刚刚过去的周末 ，美团、淘宝闪购以及京东外卖等平台，掀起新一轮即时零售补贴狂潮。0元 奶茶券、满18.8减18.8等大额优惠轮番上阵， 多个奶茶品牌再次爆单，美团即时零售日订单 量7月12日突破1.5亿单。 不过，订单狂欢的背后，高盛研报"敲响警钟"，伴随外卖平台竞争 强度提升，平台利润或将被侵蚀。 "几分钟的时间里来了几百杯！"7月12日晚间，长沙一家喜茶门店的店员对财联社记者感慨 道。店员手边的出杯区，摆满了待取走的饮品。 HEY el t Th th an 2014-01-1 車 re 7 l No th t in 1 in n TP-2 1 一世 4 1 the t l = 4 1 ar Q 淘宝搜索 | 骑士免单 规则 | 助手 就在几分钟前，美团外卖在APP上发放了新一轮"0元购"优惠券。凭借该优惠券，消费者可以 兑换包括喜茶、爷爷不泡茶、蜜雪冰城、奈雪的茶等多个品牌在内的任意一个品牌的指定饮 品。 有消费者告诉财联社记者，这是当天美团外卖发放的第二波"0元购"自取优惠券。当天早上， 美团外卖就已经发放了一次大额优惠券，其中包括奶茶自取"0元购"，以及部分早餐的大额优 惠券，"比如早餐时段的曼玲粥 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The return of everyday dining and the rise of home-cooked meals are significant trends, with the market for casual dining exceeding 1.2 trillion RMB, emphasizing high cost-performance [5][58] - The creator economy, particularly in the music streaming sector, is experiencing stable growth, with platforms enhancing their bargaining power through non-music content [22][24] - The casual dining market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1% from 2023 to 2028, reaching 55.87 billion RMB by 2028 [56][58] Summary by Sections 1. Trend in Casual Dining - The average spending on Chinese dining has decreased from 87.6 RMB in 2023 to 79.2 RMB in 2024, a decline of 9.6% [53][55] - The casual dining market is characterized by a shift towards high cost-performance and practicality, with a significant increase in home cooking frequency [53][56] - The market for affordable casual dining (under 100 RMB per meal) is the largest segment, accounting for 88.7% of the total dining market, with a current size of 36.18 billion RMB [56][58] 2. Creator Economy and Music Streaming - The global music streaming market is projected to reach over 20.4 billion USD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [27][30] - Subscription users in the music streaming sector are expected to grow to 263 million in 2024, reflecting an increase of 11% year-on-year [30] - Spotify's market penetration in emerging markets is driving user growth, with a CAGR of 35% from 2021 to 2025 [26][30] 3. Trends in Toy and Creator Economy - The online sales of trendy toys in June 2025 reached 1.348 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 16% [12][14] - The sales of blind boxes and plush toys showed strong performance, with blind boxes growing by 109% year-on-year [12][13] - The creator economy is bolstered by the growth of non-music content, enhancing platforms' bargaining power [22][24] 4. Beauty and Personal Care Market - The skincare market on Tmall has seen a concentration increase, with the top 20 brands accounting for 46.2% of the total GMV [66] - Domestic brands have seen a decline in both quantity and market share, while international brands have experienced double-digit growth [66][67]

以下文章来源于洒家君泽 ，作者洒家君泽 洒家君泽 . 我了解的过去我期待的未来 本文来自微信公众号： 洒家君泽 ，作者：洒家君泽，题图来自：AI生成 那就让我们开战吧！ 战火先从消费者看不到的地方开始，招聘一个外卖员就要花 1500 块，这还不算给他们的工资； 也要让更多大品牌愿意来自己这儿做外卖，星巴克、鼎泰丰的运费都由平台来负担，就为了借他们的 名头吸引更多人； 消费者当然很重要，满15 减 7，满 20 减 10……不论你在美团、饿了么还是百度外卖上，花费不到 20 块钱，就能吃一顿有菜有肉的午餐。 等下，你该不会以为我说的是上周六发生的外卖大战吧？ 这是 2015 年，整整十年前。饿了么拿到了阿里的融资，美团有腾讯作为后盾，而百度那时候也还 是"三巨头"之一，围绕着外卖，三方开始"撒钱"。有人说，单单在当年九月份，美团就消耗了 2 亿 资金，而饿了么也花掉了 1 亿元。 没人说得清这场战争的开始，撒钱，补贴，拉用户，做规模，是那个年代的常态；也没人说得清是什 么时候结束的，美团之后合并了大众点评，不久之后上市；饿了么则收购了百度外卖，阿里又收购了 饿了么，连续发起几次冲击，但最终和美团的差距也没有缩短 ...

Group 1 - JD.com officially entered the food delivery market on February 11, 2025, with a recruitment plan for "quality dining merchants" and introduced three key strategies: quality merchants, zero commission, and social security for delivery riders [1][4] - By April 2025, JD.com’s food delivery service achieved over 10 million daily orders, and by June 1, this number increased to over 25 million [2][3] - JD.com has established a significant presence with 120,000 full-time delivery riders and 1.5 million restaurant partners, maintaining daily orders above 25 million during the 618 shopping festival [3][4] Group 2 - Meituan's response to JD.com's entry was relatively subdued, focusing on providing new insurance for riders and announcing the independent launch of Meituan Flash Purchase, which aims for "30-minute delivery of everything" [5][6] - Meituan's strategic shift includes optimizing its operations by exiting unprofitable areas while expanding its focus on instant retail, including Flash Purchase and small supermarkets [11][12] - By July 5, 2025, Meituan reported over 120 million daily orders, with over 100 million coming from food delivery, indicating a strong market position [15][28] Group 3 - Alibaba's entry into the market with Taobao Flash Purchase in April 2025, which quickly surpassed 60 million daily orders, indicates a significant competitive threat to both JD.com and Meituan [8][9] - The integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into Alibaba's e-commerce group reflects a strategic move to enhance its instant delivery capabilities [8][25] - The competition has intensified, with Meituan, JD.com, and Alibaba all vying for dominance in the instant retail space, leading to a significant increase in daily order volumes across platforms [15][29] Group 4 - Meituan's concept of "instant retail" was first introduced in 2021, predicting a market size exceeding 1 trillion yuan within five years, with a focus on meeting immediate consumer needs [20][21] - Meituan Flash Purchase has achieved a scale of 175 billion yuan in the past year, with expectations to exceed 400 billion yuan by 2026 [21][22] - The competition is characterized by a shift from traditional food delivery to a broader instant retail model, with all three companies focusing on enhancing their logistics and delivery capabilities [29][30] Group 5 - The ongoing battle for market share in instant retail is marked by aggressive strategies from JD.com and Alibaba, who view Meituan as a significant competitor [30][32] - Meituan's strategy of "30-minute delivery of everything" poses a direct challenge to traditional retail models, potentially disrupting the market for JD.com and Alibaba [32][33] - The competition is expected to be prolonged and intense, with all players aiming to secure their positions in the rapidly evolving instant retail landscape [30][33]

新一轮周末的"外卖大战"它又来了！ 延续上周末的外卖狂欢，7月12日，美团外卖、淘宝闪购（饿了么）等平台再次分别发放外卖大额券。 7月12日下午，#免费奶茶 冲上热搜第一。 多款奶茶咖啡0元购 随后，记者打开淘宝闪购，又收到满18.8元减18.8元、满20元减10元等多张满减力度不等的大额优惠券。记者尝试下单发现，一杯原价19元的 奶茶，在平台大额红包加持下，最终仅需支付1.2元。 | | 初恋玫瑰青提-中杯 | 实付 ¥1.14 | | --- | --- | --- | | 恐致現實 爆珠) | 中杯 / 少冰 / 三分糖 / 标准(含马蹄爆 | ¥19 | | × 1 | | | | 打包费 ♡ | | 实付 ¥0.06 | | 配送费 | | 实付 ¥0 | | | | ¥3.6 | | | 总优惠¥22.4 实付款¥1.2 ^ | | | 总价 | | 23.6 | | 配送费优惠 | | - ¥ 3.6 | | 饿了么红包(惊喜爆红包) | | - ¥ 18.8 | 记者打开美团， 随即收到"0元外卖已到账"的弹窗， 点开即领取了0元喝饮品、0元喝瑞幸、古茗鲜活柠檬水兑换券3张到店自取优惠券，以及 ...

京东则于7月11日下午发文宣布， 京东外卖请全国用户吃品质小龙虾， 文中说明， 认准京东App"秒送"频道， 品质小龙虾 单份仅售16.18元 ， 每晚10万份， 无套路不拼不凑。 修正一周之后，新一轮的"外卖补贴大战"在本周末重燃战火。 社交媒体上充斥着低价甚至免单的咖啡奶茶订单 。这场由阿里巴巴旗下淘宝闪购升级的战火，正迫使行业巨头美团、京东悉数卷入。 澎湃新闻记者发现， 美团和淘宝闪购分别宣布周末补贴继续，美团发文称"周六，快乐继续"，淘宝闪购则表示"188元大券包，五顿我全包！" 澎湃报道称， 7月12日，不少网友在社交平台晒出新一轮的外卖补贴"战绩"，包括低价甚至是 免单的咖啡茶饮。 据网友反馈，美团在这个周末送出了 多个线 下咖啡茶饮的通兑券，但需要自取 ， 淘宝闪购则依旧发放188元的红包 ，包括满38减18.8的午餐外卖红包，不过" 免单卡"仍需要消费者随机抽取获得 。 见闻君在微博上也见到多位网友分享的免单的咖啡茶饮券。 一位美团众包骑手告诉澎湃新闻记者，接近中午，他看到 上海的沪上阿姨等知名奶茶门店已经开始爆单。 澎湃新闻记者还了解到， 阿里试图再造一个全民参与的促销节日"超级星期六" ： ...

Group 1 - The new round of "takeaway subsidy war" has reignited, initiated by Alibaba's Taobao Flash Purchase, forcing industry giants Meituan and JD to respond [1] - Alibaba announced a 50 billion RMB investment in subsidies for takeaway and instant retail over the next 12 months, leading to a chain reaction in the market [1] - As of early July, Meituan's daily order volume reached a record high of 120 million, while Alibaba's daily order volume reached 80 million within two months [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley believes that the competitive initiative has shifted to Alibaba, which has significant financial resources, including nearly 100 billion RMB in free cash flow and close to 600 billion RMB in cash equivalents by the end of March 2025 [2] - This financial strength positions Alibaba favorably in the ongoing consumption battle, creating significant competitive pressure on Meituan and JD [2] Group 3 - The intense "burning money" competition raises the question of whether such investments are worthwhile, depending on the long-term potential of the instant retail market [3] - Morgan Stanley presented two scenarios: if the instant retail market reaches 4 trillion RMB by 2030, the current investment is justified; if it only reaches half that, the investment appears overly aggressive [3][4] - Alibaba's substantial cash reserves and free cash flow give it a competitive edge, while Meituan and JD face challenges [3] Group 4 - In an optimistic scenario, the instant retail market's GMV is projected to reach 4 trillion RMB by 2030, with industry profits at 81 billion RMB [4] - In a pessimistic scenario, if the market's long-term GMV is only 2 trillion RMB, the terminal value would drop to 338 billion RMB, making the first year's total loss potentially reach 85 billion RMB [5] Group 5 - Prior to the intensified competition, Meituan held approximately 45% market share, with Ele.me (Alibaba's platform) at 21% and JD at 5% [6] - Despite increased competition, Meituan is likely to maintain its market leadership, although its market share may decline [6] - Instant retail growth will be incremental for Meituan, while it will cannibalize traditional e-commerce for Alibaba and JD [6] Group 6 - The investment expansion will directly impact short-term profitability, leading to stock price pressure for all involved companies [7] - Morgan Stanley predicts that Alibaba, Meituan, and JD's stock prices will face downward pressure in the next 3 to 6 months due to lowered profit expectations [7] Group 7 - Morgan Stanley has significantly lowered its adjusted EPS forecasts for Alibaba for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 22% and 11%, respectively, and reduced Meituan's operating profit forecast for 2025 by 15% [9] - Target prices for Alibaba have been adjusted downwards, with the US target price reduced from $170 to $140 and the Hong Kong target price from HKD 165 to HKD 135 [9] - Meituan's target price has also been lowered from HKD 160 to HKD 150 while maintaining an "overweight" rating [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the resurgence of intense competition in the food delivery market in China, reminiscent of the fierce battles from a decade ago, driven by changing strategic goals among major players [4][30][54] - The focus has shifted from merely competing for market share in food delivery to controlling the broader infrastructure of instant delivery services, which encompasses a wider range of products beyond just food [25][28][56] Group 1: Historical Context - The food delivery market in China has evolved significantly over the past decade, with major players like Meituan, Ele.me, and Baidu competing aggressively for user acquisition through subsidies and promotions [2][10][19] - Initial competition was characterized by heavy spending on subsidies to attract users, with Meituan and Ele.me burning billions to establish their market presence [2][3][8] - The market saw a temporary peace as companies shifted focus towards profitability and sustainable growth, moving away from the "burn money" model [3][21] Group 2: Recent Developments - On July 5, 2025, a significant escalation occurred with Taobao Flash Sale launching a major offensive against Meituan, leading to record-high order volumes in the food delivery sector [4][6][7] - The total daily orders in the food delivery market reached a record 200 million, with Meituan reporting 120 million and Taobao Flash Sale exceeding 80 million orders on the same day [6][7] - The intense competition resulted in estimated combined losses exceeding 1 billion yuan for both companies on that day [7] Group 3: Strategic Shifts - The competition has evolved from a focus on food delivery to a broader battle for control over the instant delivery infrastructure, which includes various consumer goods [25][28][29] - Companies are now vying to establish themselves as the default delivery network for all types of products, not just food, indicating a strategic shift in the market landscape [26][28] - The change in strategic focus has led to a renewed willingness to incur losses in pursuit of long-term market dominance [30][41] Group 4: Consumer Perspective - From a consumer standpoint, the increase in subsidies and promotions has become a normalized expectation, with little awareness of the underlying competitive dynamics [43][46] - The perception of the food delivery service has shifted from a novel convenience to an expected norm, with consumers now viewing the ongoing subsidy wars as a means to benefit from lower prices [47][48] - The relationship between platforms and consumers has transformed into a transactional one, where consumers are more focused on immediate benefits rather than the broader implications of the competition [48][49]

Core Insights - The recent surge in food delivery orders is attributed to a sudden increase in subsidies from platforms like Alibaba and JD, leading to a chaotic situation for restaurants and delivery personnel [1][3][4] - The competition among major platforms, including Alibaba, JD, and Meituan, has intensified, resulting in significant fluctuations in order volumes and delivery rider earnings [3][11][15] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The weekend's order spike was not coincidental; all three major food delivery platforms have been investing resources since Q1, expanding market capacity and increasing consumer engagement [4][10] - The introduction of a promotional event called "Super Saturday" by Alibaba aims to create a new consumer holiday, offering substantial cash redemptions for food delivery [3][12] Group 2: Financial Implications - Following the weekend's subsidy battle, stocks of various food and beverage companies surged, with Cha Bai Dao rising by 15% and Nayuki Tea by over 10% [5] - Despite the apparent increase in order volume, many merchants express concerns about the sustainability of profits due to high fixed costs and the potential for reduced orders once subsidies diminish [5][6] Group 3: Delivery Riders' Perspective - Delivery riders have experienced a temporary boost in earnings due to subsidies, but they face uncertainty as the platforms' subsidy policies fluctuate unpredictably [7][9] - The influx of new riders attracted by high subsidies may lead to increased competition and pressure on earnings once the promotional activities cease [9][10] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competition is not limited to food delivery; it extends to the broader instant retail market, with platforms vying for consumer attention and market share [11][15] - New entrants like Pinduoduo are also testing the waters in the instant delivery space, indicating that the battle for market dominance is far from over [15]

Group 1 - The core strategy for food delivery platforms remains low-price competition, with Meituan recently launching "0 Yuan Purchase" coupons, leading to a record daily order volume of over 120 million [1] - Meituan's CEO Wang Xing emphasized the commitment to winning the competition, indicating that the company is willing to invest heavily, with estimates suggesting a monthly burn rate of nearly 20 billion yuan [1] - JD.com has also made strides in the food delivery sector, achieving over 25 million daily orders within four months of launching its delivery service, supported by a "Double Hundred Plan" that allocates over 10 billion yuan to boost brand sales [6][7] Group 2 - JD.com aims to integrate its food delivery service within its overall ecosystem, enhancing synergies with existing retail operations and expanding instant delivery services for various product categories [7] - Alibaba's "Taobao Flash Purchase" initiative is designed to drive traffic to its broader instant retail business, with significant subsidies leading to substantial growth in sales for participating brands [12][13] - The competition among food delivery platforms has led to increased consumer expectations regarding price, quality, and service, resulting in lower brand loyalty as consumers switch between platforms for better deals [17]