Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Core Viewpoints - Recent policy guidance has led to a rapid decline in post-slaughter weight, allowing for a rebalancing of volume and price, with positive expectations for pig prices [3] - The long-term perspective indicates that the bottom of the production capacity cycle is becoming clearer, suggesting a potential long-term profit upturn for the sector [3] - The report highlights investment opportunities in various segments, including pig farming, feed, and planting chains, as well as the pet food sector [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - In June, 13 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 16.2681 million pigs, a month-on-month increase of 2.65% and a year-on-year increase of 47.55% [2][13] - The average selling price of pigs decreased by approximately 3% month-on-month and about 20% year-on-year, with prices ranging from 13.23 to 15.57 yuan/kg [14][15] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in June was 125.06 kg, down 0.77 kg from May, indicating a trend towards reducing weight [17] Market Dynamics - The national average price for live pigs was 14.81 yuan/kg as of July 11, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.52% [28] - The demand for pork is weakening due to high temperatures affecting consumption and rising storage costs, leading to a gradual loosening of supply-demand dynamics [28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Juxing Agriculture, as well as companies in the feed and animal health sectors like Haida Group and Ruipu Biological [3] - In the planting chain, opportunities are highlighted for companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3] Other Segments - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous growth of leading companies [3]

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit of 3 million to 4.3 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from a loss of 47.98 million yuan in the previous year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 106.25% to 108.96% compared to the same period last year [1] - The basic earnings per share are estimated to be between 0 yuan and 0.01 yuan, compared to a loss of 0.07 yuan per share in the previous year [1] Group 2 - The significant increase in performance is driven by the implementation of the "three highs and three lows" technical strategy and the "four guarantees" product quality system, leading to improved product quality and competitiveness [1] - The company initiated several marketing campaigns in early 2025, which effectively stimulated the sales team's activity and enhanced customer loyalty, resulting in a notable increase in market share [1] - The company's feed sales volume increased by approximately 11.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, contributing positively to revenue growth [1] Group 3 - The company has strengthened accounts receivable management and credit control, leading to a significant decrease in expected credit impairment losses [1]

Group 1 - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 62.5 to 70.5 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 167% to 201% [1] - In Q1 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 28 million yuan, with Q2 projected to be between 34.5 to 42.5 million yuan, and a median estimate of 38.5 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 1144% [1] - The company's profit growth is primarily driven by an increase in the inventory of large-scale breeding companies through direct sales channels, leading to a significant rise in feed sales and revenue [1] Group 2 - The company plans to acquire equity in seven pig farming-related companies through a combination of issuing shares and cash payments, aiming to expand its business into the downstream breeding sector using a light asset model [1] - The company is expected to achieve rapid scale expansion by leveraging the existing production capacity and performance advantages of the acquisition targets, which will synergize with its feed business [1] - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 4.168, 4.802, and 5.160 billion yuan, with net profits attributable to shareholders of 164, 198, and 236 million yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 23.83, 19.76, and 16.57x, maintaining a "recommended" rating [2]

Group 1: Core Views - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, highlighting a favorable investment environment for livestock, pet, and pork industries [1][3][12] - The report emphasizes the potential reversal of the beef cycle in 2025, with expectations of rising prices driven by both domestic and international markets [14][21] - The pet industry is identified as a high-growth sector, benefiting from changing consumer demographics and increasing emotional spending [15][18] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations for the livestock sector include Guangming Meat Industry, a rare listed beef company with stable resources from New Zealand, and Muyuan Foods, a leading player in pig farming [1][3][18] - In the pet food sector, Zhongchong Co. is highlighted as a pioneer with synchronized growth in domestic and international markets [1][3][18] - For the pork industry, the report recommends companies such as DeKang Agriculture and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from improving cash flows and dividend ratios [1][3][16] Group 3: Market Trends and Data - As of June 2025, the average price of live pigs was 14.80 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.85% [2][21] - The report notes a decrease in the price of 7kg piglets to 433 yuan/head, down 13.95% month-on-month, indicating a cautious approach to industry expansion [2][21] - The poultry sector is experiencing increased supply, with expectations of demand recovery, particularly for yellow chickens, which are anticipated to benefit from domestic demand improvements [28][39]

Summary of Agricultural Sector Investment Strategy 2025 Industry Overview - The agricultural sector is experiencing a transition from cyclical growth to cyclical value, with large listed companies improving cash flow and industry profitability becoming differentiated. Leading companies are currently valued at historical lows, with potential for mid-to-long-term profit improvement and increased shareholder returns [1][3][4]. Key Points on Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is undergoing a transformation, with large groups gaining market share and demonstrating significant cost advantages. The industry is entering a phase where leading companies are expected to see rising return on equity (ROE) and increased free cash flow [2][3]. - Recommendations include major players such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Technology, and Dekang Holdings, which exhibit strong cost advantages and high profit realization rates [8]. Pet Food Sector Insights - The pet food sector is in a high-growth phase, with accelerating revenue growth and improved profitability. Leading brands are leveraging product formulation and channel investments to achieve rapid growth. Key recommendations include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. [5][9]. Feed Sector Recommendations - Haida Group is highlighted as a key investment in the feed sector, having achieved significant sales growth of 3 million tons in the first half of the year. Despite potential underperformance in earnings forecasts, the company's competitive position and long-term growth prospects remain strong [6][11]. Swine Farming Industry Dynamics - The swine farming industry has seen a rise in scale, with specialization becoming more pronounced. Large groups focus on breeding while smaller farms concentrate on fattening pigs. The industry has faced overcapacity due to rapid capital expansion post-African swine fever [7][12]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The pet food industry has shown strong performance from January to May 2025, despite recent valuation discrepancies. The long-term outlook remains positive, with domestic brands increasingly focusing on high-end products and innovation driving growth [9][10]. - The feed industry is in a late-stage phase, with leading companies like Haida Group expected to enhance their competitive edge, particularly in overseas markets, with annual sales growth projected to exceed 30% [11]. Challenges and Opportunities in Animal Health - The animal health sector faces challenges due to a lack of standout products. However, innovation in vaccines and genetic engineering presents growth opportunities, with companies like KQ Bio being recommended for their strong R&D capabilities [13]. Overall Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for the agricultural sector emphasizes a selective approach, focusing on the swine farming and pet food sectors, as well as Haida Group. Investors are advised to pay close attention to these areas to capitalize on potential investment opportunities amid frequent policy changes [14].

Core Viewpoint - Haida Group (002311.SZ) continues to experience growth in performance, with a projected net profit of between 2.5 billion and 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.64% to 31.76% [1][2] Business Performance - The main drivers for Haida Group's performance increase are significant growth in feed sales and substantial profits from pig farming operations [1][2] - The company achieved a revenue of 25.629 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 1.282 billion yuan, indicating an expected net profit of between 1.218 billion and 1.518 billion yuan for Q2 2025 [2] - The company focuses on its core feed business, aiming to enhance domestic feed capacity utilization and market share, with an expected feed export volume of approximately 13.65 million tons for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26% [2][3] Financial Stability - Despite market fluctuations, Haida Group has maintained strong profitability, with net profits of 2.957 billion yuan and 2.741 billion yuan in 2022 and 2023, respectively [3] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 114.601 billion yuan, a slight decline of 1.31% year-on-year, but net profit surged by 64.3% to 4.504 billion yuan [3] - As of March 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio stood at 46.12%, with cash reserves of 3.542 billion yuan [3] International Expansion - Haida Group has been actively expanding its international presence, with a focus on Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America [5] - In 2024, the company achieved an overseas feed export volume of 2.36 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 40% [5][6] - The company aims to reach a short-term target of over 3 million tons in export growth by 2025 and a mid-term target of 51.5 million tons in total sales by 2030 [6] Product and Market Strategy - The core business segments of Haida Group include feed, quality animal breeding, and animal health, which together account for over 80% of the company's revenue [2][4] - The company has seen a steady increase in feed sales, with a total of 26.52 million tons sold in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 9% [4] - The company is also expanding its production capacity in key overseas markets, with significant growth in Vietnam and Indonesia, where feed sales are expected to increase by 25-30% and over 40%, respectively, in 2024 [5][6]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company has provided guarantees for its subsidiaries to secure financing, with the total guarantee amounting to 217,346.28 million yuan as of June 30, 2025, which represents 32.46% of the company's audited net assets as of December 31, 2024 [4]. Group 1: Guarantee Details - The company has provided a guarantee of 20,000 million yuan to Liaoning Aipute Trading Co., Ltd., with an actual guarantee balance of 25,514.79 million yuan [1][3]. - A guarantee of 1,000 million yuan has been provided to Baicheng Hefeng Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd., with an actual guarantee balance of 1,770.00 million yuan [1][3]. - The company has also guaranteed 19,600 million yuan for Taian Jiuguhe Agricultural Development Co., Ltd., with an actual guarantee balance of 12,200.00 million yuan [1][3]. Group 2: Approval and Decision-Making Process - The guarantees were approved during the company's board meeting on March 14, 2025, and the second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on March 31, 2025 [3][4]. - The approved guarantee limit is set to not exceed the total amount of 217,346.28 million yuan for the financing of subsidiaries [4]. Group 3: Financial Health and Risk Management - The company has confirmed that all guaranteed entities are subsidiaries and have good credit status, ensuring that the risks associated with these guarantees are manageable [4]. - There are no overdue guarantees reported, indicating a stable financial position regarding these commitments [4].

Market Overview - The report highlights a positive trend in the agricultural sector, particularly in the aquaculture, other agricultural product processing, pig farming, food and feed additives, and seed industries, with the agricultural sector index rising by 2.55% during the week of June 30 to July 6, 2025 [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,497.48, reflecting a 0.70% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% to 10,588.39 [2] Key Investment Insights - The report identifies Haida Group as a promising investment opportunity due to the expected recovery in the feed industry, driven by declining upstream raw material prices and improving conditions in the breeding sector [3] - The average price of live pigs in key provinces showed a week-on-week increase, with prices in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan rising by 6.83%, 10.04%, and 1.68% respectively, indicating a positive trend in pig prices [3] - The report suggests that the current market may be overly pessimistic regarding the impact of pig production capacity recovery on profitability, while also overlooking the potential positive effects of declining raw material costs and macroeconomic demand recovery in 2025 [3] Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the cyclical nature of the pig farming industry, emphasizing that the current recovery phase may last longer than market expectations due to the industry's financial constraints and the need for debt reduction rather than rapid capacity expansion [3] - It is noted that the chicken industry may see performance driven by new demand recovery in 2025, with companies like Shengnong Development positioned at the bottom of their performance and valuation cycles, presenting good investment opportunities [3] Recommendations - The report recommends several pig farming stocks, including Wens Foodstuff Group, Shennong Group, Juxing Agriculture, Tangrenshen, and New Hope, based on the anticipated recovery in profitability [3] - For the pet food sector, the report highlights the importance of brand profitability and suggests focusing on leading domestic brands like Guibao Pet Food, which maintain strong sales performance [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong sales growth in its feed business and improved operational efficiency [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The estimated net profit for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 250 million and 280 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.64% to 31.76% [1][2]. - The estimated net profit after deducting non-recurring gains is expected to be between 251 million and 281 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.48% to 38.23% [1][2]. - The basic earnings per share are projected to be between 1.50 yuan and 1.68 yuan, compared to 1.28 yuan in the same period last year [1][2]. Operational Highlights - The company achieved a feed sales volume of approximately 13.65 million tons in the first half of 2025, an increase of 2.84 million tons, or about 26% year-on-year [2]. - Sales in overseas markets grew by approximately 40% year-on-year, indicating strong international demand [2]. - The company has improved domestic feed production capacity utilization and market share, enhancing its competitive advantage through operational efficiency and cost savings [2]. Business Segment Performance - The company's pig farming business remains profitable under a light-asset and risk-controlled model [2]. - However, the poultry slaughtering segment recorded losses due to low poultry prices in the first half of the year [2].

Meeting Overview - The meeting of the Supervisory Board of Guangdong Yuehai Feed Group Co., Ltd. was held on July 7, 2025, with all five supervisors present, including one participating via remote voting [1][2] - The meeting was chaired by the Supervisory Board Chairwoman, Liang Aijun, and complied with legal regulations and the company's articles of association [1] Resolutions Passed - The proposal regarding the "Shareholder Return Plan for the Next Three Years (2025-2027)" was approved with unanimous support [2] - The proposal for the "2025 Employee Stock Ownership Plan (Draft)" was discussed but will be submitted directly to the shareholders' meeting for approval due to a lack of quorum for voting [3] - The "2025 Employee Stock Ownership Plan Management Measures" was also discussed and will be submitted to the shareholders' meeting for approval due to the same voting issue [4] - The proposal to cancel certain stock options was approved unanimously, aligning with relevant laws and regulations [4] - The proposal to provide guarantees for accounts payable arising from the procurement of raw materials by subsidiaries was also approved unanimously [5]