Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In January 2026, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.3%, indicating a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decline in economic sentiment [1] - The production index stood at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, suggesting a decrease in market demand [2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was at 52.0%, remaining above 52.0% for two consecutive months, indicating a positive development trend in related industries [2] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.3%, indicating sustained expansion and a strong supporting role in the manufacturing sector [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was reported at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in overall non-manufacturing sentiment [4] - The financial sector's business activity index rose above 65%, showing a significant increase compared to the same period last year, providing a favorable financing environment for growth [4] - The service sector's business activity expectation index rose to over 57%, indicating optimism among enterprises regarding the impact of the upcoming Spring Festival on service sector demand [4][5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the market demand issue is gradually easing, with a decrease in the proportion of manufacturing enterprises reporting insufficient demand, down 9.4 percentage points to 54.9% [2] - The manufacturing production and operational activity expectation index was at 52.6%, indicating confidence in future manufacturing activities [3] - Post-Spring Festival, it is anticipated that investment-related demand will be released, potentially boosting the construction sector's sentiment [5]

企业预期保持乐观 "1月份，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，加之市场有效需求仍显不足，制造业景气水平较上月下 降。"国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧说。 从供需两端看，生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张；新订单指数为49.2%，市场需 求有所回落。 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会1月31日发布数据显示，2026年1月份，制造业采购 经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.3%、49.4%和49.8%，比上月 下降0.8个、0.8个和0.9个百分点，经济景气水平有所回落。 1月份，制造业生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制 茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数连续两个月位于56.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对近期行业发展信 心较强。 文韬认为，1月份，受季节性因素和外部因素影响，制造业运行有所波动，但市场需求有趋稳迹象，生 产活动保持扩张，市场价格联动上升，产业结构继续优化，制造业后市回稳运行具备基础。预计2月 份，受春节假期影响，制造业运行或继续有所放缓。随着春节过后经济社会回归正常运行，制造业将继 续 ...

1月30日，记者从南京市统计局获悉，根据地区生产总值统一核算结果，2025年全市地区生产总值 19428.78 亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.2%。分产业看，第一产业增加值338.50 亿元，同比增长 3.4%；第二产业增加值5873.07 亿元，增长3.7%；第三产业增加值13217.21 亿元，增长6.0%。 农业生产形势稳定粮食产量实现增长 2025年，全市农林牧渔业增加值可比增长3.8%。粮食产量稳步增长。全年粮食播种面积214.70万亩，增 长0.6%；总产量100.78万吨，增长0.5%。畜牧业产能提升。全年生猪出栏37.39万头，增长5.0%；家禽 出栏1741.20万只，增长10.1%。 2025年，全市社会消费品零售总额8135.85亿元，同比增长3.5%。促消费政策带动明显。限额以上单位 家用电器和音像器材类商品零售额增长9.8%，其中智能家用电器和音像器材增长78.2%；汽车类商品零 售额增长3.4%，高于全国平均水平4.9个百分点，其中新能源汽车增长33.1%。网上零售蓬勃发展。限额 以上单位实物商品网上零售额增长17.7%，占限上社零比重达31.1%，占比较上年提升3.9个百分点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in January PMI is attributed to the early return of workers for the Spring Festival and weak domestic demand, with manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.3% from 50.1% and non-manufacturing PMI falling to 49.4% from 50.2% [1][6][7] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell below the growth threshold, decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, influenced by statistical factors and the early return of workers for the Spring Festival [1][7] - The production index decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, while the new orders index fell by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [4][38] - The purchasing index dropped significantly by 2.4 percentage points to 48.7%, reflecting a weaker supply side due to the early return of workers [2][16] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive sectors such as consumer goods and high-energy industries experienced a more pronounced decline in PMI, with consumer goods PMI down 2.1 percentage points to 48.3% and high-energy PMI down 1 percentage point to 47.9% [2][22] - In contrast, capital-intensive sectors like high-tech and equipment manufacturing saw smaller declines, with PMIs of 52% and 50.1%, respectively, remaining above the growth threshold [2][22] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI also showed a decline, dropping by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, primarily due to a significant decrease in the construction sector, which fell by 4 percentage points to 48.8% [4][43] - The service sector PMI remained relatively resilient, only decreasing by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5%, with certain areas like railway transport showing strong performance [3][25] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The early Spring Festival may distort PMI readings for January and February, but the overall economic recovery trend is expected to continue, supported by consumer demand and service sector policies [3][32] - Despite short-term weaknesses in manufacturing and construction, the average PMI over the next two months is anticipated to reflect ongoing economic recovery [3][32]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in January PMI is primarily attributed to the early return of workers for the 2026 Spring Festival and weak domestic demand, with manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.3% from 50.1% and non-manufacturing PMI falling to 49.4% from 50.2% [2][8][61] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell below the neutral line, decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, influenced by statistical factors and the early return of workers [2][8][61] - The manufacturing production index declined by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, while the new orders index decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2% [5][41] - The purchasing index for manufacturing dropped significantly by 2.4 percentage points to 48.7%, indicating a notable contraction in supply [3][15][62] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive sectors such as consumer goods and high-energy industries experienced a more pronounced decline in PMI, with consumer goods PMI falling by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3% and high-energy PMI down by 1 percentage point to 47.9% [3][22][62] - In contrast, capital-intensive sectors like high-tech and equipment manufacturing saw smaller declines, with PMIs of 52% and 50.1%, respectively [3][22][62] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI showed asymmetric characteristics, with the construction PMI dropping to 48.8%, a decline of 4 percentage points, while the service sector PMI only slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5% [4][25][62] - The construction sector's decline is more significant than historical averages, indicating a substantial impact from the early return of workers [4][25][62] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The early Spring Festival may disrupt PMI readings for January and February, but the overall economic outlook remains positive, with expectations of recovery in the coming months [4][34][63] - Recent trends in service consumption and travel during the Spring Festival are expected to support service sector growth, highlighting the importance of monitoring consumer demand [4][34][63]

2026年1月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，1月份制造业采购 经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 展望未来，付一夫认为，制造业PMI走势无须过度担忧：短期看，春节后企业集中复工复产，叠加逆周 期调节政策有望加码，2月PMI大概率稳中有升；中期看，政策对制造业的支持力度持续，高技术与装 备制造业的扩张韧性将带动整体复苏，全年PMI预计稳定在荣枯线上方，呈现短期修复、中期稳升态 势。 苏商银行特约研究员付一夫在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时分析称："1月制造业PMI有所回落，主要 源于季节性扰动与需求不足叠加的短期现象。春节临近导致企业提前停工、生产节奏放缓，叠加建筑业 淡季间接拖累需求，构成季节性主导因素；而内外需偏弱则是核心基本面制约。" 东方金诚统计数据显示，剔除2023年极端值后，过去十年中，1月制造业PMI指数呈现"八降二升"，平 均下行0.3个百分点。国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读称，1月份部分制造业行业进入 传统淡季，加之市场有效需求仍显不足，制造业景气水平较上月有所下降。 中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in January PMI is primarily attributed to the early return of workers for the 2026 Spring Festival and weak domestic demand, with manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.3% from 50.1% and non-manufacturing PMI falling to 49.4% from 50.2% [2][7][61] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell below the neutral line, decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, influenced by statistical factors and the early return of workers [2][8][61] - The manufacturing production index declined by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, while the new orders index decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2% [5][41][64] - The purchasing index for manufacturing dropped significantly by 2.4 percentage points to 48.7%, indicating a notable contraction in supply [3][15][62] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive sectors such as consumer goods and high-energy industries experienced a more pronounced decline in PMI, with consumer goods PMI falling by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3% and high-energy PMI down by 1 percentage point to 47.9% [3][22][62] - In contrast, capital-intensive sectors like high-tech and equipment manufacturing saw smaller declines, with PMIs of 52% and 50.1%, respectively [3][22][62] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing sector showed asymmetric effects from the early return of workers, with the construction PMI dropping to 48.8%, a decline of 4 percentage points, while the service sector PMI only slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5% [4][25][62] - The construction sector's decline is more significant than the average historical drop of 1.4 percentage points for January since 2017 [4][25][62] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The early Spring Festival may disrupt PMI readings for January and February, but the overall economic recovery trend is expected to continue, supported by travel and consumption during the holiday [4][34][63] - Recent policies aimed at boosting service consumption are anticipated to support the service sector's recovery, with a focus on changes in consumer demand [4][34][63]

今日开幕的黑龙江省第十四届人民代表大会第四次会议上，扩内需、促消费再次成为政府工作报告里的 重点工作，2026年，黑龙江省将举办"购在龙江"等促消费活动超2000场，发放政府消费券8亿元以上。 2025年，黑龙江省开展提振消费专项行动，扩围实施消费品以旧换新，组织系列促消费活动，拉动消费 728.4亿元。激发 首发经济、直播电商等有潜能消费，新设国际国内知名 首店15家，网上零售额同比增 长14.7%。投资结构持续优化，高技术制造业投资同比增长11.5%，民间投资占比提高2.2个百分点。 ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心企业景气处处长 霍丽慧：从行业来看，农副食品加工、铁路、船舶、航空航天设备等行业的生产指数和新订单指数都高于 56%，相关行业产需释放较快。 从非制造业情况看，2026年1月份中国非制造业商务活动指数为49.4%。 中国物流与采购联合会副会长 何辉：服务业总体还是保持比较平稳的，金融业保持在65%以上的较高景气水平。 0:00 国家统计局、中国物流与采购联合会今天（31日）发布2026年1月份中国采购经理指数。数据显示，1月我国制造业市场需求有所收紧，但企业生产保持扩张 态势，产业结构继续优化；服务业运行态势相对稳定，企业预期持续向好。 2026年1月份中国制造业采购经理指数为49.3%。1月份装备制造业采购经理指数为50.1%，高技术制造业采购经理指数为52%，装备制造业和高技术制造业稳 中向好发展，制造业产业结构持续优化。 金融业支持实体经济力度保持强劲、新动能发展态势稳健、部分消费相关服务业表现良好成为支撑服务业稳定的主要因素。 1月份，在元旦假期消费带动下，部分消费相关行业表现良好。铁路运输业商务活动指数保持在53%以上的较高水平，景区服务业商务活动指数较上月上 升，升至51% ...

市场需求趋稳制造业新动能延续扩张 受访专家普遍认为，季节性因素、出口环境变化等成为拖累因素。但与此同时，生产继续保持扩张，金 融市场活跃度显著提升。后续，经济回稳运行具备良好基础，要持续引导释放相关需求，推动经济高质 量发展向深向实。 新华财经北京1月31日电 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会31日发布的数据显示，1 月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、中国非制造业商务活动指数和中国综合PMI产出指数分别为 49.3%、49.4%和49.8%，比上月下降0.8个、0.8个和0.9个百分点。 1月，我国制造业市场需求在上月基础上有所放缓，新订单指数为49.2%，较上月下降1.6个百分点。 "后期，制造业景气度将主要受出口增速变化、国内房地产市场走势、稳增长政策出台的节奏和力度牵 动。"王青说，在年初"一揽子结构性政策"发力后，二季度货币政策有望实施降息降准，财政政策在促 消费、扩投资方向也将全面加力，今年稳增长政策节奏有可能适度提前。 国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究员张立群建议："要显著扩大政府公共产品投资规模，有效扩 大需求、增加企业订单，充分发挥好政府宏观经济治理对市场失灵的有力矫正作 ...