Core Insights - LME aluminum futures prices continue to rise, opening at $2885 per ton and currently at $2878 per ton, with an increase of 0.30% [1] - On November 10, LME aluminum futures closed at $2880.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.65% increase from the previous day [2] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 10, LME aluminum opened at $2862.5, reached a high of $2895.0, and a low of $2860.0, closing at $2880.5 [2] - The current trading session saw LME aluminum prices peak at $2891 per ton and dip to $2876.5 per ton [1] Group 2: Inventory and Import Data - As of November 10, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 64,142 tons, an increase of 372 tons from the previous trading day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 509,550 tons, with canceled receipts at 37,675 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons [2] - Aluminum inventory at LME stands at 547,225 tons, also down by 2,000 tons [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.5, with import losses at -2,315.55 yuan per ton, compared to -2,113.29 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in aluminum prices is driven by supply constraints and increasing demand across various sectors, particularly in renewable energy and electric vehicles. Group 1: Price Trends - On November 6, 2025, China Aluminum (601600.SH) reached a 15-year high, with aluminum cash prices averaging $2,786 per ton in October, up approximately 7.2% year-on-year, and further rising to $2,859 per ton in November [1] - Domestic aluminum prices fluctuated around 21,600 yuan per ton in early November, marking an 11% increase compared to the same period in 2024, although still below the peak of 24,000 yuan per ton in 2021 and 2022 [1] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Global electrolytic aluminum production is highly concentrated, with China producing about 4,300 million tons in 2024, accounting for nearly 60% of the total [2] - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its limit, with a total capacity of approximately 4,584 million tons and an operational capacity of about 4,406 million tons as of October [3] - The production capacity ceiling set by the Chinese government at around 4,500 million tons per year has created a rigid supply structure, making it difficult to alleviate price pressures through new capacity [3] Group 3: International Production Challenges - International expansion of electrolytic aluminum production is hindered by high energy costs and infrastructure limitations, with U.S. industrial electricity prices exceeding feasible thresholds for new projects [4] - The energy consumption for producing one ton of electrolytic aluminum is approximately 14,000 kWh, making electricity a significant cost factor for producers [5] Group 4: Demand Drivers - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is significantly driven by sectors such as real estate, transportation, and renewable energy, with notable contributions from solar and electric vehicle industries [7] - In the first nine months of 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 11.24 million units, with a penetration rate of 46.1% in the domestic new car market [8] - The rapid development of energy storage solutions is also contributing to increased aluminum demand, with cumulative installed capacity reaching 73.76 million kilowatts by the end of 2024 [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The aluminum industry has seen a lag in capital investment relative to demand growth, leading to slow capacity expansion and a predictable upward price trend in the coming years [9] - The potential for aluminum to replace copper in low-voltage applications is increasing, driven by aluminum's lower price and greater availability, although large-scale substitution remains a challenge [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. Overseas production cuts and positive macro - factors support the price, and the callback depth is limited. If the inventory reduction is smooth, the upward space of aluminum price may open [6]. - The supply - demand surplus pattern of alumina remains unchanged, but spot prices are supported by active procurement. The current price is undervalued, and attention should be paid to unexpected events [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,490 yuan/ton, with a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is - 30 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,380 yuan/ton, and the spot premium has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,370 yuan/ton, with a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is - 145 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 10, 2025, the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract opened at 21,660 yuan/ton, closed at 21,725 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 21,750 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,535 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 238,609 lots, and the open interest was 382,845 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 10, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 627,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 64,142 tons, an increase of 372 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 547,225 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 10, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,785 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,935 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,960 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 10, 2025, the main alumina futures contract opened at 2,782 yuan/ton, closed at 2,829 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 1.80% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,844 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,780 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 497,030 lots, and the open interest was 407,979 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 10, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 72,800 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 59,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,042 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 142 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. Overseas production cuts in Iceland, positive macro - factors, and the undervalued aluminum price in terms of the copper - aluminum ratio limit the downward space. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm [6]. Alumina - Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum plants increased the purchase price. The supply of bauxite is under pressure, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, but the spot price is supported by procurement. The current price is undervalued, and attention should be paid to unexpected events [7][8]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution. - Arbitrage: Neutral [9]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that China Aluminum Corporation has a significant cost advantage in electricity, with production costs potentially lower by 1,200 to 3,600 RMB per ton compared to global competitors due to lower electricity prices in China [1] Group 1: Cost Advantages - China's electricity prices are approximately 20% lower than India's and 30% to 60% lower than those in the US and Europe, providing a competitive edge for Chinese aluminum producers [1] - The report anticipates that the cost advantage will expand in the coming years as overseas markets face electricity shortages and rising prices, while China's electricity supply remains sufficient [1] Group 2: Supply and Profitability Outlook - Current aluminum supply in China has reached a limit of 45 million tons, which is expected to support global aluminum prices and enhance profit margins for Chinese companies from 2025 to 2027 [1] - Bank of America Securities has raised its profit forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2026 to 2030 by 5% to 14%, increasing the target price from 35 HKD to 38 HKD, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The profit forecasts for China Aluminum have been adjusted upward by 1% and 27% for the next two years, with the target price increased from 10 HKD to 11.9 HKD, also maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 3: Industry Valuation - The aluminum sector is viewed as attractive in terms of valuation, particularly in the context of developments in artificial intelligence and data centers [1]

航空级铝材是一类用于航空航天领域的高性能铝合金材料，它通过精密的成分设计和严格的固溶、淬火、时效等热处理工艺， 使其具备比普通铝合金更高的比强度、优异的耐腐蚀性、良好的抗疲劳性能和韧性，能够在极端环境下满足飞行器对结构减 重、安全可靠及长寿命的苛刻要求。 航空级铝材全球市场总体规模 01 根据 QYResearch 最新调研报告显示，到 2024 年，全球航空级铝材产能约 55 0 万 吨，产量约 360 万 吨，全球市场平均价格约为 每吨 3 , 500 美元，行业毛利率约 32% 。市场规模方面，预计 2031 年全球航空级铝材市场规模将达到 206 亿美元，未来几年年 复合增长率 CAGR 为 7.30 % 。 | 序号 | 企业 | | --- | --- | | 1 | Constellium | | 2 | Rio Tinto | | 3 | UC Rusal | | 4 | Kaiser Aluminum | | 5 | Alcoa | | 6 | 中国铝业股份有限公司 | | 7 | Aleris | | 8 | Pierce Aluminum | | 9 | Bunty LLC | | 10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. aluminum market is experiencing record-high premiums due to increased tariffs and global supply constraints, significantly impacting pricing and trade dynamics [1]. Group 1: Tariffs and Pricing - On June 4, President Trump doubled the aluminum import tariff to 50% to support domestic aluminum production [1]. - As of now, the Midwest premium for aluminum has surged, with the price for 25 square millimeter aluminum core cable reaching a record high of 88.10 cents per pound [1]. - At an aluminum price of $2,850 per ton, U.S. sellers will need to pay $4,792 per ton in the spot market, which includes a tariff of $1,425 per ton, up from $560 per ton at the beginning of the year [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in tariffs is attributed to a decline in U.S. aluminum inventories and the perception that tariffs will be permanent, especially after trade negotiations with Canada were halted [1]. - In the previous year, the U.S. imported over 2.7 million tons of aluminum from Canada, accounting for 70% of total imports [1]. - Analyst Tom Price from PanmureLiberum predicts a supply shortfall of 1.8 million tons in the aluminum market this year [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - There has been a shift in sentiment among traders, with those who were optimistic about reaching a trade agreement now abandoning their positions [1]. - U.S. consumers are facing intense competition in aluminum procurement due to the current market conditions [1].

Core Insights - The aluminum market in the U.S. has reached a historical high in premiums, significantly increasing the cost of acquiring aluminum, driven by tariffs and global supply constraints [1][3] - The Midwest U.S. aluminum premium hit $0.8810 per pound (equivalent to $1942 per ton), with the actual price for U.S. spot buyers rising to $4792 per ton, reflecting a cumulative increase of over 155% since June [1] Tariff Impact - The increase in aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% by the Trump administration in June has led to a current tariff burden of $1425 per ton, more than doubling from $560 at the beginning of the year [3] - The expectation of permanent tariffs has intensified following the cancellation of trade negotiations with Canada, which is the largest aluminum supplier to the U.S., accounting for over 70% of imports [3] Global Supply Constraints - A structural supply shortage in the global aluminum market is contributing to rising costs, with an anticipated supply gap of 1.8 million tons this year [3] - China's net exports of refined metals and semi-finished products have decreased significantly, alongside a decline in aluminum production outside of China, leading to a total reduction of 2 million tons in global aluminum supply [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial performance of China Aluminum (601600.SH) for the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting both revenue growth and significant profit increase, emphasizing the importance of the company's fundamentals and industry conditions [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, China Aluminum achieved a revenue of 176.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.87 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.7% [4]. - The total profit for the period was reported at 20.77 billion yuan, which is an increase of 18.47% compared to the same period last year [5]. - The company's operating income for the current period was 60.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.66% compared to the previous year [5]. - The adjusted net profit for the year-to-date was 9.01 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 20.65% year-on-year [5]. Key Factors - The company's performance is significantly influenced by its fundamentals and the overall industry climate, indicating that both internal and external factors play a crucial role in its financial outcomes [5].

Sector Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The macro news stimulates the market sentiment to be optimistic, and non-ferrous metals generally strengthen. Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) rises, LME Aluminum rises, and domestic spot aluminum falls. SHFE Aluminum continues the oscillating upward trend, and the medium-term focus is on the change of spot demand [4]. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - The US Congress is close to reaching an agreement, the government shutdown is expected to end, and China and the US will mutually cancel trade restrictions. The US dollar rises and the RMB slightly falls [4]. - SHFE Aluminum closes at 21,725, and the spot price is 21,480, with a spot - futures discount of -425 points. The spot discount this week remains flat at -30 yuan, and spot trading is poor [4]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is stable, the alumina inventory rises, the SHFE aluminum inventory slightly decreases, and the spot demand is average. The LME inventory significantly rises, the LME spot discount widens to -13 US dollars, and the overseas spot demand is poor [4]. - The RMB exchange rate rises significantly this week, and the SHFE - LME ratio of aluminum prices rises to 7.59, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market [4]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil surges, LME Aluminum slightly rises and trades around 2,880 US dollars. SHFE Aluminum rebounds after hitting a low, slightly rises, approaches a new high, and closes at 21,725, with a strong technical pattern [4]. - The trading volume of SHFE Aluminum decreases and the open interest increases, and the market sentiment is optimistic [4]. Influencing Factors - The hype of anti - involution cools down, and alumina oscillates at a low level. Trade disputes ease, the Russia - Ukraine situation is unclear, and energy prices rise, which strengthen the market sentiment [4]. - After the hype of gold and copper declines, small metals are favored by funds, and the overseas price ratio is significantly higher than the domestic one [4]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | LME Aluminum Futures - Spot Difference | Main Contract SHFE - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Nov 4 | 7.1352 | -30 | -4 | 7.43 | | Nov 5 | 7.1312 | -20 | -7 | 7.50 | | Nov 6 | 7.1209 | -30 | -7 | 7.52 | | Nov 7 | 7.1251 | -30 | -14 | 7.53 | | Nov 10 | 7.1206 | -30 | -13 | 7.59 | [5]

Group 1 - The former Party Secretary and General Manager of China Aluminum Qinghai Company, Xing Zhanxiong, is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [2] - The investigation is being conducted by the Discipline Inspection and Supervision Group of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and National Supervisory Commission stationed at China Aluminum Group [2]