at U.S. refineries and a notable increase in U.S. crude oil inventories contribute to a sluggish global demand recovery [4][5].

智通财经APP获悉，石油股午后涨幅扩大，截至发稿，中海油(00883)涨3.68%，报21.96港元；中石油 (00857)涨2.94%，报8.76港元；中石化(00386)涨2.1%，报4.38港元。 光大证券指出，面对新一轮油价波动周期，"三桶油"深化增储上产，加强成本管控，以自身发展的确定 性应对外部环境的不确定性，在油价下行期的业绩韧性凸显。"三桶油"将继续加强增储上产，中国石 油、中国石化、中国海油25年油气当量产量计划分别增长1.6%、1.5%、5.9%；加快中下游炼化业务转 型，炼油板块推进低成本"油转化"、高价值"油转特"，销售板块积极向"油气氢电服"综合能源服务商转 型，化工业务稳步提升高附加值产品比例。"三桶油"有望实现穿越油价周期的长期成长，长期投资价值 凸显。 消息面上，11月2日，OPEC+主产八国宣布12月将进一步增产13.7万桶/日，同时由于季节性因素暂停 2026年1至3月的增产。此外，美国对俄两大石油生产商实施制裁后。民生证券指出，由于OPEC+于26 年一季度暂停增产超市场预期，叠加美国对俄罗斯的制裁影响，当前市场悲观情绪好转，但对需求较 弱、供应过剩的情绪仍在，预计油价短 ...

相关事件 中国石油化工股份(00386.HK)11月7日耗资1356.7万港元回购317万股 中国石油化工股份(00386.HK)11月 6日耗资1010.66万港元回购239.8万股 中国海洋石油(00883.HK)拟开展套期保值业务 中国海洋石油 (00883.HK)：前三季度归母净利润1019.7亿元 同比下降12.6% 港股异动丨三桶油继续上涨 中国石油股份 涨超3% 创2008年4月以来新高 中国石油股份(00857.HK)：周松辞任监事及监事会主席职务 港股三桶油持续上涨行情，其中，中国石油股份涨超2%续刷阶段新高，并且录得7连涨行情，中国海洋 石油涨1.13%，中国石油化工涨约1%。 消息上，国内成品油新一轮调价窗口将于11月10日24时开启。 综合机构观点，本次调价或将出现年内第七次上调。按目前幅度计算，本轮成品油零售限价上调确认 后，私家车单次加满一箱50升的92#汽油后将多花5.5元。 国际油价方面，亚洲早盘，油价在区间波动中 微涨。有预测认为，受非欧佩克国家强劲的供应增长和温和的需求预期推动，2025-2026年库存将大幅 增加。另一方面，持续的供应干扰风险、欧佩克+参差不齐的履约情况以 ...

港股三桶油持续上涨行情，其中，中国石油股份涨超2%续刷阶段新高，并且录得7连涨行情，中国海洋 石油涨1.13%，中国石油化工涨约1%。 ...

| 永安期货 | | --- | | ONGAN FUTURES | 燃料油早报 新 加 坡 燃 料 油 现 货 | 日期 | FOB 380cst | FOB VLSFO | 380基差 | 高硫内外价差 | 低硫内外价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/03 | - | 456.00 | -3.75 | 8.0 | 10.2 | | 2025/11/04 | 369.12 | 448.83 | -6.00 | 7.9 | 9.4 | | 2025/11/05 | 365.13 | 447.76 | -6.00 | 7.8 | 11.0 | | 2025/11/06 | - | 445.59 | -6.05 | 6.0 | 8.6 | | 2025/11/07 | 364.45 | 449.61 | -6.00 | 3.5 | 7.7 | | 变化 | - | 4.02 | 0.05 | -2.5 | -0.9 | | 国 内 F U | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oil giants, referred to as the "Three Oil Companies" (China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC), are facing profit pressures due to fluctuating international oil prices, but they are responding to transformation and change in different ways [1][4]. Group 1: International Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have generally declined, with Brent crude oil averaging $70.93 per barrel, down 14.3% year-on-year, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil down 14.1% [3]. - The drop in oil prices has significantly impacted corporate profits, akin to an invisible constraint on their earnings [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance of the "Three Oil Companies" - China National Petroleum Corporation reported a profit of 126.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.9% [4]. - Sinopec's profit was 29.98 billion yuan, marking the most significant decline among the three [4]. - CNOOC's performance was relatively stable, with a profit of 101.97 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Net Profit Margin Differences - CNOOC boasts a net profit margin of 32.63%, significantly higher than China National Petroleum's 5.82% and Sinopec's 1.42% [6]. - The differences in profit margins are attributed to each company's unique business structure, which influences their risk resilience [6]. Group 4: Business Models and Challenges - CNOOC focuses on upstream exploration and production, with oil and gas sales accounting for over 80% of its total revenue, allowing it to maintain high profit margins despite price fluctuations [8]. - In contrast, China National Petroleum and Sinopec have a full industry chain layout, facing challenges from refining profitability and chemical sector pressures due to market demand and oversupply [8]. - Sinopec's chemical sector reported a loss of 7.43 billion yuan in the first three quarters, exceeding last year's losses, while China National Petroleum's chemical profits were nearly halved [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategies - Despite challenges, Sinopec remains optimistic about the chemical industry's recovery, anticipating market balance as the economy stabilizes and outdated capacities are eliminated [9]. - Both China National Petroleum and Sinopec are pursuing transformations towards higher-end refining and chemical production, which will require time and investment [9]. - The sales of refined oil products have also declined, with China National Petroleum's gasoline sales down 3.1% and Sinopec's domestic refined oil sales down 3.6% year-on-year, influenced by the rise of electric vehicles [9]. - CNOOC is utilizing futures and derivatives trading for hedging to stabilize earnings and mitigate risks from price volatility [10]. Group 6: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The performance of the "Three Oil Companies" reflects the broader challenges and opportunities facing the oil industry amid energy transition [11]. - Traditional oil companies must actively seek new growth points to remain competitive in a rapidly changing market [11].