玻璃八月报 市场情绪降温 尝试短期做空 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-8-4 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 01 投资策略：震荡偏弱 p 主要逻辑 行情回顾：七月玻璃期货价格先涨后跌，大幅波动，月底基本跌回月初原点。起初反内卷和化工装置淘汰等政策拉涨盘面， 期货大幅升水带动现货去库并锁住流动性。月末宏观会议落地，市场情绪减弱，盘面回归基本面。供给方面，七月份冷修2条， 点火复产1条，日熔量小幅回落。月内全国库存持续下降，主要还是因为期现商正套拿货导致，其中湖北作为价格洼地，库存 明显下降。同样，沙河市场观望情绪增加，厂家出货放缓，库存已出现拐头向上。华东华南受现货提涨影响，产销良好，库存 保持小幅去化。煤炭价格回升，煤制气成本均有所增加，但幅度不如售价，三种工艺利润得到改善。需求方面，中小加工厂的 订单情况仍然较差，中游加工厂商对需求仍持悲观看法。纯碱方面，产量处于高位水平，库存有止降回升的迹象，结合下半年 投产计划，市场对远期悲观预期较 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 研究员：侯帆 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 研究报告 纯碱周报 "反内卷"情绪持续降温，市场回归基本面 华龙期货投资咨询部 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 4 日星期一 库存情况纯碱库存压力仍存，截止到 2025 年 7 月 31 日，国 内纯碱厂家总库存 179.58 万吨，较上周一增加 1.22 万吨，涨幅 0.68%。 【综合分析】 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周纯碱主力合约SA2509 价格在1228-1432 元/吨之间运行， 价格回落。 截至 2025 年 8 月 1 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 下跌 184 元/吨，周度跌涨-12.78%，报收 1256 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率双降，截止到 2025 年 7 月 31 日， 上周国内纯碱产量 69.98 万吨，环比减少 2.40 万吨，跌幅 3.32%。 纯碱综合产能利用率 80 ...

Company Performance - Xinyi Glass reported a revenue of 9.821 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%, primarily due to the continuous decline in the average selling price of float glass [1] - The net profit for the period was 1.013 billion RMB, representing a significant year-on-year decline of 59.6%, with earnings per share at 0.2325 RMB [1] - The gross profit margin decreased from 34.2% to 31.6%, mainly attributed to the drop in average selling prices of float glass, although this was somewhat mitigated by lower average costs of raw materials and energy [1] Dividend and Market Reaction - The interim dividend declared was 0.125 HKD per share, down from 0.31 HKD per share in the same period last year [1] - Following the earnings announcement, Xinyi Glass's stock price fell by 3.08%, trading at 7.88 HKD with a transaction volume of 61.541 million HKD [1] Industry Outlook - CICC noted that Xinyi Glass's performance was in line with its previous forecasts but slightly below expectations due to the overall weak demand in the float and construction glass sectors [1] - Huatai Securities indicated that the supply side of photovoltaic glass is beginning to reduce production, suggesting that the supply-demand dynamics may improve under the "anti-involution" context, with Xinyi Glass being a leading player in photovoltaic glass with significant scale and cost advantages, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

信义玻璃(00868)绩后跌超3%，截至发稿，跌3.08%，报7.88港元，成交额6154.11万港元。 消息面上，信义玻璃发布中期业绩，期内收益98.21亿人民币，同比下降9.7%，主要因浮法玻璃产品平 均售价持续下跌；纯利10.13亿元，同比下降59.6%，每股盈利23.25分。上半年毛利率由34.2%下降至 31.6%，主要由于浮法玻璃产品平均售价持续下降，但因原物料及能源平均成本降低而得到缓解。中期 息12.5港仙，上年同期派31港仙。 中金指出，信义玻璃业绩符合其前期预告，但小幅低于我们预期，主要由于浮法、建筑玻璃行业整体需 求低迷。华泰证券则表示，光伏玻璃供给端开始减产，"反内卷"背景下供需格局有望改善，公司作为光 伏玻璃龙头，规模和成本优势显著，维持"买入"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded Xinyi Glass's (00868) 2025 EPS forecast by 21% to HKD 0.52, while maintaining the 2026 EPS at HKD 0.68, reflecting a challenging float glass business in the current year but potential marginal improvement in the industry landscape [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 revenue decreased by 9.7% year-on-year to HKD 9.8 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 59.6% to HKD 1 billion, slightly below CICC's expectations due to weak demand in the float and architectural glass sectors [2] - Automotive glass revenue increased by 10.6% year-on-year to HKD 3.3 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 5.0 percentage points to 54.5%, slightly exceeding CICC's expectations [3] - Float glass revenue dropped by 16.4% year-on-year to HKD 5.4 billion, with the industry average price falling by 28% to HKD 1,329 per ton, and the gross margin decreased by 10.6 percentage points to 17.8%, nearing historical lows [4] Group 2: Cost and Capital Expenditure - The company's selling expense ratio increased by 2.4 percentage points to 18.6%, primarily due to additional import tariffs from the U.S., with the effective tax rate rising by 5-6 percentage points due to reduced profits from joint ventures [5] - Capital expenditure decreased by 81% year-on-year to HKD 1 billion, mainly for investments in new industrial parks in China and Indonesia, while the interim dividend per share was maintained at HKD 0.125, with a payout ratio of approximately 49% [6] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The float glass industry is expected to continue adjusting supply through cold repairs, with potential for improved profitability due to rising production costs from environmental regulations [7] - The company's focus on automotive glass, particularly in the aftermarket and proactive market expansion, is anticipated to provide a safety net for overall profitability [7]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the EPS forecast for Xinyi Glass (00868) for 2025 by 21% to HKD 0.52, while maintaining the 2026 EPS at HKD 0.68, reflecting a challenging environment for the float glass business but potential marginal improvement in the industry landscape [1] Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 revenue decreased by 9.7% year-on-year to HKD 9.8 billion, and the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 59.6% to HKD 1 billion, slightly below CICC's expectations due to weak demand in the float and architectural glass sectors [2] Automotive Glass Segment - The automotive glass segment showed a revenue increase of 10.6% year-on-year to HKD 3.3 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 5.0 percentage points to 54.5%, slightly exceeding CICC's expectations due to the focus on high-value products and new customer acquisition [3] Float Glass Segment - The float glass segment's revenue declined by 16.4% year-on-year to HKD 5.4 billion, with the industry average price dropping by 28% to HKD 1,329 per ton, and the gross margin fell by 10.6 percentage points to 17.8%, nearing historical lows [4] Expense and Taxation - The company's expense ratio increased by 2.4 percentage points to 18.6%, with the sales expense ratio rising by 1.6 percentage points to 6.7%, attributed to increased import tariffs from the U.S. Additionally, the effective tax rate rose by 5-6 percentage points due to reduced profits from joint ventures [5] Capital Expenditure and Dividends - Capital expenditure decreased by 81% year-on-year to HKD 1 billion, primarily for investments in new industrial parks in China and Indonesia. The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.125 per share, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of around 49% and an interim dividend yield of 3.3% [6] Industry Outlook - The float glass industry is expected to adjust supply through cold repairs in the short term, with potential for improved profitability due to rising production costs from environmental regulations. The automotive glass segment's focus on aftermarket and proactive market expansion is anticipated to provide a safety net for overall profitability [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance slightly missed expectations, primarily due to weak demand in the float and architectural glass sectors, despite a solid performance in automotive glass [1][2]. Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue decreased by 9.7% year-on-year to 9.8 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 59.6% to 1 billion [1]. - Automotive glass revenue increased by 10.6% year-on-year to 3.3 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 5.0 percentage points to 54.5% [1]. - Float glass revenue declined by 16.4% year-on-year to 5.4 billion, with a gross margin decrease of 10.6 percentage points to 17.8%, nearing historical lows [1]. Cost and Expenses - The selling expense ratio increased by 1.6 percentage points to 6.7%, attributed to higher import tariff costs from the U.S. [2]. - Capital expenditures decreased by 81% year-on-year to 1 billion, primarily for investments in new industrial parks in China and Indonesia [2]. Development Trends - The deep processing products are expected to provide a profit safety net, while the float glass industry may see marginal improvements in its structure [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its automotive glass market, which is anticipated to support overall profitability [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The EPS forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 21% to 0.52, while the 2026 EPS remains at 0.68 [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14x for 2025 and 11x for 2026, with a target price of 8.5 HKD, implying a potential upside of 5% [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [3] Core Views - The sentiment of "anti-involution" is cooling down, and attention should be paid to changes in the fundamentals of the construction materials sector [2] - The construction materials sector experienced a decline of 2.30% from July 28 to August 1, 2025, with specific declines in sub-sectors such as cement (1.25%), glass manufacturing (4.55%), and fiberglass manufacturing (4.01%) [1][11] - The report highlights the importance of urban renewal as a key driver for real estate demand, while also emphasizing the need for regulatory compliance to curb disorderly competition among enterprises [2] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of August 1, 2025, the national cement price index is 337.69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76% from the previous week, with a total cement output of 2.754 million tons, up 1.07% week-on-week [15] - The utilization rate of cement clinker production capacity is 58.09%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous week, and the cement inventory ratio is 62.21%, down 0.39 percentage points [15] - Infrastructure remains the core support for cement demand, with expectations of resilient demand in Q3 due to accelerated issuance of special bonds and the promotion of "dual-use" infrastructure projects [15] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass this week is 1295.28 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.58% from the previous week, with a total inventory of 51.78 million weight boxes, down 156,000 weight boxes week-on-week [28] - Market sentiment has weakened due to falling futures prices, leading to the release of speculative inventory and a decrease in shipments from float glass manufacturers [28] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali fiberglass has decreased, primarily due to previous price adjustments, while demand remains weak during the traditional off-season [6] - The price of G75 electronic yarn remains stable, supported by high-end product demand, while supply is expected to increase in the future [6] Consumer Building Materials - Consumer building materials are benefiting from improved second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies, with a focus on companies like Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials [2][8] - The report recommends monitoring companies with growth potential in the consumer building materials sector, such as Puyuan Co. and Yilong Co. [4]

南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报 ——交易回归现实 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月3日 一、玻璃核心观点 【供应】 目前玻璃日熔处于15.96万吨，整体稳定。暂无预期外变动，安徽冠盛 600 吨预计 7-8月点火，安全六线预计 7-8月点火，乌海中玻 800 吨一线预计 8-10 月前后冷修。 【库存】 玻璃厂内库存5949.9万重箱，环比-239.7万重箱，环比-3.87%，同比-13.88%。折库存天数25.5天，较上 期-1.1天。沙河中游库存快速增加；负反馈下，现货跟跌，产销疲弱。 【利润】 隆众数据，各工艺玻璃产线利润，天然气-150元，煤制气+138元，石油焦+138元。 【需求】 截至7月底，深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.55天，环比+2.7%，同比-1.55%；深加工持有原片库存13天，环 比+25%，同比+54.76%。本周各区平均产销84，上周123，环比上周明显走弱。 【策略观点】 交易回归产业现实，不过政策预期或在持续与降温中反复，市场情绪亦有反复。基本面看，供应端日熔小幅 回升，暂无预期外状况。当前玻璃累计表需下滑8 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on Sichuan Road and Bridge as a leading player in Southwest infrastructure, highlighting its current combination of regional infrastructure growth and dividend yield [3][15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of local manufacturing in Africa, particularly for companies like Keda Manufacturing, which is positioned as a leader in localized production and sales [4][16]. - The report notes a price increase in RTF copper foil, indicating a high demand for HVLP products, and suggests continued investment in copper foil and electronic cloth sectors [5][17]. - The report tracks the performance of various materials, indicating a downward trend in cement prices and a mixed outlook for glass and fiberglass markets [6][18][22]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Sichuan Road and Bridge is highlighted for its strong position in Southwest infrastructure, with a reported investment of 134.9 billion yuan in transportation construction, ranking second nationally and showing a 3.5% increase year-on-year [3][15]. Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices averaged 340 yuan per ton, down 43 yuan year-on-year, with an average shipment rate of 44.7% [6][18]. - Glass prices increased to 1295.28 yuan per ton, reflecting a 4.58% rise, while concrete mixing stations reported a capacity utilization rate of 7.12% [6][18]. - The report warns of potential price declines in steel due to market fundamentals [6][18]. National Subsidy Tracking - The report mentions the allocation of 690 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement subsidies, with plans for further funding in October [7][19]. Important Changes - Notable acquisitions include Defu Technology's purchase of Circuit Foil Luxembourg for 174 million euros and the listing of Hanhai Group on the A-share market [8][20][21]. Market Performance - The construction materials index fell by 3.96% over the week, with specific declines in glass manufacturing and fiberglass sectors [24]. Material Price Changes - Cement prices continued to decline, with a national average of 340 yuan per ton, while glass prices showed a slight increase [32][41]. - Fiberglass prices remained under pressure, with a reported average of 3595.25 yuan per ton [66].