期货研究报告 | 商品研究 关注早熟品种开称价 2025年6月16日-6月22日 2025年6月22日 —苹果周报 • 招商农业-李依穗 • liyisui1@cmschina.com.cn • 联系电话：0755-82959861 • 执业资格号：Z0020997 苹果周观点：关注早熟品种开称价 ➢ 风险提示：天气。 2 4 ➢ 市场表现：过去一周主力合约收7725元/吨，周涨幅0.09%。山东烟台栖霞苹果价格平稳，80#以上一二级货源果农货片红3.5-3.8元 /斤，条纹3.5-4.5元/斤，客商货片红4.0-4.5元/斤，条纹4.0-5.0元/斤。统货2.8-3.0元/斤，三级客商货2.5-3.0元/斤。 1 ➢ 供给方面：截至2025年6月20日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量为116.49万吨，库存量环比减少10.97万吨，处于历史低位水平。 ➢ 需求方面：截至2025年6月20日，全国主产区苹果冷库出库量为10.97万吨，库存量较上周增加0.23万吨。 ➢ 基本面：早熟品种占苹果总产量约20%，早熟品种的开称指向新季苹果的现货价格。陕西、陕西地区的早熟品种因成熟时间较早， 今年大风干旱影响对早熟品种影响 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the historical significance and economic transformation of lychee cultivation in Guangdong, emphasizing its evolution from a traditional agricultural product to a key player in the modern "sweet economy" [1][7][20]. Industry Overview - The lychee industry in Guangdong has expanded significantly, covering over 4 million acres, showcasing the region's agricultural richness [9]. - The industry has developed a comprehensive supply chain, with various soil types producing diverse lychee varieties, each representing the sweetness of the region [10]. Economic Impact - The lychee has become a symbol of Guangdong's agricultural output, with its products reaching global markets through advanced logistics, including cold chain transportation [17]. - The article notes the increasing integration of technology in the industry, such as drones and live-streaming sales, which enhance market reach and consumer engagement [13]. Cultural Significance - Lychee is portrayed as a cultural icon, with historical references dating back to the Tang and Song dynasties, reflecting its deep-rooted connection to the region's identity [3][5]. - The narrative emphasizes the lychee's role in connecting Guangdong to the world, serving as a "business card" for the region [20].

Core Insights - The price of "Yanzhi Hong" fresh peaches has exceeded 5 yuan per pound this year, with many customers pre-ordering online [1] - The "Yanzhi Hong" peach industry has significantly boosted local employment and income, with an expected 20% increase in revenue this year compared to last year [1][2] - The total sales of fresh peaches reached 450 million yuan last year, with 70% of sales coming from online channels [1][2] Group 1: Industry Development - "Yanzhi Hong" fresh peaches were included in the agricultural product geographical indication protection range in 2010 and ranked among the top 20 regional public brands in Hubei in 2020 [2] - A comprehensive quality control system has been established for the entire process of planting, harvesting, processing, and storage, supported by local agricultural and market regulatory departments [2] - The industry has developed e-commerce live streaming, production processing, cold chain logistics, and leisure picking, contributing to a total industry chain output value exceeding 1 billion yuan [1][2] Group 2: Future Goals - The local government aims to expand the planting area of "Yanzhi Hong" peaches to over 100,000 acres, with more than 600 large-scale operators and an annual output exceeding 150,000 tons within five years [3] - The brand value is targeted to exceed 2 billion yuan, with the total industry chain output value expected to surpass 5 billion yuan [3]

Group 1 - Guangdong successfully defended against Typhoon "Butterfly" with zero casualties and no dam failures, achieving significant disaster mitigation [3][7][8] - The province faced severe flooding due to the typhoon and monsoon rains, with historical high water levels recorded in several rivers [4][5] - The effective response included enhanced monitoring, emergency preparedness, and timely rescue operations, minimizing the impact of the disaster [6][8] Group 2 - Guangdong lychee "Feizixiao" has successfully exported 11 tons to Thailand, marking a significant achievement in agricultural trade [10][19] - The export journey began on June 9, with the shipment arriving in Bangkok on June 18, showcasing the collaboration between local agricultural companies [17][19] Group 3 - The fifth National Winter Melon Industry Conference highlighted the diversification of winter melon varieties, with both large and small winter melons gaining market attention [20][22] - The demand for high-quality winter melons is increasing, driving the industry towards higher quality standards [24] Group 4 - The "Cultural and Technological Empowerment" training session in Huizhou aimed to enhance the local agricultural industry, particularly focusing on Huizhou's specialty product, Mei Cai [33][36] - Over 300 participants from various sectors attended the training, indicating strong interest in agricultural innovation and development [42]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful promotion and sales of Huizhou lychee through innovative live-streaming marketing strategies, showcasing the fruit's quality and the region's agricultural strengths [1][2][6]. Group 1: Event and Marketing Strategy - A themed media event and live-streaming activity were organized to promote Huizhou lychee, attracting around 30 media outlets and influencers to boost sales [1][2]. - The first live-streaming session achieved impressive sales of 6 tons of lychee, demonstrating the effectiveness of the "media-driven + influencer-led" sales model [1][2]. - The county's commitment to future live-streaming initiatives is evident, with plans to explore various formats to enhance agricultural sales [2][6]. Group 2: Quality and Production - Huizhou is recognized as "the hometown of lychee" in China, with a total planting area of 173,600 acres and over 500 participating growers [2][3]. - The region's unique geographical and climatic conditions contribute to the lychee's exceptional quality, characterized by rich flavor and high sweetness [3][4]. - Huizhou boasts over 50 varieties of lychee, with a focus on mid to late-ripening types available from late June to late July [3][4]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Logistics - The supply chain for lychee sales is meticulously managed, ensuring freshness through careful selection, packaging, and logistics [4][5]. - Collaborations with well-known logistics companies have been established to expedite delivery, ensuring that lychee reaches consumers in optimal condition [4][5]. - Local farmers have secured procurement agreements for 25 tons of lychee with various distributors, enhancing sales stability and pricing [5]. Group 4: Economic Impact and Future Prospects - The total expected lychee production for the county is projected to reach 110,000 tons, marking a record high in both variety and yield [6]. - The promotion of the "Huizhou lychee" brand is translating into tangible economic benefits for local farmers, supported by government initiatives to expand sales channels [6]. - The integration of digital marketing strategies is positioning Huizhou lychee for broader market access, leveraging the digital economy for growth [6].

Core Viewpoint - The development of the Wushan crisp plum industry in the Qinba Mountain area has significantly contributed to poverty alleviation and economic revitalization in the region [2][15]. Group 1: Industry Development - The Qinba Mountain area spans across six provinces and includes 75 counties, making it one of the most extensive poverty-stricken regions in China [1]. - The Wushan crisp plum has become a key agricultural product, with over 100,000 mu (approximately 66,667 acres) of land dedicated to its cultivation [10][15]. - The average weight of a crisp plum can reach 0.5 kg per five fruits, with market prices around 20 yuan per kg, indicating substantial economic potential [6]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The average disposable income in Tian'e Village increased from over 8,000 yuan in 2017 to 15,000 yuan last year, marking a growth of approximately 77% [11]. - The "Wushan Crisp Plum" brand has expanded beyond Wushan County to include multiple districts, with a total planting area of about 800,000 mu [15]. - The local government has invested in infrastructure improvements, such as roads, which have facilitated the growth of the plum industry and enhanced market access [8][13]. Group 3: Community Transformation - The transformation of Tian'e Village from a poverty-stricken area with mud houses to a community with modern housing reflects the success of the poverty alleviation efforts [13]. - The integration of tourism with agriculture, such as plum picking and related activities, has further stimulated the local economy [10]. - The establishment of the "Wushan Crisp Plum Industry Brain" has connected over 100 distributors and six supply chain companies, enhancing the efficiency of the industry [10].

Group 1 - The Guangdong government has announced the establishment of 45 green food lychee production bases to promote high-quality agricultural products [24][26][28] - The lychee season is in full swing, with Guangdong producing over half of China's lychee and one-third of the world's supply [25] - The 雷岭 lychee, known for its quality and fragrance, has been exported to North America, UAE, and Singapore for several years [20][21] Group 2 - A new export market for 雷岭 lychee has been established, with the first batch weighing approximately 60,000 pounds shipped to North America [50][51] - The Guangdong provincial government is actively supporting disaster recovery efforts, allocating 60 million yuan for post-disaster recovery in areas affected by recent typhoons [4] - The construction of typical towns in Guangdong is progressing, with training sessions held to enhance the capabilities of construction enterprises [10][12][14]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 苹果市场周报 多空因素交织，苹果宽幅震荡 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 关 注 微信服 务 号 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况及期权 4、期股关联 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周苹果期货2510价格上涨，周度上涨1.92%。 行情展望：新季苹果方面，产区套袋工作收尾，产量问题逐渐明朗，根据市场对 陕西苹果主产区坐果和套袋情况调研来看，陕西今年坐果套袋情况较去年同期减 产幅度不会特别大，预计在5%-10%。截至2025年6月18日，全国主产区苹果冷库 库存量为116.49万吨，环比上周减少10.97万吨，走货速度较上周基本持平，同比 去年同期有所减缓。山东产区库容比为16.43%，较上周减少0.86%，去库速度环 比减慢。山东产区目前处于农忙阶段，整体交易清淡。陕西产区库容比为8.9%， 较上周减少0.76%，走货较上周表现略慢。其他水果竞争和替代增加，苹果需求清 单，走货速度放缓，而且农忙结束后，果农卖货意愿或有所好转，令苹果价格承 压，不过当前库存较低，对价格仍有支撑， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the advancements in agricultural productivity through technology and innovation, showcasing various practices and platforms that enhance efficiency in crop production and management [1][2][3]. Group 1: Agricultural Technology and Innovation - The central government emphasizes the importance of technological innovation in agriculture to enhance productivity and resource development [1]. - The "Tian Guan Jia" platform utilizes Beidou navigation and digital technology to connect farmers with machinery services, improving efficiency during the busy summer harvest season [3]. - Advanced machinery, such as precision seeders with GPS navigation, significantly reduces planting errors and enhances crop uniformity [2]. Group 2: Crop Management Practices - In Henan Province, farmers are adopting synchronized harvesting and planting techniques, allowing for efficient use of time and resources [2]. - In Sichuan, the introduction of new rice varieties and smart agricultural practices, including weather monitoring, is leading to better crop management and higher yields [4][5]. - The integration of smart greenhouses in Jilin Province allows for precise environmental control, improving blueberry production [7][8]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Market Access - The establishment of "Tian Guan Jia" has facilitated better coordination between farmers and machinery operators, ensuring timely harvesting and planting [3]. - In Guangdong, the implementation of "Tian Tou Xiao Zhan" (field-side stations) for pre-cooling lychees has reduced post-harvest losses and extended shelf life, enhancing market access [10][11]. - The development of a comprehensive cold chain logistics system in Guangdong has improved the distribution of lychees, allowing for faster delivery to markets across the country [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the vibrant promotion of lychee sales in Guangzhou through various innovative marketing strategies and collaborations among local businesses, government, and e-commerce platforms, aiming to enhance the lychee economy and boost local tourism and consumption. Group 1: Marketing Strategies - Guangzhou's Commerce Bureau has integrated online and offline resources, collaborating with over 200 key stores to create a "Lychee Theme Promotion Season" [2] - Major supermarkets are hosting themed events, such as "Centennial Old Tree Lychee Festival" and "Fresh Lychee Season," to enhance customer engagement [2] - E-commerce platforms like Douyin are leveraging their reach to promote lychee sales through live streaming and themed markets, enhancing the summer experience for consumers [2][3] Group 2: Supply Chain Enhancements - Guangzhou is recognized as a core production area for lychee, with a rich history and various popular varieties [4] - Key sales enterprises are partnering with logistics companies like JD and SF to improve the supply chain, ensuring faster delivery from farms to consumers [4] - JD Logistics has doubled its capacity in Guangdong, optimizing transportation methods, including high-speed rail, which significantly reduces delivery time and costs [4] Group 3: Financial Support - Financial institutions are offering exclusive discounts and promotional campaigns to support the lychee economy, such as payment discounts and special consumer vouchers [6] - The collaboration with local businesses and cultural events aims to enhance consumer engagement and promote the unique culinary experiences associated with lychee [6] Group 4: Future Initiatives - The Guangzhou Commerce Bureau is inviting nationwide participation in lychee-related activities and plans to further streamline the supply chain from production to consumption [7] - Upcoming events like the "Lychee Fragrance Across the Seas" aim to expand sales channels and drive quality improvements in the lychee industry [7]