来源：视觉中国 正在美国大豆获得丰收之际，特朗普政府的关税政策正将农民推向绝境，彻底失去最大出口市场且面临 低价冲击。 据《环球时报》报道，美国大豆协会主席拉格兰近日在采访中透露，今年秋季收割以来最大买家中国未 下任何订单。他再次向特朗普发出紧急呼吁，中国市场对他们的生计至关重要。 美国大豆协会代表全美30个大豆生产州30余万种植者利益。这个群体在贸易战、移民政策、通货膨胀和 高利率等多种因素的共同作用下，形势变得越来越严峻。 但随着中国寻求进口来源多元化，巴西已取代美国成为中国最大的大豆供应国。巴西是世界上最大的大 豆出口国，占全球大豆贸易份额的40%以上。自2010年以来，该国对中国的大豆出口增长了280%以 上。 与此同时，大豆供应链涉及肥料、机械、仓储、运输、金融、港口码头等行业，相关就业岌岌可危。 堪萨斯城联邦储备委员会的数据显示，美国农业贷款利率仍处于十年来的最高水平，预计2025年农业债 务将继续增加，达到近5620亿美元。中西部大部分地区面临严重违约风险的贷款升至2020年以来的最高 水平。 在去年大选中站在特朗普一边的农业大州也开始坐不住了。艾奥瓦州农民Trent Kuhn表示，无论农户的 ...

（羊城晚报•羊城派综合中国基金报、环球时报） 据美国农业部海外农业局统计，2024年美国对华大豆出口额达128亿美元。但今年，农户们还未接到来 自中国市场的订单。伊利诺伊州、艾奥瓦州、明尼苏达州和印第安纳州作为大豆核心产区，所受影响尤 为深重，这些州的大豆产量约占全美总产量的一半。 据报道，通常到本季时，美国对华大豆年销量中已有约1/3完成交易。这意味着，当前本应有占美国大 豆总产量8%至9%的大豆销往中国，但实际成交量为零。 美国豆农正感受着特朗普政府关税政策带来的痛苦。近日，美国广播公司播出了一段对美国大豆协会主 席拉格兰的采访。画面中，拉格兰坐在拖拉机上，再次提到目前美国大豆正值收获季，而中国的订购量 至今为"零"。 拉格兰向美国总统特朗普发出紧急呼吁："我们需要的是市场和机遇，中国市场对我们的生计至关重 要。"拉格兰此前接受美国《财富》杂志采访时就警告称，美国大豆迎来收获季，但最大买家却未下任 何订单，豆农面临的形势"极其严峻"。 拉格兰的发言代表了绝大多数美国豆农的心声。"我躬耕一生，今年是记忆中最黑暗的一年。"44岁的豆 农唐纳在接受采访时感叹道。唐纳一家的农场坐落于阿肯色州东北部，种植棉花、玉米 ...

更离谱的是，美国农民首当其冲。中国反制关税一上来，美国大豆出口直接被砍掉一大块，2019年美国不得不拿出280亿美元补贴农民。这钱哪来的？税 收。说白了还是美国老百姓埋单。 企业也没好到哪去。根据美小企业联合会的调研，到2025年，美国中小企业因为关税，每家每年平均多花12万美元成本。你想象一下，一个本来利润就不厚 的中小厂商，多背这么个负担，怎么活？ 再说科技公司。2020年开始美国限制高端芯片卖中国，表面上看是要卡中国脖子。结果中国市场占了英伟达和高通接近一半收入，一刀切下去，他们的财报 直接掉头。高通2023年在中国的收入比上一年少了将近20%，股价也跟着跌。研发经费一紧，反过来影响他们自己在全球的竞争力。 你有没有发现，美国这几年跟中国硬刚，最后受伤的好像都是自己人？ 我这两天翻了下数据，2018年特朗普发动贸易战的时候，对中国商品加税超过3000亿美元。他当时说要减少逆差，结果到2024年，美国对华逆差依然有3500 亿美元。美商务部的数据摆在那，这笔账怎么算都不像是赢。 所以特朗普2025年再上台，看财政部报告的时候才皱眉。因为他终于发现，这不是在维护超级大国的地位，而是在消耗超级大国的底子。 美 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean industry is facing significant challenges due to a sharp decline in exports to China, which has shifted its purchasing to South America [3][5][14] - Recent U.S. immigration policies are causing unrest in both the agricultural and high-tech sectors, further complicating the economic landscape [9][20] Group 1: Export Dynamics - In the 2023-2024 marketing year, U.S. soybean exports to China reached 24.9 million tons, significantly higher than exports to the EU and Mexico [3] - By 2025, major Chinese grain traders have almost entirely shifted their soybean purchases to South America, leading to a drastic reduction in U.S. market share [3][14] - The U.S. Soybean Association reports that the loss of Chinese orders is causing financial distress for approximately 500,000 soybean farmers [5][11] Group 2: Financial Impact on Farmers - A survey by the U.S. Agricultural Census indicates that household income for soybean farmers in the Midwest fell by over 30% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [7] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts an 18% year-on-year increase in soybean inventory by Q4 2025, putting downward pressure on prices [13] - Many farmers are being forced to reduce planting areas or switch to less profitable crops like corn and wheat due to financial pressures [13][16] Group 3: Policy and Market Reactions - The recent increase in H-1B visa application fees has raised concerns among tech companies about higher operational costs and reduced global talent attraction [9][20] - The U.S. government is attempting to negotiate agricultural tariff agreements with other markets, but these efforts are unlikely to replace the significant volume of trade with China [16][20] - The agricultural sector is calling for a rational approach to trade policies to rebuild a healthy international trade order [20]

回顾过去几年，中美贸易战的焦点之一便是大豆。中国曾是美国最大的大豆买家，但随着特朗普对中国 的关税施压，这一局面发生了根本变化。2025年秋天，正当美国农民准备迎接丰收季时，中国市场却没 有一个大豆订单。这不只是一个商业空缺，更是美国农业经济面临崩溃的信号。 曾几何时，美国大豆农民的日子是充满希望的。中国市场需求庞大，几乎占据了全球大豆出口的最大份 额。美国依赖中国市场，甚至连特朗普政府也将大豆作为贸易战中的重要筹码。通过施加关税，特朗普 希望削弱中国的贸易顺差，并迫使中国做出让步。然而，事情并未按照预期发展。中国采取反制措施， 逐步降低对美国大豆的依赖，转向巴西等南美国家采购大豆。 这种转变意味着，美国农民失去了一个无法快速替代的市场。根据最新的数据显示，2024年，中国从巴 西进口的大豆已经占据了多数的市场份额，而美国大豆的份额却只有22.83%。这种差距不仅仅是市场 份额的变化，更是美国在全球农业供应链中的战略性失误。 当特朗普政府宣布美联储降息的消息传出时，农民们的反应却并不乐观。他们知道，这个降息无法弥补 失去中国市场的损失。过去几年内，尽管特朗普政府对中国加征关税，但中国依然通过多元化采购策 略， ...

【环球网报道】美国广播公司（ABC）当地时间19日播出一段对美国大豆协会主席凯莱布·拉格兰的现场直播采访。画面中，拉格兰坐在拖拉机上，再次提 到目前美国大豆正值收获季，中国的订购量却为"零"。他向美国总统特朗普发出紧急呼吁：我们需要的是强大的市场和机遇，中国市场对我们的生计至关重 要。 "美国有50万大豆种植户，中国市场对我们的生计至关重要。"拉格兰表示。 拉格兰表示，包括他本人在内的许多农户除农场外就没有其他收入来源，"当你最大的客户突然消失，情况就非常糟糕了"。他还称，由于关税，美国大豆相 对于南美同行来说在价格上处于劣势，比其高出20%，这使美国大豆缺乏竞争力，"我们需要改变，现在就需要"。 在被问及有什么话想对特朗普说时，拉格兰直言，"我们需要中国市场，我们需要的是立即行动，而不是空谈。"拉格兰表示，大豆的出口是季节性的，销售 和物流也需要规划，因此需要立刻采取行动，如果再等几个月，中国市场就会转向明年一月和二月开始收获的巴西大豆。 8月19日，拉格兰曾致信特朗普表示，美国大豆种植户正面临"极大的"财务压力。随着收获季迅速到来，美国就大豆出口与中国越晚达成协议，美国豆农受 到的冲击就越严重。 美国大豆 ...

Group 1: Impact of Trade War on U.S. Soybean Farmers - The U.S.-China trade war initiated in 2018 has severely impacted U.S. soybean farmers, leading to a significant drop in soybean prices and exports to China [1][5] - U.S. soybean exports to China fell to nearly 2.5 million tons in the 2023-2024 marketing year, a stark contrast to the 28% average export share to China before the trade war [1][8] - The financial pressure on U.S. farmers is evident, with production costs at $11.3 per bushel compared to a market price of $10.15, resulting in a net loss of nearly $100 per acre [2][3] Group 2: China's Strategic Response - China has built a robust global supply chain for soybeans, investing $12 billion in Brazilian infrastructure to reduce logistics time and ensure supply security [2] - In 2024, Brazil's soybean exports to China reached 74.65 million tons, accounting for 71.1% of China's total imports, while U.S. exports plummeted to 18% [2] - China's domestic soybean production has increased significantly, with a production target of over 23 million tons by 2025, reducing reliance on imports from 85% to below 75% [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures prices have dropped 40% from their peak three years ago, reflecting market concerns over supply chain disruptions [2][5] - U.S. farmers face structural challenges in transitioning to other crops due to high mechanization costs and the need to establish new sales channels, making it difficult to adapt to market changes [4] - The overall decline in U.S. agricultural exports has broader economic implications, affecting not only farmers but also energy exporters [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean harvest season is facing a crisis as China, the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, has placed zero orders this year, leading to significant financial distress for American farmers [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Agriculture - U.S. agriculture contributes $9.5 trillion to the GDP, accounting for nearly 20% of the national economy, with soybeans being a critical component [3]. - Historically, China has purchased around 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans annually, representing over half of U.S. soybean exports, but this year, orders have dropped to zero [3]. - The Chicago soybean futures price has plummeted by 40% over three years, currently trading at $10.10 per bushel, which is below the production cost of $11.03 [3]. Group 2: Political and Economic Responses - The American Soybean Association has expressed severe concerns to President Trump, indicating that the situation is extremely dire, with record-high production but overwhelming inventory and financial pressures [3][6]. - Trump's administration has attempted to pressure China through tariffs and sanctions, but this strategy has not yielded the desired results, as it risks further alienating China and solidifying its alternative supply chains [4][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The ongoing crisis has led to fears of a domino effect throughout the agricultural supply chain, potentially resulting in farmer bankruptcies, business closures, and a deteriorating rural economy [6]. - China has diversified its soybean supply sources, increasing imports from Brazil and Argentina, and enhancing domestic production, which diminishes reliance on U.S. soybeans [6][8]. - Analysts believe that it is unlikely for China to triple its orders from the U.S. under current tariff conditions, as U.S. soybeans lack competitiveness due to a 23% import tariff [8].

9月中旬，美国大豆行业进入收获季节。然而，随之而来的却不是丰收的喜悦，而是满眼的"寒潮"—— 中国这一曾是美国大豆最大买家的市场，至今未下任何订单。与此同时，美国总统特朗普对中国实施的 关税政策，依旧处于持续施压状态，这无疑加剧了美国农业的困境。今年秋天，面对着庞大的产量，伊 利诺伊州的农民们依然没有收到来自中国的大豆订单。 这一局面，显然与去年同期截然不同。去年这个时候，中国已经预定了大约1300万吨美国大豆。然而今 年，局势已发生了剧变。中国的采购量大幅下降，令美国豆农深感焦虑。美国大豆协会的主席拉格兰近 日公开表示，当前形势严峻，若中国继续"缺席"，美国大豆产业将面临前所未有的危机，可能会失去这 一市场，甚至将订单转向南美。 特朗普在推行"美国优先"政策时，忽视了全球贸易合作的互惠性和依赖性。大豆出口的寒潮，正是这一 政策副作用的缩影。中国对于美国大豆市场的依赖早已发生转变，尤其是当中美贸易摩擦升级时，中国 加速寻找替代品，以降低对美国单一市场的依赖。如今，这种政策下的"大豆寒潮"，是特朗普政府无法 忽视的"代价"。 可以说，美国的对华贸易战不仅仅是关税问题，更是美国长期农业政策的"痛点"暴露。以往，美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean industry is facing a crisis due to a lack of orders from China, which has historically been its largest buyer, leading to significant financial strain on American farmers and related businesses [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Soybean Industry - The U.S. soybean harvest is abundant this year, but the absence of orders from China is causing severe financial distress for the industry [1][3]. - Approximately 25% of U.S. soybeans are typically exported to China, highlighting the importance of this market for American farmers [3]. - The imposition of high tariffs by the Trump administration has disrupted trade, resulting in a stagnation of many agricultural exports, particularly soybeans [3][6]. Group 2: Response from U.S. Government and Farmers - The U.S. Soybean Association's president has expressed urgent concerns about the financial pressures faced by soybean growers and has urged the Trump administration to negotiate with China [15]. - Despite the mounting pressure from farmers, the Trump administration has not taken significant action to reverse tariff policies, which complicates potential trade negotiations with China [15][16]. Group 3: Alternative Markets for China - China has alternative sources for soybeans, including domestic production and imports from South America, which reduces its dependency on U.S. soybeans [4][5]. - Brazil has capitalized on the situation, with soybean exports to China exceeding 30 million tons in the first half of the year, benefiting from the U.S. trade policies [18]. Group 4: Consequences of the Crisis - The surplus of unsold soybeans has led to a buildup in storage, financial losses for processing plants, and potential bankruptcies among farmers [12][13]. - The agricultural downturn poses significant risks to the U.S. economy, particularly affecting rural communities and employment in the agricultural sector [14][20].