Group 1 - The economic downturn in South Korea has led to a significant increase in business closures, with the number of reported closures surpassing 1 million for the first time since 1995, reaching 1,008,200 [1] - The business closure rate has risen for two consecutive years, reaching 9.04% in 2024, indicating that nearly 1 in 10 businesses ceased operations that year [1] - Poor business conditions are the primary reason for closures, with 506,200 businesses citing this as their reason, accounting for 50.2% of all closures, marking the highest proportion since 2010 [1] Group 2 - The retail and restaurant sectors are particularly affected, together accounting for approximately 45% of total business closures, with 299,600 retail businesses and 15.2% from the restaurant industry [1] - The overdue loan rate for vulnerable individual business owners reached 12.24% by the first quarter of 2025, the highest level since Q2 2013 [1] - The South Korean government has introduced a supplementary budget of 31.8 trillion KRW (approximately 100 billion CNY) to support livelihoods, including consumer vouchers aimed at boosting household spending [2] Group 3 - Despite government support measures, there is a consensus that these are temporary fixes and not structural solutions to the ongoing issues faced by individual business owners [2] - Calls for a systematic "exit strategy" to address the oversupply of individual businesses have emerged, highlighting the need for long-term institutional design to tackle structural challenges [2] - The competitive landscape for individual businesses is characterized by a cycle of high entrepreneurship and high failure rates, exacerbated by an aging population and insufficient job creation [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the implications of stablecoins and their relationship with monetary sovereignty, particularly focusing on Hong Kong's approach to stablecoins and the control of currency issuance [2][3][4] - It highlights the competitive dynamics between traditional financial systems, such as SWIFT, and emerging stablecoin frameworks, suggesting that Hong Kong's move could disrupt the existing global settlement systems [7][18] - The article emphasizes the challenges faced by the RMB in achieving internationalization due to entrenched interests in the dollar system, indicating that the path to RMB's global acceptance is fraught with obstacles [13][14] Group 2 - The article critiques the SWIFT system, describing it as outdated and inefficient, yet still dominant due to its established reputation and the backing of powerful interest groups [10][12] - It points out that major corporations like Walmart and Amazon are exploring stablecoins for their transactions, which could undermine the traditional dollar settlement system [16][17] - The potential for stablecoins to create an alternative international settlement system is discussed, with the possibility of multiple forces coexisting in the market rather than a complete replacement of SWIFT [19][22]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Supply-Side Reform - The current supply-side adjustment in China is expected to be milder compared to the previous round, but may take longer and involve a wider range of industries[2] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to guide enterprises to improve product quality and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which is crucial for balancing supply and demand[4] - Historical experiences indicate that large-scale capacity reduction leads to a rapid decline in production factor costs and enhances the competitiveness of leading enterprises, ultimately stabilizing prices[5] Group 2: Demand-Side Measures and Consumer Confidence - Recent policies, such as birth subsidies and trade-in incentives, are being implemented to alleviate short-term financial pressures on families and enhance their willingness to have children[6] - Fiscal transfer payments are most effective in boosting long-term consumption when targeted at financially constrained households, as they have a higher marginal propensity to consume[7] - A stable and sustainable economic growth requires simultaneous efforts on both supply and demand sides, ensuring policy strength and predictability[8] Group 3: Asset Prices and Economic Impact - The interaction between rising asset prices and the real economy is still in its early stages, with recent "anti-involution" policies potentially improving fundamental expectations[9] - The ongoing expansion of active credit is crucial for maintaining a strong performance in equity markets, with a focus on the stability of financing balances across society[11] - Historical cases show that asset price increases can lead to recovery in the real sector demand, but also risk tightening regulations if bubbles form[10] Group 4: U.S. Economic Resilience - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with June's non-farm employment increasing by 147,000, slightly above expectations[13] - The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stable labor market[16] - Market expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts have slightly decreased, with anticipated cuts of approximately 54 basis points later in the year[17]

核心观点： 证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 07 月 07 日 美国 6 月非农：就业韧性超预期之下的结构性风险 [Table_Author] 杨见一 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:yangjianyi@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320525050001 证书:S1320523020004 美国 6 月非农新增 14.7 万人，大幅超出预期的 10.6 万人；失业率回落至 4.1%，超出预期的 4.3%。家庭调查（CPS）口径的劳动力人数下降 13 万人，劳动参与率下降至 62.3%，是失业率下滑的原因之一。数据公布同 时，劳工部调整 4-5 月新增非农就业数据，4 月由初值公布的 17.7 万下调 至 15.8 万人（但比二次公布的 14.7 万人有所增加），5 月由初值的 13.9 万上修至 14.4 万，合计下修 1.4 万人，修订后近三月平均新增就业 15 万 人。6 月美国劳动力市场表现好于市场预期，年内降息路径抬升，市场押 注 7 月不降息，9 月、12 月各降息一次。 6 月非农新增就业高增的主要原因是政府就业拉动；私人部门就业 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the core contradiction throughout the upstream, midstream, and downstream industries is the "structural gap during the new - old kinetic energy conversion period." In the first half of the year, the industry was affected by external uncertainties, with intensified internal differentiation, and overall prosperity relied on policy support. In the second half of the year, with the "two new" policies further boosting domestic demand and upgrading the industrial structure, the industry is expected to achieve a systematic leap from "quantity" to "quality" expansion [2][7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - **Upstream Materials**: In H1 2025, raw material prices were under pressure due to weak demand and Sino - US trade conflicts, showing significant differentiation. In H2, the structural differentiation will continue. Enterprises should focus on capacity elimination, tariff negotiations, and climate risks [8]. - **Midstream Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, it presented a differentiated pattern of "traditional under pressure, high - tech doing well." In H2, policies will support both demand and supply - side reforms, and traditional manufacturing is expected to break through cost dilemmas through intelligent and digital transformation [8]. - **Downstream Consumption**: In H1 2025, it showed a "weak recovery" pattern. In H2, the consumption market will continue to be structurally differentiated, and the recovery highly depends on policy implementation efficiency and business model innovation [9][10]. Upstream: Raw Material Price Fluctuations - **H1 2025 Situation**: Raw material prices were under pressure. Metal mining showed a divergence between black and non - ferrous metals; chemical raw materials had multi - directional fluctuations; energy sources like crude oil and coal were more differentiated; most agricultural products were at near - five - year lows [8][15]. - **H2 2025 Outlook**: The price differentiation will continue. Traditional raw materials' rebound depends on supply - side reforms and policy support, while emerging demand - driven products are more resilient. Enterprises should focus on capacity elimination, tariff reviews, and extreme weather [15][16]. Midstream: Short - term Stabilization, Continued New - Old Kinetic Energy Conversion - **Overall Situation**: In H1 2025, the manufacturing industry was affected by external factors, with traditional manufacturing under pressure and high - tech manufacturing supported by policies. After the tariff war, there was short - term stabilization, and both external and internal demands recovered to some extent [43][53]. - **Traditional Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, profits declined due to over - capacity and weak demand. In H2, policies will expand to more traditional manufacturing sectors, promoting transformation and efficiency improvement [59][75]. - **High - tech Manufacturing**: In H1 2025, it recovered significantly compared to the beginning of the year, benefiting from strong policy support. In H2, it is expected to continue to improve [69][75]. Downstream: Intensified Retail Differentiation, Weak Real Estate Recovery - **Retail Industry**: In H1 2025, online e - commerce grew due to the "trade - in" policy, while traditional physical retail was under pressure. In H2, the differentiation will continue, with emerging formats having growth potential and traditional retail relying on policy and innovation [82][93]. - **Leasing Industry**: In H1 2025, it was in a downturn. In H2, the "price - for - volume" trend will continue, and the de - stocking of commercial land will continue [92][93]. - **Real Estate Industry**: In H1 2025, it achieved "weak stabilization" under policy support. In H2, it is expected to continue to recover slowly with further policy optimization and improved supply - demand balance [99][115].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a recovery in the leasing market for Grade A office spaces in Guangzhou during the first half of 2025, with increased inquiry and viewing activity compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The supply of Grade A office spaces in Guangzhou slowed down in Q2 2025, with only one new project delivered, leading to a total stock of 6.937 million square meters [1] - The net absorption in the city recorded 152,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%, while the vacancy rate increased by 0.9 percentage points to 19.8% [1] Group 2 - In terms of regional performance, Haizhu District's Pazhou became the most active leasing area in Q2, with a vacancy rate decreasing by 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 3.6 percentage points year-on-year to 23.2% [1] - The average rent for office spaces in the city decreased by 1.4% to 123.5 yuan per square meter per month, with the decline narrowing by 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] - The TMT sector led the leasing demand with a 30.2% share of the total leased area, followed by the financial sector at 16.8% and trade and retail at 16.3% [2] Group 3 - The report highlights the potential of emerging business districts, particularly Guangzhou International Financial City, where infrastructure improvements are attracting financial institutions to establish headquarters [2] - The establishment of a conducive office environment in new business districts is expected to enhance market attention and resource attraction [2]

证 券 研 究 报 告 供需有待 【宏观快评】 经济或呈现低波运行——6 月经济数据前瞻 主要观点 核心观点：展望 6月及二季度，经济或呈现低波运行特征。首先，从GDP数 据来看，受益于国内的两新政策、出口的韧性，生产端保持较快增长。预计 2 季度全部工业生产增速 5.9%左右，预计 2季度 GDP增速在 5.3%左右，接近 1季度的 5.4%。其次，受益于政府债发行的前值，社融增速稳中有升，预计6 月末抬升至 8.8%左右。再次，市场较为关注的出口数据，增速或边际放缓， 但仍有韧性，预计 6 月出口同比在 3.5%左右。 后续来看，关注重心在可能带来经济走势出现变化的几个方向。包括美国与各 国的关税谈判进展、地产的库存去化、"反内卷"在供给端的约束等。 一、GDP：预计 2 季度 GDP 增速在 5.3%左右 主要原因来看：1）受益于设备更新、以旧换新、出口韧性，工业生产在 2 季 度维持偏强态势。预计 2 季度全部工业（规上+规下）增速在 5.9%左右。2） 受益于以旧换新，零售环节增速继续回升，预计批发零售业2季度增速为6.8% 左右，高于 1 季度的 5.8%。3）信息业与租赁服务业，预计维持高增长。 ...

Group 1: Summer Tourism Development - The summer tourism sector is thriving, with various regions leveraging ecological and cultural resources to develop unique summer vacation experiences, significantly boosting the "cooling economy" [1][2] - The Changbai Mountain Huamei Resort in Jilin Province anticipates over 300,000 visitors this summer, showcasing the growing popularity of summer destinations [2] - Diverse summer travel options are emerging across China, with regions like Northeast and Northwest becoming preferred destinations, leading to a notable increase in hotel bookings [2] Group 2: Consumer Electronics and Cooling Products - High temperatures and supportive government policies are driving sales of cooling appliances, with air conditioners and fans seeing a surge in demand [3] - National subsidies have significantly impacted consumer behavior, with over 80% of air conditioner sales being high-efficiency models [3] - Retailers are enhancing customer experience by offering comprehensive services, including free installation and bundled sales of cooling products [3] Group 3: Night Economy and Cultural Integration - The "Avenue of Aroma" commercial street in Chongqing has been revitalized to enhance the night economy, featuring over 20 brands and creating a social space for consumers [5] - Cultural performances and immersive experiences are attracting tourists, with initiatives like "cooling direct buses" connecting major transport hubs to cultural venues [5][6] - There is potential for further development of ice and snow culture during summer, which could attract visitors and prepare the market for winter activities [6]

Core Insights - Gree New Yuan Electronics Co., Ltd., Gree Electric Appliances Inc., and Gree New Yuan Electronics (Nanjing) Co., Ltd. have obtained a patent for a device that promotes the absorption of electrolytic liquid in electrolytic capacitors, with the patent granted on CN112802693B and applied for on January 1, 2021 [1][2]. Company Overview - Zhuhai Gree New Yuan Electronics Co., Ltd. was established in 1988 and is located in Zhuhai City, primarily engaged in the manufacturing of computers, communications, and other electronic devices. The company has a registered capital of 126.18 million RMB. It has invested in 2 companies, participated in 44 bidding projects, and holds 304 patents along with 31 administrative licenses [1]. - Zhuhai Gree Electric Appliances Inc. was founded in 1989 and is also based in Zhuhai City, focusing on the manufacturing of electrical machinery and equipment. The registered capital is 601,573.0878 million RMB. The company has invested in 101 enterprises, participated in 5,000 bidding projects, and possesses 5,000 trademark and patent records, in addition to 827 administrative licenses [1]. - Gree New Yuan Electronics (Nanjing) Co., Ltd. was established in 2018 and is located in Nanjing City, primarily engaged in retail. The registered capital is 10 million RMB. The company has participated in 2 bidding projects, holds 24 patents, and has 14 administrative licenses [2].

天眼查App显示，7月3日，罗马仕关联公司深圳罗马仕科技有限公司再度发生工商变更，雷 杏容卸任法定代表人、董事、经理， 由雷社杏接任 。 | 工商信息 历史工商信息> ● ◎ 查看工商快照 | | | | | 에 승규 | で天眼直 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 企业名称 | 深圳罗马仕科技有限公司 | | | | | | | 法定代表人 | 위 雷社杏 【 关联企业 8 | 登记状态 2 | 存续 | 天眼评分 ② | 68 # | | | | | 成立日期 | 2012-03-13 | | | | | 统一社会信用代码 2 | 91440300591898915P | 注册资本 2 | 600万人民币 | 文销资本 | 600万人民币 | | | 工商注册号 | 440301106062674 | 纳税人说别号 2 | 91440300591898915P | 组织机构代码 ⑦ | 59189891-2 | | | 萱业期限 | 2012-03-13 至 无固完期限 | 纳税人资质 | 一般纳税人 | 核准日期 | ● ア | | | 企业 ...