Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the tungsten industry, indicating a positive outlook for companies with resource advantages and deep processing capabilities [7]. Core Viewpoints - The tightening of total mining control indicators and resource scarcity are driving the upward trend in tungsten prices. The first batch of tungsten mining control indicators for 2025 is set at 58,000 tons, a decrease of 6.5% from the previous year [2][10]. - The global tungsten resource supply bottleneck began in 2016, leading to a shift in pricing logic from "demand narrative" to "supply narrative," initiating the longest price increase cycle in nearly 20 years [4][26]. - The recent export controls on tungsten products have significantly reduced export volumes, with March exports dropping by 63% year-on-year [3][19]. Summary by Sections Total Mining Control Indicators - The first batch of tungsten mining control indicators for 2025 is 58,000 tons, down from 62,000 tons in the previous year, primarily due to reductions in Jiangxi, Yunnan, and Heilongjiang provinces [10][11]. - The overall annual total mining control indicators are expected to remain flat or decrease compared to last year, reflecting a long-term growth bottleneck in domestic tungsten supply since its peak in 2015 [12][28]. March Exports - The export control measures implemented on February 4, 2025, have led to a drastic reduction in the export of dual-use tungsten items, with March exports falling to 502 tons, a 63% decrease year-on-year [3][19]. - The newly controlled tungsten products, such as tungsten carbide and ammonium paratungstate, saw their export volumes drop to zero, while other tungsten products also experienced significant declines [17][19]. Investment Recommendations - Companies with resource supply advantages and deep processing capabilities are expected to benefit significantly from the tungsten industry's favorable cycle, as resource scarcity continues to dominate the market [5][28]. - Key investment targets include Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, Zhangyuan Tungsten, and Xianglu Tungsten, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the current market dynamics [5][28].

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 目录 一周回顾 素：关税的基本面影响逐步显现；中美在金融和科技领域可能还有后续扰动；能够凝聚市场共识的主线仍需等待。 市场对政策对冲的要求会逐步提高。讨论二季度市场预期总体平稳所需的政策条件：1. 保留后续政策适时加码的空间。2. 一季度累积的财政资源，在二季度要落实实物工作物量，消 本轮是对冲资产(新消费)明显占优，后续科技主题的权重会增加。 中期A股重拾上行趋势，大概率要以科技产业趋势重新凝聚共识为条件。中期继续推荐：国内AI算力和应用、具身智 光学光电子；PE\PB均在历史15%分位以下的行业：保险、小金属、交通运输（航运港口）、电池、中药、医疗服务 专题研究 进行梳理和探讨。 公告 -- 优质自身的保障 " 宋照 句广大外贸企业 责合作伙伴 F 加大外贸优品消费文 F端环的号召，盯焚资 F开放快捷通道，9章 F。 日前日第今产企 # 国外贸企业 驻通道 K关于提拔消费、扩大 C 集团 应商伙伴 id= l 胖】 l 船求发力点? !链观察系列1 @www—科技 ia" 9) 星光, 汇星座 列 三角系統合第二次 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the fundamental impacts of tariffs are gradually becoming evident, and there may be further disturbances in the financial and technological sectors between China and the US [3][5] - The market's demand for policy hedging is expected to increase, with a focus on the necessary policy conditions for stable market expectations in the second quarter [3][5] - The current market is favoring new consumption as a hedging asset, while the weight of technology themes is anticipated to rise in the future [3][5] Group 2 - The mid-term outlook for A-shares suggests a return to an upward trend, likely requiring a consensus around the technology industry trends [3][5] - Continued recommendations include domestic AI computing power and applications, as well as optical and optoelectronic industries [3][5] - Industries with price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios below the historical 15th percentile include insurance, small metals, transportation (shipping and ports), batteries, traditional Chinese medicine, and medical services [5]

Core Insights - The small metals market has experienced significant price increases this year, particularly for antimony, bismuth, and cobalt, with antimony prices rising approximately 90% to new highs [1] - The price surge is attributed to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical factors, leading to a new normal in the small metals supply-demand landscape [1][2] - Companies are accelerating resource reserves and expanding production capacity in response to market conditions [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global production of small metals has significantly declined over the past decade, while demand continues to grow, creating a supportive environment for price increases [1][2] - Antimony, used as a clarifying agent in photovoltaic glass, has seen its demand from the solar industry rise from 5% in 2019 to 23% in 2023, driving structural changes in the antimony market [2] - Cobalt prices have surged due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with expectations of continued upward trends [2] Company Performance - In 2024, Luoyang Molybdenum achieved revenue of 213.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.37%, and a net profit of 13.53 billion yuan, up 64.03% [2] - Jinmo Co. reported a net profit of 2.98 billion yuan in 2024, while Xiamen Tungsten achieved 1.74 billion yuan, and Tin Industry Co. reported 1.44 billion yuan [3] - The small metals sector is characterized by a structural bull market, with significant price increases for antimony, tungsten, molybdenum, and tin [2][3] Resource Strategy - Companies are actively seizing opportunities to enhance production and resource reserves in response to growing demand [3][4] - Jinmo Co. aims to improve the efficiency of its value chain and focus on high-value molybdenum manufacturing and new material development [4] - Luoyang Molybdenum reported record production levels for copper, cobalt, niobium, and phosphorus in 2024, with plans for further copper production expansion [4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic value reassessment of medium and heavy rare earths due to export controls implemented by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs [4][5][6] - The investment strategy suggests that domestic policies are continuously supporting the market, with small metal prices expected to show elasticity, particularly for rare earths, tin, and antimony [4][5][6] Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 296.8 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 278.2 billion yuan [2] - The report highlights a mixed performance in the small metal market, with significant price movements observed in various metals [4][6] Rare Earths - The price of rare earths is at a cyclical low, with import minerals now under control, leading to a more concentrated supply structure and potential price increases [4][5] - The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in the rare earth sector, particularly with the expected production ramp-up of humanoid robots, which could require an additional 200,000 to 400,000 tons of rare earths [4][5] Antimony - Antimony remains a tight supply metal, with domestic prices showing resilience despite slight declines [4][5] - The domestic antimony ingot price is reported at 248,000 yuan per ton, down 4.43% [5][14] Tin - Tin prices are experiencing fluctuations due to supply-demand dynamics, with the SHFE tin price rising by 1.95% to 287,800 yuan per ton [4][5] - The report notes that the supply of tin is relatively inelastic, and semiconductor consumption is expected to recover gradually [4][5] Lithium - Lithium prices continue to show weakness, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 73,300 yuan per ton, down 0.75% [4][5] - The report indicates that lithium production is stable, but inventory levels are increasing, suggesting a potential oversupply situation [4][5] Cobalt - Cobalt prices are on an upward trend due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with standard-grade cobalt priced at 15.88 USD per pound, up 0.79% [4][5] - The report highlights that domestic cobalt prices are facing downward pressure despite international price increases [4][5] Market Trends - The report notes a seasonal decline in demand across various sectors, including photovoltaic and consumer electronics, while the new energy vehicle market shows strong growth [4][19][27] - The photovoltaic sector saw a year-on-year increase of 7.49% in new installations during January-February 2025, totaling 39.47 GW [16][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][20]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a 64% year-on-year growth in net profit for 2024, with projected revenue of 213 billion yuan, representing a 14.4% increase. The net profit is forecasted to reach 13.53 billion yuan, while the non-recurring net profit is expected to be 13.12 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 110.5% [5][6]. - The company is actively working towards a target of one million tons of copper production, with successful exploration results from TFM and KFM projects. Additionally, the company has made progress in power supply construction with a signed agreement for a 200MW hydropower project in the Democratic Republic of Congo [13][15]. - The company has demonstrated significant cost reductions in copper and cobalt production, with copper costs dropping to 30,194 yuan per ton in 2024 from 34,500 yuan per ton in 2023, and cobalt costs decreasing to 52,740 yuan per ton from 72,158 yuan per ton [6][7]. Financial Projections - For 2024, the company is projected to generate revenue of 213 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.53 billion yuan. The expected revenue growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20.5%, 3.6%, and 3.7%, respectively [3][18]. - The estimated diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.71 yuan, 0.80 yuan, and 0.93 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11.4, 10.1, and 8.7 [18][19]. - The company is expected to maintain a return on equity (ROE) of 19.1% in 2024, increasing to 20.5% by 2027 [3][18].

Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Domestic economy is entering a peak season post-Spring Festival, with demand expected to rise due to resumption of work and production[6] - Significant price increases observed in certain commodities, with some rising over 8% since the Spring Festival, including small metals (antimony, bismuth, cobalt), rare earths, and chemical products[6] - Stock prices in certain sectors have already reflected these price expectations, particularly in small metals, influenced by overseas geopolitical events and domestic export controls[6] Investment Opportunities - Recommended focus on chemical products, rare earths, and agricultural products due to price increases, with notable stock price movements: sulfur (53.4% price increase vs. 14.9% stock price increase), bismuth (80.2% vs. 17.4%), and cobalt (57% vs. 18%)[6] - Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals (cobalt, bismuth, antimony, tin, rare earths, copper) and new energy sectors like lithium iron phosphate batteries[6] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected global economic fluctuations, uncertainties in U.S. tariffs and monetary policies, and escalated Sino-U.S. trade tensions[6] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding policy implications and market dynamics, as well as the potential for data discrepancies and subjective assessments[6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the small metals industry or the specific company being analyzed [1]. Core Insights - The company is focused on enhancing its core competitiveness and sustainable profitability through improved raw material procurement management, cost control optimization, and market expansion efforts [20]. - The company has been involved in the robotics sector for several years, primarily in industrial robots, and is currently developing humanoid robots, which could positively impact the neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet materials industry once commercialized [20]. - The company's capacity expansion plans are aligned with order and market demand, avoiding blind expansion, and the current overall operating rate is approximately 60%-70% [20]. Summary by Sections 1. Basic Research Information - The research was conducted on March 14, 2025, focusing on the small metals industry, specifically the company Zhongke Sanhuan [13]. 2. Detailed Research Institutions - Various institutions participated in the research, including Fangzheng Securities, Dingfeng Asset Management, Haitong Fund, and others [14]. 3. Research Institution Proportions - The report does not provide specific data on the proportions of research institutions involved [18]. 4. Main Content Information - The company is committed to providing high-quality products and services amidst intense market competition and is actively engaged in research and innovation to capture future market opportunities [20]. - The company is exploring the recycling of magnetic material waste through partnerships with external raw material suppliers [22].

Group 1: Strategic Metals - Strategic metals, particularly antimony, bismuth, and cobalt, have experienced significant price increases, with antimony reaching a historical high recently [1] - The surge in strategic metal prices has ignited the A-share non-ferrous metal sector, leading to a wave of stock price increases for companies like BaoTi Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals [1] - Strategic metals play a crucial role in sectors such as new energy, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence, with expectations of a resurgence in the spring elements periodic table market [1] Group 2: Stock Indices and Financial Markets - The US stock indices saw substantial gains, with major blue-chip stocks driving the market, particularly in the food and beverage and non-bank financial sectors [2] - The total trading volume in the market reached 1.84 trillion yuan, with notable increases in various stock index futures [2] - Continuous favorable policies in the capital market and the catalyzation of technology stocks are expected to lead to a bullish trend in stock indices [2] Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures experienced a slight rebound, with inventory levels increasing as the market awaits demand from resumed operations [3] - Current glass production inventory stands at 62.6 million heavy boxes, reflecting a week-on-week increase [3] - Soda ash futures also saw a minor rebound, with a focus on supply adjustments and inventory changes in the market [3] Group 4: Live Pig Prices - Live pig prices have shown signs of recovery, with the average price recorded at 14.57 yuan/kg, slightly down from the previous day [4] - The market anticipates an increase in live pig supply as the breeding sow inventory recovers, although near-term prices may be pressured by increased second-time fattening sentiment [4] - Long-term projections suggest a potential oversupply in the market, leading to a weak and fluctuating price environment [4] Group 5: International and Domestic News - Germany announced a fiscal plan involving a 500 billion euro fund aimed at infrastructure, climate protection, and defense spending [5] - China's economy is showing signs of recovery, with significant improvements in innovation-driven development and domestic demand potential [6] - Baidu launched its Wenxin large model 4.5 and X1, with competitive pricing compared to GPT-4.5, indicating advancements in AI technology [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the investment strategy of "Technology + Consumption" for 2025, with technology already forming a consensus expectation while the consumption aspect still has potential to be explored [1][9]. - The report identifies two key expectation gaps: the first being that even with weak fiscal expansion, retail sales (社零) will exhibit higher elasticity [2][12]. - The report anticipates that as the fiscal spending cycle transitions from a contraction phase in 2023-2024 to a weak expansion phase in 2025, retail sales will show significant upward elasticity [2][12]. Group 2 - The second expectation gap highlights the easing of local debt pressure on consumption, indicating that provinces with higher debt burdens will see more pronounced rebounds in retail sales in categories such as jewelry, clothing, automobiles, and cosmetics [3][18]. - The report suggests that the market may experience short-term consolidation due to high market sentiment, profit-taking, and the calendar effect of the Two Sessions, but the core driving force of the current market remains unchanged [20][21]. - Industry allocation recommendations include four key sectors: (1) Technology growth focusing on AI and autonomous control, (2) Consumption driven by policy and endogenous recovery, (3) Cost improvement sectors, and (4) Structural opportunities in overseas markets [21][22].