Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates the revenue and profit growth rate of the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The pricing mechanism is determined by the long-term contract system, where the sales price for the next month is based on the last price index of the current month[10] - The model uses the year-on-year changes in price and capacity factors to estimate monthly revenue and profit growth rates[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability, but it relies heavily on the stability of the pricing mechanism and external factors like market demand[10][14] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts the hog supply-demand gap six months ahead based on the breeding sow inventory and historical slaughter coefficients[15] - **Model Construction Process**: - The slaughter coefficient is calculated as: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Breeding Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[15] - The potential supply six months later is estimated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Breeding Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6, YoY)} $[15] - The potential demand six months later is estimated as: $ \text{Potential Demand (t+6)} = \text{Hog Slaughter (t+6, YoY)} $[16] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical data shows that this model effectively identifies hog price upward cycles, making it a valuable tool for supply-demand analysis[16] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth and per-ton profit for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[18] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel to estimate profit growth rates[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a detailed profit analysis but is sensitive to fluctuations in raw material prices and global demand[22] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability changes and generate allocation signals[23] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying short-term profitability trends but requires additional macroeconomic indicators for long-term predictions[30] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates profit growth and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activities[31] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates profit growth rates and cracking spreads using variations in fuel and crude oil prices[31] - Allocation signals are designed based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling activity[31] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of industry profitability but is highly dependent on volatile oil price movements[35] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth Forecast**: Predicted a year-on-year profit decline for June 2025 due to lower coal prices compared to the previous year[14] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: Predicted a balanced supply-demand scenario for Q4 2025, with potential supply and demand both estimated at 18,226 million hogs[17] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth Forecast**: Predicted a slight year-on-year profit decline for May 2025, with PMI rolling averages remaining flat[22] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year decline in gross profit for May 2025[30] - **Cement Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year profit growth for May 2025, driven by price recovery[30] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Refining Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year profit decline for May 2025 due to lower oil prices compared to the previous year[35] - **Oilfield Services**: Observed stable new drilling activity and lower oil prices compared to the previous year, maintaining a neutral outlook[38]

Mergers and Acquisitions - Cixing Co., Ltd. plans to acquire 75% of Shenyang Shunyi Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of issuing shares and cash payments, while also raising supporting funds from no more than 35 qualified investors [1] - United Optoelectronics intends to purchase 100% of Changyi Optoelectronics from 12 shareholders via share issuance and will also raise supporting funds [2] - Inte Group's subsidiary, Inte Pharmaceutical, successfully acquired 100% equity of Zhejiang Huadong Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. for 369 million yuan and signed a transaction contract with the transferor [3] Shareholding Changes - Guokang Biochemical announced that shareholders plan to collectively reduce their holdings by no more than 6% of the company's total shares, with specific plans from two major shareholders to reduce by 3% each [4] - Ruilian New Materials reported that a major shareholder, Guofu Yongyu, plans to reduce its holdings by up to 3.33%, equivalent to 573,110 shares [5] - Hongxin Technology disclosed that two major shareholders, Baiqiang and Taizhou Qixin, plan to reduce their holdings by 2.62% and 2.12% respectively [6] Risk Matters - Sinovac Biotech highlighted the high-tech, high-risk, and high-value characteristics of its innovative drugs, emphasizing the uncertainties involved in the research and approval processes [7] - Zhongheng Design noted that the revenue from its low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace projects is minimal compared to its consolidated financial statements, despite winning several contracts in these sectors [8] Restructuring - *ST Xinyan announced that it received a notice from a creditor applying for the company's restructuring and pre-restructuring procedures [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the search for investment direction amid market volatility and performance uncertainty as June begins [2] - Calendar effects are highlighted as a strategy for identifying opportunities in June, with reports indicating that technology growth sectors tend to outperform during this period [2][6] - Reports from Northeast Securities show that growth stocks have historically outperformed value stocks, with TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) sectors leading in both win rates and returns over the past 20 years [2][6] Group 2 - Some reports focus on "cost-effectiveness" to find opportunities, with East Wu Securities noting that the technology growth sector has become more attractive after adjustments in May [3] - The trading structure as of May 29 indicates that TMT's trading volume has decreased to 27.3%, suggesting a rebound in the cost-effectiveness of the technology growth sector [3] - Huatai Securities recommends dividend-paying assets, citing strong signals from high dividend trends and the current market's risk-averse sentiment [4] Group 3 - Reports also address potential risks, with Tianfeng Securities warning about the high concentration of small-cap stocks, which could lead to increased volatility and risk in the market [6] - The report from China Merchants Securities highlights the challenges facing small-cap stocks as the market approaches the half-year reporting period, suggesting a shift towards larger, quality stocks [6] - The overall market sentiment indicates a lack of clear direction, with various strategies suggesting different approaches to investment opportunities [6] Group 4 - The article notes that industry rotation is a common occurrence in May and June, with expectations for a new structural mainline to emerge as June progresses [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article introduces a "Five-Dimensional Industry Comparison Framework" that evaluates industries based on market style, fundamentals, capital flow, trading, and valuation, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive analysis to guide investment decisions [2][3]. Group 1: Five-Dimensional Framework - The framework assigns equal weight to the five dimensions during non-earnings seasons, while increasing the weight of fundamentals during earnings seasons [2]. - Historical backtesting from 2016 to February 2025 shows that industries with higher scores in the framework tend to perform better, with annualized returns of 11.8% for the top group and -10.5% for the bottom group [3]. Group 2: June Subjective Judgments - The market style is expected to lean towards defensive sectors due to anticipated economic weakness and potential market sentiment decline [4]. - Capital flow is projected to be dominated by ETFs, with public funds likely to see net outflows, leading to higher scores for ETF-heavy industries [4]. - Low-valuation industries are expected to perform better in a declining market sentiment environment [4]. Group 3: June Industry Allocation Views - The article suggests a focus on defensive and low-valuation sectors for June, highlighting industries such as coal, utilities, banking, non-bank financials, construction decoration, and oil and petrochemicals as worthy of investor attention [5].

Group 1: Market Strategy and Industry Outlook - The article suggests that the market style is expected to lean towards defensive and undervalued sectors, with high scores for industries such as coal, public utilities, banking, non-bank financials, construction decoration, and oil and petrochemicals, indicating potential investment opportunities [3] - The PB-ROE-50 strategy has outperformed the CSI 500, CSI 800, and the overall market by 2.39%, 1.30%, and 1.33% respectively, reflecting a strong performance in the current market environment [4] Group 2: Real Estate Sector - In May, the total sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies reached 317.8 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 2.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%. The cumulative sales from January to May showed a year-on-year decline of 8% [5] - Notable performers in May included China State Construction with a 455% increase, Sunac China with a 128% increase, and China Jinmao with a 72% increase, indicating some recovery in high-capacity cities [5] Group 3: Automotive Industry - The automotive market remained stable in May, with new forces expected to lead the industry in intelligent driving innovations. A new round of price wars is causing short-term disruptions, but the outlook for domestic sales in 2025 remains positive due to trade-in incentives [6] - The theme of intelligence in vehicles is anticipated to continue to develop, with a focus on companies capable of high-level autonomous driving and their supply chains [6] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - Up Beauty Co., listed in Hong Kong in 2022, has transformed from a single brand to a multi-brand, all-channel group, with its main brand, Han Shu, ranking second among domestic beauty brands in online GMV for 2024 and showing the fastest growth among leading beauty brands [7] - Peak Technology achieved a revenue of 600 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 45.94%, and a net profit of 222 million, up 27.18%. In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 171 million, a 47.34% year-on-year increase, indicating sustained growth momentum [8]

1 五维行业比较框架介绍。股价表现受多重因素影响，单一指标难以有效指导行业比较。想要做好行业比较，需要对各种可能 影响股价的因素均进行分析并做出综合判断，并且对于未来可能的市场主导因素，应该赋予更高的权重。基于此，我们综合 市场风格、基本面、资金面、交易面、估值五个维度，构建了"五维行业比较框架" ，在非财报季时期，我们对于五个维 度进行等权打分，而在财报季，则给予基本面维度更高权重，并降低市场风格及估值维度的权重。 历史回测来看，五维行业比较框架表现优异，得分越高的行业表现往往更好。通过复盘2016年至2025年2月期间五维行业比 较框架的历史表现，可以发现该框架下得分越高的行业股价表现往往更好，按得分高低将行业依次分为第1组、第2组 、第3 组、第4组、第5组，各组的年化收益率分别为11.8%、1.3%、-1.4%、-7.5%及-10.5%，年化夏普比率分别为0.53、0.06、 -0.07、-0.35及-0.51。若通过做多第1组行业，做空第5组行业构建多空组合，多空组合的年化收益率为23.7%，年化夏普比 率为1.69。 6月主观因素判断。五维行业比较框架中，有三个维度涉及到一些主观判断，这三个维度分 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the China Hong Kong 300 Infrastructure Index has shown positive performance, with a 4.41% increase over the past month, a 7.48% increase over the past three months, and a 7.41% increase year-to-date [1] - The index is composed of selected securities from the China Hong Kong 300 Index, focusing on various industry themes such as banking, transportation, resources, infrastructure, logistics, and leisure [1] - The index was established on December 31, 2004, with a base point of 1000.0 [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted holdings in the China Hong Kong 300 Infrastructure Index include China Mobile (34.26%), CLP Holdings (8.4%), Cheung Kong (7.42%), China Telecom (5.2%), Hong Kong and China Gas (4.89%), Power Assets Holdings (4.71%), China Unicom (3.61%), ENN Energy (3.12%), China Resources Power (2.52%), and CK Infrastructure Holdings (2.41%) [1] - The index's holdings are entirely composed of securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% allocation [1] - In terms of industry composition, telecommunications services account for 52.05%, utilities for 40.92%, construction and decoration for 4.75%, and transportation for 2.28% [1] Group 3 - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Weight factors are adjusted in accordance with the sample adjustments, which are fixed until the next scheduled adjustment unless a special circumstance arises [2] - Companies that are delisted or undergo mergers, acquisitions, or spin-offs are handled according to the calculation and maintenance guidelines [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment score has declined, indicating a bearish outlook for the market as it has ended its upward repair trend [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment Indicators - The market sentiment structure indicator has shown significant fluctuations over the past five years, with a low position for most of 2023, only breaking above 2 in October 2024 [1]. - As of May 30, the market sentiment score was 2.5, down from 2.65 the previous week, suggesting a shift towards a bearish sentiment [1]. - The decline in sentiment is supported by a decrease in industry trading activity and a drop in the PCR combined with VIX indicators, reflecting increased uncertainty in fund sentiment [4][6]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The trading activity score across industries has significantly decreased, indicating a lack of investment themes and weak trends in industry performance [6][13]. - The overall trading volume in the A-share market has dropped, with a notable decline in the first three trading days of May, reaching a low of 1.16 trillion RMB on Friday [8]. - The industry performance shows that sectors like environmental protection, biomedicine, and national defense have maintained positive growth, while sectors like automobiles, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals have seen significant declines [16][17]. Group 3: Short-term Trends - The short-term trend scoring model indicates that sectors such as computer, media, electronics, and biomedicine have shown significant upward trends, with the computer sector's score increasing by 22.22% [19][20]. - The model suggests that small-cap growth stocks are currently favored, with strong signals indicating a preference for this style despite a potential strengthening of value styles [21].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the resilience of domestic demand in China, which is expected to provide a bottom support for the market despite short-term tariff concerns [1] - The manufacturing PMI showed signs of recovery in May, with improved export orders and strong performance in new consumption and consumer goods [1] - The focus for investment should be on sectors that benefit from domestic demand, including beauty care, agriculture, defense, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and retail [1] Group 2 - The market is currently experiencing a limited adjustment space due to a lack of significant external volatility and ongoing domestic policy support [2] - Key investment themes include high-margin assets, technology sector opportunities, and consumer sectors boosted by policy incentives [2] - The article suggests that the technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with short-term attention on undervalued segments [2] Group 3 - A-share market is currently insulated from macroeconomic disturbances, with policies in place to manage risks and support market stability [3] - The technology sector is expected to be a key driver for a structural bull market in the medium term, despite short-term adjustments [3] - There is a continued focus on sectors like pharmaceuticals and precious metals, as well as opportunities in the automotive supply chain [3] Group 4 - Three potential triggers could help A-shares escape the current narrow trading range: developments in US-China relations, increased fiscal spending, and advancements in the technology sector [4] - The article highlights the importance of maintaining strong financing levels in local and national debt to support market activity [4] - The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, is seen as having the potential for a rebound after recent adjustments [4] Group 5 - The market is expected to experience a period of index fluctuation, with a focus on quality indices due to stable economic fundamentals [5] - The article notes that the current funding environment is less favorable for high-concentration small-cap stocks, suggesting a preference for larger, quality stocks [5] - Overall, the market is likely to remain in a state of fluctuation, with a bias towards larger, more stable investments [5] Group 6 - The technology growth style is now considered to be at a favorable entry point after recent adjustments, with a focus on sectors like military and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - The article indicates that the market's trading characteristics are heavily influenced by external uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs [6] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of trading indicators in navigating the current market environment [6] Group 7 - The article suggests that external risks have lessened but warns of potential volatility from US policy changes [7] - Domestic policies are expected to continue supporting the market, with consumption remaining a key driver of economic recovery [7] - Investment themes include domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and low allocation funds, with a defensive market style anticipated [7] Group 8 - The market is currently in a repair phase, with trading sentiment affected by fluctuating US tariff policies and slow trade negotiations [8] - The article highlights the growing influence of long-term capital and regulatory support in stabilizing the A-share market [8] - Recommended sectors for investment include precious metals, public utilities, new consumption, and AI applications [8] Group 9 - Recent high-frequency economic data indicates a weakening trend, which may limit stock market gains [9] - The article notes that certain commodity prices have fallen below last year's levels, and there is a decline in retail financing activity [9] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive, driven by policy support and changes in the AI and new consumption sectors [9] Group 10 - The article discusses the potential for a new "East rises, West falls" trading strategy, driven by a weakening dollar and favorable conditions for non-US assets [10] - It emphasizes that the technology growth sector, particularly AI and related innovations, will be a key focus for upcoming trading opportunities [10] - The article suggests that the upcoming months will see significant developments in technology sectors, which could catalyze market movements [10]

Group 1 - The North Exchange 50 Index increased by 2.82% this week, but trading volume significantly decreased, with an average daily trading volume of 25.44 billion yuan, down 29.23% week-on-week [6][11][19] - Market focus shifted from new consumption to the broader technology sector, with strong performances in innovative pharmaceuticals (Nuo Si Lan De +27.37%) and autonomous driving (Xin An Jie +15.17%, Tong Li Co. +11.27%, Hao Miao Technology +11.10%) [6][11][19] - The North Exchange 50 constituent stock adjustment announcement was released, with Tong Hui Electronics and Yi Nuo Wei added to the index, effective June 16 [6][11][12] Group 2 - The North Exchange 50 index closed at 1408.68 points, reflecting a 2.82% increase [20] - The average PE (TTM) for the North Exchange is 88.80 times, with a median of 50.97 times; the average PE for the ChiNext is 75.13 times, with a median of 34.77 times [25][31] - The trading volume for the North Exchange was 6.347 billion shares this week, a decrease of 24.31% week-on-week, with a total trading value of 127.199 billion yuan, down 29.23% [26][29] Group 3 - This week, there were no new IPOs on the North Exchange; as of May 30, 2025, there are 266 companies listed [33] - The North Exchange saw 10 new companies listed and 3 delisted this week, with a total of 6083 companies on the New Third Board [50][51] - The North Exchange's financing balance was 5.538 billion yuan, an increase of 0.08 billion yuan from the previous week [29]