Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the A-share market continues to rise with increased trading volume, driven by heightened risk appetite, suggesting that the spring rally may have further room to grow [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market has broken through previous highs, indicating a continuation of the spring rally driven by strong momentum effects [1] - The trading structure appears concentrated, with some hot sectors needing to alleviate pressure from overcrowding, increasing the likelihood of a rotation in market trends [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - As the earnings forecast window approaches, it is advised to seek high cost-performance opportunities, focusing on sectors with improved external demand and relatively low crowding [1] - Specific industries recommended for attention include gaming, duty-free, batteries, engineering machinery, and agricultural chemicals [1] Group 3: Mid-term Strategy - The mid-term allocation strategy remains unchanged, with a recommendation to accumulate upstream resource products in the power supply chain during price dips [1]

Core Viewpoint - The formal implementation of the group standard "Technical Requirements for Sodium-ion Batteries for Energy Storage" marks a new phase in the standardization of sodium-ion batteries in China's energy storage sector, indicating that the sodium battery industry chain has completed its cold start and is expected to enter a period of industrial scale expansion [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Development - The sodium battery industry is expected to accelerate its deployment, with companies involved in the sodium-ion battery industry chain likely to benefit first from the newly approved group standard [2]. - The group standard, effective from February 1, 2026, provides clear regulations on terminology, testing methods, inspection rules, labeling, packaging, transportation, and storage for sodium-ion batteries used in energy storage [2]. - Sodium batteries are anticipated to become an effective supplement to lithium batteries, with a cost advantage highlighted by the ability to use cheaper sodium carbonate instead of lithium carbonate, and aluminum foil instead of copper foil, resulting in a 30%-40% lower material cost compared to lithium batteries [2]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - In April 2025, CATL launched its new sodium-ion battery brand "CATL Sodium New," achieving an energy density of 175Wh/kg, comparable to lithium iron phosphate batteries, with a range of 500 kilometers and excellent low-temperature performance, maintaining 90% usable capacity at -40°C [3]. - The sodium battery industry chain has completed its basic ecological construction, and rising prices of lithium battery materials are gradually narrowing the cost gap between sodium and lithium batteries, indicating a positive market introduction for sodium batteries driven by leading battery companies like CATL [3].

Core Viewpoint - The industry is transitioning from an emotion-driven phase to a rational value-return cycle by 2026 [3]. Group 1: Solid-State Battery Market - The shipment volume of semi-solid-state batteries is expected to exceed 15 GWh in 2026, driven by the acceleration of pilot and early production lines, such as those from GAC Group and Qingtao Energy [5]. - Significant improvements in solid-state battery core materials and processes are anticipated, with energy density reaching 400 Wh/kg by 2025, a notable increase from below 350 Wh/kg in 2024 [5]. - The market growth remains uncertain due to challenges in controlling consistency in oxide and polymer routes, affecting product yield and delivery stability [5]. - Full solid-state batteries will enter intensive road testing phases but are unlikely to achieve mass production within the year due to technical bottlenecks and high costs [6]. Group 2: IPO Trends in Lithium Industry - A wave of IPO applications from lithium industry chain companies is expected in 2026, with leaders in materials, equipment, energy storage integration, and solid-state batteries likely to benefit first [6]. - Material companies are seeing an expanded supply-demand gap for high-end products, accelerating the IPO process for those with technological advantages and strong customer ties [7]. - Resource companies with lithium mining capabilities are more likely to restart IPOs due to inventory reduction and rising price levels [8]. - Equipment companies are benefiting from the recovery in battery factory expansion demands, focusing on semi-solid and full solid-state battery equipment [8]. - Energy storage integration companies are transitioning to a profitable model based on technology and service premiums, increasing their chances of successful IPOs [8]. Group 3: Sodium-Ion Battery Market - The shipment volume of sodium-ion batteries in China is projected to exceed 10 GWh in 2026, doubling year-on-year, driven by rising lithium battery material prices and cost advantages in energy storage applications [10]. - Sodium batteries are expected to address performance limitations of lithium batteries, particularly in low-temperature environments, making them suitable for northern markets [10]. - Leading companies like CATL are accelerating their sodium battery deployment across various sectors, including energy storage and electric vehicles [10]. - The NFPP sodium-ion battery is expected to dominate with over 80% market share due to its advantages in stability and cost [10]. Group 4: Cylindrical Battery Market - The shipment volume of cylindrical batteries in China is expected to grow over 50% year-on-year, surpassing 45 GWh, with energy storage being a key growth area [12]. - The demand for cylindrical batteries is driven by the need to replace square cell structures in home storage products, providing a low-cost and high-safety solution [12]. - Rapid capacity release in 2025 is expected to support supply, with major companies focusing on different market segments, ensuring a breakthrough in shipment volumes [12]. Group 5: Silicon-Based Anode Materials - The application of CVD silicon-based composite anode materials in the 3C digital battery market is expected to exceed 50% by 2026, leading to significant growth in output [15]. - The demand for higher energy density and lighter batteries in 3C products is driving the adoption of silicon-carbon composite anodes [15]. - However, technological challenges remain in the large-scale application of these materials in power batteries, particularly regarding consistency in manufacturing processes [15].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a significant surge with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4100-point mark, indicating a strong market momentum [3] - The trading volume exceeded 3.1 trillion yuan, which is a critical threshold that may attract more follow-up capital into the market [3] - Financing balances have rapidly increased, with some brokerage firms reporting that their margin trading quotas have been fully utilized, indicating strong demand for leveraged investments [3] Group 2 - A substantial amount of capital, approximately 30 trillion yuan, is expected to be "unlocked" in 2026 as funds currently held in fixed deposits mature, which could lead to increased investments in the stock market [3] - The potential inflow of funds into the A-share market is likely to rise, as the stock market currently outperforms other asset classes [3] - The adjustment of export tax rebates for solar and battery sectors may impact the grid sector, although specific effects are yet to be fully assessed [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "opening red" in the A-share market reflects a favorable macroeconomic environment and abundant liquidity, which supports market risk appetite and attracts incremental capital inflow, creating a positive feedback loop between capital inflow and market rise [2][18]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share market has experienced a strong start with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking key levels and achieving a "sixteen consecutive days" rise, exceeding many investors' expectations [1][19]. - Historical data indicates that after a single-day trading volume exceeds 3 trillion yuan, there is typically at least a monthly-level market rally [19]. - Various types of trading funds have shown signs of accelerated entry, including a net inflow of 78.9 billion yuan in margin financing since the beginning of the year and a return of retail investor net inflow to around 30 billion yuan daily [2][5]. Group 2: Structural Characteristics - The inflow structure of different funds shows a strong consensus on key themes, primarily focusing on TMT (storage, AI applications), military industry (commercial aerospace), non-ferrous metals, new energy (controlled nuclear fusion), machinery (robots), and pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs, brain-machine interfaces) [5][36]. - The global stock market has also seen a strong start in 2026, driven by macroeconomic and industrial narratives, with A-shares reflecting similar trends [13][18]. Group 3: Future Directions - As companies begin to disclose annual reports, earnings will become a key factor driving market dynamics, leading to a structural adjustment where previously hot sectors face performance validation, while some low-performing sectors may attract new capital inflows [36]. - Industries with significant upward revisions in profit forecasts since November include technology (consumer electronics, computing), advanced manufacturing (new energy, military), cyclical sectors (building materials, non-ferrous metals), and consumer sectors (food processing, retail) [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - Expansion will be the key theme in 2026, particularly in the energy storage battery sector, with multiple projects accelerating progress early in the year [2]. Group 1: Project Developments - The Guokai Energy (Lanzhou New Area) Co., Ltd. has initiated a 30GWh new energy battery production base project, with the first phase involving an investment of 2.8 billion yuan to establish a modern production facility for 10GWh lithium iron phosphate energy storage cells [3]. - The first phase of the project will include four production lines, with an expected annual revenue of 4.1 billion yuan upon completion [3]. - Guokai Energy has rapidly developed its energy storage layout, with total investments nearing 34 billion yuan and a comprehensive planned capacity exceeding 90GWh across multiple locations [3]. Group 2: Recent Progress - The Anqing project of Guokai Energy has also made significant strides, with the intelligent manufacturing base for energy storage batteries officially commencing production, featuring three main cell types [4]. - This project has a total investment of 5.5 billion yuan and is designed as a fully automated smart factory, with plans for a second phase expansion to achieve an annual output value exceeding 5 billion yuan [4]. Group 3: Strategic Collaborations - During the production launch, Guokai Energy signed strategic cooperation agreements with several leading energy storage integrators and energy groups, covering aspects such as annual cell supply, joint technology development, and overseas project collaboration [5]. Group 4: Product Capabilities - Guokai Energy has developed a comprehensive product solution capability from cells to energy storage system integration, featuring high-capacity lithium iron phosphate energy storage cells with advanced design and manufacturing processes [6]. - The company's energy storage cabinet products are designed for high integration and intelligence, significantly enhancing energy density by 40% while maintaining a compact footprint [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the explosive growth of the large cylindrical battery and all-tab technology market, with a projected increase of over 15% in China's cylindrical battery shipments by 2025, and a growth rate exceeding 40% for large cylindrical batteries [3] - Major companies in the large cylindrical battery sector, such as EVE Energy, Molicel, and others, are expected to face supply shortages due to high demand, indicating a robust market outlook for 2026 [3] - The integration of advanced technologies like all-tab, high nickel, silicon-carbon, and sodium batteries with cylindrical batteries is anticipated to create new growth points and market opportunities [3] Group 2 - The event, titled "2026 (Second) Qidian Lithium Battery Cylindrical Battery Technology Forum and Top 20 Rankings Release," is organized by Qidian Lithium Battery and Qidian Research Institute (SPIR), and is set to take place on April 10, 2026, in Shenzhen [6][3] - The forum will feature discussions on cutting-edge technologies, applications, and innovations in cylindrical batteries, including high-power cylindrical battery technology and next-generation large cylindrical battery development [7][8] - A comprehensive competitive ranking of the top 20 cylindrical battery companies will be published, covering key aspects such as battery cells, equipment, and materials, serving as a reference for industry procurement [3]

Group 1 - The State Council of China has implemented a package policy to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial collaboration, aiming to enhance effective demand and innovate macroeconomic regulation [2] - The policy includes optimizing service industry loans and personal consumption loan interest subsidies to boost consumer spending, as well as supporting private investment through loan interest subsidies for small and micro enterprises [2] - Measures will be taken to ensure the effective implementation of these policies, enhancing the sense of gain for the public and businesses [2] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has announced a significant increase in the rewards for whistleblowers reporting securities and futures violations, with the maximum reward raised from 300,000 yuan to 1 million yuan [3][4] - The new regulations emphasize the importance of whistleblowers in maintaining market integrity and protecting investors' rights, aligning with international practices [4] - The reward structure has been adjusted to include cases that severely disrupt market order or harm financial security, with a new reward rate of 3% of the penalties collected [4] Group 3 - China has applied for over 200,000 satellite frequency resources from the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), with more than 190,000 satellites coming from the Wireless Radio Innovation Institute [5] - This move indicates a significant expansion in China's satellite capabilities, paralleling developments from companies like SpaceX, which has received approval to deploy an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites [5] Group 4 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration of China announced the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, and for battery products starting January 1, 2027 [6] - This marks the first comprehensive cancellation of export tax rebates for the photovoltaic industry since the policy was introduced in 2013, aimed at reducing trade friction and improving fiscal resource allocation [6] - The adjustment is expected to help stabilize export prices and mitigate the rapid decline in export prices, contributing to a more rational return in foreign markets [6] Group 5 - The Shanghai Municipal Government has released a three-year action plan to support the transformation and upgrading of advanced manufacturing industries from 2026 to 2028, focusing on structural optimization and innovation [7] - The plan encourages investments in emerging fields such as commercial aerospace and humanoid robotics, aiming to accelerate the development of innovative products like electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles [7] Group 6 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has withdrawn a plan to place restrictions on Chinese-manufactured drones, which was initially proposed due to national security concerns [8] - This decision reflects a shift in U.S. policy regarding the import of Chinese drones, which could have implications for the drone manufacturing industry [8] Group 7 - The U.S. labor statistics report indicated a lower-than-expected increase in non-farm employment for December, leading to a significant shift in market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, which analysts believe has effectively closed the door on imminent rate cuts, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in January dropping to 5% [9] Group 8 - The CSRC has approved the IPO registrations for three companies, indicating ongoing activity in the capital markets [11] - Upcoming new stock issuances include two companies scheduled for the week of January 12-16, 2026, reflecting continued interest in public offerings [12] Group 9 - Approximately 500 billion yuan worth of restricted shares will be unlocked this week, with 26 companies set to release a total of 2.519 billion shares [14] - The companies with the highest market value of unlocked shares include Zhongke Lanyun and Tianxin Pharmaceutical, which could impact market liquidity and stock prices [14]

Macro and Financial - CPI continues to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8% in December 2025, driven mainly by food prices, which rose by 1.1% [5][6] - The Ministry of Finance announced adjustments to export tax rebates for photovoltaic products, effective from April 1, 2026, aiming to reduce trade friction and improve fiscal resource allocation [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is promoting the construction of a national integrated computing network to enhance industrial smart computing capabilities [8] - A guideline for the construction of industrial green microgrids has been issued, aiming to promote the use of green electricity in key industrial sectors [9][10] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced new regulations to enhance whistleblower rewards for securities and futures violations, increasing the reward percentage from 1% to 3% of penalties [14][15] - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a new high, closing at 4120.43 points after a 16-day consecutive rise, with significant trading volume exceeding 3.1 trillion yuan [19] - Goldman Sachs has expressed a positive outlook on the Chinese stock market, predicting a 20% increase in the MSCI China Index and a 12% increase in the CSI 300 Index for the year [17] Business and Industry - The MIIT has warned against irrational competition in the lithium battery industry, emphasizing the need for market regulation and quality supervision [27] - The State Council's Anti-Monopoly Committee is investigating the competitive landscape of the food delivery platform industry due to issues of excessive subsidies and price competition [28] - The Ministry of Commerce has stated that any foreign acquisitions must comply with Chinese laws and regulations, particularly regarding Meta's acquisition of Manus [29] - The sixth batch of national high-value medical consumables procurement has been initiated, focusing on drug-coated balloons and urological intervention consumables [33]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: DTW Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The DTW timing model is based on a similarity approach, analyzing the similarity between current index trends and historical trends. It selects historical segments with high similarity as references and calculates the weighted average future returns and standard deviations of these segments to generate trading signals [20][22]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use the DTW (Dynamic Time Warping) distance algorithm instead of Euclidean distance to measure similarity, as DTW is better suited for time series problems by addressing sequence misalignment issues [22]. 2. Calculate the weighted average future returns and standard deviations of selected historical segments, where weights are the inverse of the DTW distance [20]. 3. Generate trading signals based on the average future returns and standard deviations [20]. 4. To address the "pathological matching" issue in traditional DTW algorithms, improved DTW algorithms with boundary constraints (e.g., Sakoe-Chiba and Itakura Parallelogram) are applied [24][26][28]. - **Model Evaluation**: The DTW timing model demonstrates stable excess returns in general market conditions but may underperform during periods of sudden macroeconomic policy changes [9]. 2. Model Name: Foreign Capital Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages information embedded in the price movements of two offshore assets related to A-shares: FTSE China A50 Index Futures (Singapore market) and the Southbound A50 ETF (Hong Kong market) [30]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Construct two indicators using FTSE China A50 Index Futures: basis and price divergence [30]. 2. Construct a price divergence indicator using the Southbound A50 ETF [30]. 3. Combine the timing signals from the two assets to form the foreign capital timing signal [30]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model achieves strong performance, with annualized returns of 18.96% (long-short strategy) and 14.19% (long-only strategy) over the full sample period (2014-2024). It also exhibits a high win rate (close to 55%) and a profit-loss ratio exceeding 2.5 [13]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. DTW Timing Model - **Absolute Return**: 35.52% since November 2022 [9] - **Excess Return (relative to CSI 300)**: 8.60% [9] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 21.32% [9] 2. Foreign Capital Timing Model - **Annualized Return (Long-Short Strategy)**: 18.96% (2014-2024) [13] - **Annualized Return (Long-Only Strategy)**: 14.19% (2014-2024) [13] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 25.69% (Long-Short), 17.27% (Long-Only) [13] - **Win Rate**: Close to 55% [13] - **Profit-Loss Ratio**: Exceeds 2.5 [13] - **Absolute Return (2024)**: 31.33% (Long-Only Strategy) [17] - **Maximum Drawdown (2024)**: 8.23% [17] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: DTW Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: DTW distance is used as a similarity measure for time series, addressing sequence misalignment issues that arise with traditional Euclidean distance [22]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Compute the DTW distance between the current index trend and historical trends [22]. 2. Use the inverse of the DTW distance as weights to calculate the weighted average future returns and standard deviations of historical segments [20]. 3. Generate trading signals based on these weighted averages [20]. - **Factor Evaluation**: DTW distance is more effective for time series problems compared to Euclidean distance, as it resolves sequence misalignment and improves model performance [22]. 2. Factor Name: Basis and Price Divergence (Foreign Capital Timing Model) - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors are derived from offshore assets to capture information about A-share market trends [30]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the basis and price divergence indicators using FTSE China A50 Index Futures [30]. 2. Calculate the price divergence indicator using the Southbound A50 ETF [30]. 3. Combine these indicators to form the foreign capital timing signal [30]. - **Factor Evaluation**: These factors effectively capture offshore market signals and contribute to the strong performance of the foreign capital timing model [13]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. DTW Distance - **Absolute Return**: 35.52% since November 2022 [9] - **Excess Return (relative to CSI 300)**: 8.60% [9] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 21.32% [9] 2. Basis and Price Divergence - **Annualized Return (Long-Short Strategy)**: 18.96% (2014-2024) [13] - **Annualized Return (Long-Only Strategy)**: 14.19% (2014-2024) [13] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 25.69% (Long-Short), 17.27% (Long-Only) [13] - **Win Rate**: Close to 55% [13] - **Profit-Loss Ratio**: Exceeds 2.5 [13] - **Absolute Return (2024)**: 31.33% (Long-Only Strategy) [17] - **Maximum Drawdown (2024)**: 8.23% [17]