Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [1][3] Core Views - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns while balancing volume and quality, showcasing its leading value in the industry [1] - ZTO Express is expected to benefit from the high-quality development phase of the e-commerce express delivery industry, with stable pricing and increased market share for leading companies [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, adjusted net profit was CNY 2.695 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with an adjusted net profit per ticket of CNY 0.26, down by CNY 0.03 [1] - For the full year 2025, adjusted net profit totaled CNY 9.51 billion, a decline of 6.3%, with an adjusted net profit per ticket of CNY 0.25, down 17.2% [1] - The company completed a business volume of 10.56 billion packages in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, surpassing the industry growth rate by 4.2 percentage points [1] - The total package volume for 2025 reached 38.52 billion, up 13.3% year-on-year, maintaining a market share of 19.4% [1] Revenue and Cost Analysis - In Q4 2025, the average revenue per ticket was CNY 1.35, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year, primarily due to price increases for direct customers [2] - The average cost per ticket in Q4 2025 was CNY 1.01, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, while transportation costs decreased by 8.9% [2] - The company expects to achieve a package volume of 42.37 to 43.52 billion in 2026, representing a growth of 10% to 13% [2] Shareholder Returns - ZTO Express announced a semi-annual dividend of USD 0.39 per share, maintaining a policy of distributing dividends at least 40% of the previous year's adjusted net profit [2] - The company plans to repurchase up to USD 1.5 billion in shares over the next two years [2] Future Projections - The report projects adjusted net profits for 2026 to be CNY 11.05 billion, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12.0 [4] - The target price for ZTO Express is set at HKD 242, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price of HKD 196.40 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 49.1 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.9%, with a net profit of 9.1 billion RMB, up 3.0% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in single-ticket profitability and product optimization, enhancing long-term competitiveness [7] - The forecasted revenues for 2026-2028 are 55.75 billion RMB, 62.20 billion RMB, and 68.79 billion RMB respectively, with net profits of 10.81 billion RMB, 12.46 billion RMB, and 14.30 billion RMB [7] Financial Performance - Revenue growth rates are projected at 15.26% for 2024, 10.88% for 2025, 13.54% for 2026, 11.58% for 2027, and 10.60% for 2028 [6] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 10.95 RMB in 2024 to 18.57 RMB in 2028 [6] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 12.15 in 2024 to 9.30 in 2028, indicating potential valuation improvement [6] Market Performance - The company’s stock price closed at 196.40 HKD on March 18, 2026 [2] - The company has shown a market performance of -21% over the last 12 months compared to the Hang Seng Index [4]

| 项目 | 2026 | 年 | 2 月 | | 同比变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 快递产品收入（亿元） | | | | 44.52 | 3.76% | | 业务完成量（亿票） | | | | 18.57 | 0.59% | | 快递产品单票收入（元） | | | | 2.40 | 3.15% | 上述数据未经审计，敬请广大投资者注意投资风险。 特此公告。 圆通速递股份有限公司 证券代码：600233 证券简称：圆通速递 公告编号：临 2026-013 圆通速递股份有限公司 2026 年 2 月快递业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事局及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 圆通速递股份有限公司 2026 年 2 月快递业务主要经营数据如下： 董事局 2026 年 3 月 20 日 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [1][3] Core Views - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns while balancing quality and quantity, showcasing its leading value in the industry [1] - ZTO Express is expected to benefit from the high-quality development phase of the e-commerce express delivery industry, with stable pricing and increased market share for leading companies [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2025, adjusted net profit was CNY 2.695 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with an adjusted net profit per ticket of CNY 0.26, down 0.03 from the previous year [1] - For the full year 2025, adjusted net profit totaled CNY 9.51 billion, a decline of 6.3%, with an adjusted net profit per ticket of CNY 0.25, down 17.2% [1] - The company completed a total package volume of 38.52 billion pieces in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, maintaining a market share of 19.4% [1] Revenue and Cost Analysis - In Q4 2025, the average revenue per ticket was CNY 1.35, up 2.9% year-on-year, while the average cost per ticket was CNY 1.01, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year [2] - The company expects a package volume of 42.37 to 43.52 billion pieces in 2026, representing a growth of 10% to 13% [2] Shareholder Returns and Buyback Plans - ZTO Express announced a semi-annual dividend of USD 0.39 per share, with a policy to maintain a payout ratio of no less than 40% of the previous year's adjusted net profit [2] - The company plans to repurchase up to USD 1.5 billion in shares over the next two years [2] Future Profitability Projections - The report projects adjusted net profits for 2026 to be CNY 11.05 billion, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12.0 [4] - The target price for ZTO Express is set at HKD 242, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price of HKD 196.40 [5]

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,025, up 0.61% for the day and 1.54% year-to-date [1] - The US markets experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down 1.36% and the Dow Jones down 1.63% [3] - The offshore RMB exchange rate remained weak, closing around 6.9 [3] Industry Insights Semiconductor Industry - The OFC 2026 highlighted structural changes in the industry driven by AI computing expansion, leading to a comprehensive restructuring of data center interconnect architectures [4] - The focus is on diverse interconnect solutions to meet the growing demands for computing power and system efficiency, with pluggable optical modules remaining a core mainstream solution [4] Company Analysis Tencent (700 HK) - Tencent reported a 13% year-on-year revenue growth to RMB 194.4 billion for Q4 2025, with non-IFRS operating profit up 17% to RMB 69.5 billion, aligning with Bloomberg consensus [4] - The company plans to double its AI product investment in FY26 to over RMB 36 billion, which may impact short-term profit growth but is expected to strengthen its core business [4] Kingdee International (268 HK) - Kingdee achieved a revenue of RMB 7 billion in 2025, a 12% increase year-on-year, meeting Bloomberg expectations [5] - The company reported a net profit of RMB 92.9 million, lower than the consensus estimate, but demonstrates its commitment to AI transformation [5] ZTO Express (ZTO US/2057 HK) - ZTO's net profit for 2025 grew by 3% to RMB 9.08 billion, with a guidance for 2026 package volume growth of 10-13% [6] - The company approved a new stock buyback plan with a budget of up to $1.5 billion over the next two years, aiming for shareholder returns of at least 50% of adjusted net profit [7] Geely Automobile (175 HK) - Geely reported a 22% revenue growth to approximately RMB 106 billion for Q4 2025, with a quarterly gross margin of 16.9% [8] - The company expects its gross margin to improve to 17.4% in 2026, supported by scale effects and export growth [8]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closing at 26,025.42 points and 8,835.50 points, respectively, up by 0.6% and 0.1% [1] - Market turnover was HKD 240.4 billion, a decrease of 10.4% from the previous day's HKD 268.3 billion, indicating cautious sentiment among some investors [1] - In sector performance, composite enterprises, industrial, and financial indices rose by 2.0%, 1.7%, and 1.1%, while telecommunications, consumer staples, and energy sectors fell by 0.1%, 0.2%, and 0.7% [1] U.S. Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw a decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at 46,225 points, down by 1.6% [2] - The Hang Seng Index futures closed at 25,479 points, indicating a discount of 546 points, suggesting pressure on the Hong Kong market today [2] Macroeconomic Dynamics - The U.S. Federal Funds Rate remains unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations [3] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for February increased by 3.4% year-on-year, surpassing January's 2.9% and market forecasts of 2.9% [3] - Factory orders in the U.S. rose by 0.1% month-on-month in February, an improvement from January's -0.4%, consistent with market predictions [3] Automotive Sector Insights - Geely Automobile (175 HK) reported a 39.0% year-on-year increase in sales for 2025, with total revenue up by 25.1% and a core net profit of RMB 14.41 billion, reflecting a 36% increase [4] - The company plans a dividend payout ratio of approximately 29%, with a year-on-year increase of 51% in the dividend per share [4] - Geely's sales target for 2026 is set at 3.45 million units, a 14% increase year-on-year, with capital expenditure expected to decrease from RMB 17.9 billion to RMB 16 billion [4] Healthcare Sector Developments - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 1.1%, with Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (9995 HK) seeing a 7.4% increase in stock price following the announcement of multiple original research results at the 2026 EAU [4] - Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK) also experienced a stock price increase of 5.8% after reporting a reduction in losses for 2025 [4] New Energy and Utilities Sector Performance - The new energy and utilities sector generally saw gains, except for photovoltaic and nuclear energy [5] - Electric equipment stocks performed well, with Weisheng Holdings (3393 HK) rising by 8.6% after securing a supply contract worth approximately RMB 180 million with Brazil's CEMIG [5] - The thermal power sector also experienced increases, with Huaneng International (902 HK), Datang Power (991 HK), and Huadian International (1071 HK) rising between 0.5% and 2.3% [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Transportation and logistics sectors, including shipping, rail, air travel, and express delivery services - **Geopolitical Context**: The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is impacting shipping, rail, and hazardous materials logistics positively, while high oil prices are increasing operational costs across various transport sectors Key Points and Arguments Shipping and Logistics - **Shipping Industry**: The daily passage through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly, affecting 31% of global oil shipping exports and 5% of container shipping, leading to a re-evaluation of shipping rates and a potential restructuring of shipping networks [1][2] - **Rail Transport**: High oil prices are increasing road transport costs, making rail transport more attractive. The Daqin Railway is expected to benefit from increased coal transport demand due to rising coal prices linked to oil price increases [1][2] - **Hazardous Materials Logistics**: Companies with a high percentage of chemical and oil products in their storage are likely to benefit from increased demand for stockpiling, potentially raising warehouse rental rates [3] Air Travel - **Cost Pressures**: The aviation sector is facing significant cost pressures due to rising fuel prices, with fuel costs accounting for approximately 35% of total operating costs. The expected increase in fuel surcharges could reach 170-180 RMB per flight segment [6][17] - **Market Dynamics**: The geopolitical situation is creating opportunities for Chinese airlines as travelers seek alternatives to Middle Eastern hubs, potentially increasing international passenger volumes by 13% if 25% of transit passengers shift to Chinese carriers [18][19] Express Delivery - **Market Trends**: The express delivery sector is experiencing a "reverse involution" trend, with prices in key areas like Yiwu increasing. Major companies like YTO and ZTO are expected to gain competitive advantages [1][5] Investment Recommendations - **Stock Selection**: It is recommended to focus on stocks with low correlation to Middle Eastern geopolitical risks and those with defensive attributes, such as Anhui Expressway and Shenzhen International. SF Express is highlighted for its alignment with high-quality growth trends in the express delivery sector [7] - **Shipping vs. Oil Transport**: The recommendation is to prioritize container shipping over oil transport due to lower expected volatility and higher certainty in returns, even amidst geopolitical tensions [8] Market Conditions - **Current Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the transportation sector is cautious, with a preference for rail over road transport due to the latter's vulnerability to rising fuel costs. The express delivery sector shows signs of recovery, while air travel is under pressure from fuel costs [15][20] Airport Operations - **White Cloud Airport**: A new duty-free agreement has been signed with a commission rate reduced to 21%, which is expected to positively impact profits, although the overall profit elasticity will depend on the recovery of duty-free sales [22][23] Future Outlook - **Long-term Adjustments**: The geopolitical situation is expected to lead to profound adjustments in global logistics networks, with potential shifts in trade routes and increased congestion at major ports [4][10] Risks and Challenges - **Cost Transferability**: The ability of the air, road, and express delivery sectors to pass on increased costs to consumers is limited due to weak supply-demand dynamics, which may suppress market demand if oil prices remain high [2][6] Additional Important Insights - **Rail Freight Benefits**: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is driving up coal prices in the Asia-Pacific region, benefiting rail freight operations like the Daqin Railway [10] - **Container Transport Opportunities**: The potential shift from sea to rail transport for high-value goods due to increased shipping costs could benefit the China-Europe Railway Express [11] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the transportation and logistics sectors.

记者丨 张嘉钰 编辑丨刘雪莹 周三（3月18日），美国三大股指全线收跌，结束两连涨。道指跌1.63%，报46225.15点，跌近800点；标普500跌1.36%，报6624.70点，双双 收于去年11月以来新低；纳指跌1.46%。 大型科技股集体下跌，万得美国科技七巨头指数下跌1.47%。个股方面，亚马逊跌超2%，微软跌近2%，特斯拉、苹果、脸书、谷歌跌超1%， 英伟达跌0.84%。 芯片股多数下跌，费城半导体指数跌0.53%，迈威尔科技跌超3%，阿斯麦跌逾2%，德州仪器、台积电跌超1%；英特尔涨超2%，超威半导体涨 逾1%。 国际油价持续走高，纽约期油涨2.54%，报97.88美元/桶，布伦特原油涨超2%报105.06美元/桶。 | NYMEX WTI | | ICE轻质低硫 | | --- | --- | --- | | 97.88 | 105.06 | 79.06 | | +2.42 | | | | INE原油 INE低硫燃料 NYMEX天然 | | | | 788.1 | 6139 | 3.194 | | +36.9 | | | 加密货币市场遭抛售。比特币跳水4.3%、跌回7.1万美元附近，以太坊下挫 ...

Group 1: Automotive Industry Performance - Geely Automobile reported a 39% year-on-year increase in total sales for 2025, with total revenue rising 25% to RMB 345.2 billion, achieving a historical high [1] - The net profit for Geely in 2025 was RMB 16.63 billion, a 2% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 16.6%, up 0.1% [1] - Chery Automobile's revenue for 2025 increased by 11.3% to RMB 300.29 billion, with net profit rising from RMB 14.33 billion to RMB 19.51 billion [1][2] Group 2: Other Industry Leaders' Performance - China Tower reported a 2.7% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2025, reaching RMB 100.41 billion, with a net profit of RMB 11.63 billion, up 8.4% [3] - ZTO Express saw its revenue grow by 10.9% to RMB 49.10 billion for 2025, driven by increased online consumption and a shift towards higher-value customer segments [3] Group 3: Profit Distribution and Shareholder Returns - China Tower proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.32539 per share, with a total dividend payout ratio of 77% for the year [4][5] - Geely Automobile recommended a final dividend of HKD 0.50 per share for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025 [5] - Chery Automobile's board proposed a final cash dividend of RMB 0.86 per share [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company "闪送" has successfully turned a profit in 2025, but its core business faces significant survival challenges due to intensified competition in the same-city delivery market [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, "闪送" reported a net profit of 22.5 million RMB, compared to a net loss of 294 million RMB in Q4 2024 [2]. - For the entire year of 2025, the net profit reached 109.4 million RMB, a turnaround from a net loss of 146.5 million RMB in 2024 [2]. - Revenue for Q4 2025 was 1.0013 billion RMB, down from 1.0289 billion RMB in Q4 2024, while total revenue for 2025 was 3.9921 billion RMB, a decrease of 10.66% from 4.4682 billion RMB in 2024 [3]. Order Volume and Market Competition - The total number of orders completed in 2025 was 249.2 million, a decline of 10.10% compared to 277.2 million in 2024 [3]. - The increase in registered riders to 3.1 million by the end of 2025, up from 2.8 million in 2024, did not translate into more orders, indicating heightened competition among riders [3]. - The competitive landscape is dominated by major players like Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan, which are aggressively expanding their market presence in instant retail, leaving less room for smaller platforms like "闪送" [4]. Strategic Focus and Future Challenges - "闪送" is focusing on maintaining profitability amidst fierce competition, with a reported non-GAAP net profit of 199.4 million RMB for 2025 [4]. - The company faces three main challenges: maintaining order volume without engaging in price wars, identifying new revenue growth points, and rebuilding its narrative in the public market [5]. - The board has approved an extension of a $30 million share buyback plan, and the stock price rose by 20.76% to $2.85, although it remains over 80% below its IPO valuation [5].