点击上图▲立即报名 2025年6月19日—6月20日，相约"生而全球·共融共建"第二届出海全球峰会， 1500+企业出海掌舵人再聚狮城，与吴晓波、王辉耀、秦朔、津上俊哉、杨宇东、张 华荣等嘉宾，共 同探索中企出海从"产能迁徙"到"文明共生"的新路径。 【点击马上 报名】 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号： 吴晓波频道） 历史总是惊人的相似。今天的中国，正在经历拉锯且充满变数的中美贸易战；而1960—1990年间的日本，也经历了长达三十年之久的日美贸易摩 擦，并直接导致了日本企业大规模出海。 在许多中国人看来，《广场协议》的签订是日本经济转折的重要诱因，日本由此陷入了"失去的20年"，大家把它视为前车之鉴，希望从中吸取教 训。 与此同时，日本的全球化进程加速，日本企业在海外攻城略地，再造了一个"影子日本"，如今中国企业掀起新一轮出海浪潮，也希望从中获取宝贵 的经验。 可以说，贸易战只是一个表象，背后是全球产业链的分化与重构。 我们相信在历史循环中可以找到更多答案，经济周期和规律会给我们启发，日 本在出海过程中的经验教训可以为我们指点迷津。 为此，我们邀请到日本著名的国际经济学者和中国问题专家、国际问题研究所客座研究员 ...

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the comprehensive reform measures aimed at enhancing Shenzhen's role as a leading engine in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and as a model for national reform and opening-up initiatives [2][4]. Group 1: Reform Measures - The "Opinions" propose four key initiatives: 1. Integrating education, technology, and talent systems to enhance collaboration between academia and industry [5]. 2. Promoting high-quality development of the real economy through financial, technological, and data empowerment [5]. 3. Establishing a higher-level open economic system to optimize and upgrade trade [5]. 4. Improving governance models to enhance public service levels [5]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Innovation - Shenzhen's GDP increased from 2.78 trillion yuan in 2020 to 3.68 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [4]. - Total R&D investment rose from 151.08 billion yuan in 2020 to 223.66 billion yuan in 2023, averaging an annual growth of 13.9% [4]. - Shenzhen has achieved the top position in both total industrial output and industrial added value among Chinese cities for three consecutive years [4]. Group 3: Focus on Emerging Industries - The "Opinions" specifically address the rapid development of artificial intelligence and low-altitude economy, designating them as strategic emerging industries for cultivation [7]. - Shenzhen aims to establish itself as a national hub for AI innovation and a comprehensive demonstration zone for the low-altitude economy [7]. Group 4: Implementation and Management - The reform tasks are extensive and require detailed management, including a checklist and accountability for each task [8]. - A comprehensive reform implementation system will be established, including guidelines, regulatory coordination, and evaluation frameworks to enhance the effectiveness of reforms [8].

Group 1: External Market Dynamics - The importance of non-US export channels has significantly increased due to the substantial reduction in US tariffs, providing a favorable environment for related companies [1] - The external environment is expected to improve, with the internal demand becoming a key driver for economic growth, supported by ongoing policy implementations [1] Group 2: Retail Sector Innovations - The retail sector, particularly supermarkets, is undergoing significant adjustments to cope with intensified competition and the impact of e-commerce, leading to notable improvements in operational metrics [3] - Major retail companies are actively transforming their business models through store upgrades, supply chain enhancements, and personnel restructuring [3] Group 3: Baby and Maternity Retail Market - The baby and maternity retail market is experiencing a contraction, but there are opportunities for growth through mergers and acquisitions among leading companies [2] - The government's long-term strategy to promote childbirth is expected to provide support to leading companies in the sector [2] Group 4: Recommendations for Investment - Companies involved in non-US market exports, supermarkets with adjustment expectations, and baby retail companies actively developing new business lines are recommended for investment [1][2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of a volatile bond market and a passive widening of credit spreads, investors should prioritize high - coupon assets for certain returns and prepare in advance for the spread compression market driven by the seasonal inflow of wealth management funds in July [1][5]. - The current core contradiction in the credit bond market is the co - existence of weakening allocation demand and a passive widening of spreads in a volatile environment. Investors should seize pricing deviation opportunities under the protection of coupon safety cushions [5]. - The volatile market pattern caused by the interplay of multiple factors will continue, providing tactical opportunities for layout during market adjustments [6]. - The coupon strategy is the optimal solution in a volatile market, and portfolios should be constructed in a stratified manner according to the characteristics of liabilities [7]. - Investors should "pre - position" for the seasonal spread compression market in July and seize structural opportunities in specific bond varieties [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Yield and Spread Overview 3.1.1 Yields and Changes of Each Tenor - Yields of various types of bonds at different tenors are presented, along with their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For example, the 0.5 - year Treasury yield is 1.41%, down 4.0bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 8.4% [14]. 3.1.2 Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor - Credit spreads of various types of bonds at different tenors are shown, including their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For instance, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 25bp, up 2.1bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 12.7% [16]. 3.2 Yields and Spreads of Credit Bonds by Category (Hermite Algorithm) 3.2.1 Yields and Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds by Region - **Yields and Changes of Each Tenor**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the 0.5 - year yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.77%, up 2.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 1.1% [19]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are given. For example, the 0.5 - year credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 30.41bp, up 4.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 7.2% [22]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are presented. For example, the AAA - rated yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 5.1% [26]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are shown. For example, the AAA - rated credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 28.96bp, up 4.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 32.2% [31]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Administrative Level**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at each administrative level, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the provincial - level yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.5bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 3.7% [35].

Market Performance - A-shares experienced an increase due to positive stimuli, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.52% to 3402.32 points, and the Shenzhen Composite Index increasing by 0.71% [1] - The total trading volume for A-shares was 12,867 billion, a decrease from 14,514 billion the previous day [1] - Most sectors saw gains, particularly rare earths, gaming, energy metals, insurance, automotive parts, securities, trade, non-metallic materials, jewelry, and colored metals [1] Trade Negotiations - The rise in A-shares was primarily linked to progress in US-China trade negotiations, with officials concluding a two-day meeting in London [1] - Chinese and US representatives reported professional and candid discussions, reaching a framework to implement agreements from previous high-level talks [1] - Further details regarding US-China trade negotiations are expected in the coming days, with a likelihood of positive developments [1] External Market Influences - US stock markets continued their recent upward trend, with all three major indices showing slight increases [2] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was stable around 7.188, while the US dollar remained in a consolidation phase due to various offsetting factors [2] - Market expectations for US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have diminished, now anticipating only one cut for the year [2] Future Market Focus - The A-share market's performance is expected to be influenced by ongoing US-China trade discussions, with reduced uncertainties likely leading to diminished trade-related volatility [2] - Attention may shift towards domestic economic data and potential easing policies, especially following disappointing May import/export and price data [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is preparing for its 2024 Annual General Meeting (AGM) and has outlined its operational performance, financial results, and future strategies, emphasizing a focus on the dual business model of "tourism + commerce" to drive growth and transformation [1][4][12]. Meeting Procedures - The AGM will be held on June 20, 2025, combining on-site and online voting methods to ensure shareholder participation [3][4]. - Shareholders must register to speak or ask questions before the meeting starts, and speaking time is limited to five minutes per shareholder [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 778 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 9.31% from 2023, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.64 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.69% [21][27]. - The company’s operating income from its main business decreased by 7.94%, with notable declines in retail and non-metal materials, while the travel service sector saw a 29.39% increase [28][29]. Business Development Strategies - The company aims to enhance its traditional commerce sector while deepening its involvement in the tourism industry, leveraging its capital platform for high-quality development [12][14]. - Future plans include optimizing ticket pricing for boat services, enhancing retail experiences, and expanding travel agency offerings to new markets [12][13]. Governance and Compliance - The board and supervisory committee have conducted their duties in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, ensuring the company operates within legal frameworks and maintains shareholder interests [15][19]. - The company has established a robust internal control system to manage risks and ensure compliance with financial regulations [18][19]. Profit Distribution - The company plans not to distribute profits for the 2024 fiscal year due to a negative retained earnings balance, aligning with regulatory requirements [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is emerging as a new engine for economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region, promoting regional economic integration amid increasing global uncertainties and trade order instabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Trade Development - RCEP has significantly boosted intra-regional trade, with over 45% of exports and nearly 54% of imports within the region directed towards member markets, marking increases of approximately 9 percentage points and 12.1 percentage points since 2020, respectively [2]. - The GDP of RCEP members has grown at an average annual rate of 3.5% from 2021 to 2023, surpassing global growth by 0.5 percentage points, and is projected to contribute over 32% to global economic growth from 2023 to 2029, amounting to an increase of $10.9 trillion [2]. Group 2: Regional Integration and Supply Chain - The deep integration of supply chains within the RCEP region is crucial for economic stability, with the share of intermediate goods trade rising from 65.0% to 68.3% of total trade from 2021 to 2024 [3]. - RCEP aims to enhance the zero-tariff coverage rate, which is currently around 70% for China-ASEAN trade, compared to 97% under the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area agreement [3]. Group 3: Future Developments and Expansion - The conditions for establishing a high-level free trade area are maturing, with potential breakthroughs in bilateral and multilateral trade agreements, such as the anticipated signing of the upgraded China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 [4][5]. - RCEP is also considering expansion, with applications from Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, and Chile, which could enhance regional trade and financial development [5][6]. Group 4: China's Role in RCEP - China, as the largest market in the RCEP region, is expected to play a pivotal role in driving the unified market's formation, with significant growth potential in service industries and urbanization [8][9]. - In 2023, China accounted for 20.1% of RCEP's total exports of consumer goods, surpassing the U.S. by 35.6%, highlighting the importance of tariff concessions and market access for RCEP members [9].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the "Opinions" by the Central Committee and the State Council marks a significant policy empowerment for Shenzhen, reinforcing its role as a "reform pilot" and providing a clearer path for high-quality development and reform innovation [1][2] Group 1: Reform Acceleration - Shenzhen's comprehensive reform pilot program, initiated in 2020, has seen significant advancements, with 48 experiences promoted by the National Development and Reform Commission [2][3] - The latest "Opinions" serve as a "second acceleration" for Shenzhen's reform efforts, emphasizing the ongoing nature of reform [2][3] Group 2: Key Areas of Focus - The "Opinions" prioritize four key areas: integrated reform of education, technology, and talent systems; empowering the real economy through finance, technology, and data; establishing a higher-level open economic system; and enhancing governance models [4][5] - The emphasis on integrating education, technology, and talent reflects a systematic approach to fostering innovation and economic development [4] Group 3: Financial and Data Empowerment - Specific measures include improving financial services for the real economy, innovating support mechanisms for emerging industries, and deepening market-oriented reforms for data elements [5][6] - Shenzhen's data trading platform has established comprehensive management and regulatory frameworks to support data market transactions, positioning it as a national pilot for data element marketization [5] Group 4: Open Economic System - The "Opinions" outline initiatives to optimize trade, enhance service trade, and facilitate personnel movement, aiming to position Shenzhen as a leader in high-level openness [6][7] - The focus on aligning with international trade rules indicates Shenzhen's strategic role in national economic integration [6] Group 5: Contribution to National Development - The "Opinions" aim to create replicable and scalable experiences that can contribute to the broader national strategy of modernization and reform [7][8] - The inclusion of measures for cross-border financial cooperation and dual listings for companies in the Greater Bay Area signifies a move towards deeper financial integration [8]

Group 1: Economic Context - The Kondratiev wave signifies the long-term cycles of the world economy, marked by the rise and fall of great powers, with the 1930s trade war reflecting the economic dynamics of that era[1] - In the 1930s, the U.S. was a trade surplus and creditor nation, while the U.K. was a trade deficit and debtor nation, a reversal of roles seen today with China as a creditor and the U.S. as a debtor[11] - Current global trade accounts for 30% of GDP, significantly higher than the 4-5% in the 1930s, indicating a deeper integration of the global economy[11] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The decline of the British pound in the 1930s was due to economic decline, depleted gold reserves, and debt defaults, paralleling current challenges faced by the U.S. dollar[2] - The U.S. government debt exceeds 120% of GDP, with interest payments over 3% of GDP, raising concerns about the dollar's stability[11] - Gold prices increased from $17 to $35 per ounce between 1931 and 1934, reflecting the depreciation of fiat currencies during monetary system transitions[31] Group 3: Tariff Impacts - The economic impact of tariffs today is expected to be greater than in the 1930s due to the higher global trade integration, with tariffs potentially affecting employment and income levels[3] - Historical data shows that tariffs in the 1930s did not significantly raise inflation in deficit countries, suggesting that current tariff impacts may also be limited in terms of price levels[3] - The U.S. trade deficit is projected to exceed $900 billion in 2024, with a significant portion attributed to China, highlighting ongoing trade tensions[25] Group 4: Policy Responses - The U.S. response to the Great Depression involved abandoning the gold standard and expanding the money supply, a strategy mirrored by China's recent dual monetary and fiscal easing policies[4] - Current U.S. tariff policies may lead to a fragmented trade system, similar to the 1930s, as countries seek to establish trade agreements independent of U.S. influence[4] - The political demand for tariffs is driven by widening wealth gaps, with historical parallels drawn to the 1930s when similar economic pressures led to protective measures[4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the comprehensive reform pilot in Shenzhen, emphasizing the need for deepening reforms and expanding openness to enhance high-quality development in various sectors, including education, technology, and finance [1][4]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The reform aims to integrate development and security while promoting a combination of top-level design and grassroots exploration, focusing on education, technology, and talent system reforms [5]. - The goal is to create replicable and promotable experiences that enhance Shenzhen's role as a key engine in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and contribute to the modernization of the socialist state [5]. Group 2: Education, Technology, and Talent Reforms - The plan includes strengthening collaboration between industry, academia, and research, optimizing the role of leading technology enterprises, and reforming research funding management [6]. - It promotes the integration of emerging engineering education with industrial development and supports the training of high-quality, innovative talents [7]. - The mechanism for supporting overseas talent recruitment will be improved, allowing greater autonomy for employers in managing talent-related matters [7]. Group 3: Empowering the Real Economy - The reform will establish mechanisms for the empowerment and assessment of scientific and technological achievements, facilitating the transformation of state-owned assets [8]. - It supports the innovation of financial services for the real economy, including the integration of technology and finance, and the development of green finance [9]. - The plan encourages the exploration of new business models in emerging industries and the establishment of a comprehensive service system for technology transfer [9]. Group 4: Open Economic System - The reform aims to optimize and upgrade goods trade, supporting new business models and enhancing customs facilitation [11]. - It promotes the innovation of service trade, allowing for high-value, environmentally friendly customs operations [11]. - The plan includes improving mechanisms for the flow of personnel, facilitating the practice of foreign professionals in Shenzhen [11]. Group 5: Governance Model - The reform emphasizes enhancing public service levels, particularly in drug and medical device regulation, and improving social governance through digital government initiatives [12]. - It aims to reform land and natural resource management, including innovative land utilization methods and the management of idle land [12]. - The judicial reform will focus on establishing a diversified dispute resolution mechanism and enhancing intellectual property protection [13]. Group 6: Implementation and Evaluation - The reform will be led by the Party, ensuring coordination and effective implementation of the pilot tasks [14]. - There will be a focus on evaluating and promoting successful reform experiences, with timely adjustments made to underperforming initiatives [14].