行 华福证券 轻工制造 2025 年 06 月 08 日 业 研 究 轻工制造 英美烟草 H2 预期提速，618 大促看好国牌突围 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【周观点】各大电商平台 618 大促延续，看好个护&户外运动国牌突围； 晨光携手国漫顶流平台腾讯视频，持续看好公司 IP 战略推进；英美烟草公 告 1H25 业绩前瞻，预计下半年新型烟草板块将显著提速，主要驱动为口 含烟持续强劲、下半年 Vuse Ultra 分阶段推出、以及 GLO HILO 在主流市 场分阶段推出，特别是 HNB 板块增速将受益新品在下半年显著提速。 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524060005) | | lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn | | 相关报告 1、轻工纺服行业周报：618 大促看好个护国牌崛 起，关注智能眼镜新品催化——2025 ...

Chapter 1: Tobacco Logistics Industry Development Environment Analysis - Overview of the tobacco logistics industry's development stages, characteristics, models, and current status of business classification [1] - Analysis of the policy, economic, technological equipment supply, and upstream and downstream industry environments affecting the tobacco logistics sector [1] Chapter 2: Analysis of China's Tobacco Logistics Industry Development - Current status of the tobacco logistics industry in China, including market scale and project characteristics [2] - Development status of tobacco commercial enterprise logistics and SWOT analysis of cigarette commercial enterprises [2] - Analysis of typical regional markets for tobacco logistics, including network construction in Xi'an and distribution conditions in Shijiazhuang [2] - Identification of issues within the tobacco logistics industry and proposed countermeasures [2] Chapter 3: Analysis of Related Industries in China's Tobacco Logistics - Overview of the tobacco products industry, including market operation, regional development, import-export situation, investment, and operational conditions [2] - Overview of the logistics industry, including development status, operational conditions, and future predictions [2] - Current status, issues, and development planning of information technology in tobacco logistics [2] Chapter 4: Analysis of the Development of the Tobacco Internet of Things Market in China - Overview of the domestic and international IoT industry development, including trends and forecasts [2] - Development status and construction of the tobacco IoT in China, including technological advancements and optimization of tobacco circulation processes [2] - Market size predictions for the tobacco IoT in China [2] Chapter 5: Analysis of the Integration and Optimization of China's Tobacco Logistics System - Goals, principles, and content of the integration of the tobacco logistics system [3] - Analysis of the integration types within the tobacco logistics system, including industrial and commercial logistics systems [3] Chapter 6: Analysis of the Competitive Landscape of China's Tobacco Logistics System - Market scale of tobacco logistics system integration projects and analysis of major integrators [3] - Competitive analysis of information technology in tobacco logistics, including technology service providers and market trends [3] Chapter 7: Analysis of Major Enterprises in China's Tobacco Logistics Industry - Operational analysis of major tobacco logistics enterprises, including both domestic and international companies [4] Chapter 8: Analysis of Tobacco Logistics Park Construction in China - Research on the competitiveness of tobacco logistics parks and recent developments in construction and operation [4] Chapter 9: Investment Strategy Planning and Recommendations for China's Tobacco Logistics Market - Analysis of market development trends, production and sales scale predictions, and market size forecasts for the tobacco logistics industry [4] - Analysis of investment characteristics, barriers to entry, risk factors, and profitability within the tobacco logistics sector [4] - Identification of investment opportunities and recommendations for the tobacco logistics industry [4]

近日，一场聚焦农村市场服务创新的研学活动在武汉市蔡甸区热烈开展。为推动"农村综合体"烟草零售 终端建设经验全域推广，武汉市公司各新城区营销部齐聚蔡甸区侏儒山街土东村嘉源百货超市，以"六 区联动"研学探索农网建设发展新路径，旨在为全市乡村振兴发展注入强劲动力。 深化交流，共筑乡村振兴新格局 现场研学，共探终端建设新成果 此次研学活动，以"一区一特色、一站一亮点"的丰富展示，为参访单位提供了多维度的经验借鉴。蔡甸 区局(营销部)表示，这仅仅是开始。下一步，将持续深化交流机制，与各兄弟单位加强沟通协作，推动 资源共享、实现优势互补。以此次活动为契机，加快构建覆盖全市域的农村综合服务网络，不断拓展服 务领域、提升服务质量，让"农村综合体" 在乡村遍地开花。以实际行动助力乡村振兴战略走深走实， 为乡村发展增添更多活力与色彩，在希望的田野上书写烟草行业助力乡村振兴的崭新篇章。(武汉市烟 草公司蔡甸营销部：徐子文) 在农村综合体典范——嘉源百货超市内，"现场参观 + 专题讲解"的沉浸式模式，全方位、立体化地展示 了终端建设的亮眼成果。蔡甸区局(营销部)代表化身"解说员"，详细阐述非烟产品盈利模式，从巧妙搭 配的商品陈列，到 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the innovative "online and offline integration, full-process standardization" service model introduced by the Huangpi District Tobacco Monopoly Bureau to enhance government service efficiency and create a more convenient business environment for the public [1][2] Group 2 - The online service leverages the "Tobacco Government Service Platform," allowing applicants to easily submit seven types of license applications, with an intelligent system that automatically reviews materials and promptly forwards applications to local inspection teams. For instance, a convenience store owner completed a license renewal application in just 2 working days, reducing the approval time by 50% compared to previous processes [1] - The offline service window implements a "one-stop service" approach with an intelligent guidance system, providing material pre-examination and process guidance, effectively achieving the goal of "most run once" to make it easier for the public [1] - To address the challenges faced by rural retail license holders, the inspection team has formed a "mobile service team" equipped with portable inspection devices to reach remote towns, offering on-site application acceptance and legal guidance to special groups [1] - The bureau has established a "three-color warning" mechanism for post-license supervision, implementing graded handling for abnormal operators to balance regulation and service, thereby maintaining a good market order [1] Group 3 - The bureau's management emphasizes the principle of "more data running, less running for the public," utilizing digital reform and refined services to make license management more efficient and transparent [2] - Future plans include exploring an "AI + approval" model to further compress processing times and continuously improve public satisfaction, contributing to the optimization of the business environment [2]

为进一步提升执法效能，稽查大队与邮政、公安等部门建立"信息互通、联合研判、协同处置"工作机 制，定期召开联席会议，强化案件线索互通共享与联合督办。行动期间，累计检查物流企业多家、运输 车辆多台次，立案查处涉烟案件数起，其中部分案件通过跨区域线索联动，成功摧毁跨省非法运输网 络，形成了对违法犯罪活动的强力震慑。 "物流寄递领域已成为涉烟违法活动的重要通道，我们将持续深化科技赋能监管，强化跨部门协同联 动，坚决斩断非法卷烟流通链条。"区局稽查大队负责人表示，下一步将重点加大对偏远乡村物流站点 的常态化巡查力度，结合普法宣传进站点等活动，提升从业者合规意识，进一步拓展监管覆盖范围与治 理深度，全力保障辖区烟草市场平稳有序。(李宗峰) 近期，黄陂区烟草专卖局(以下简称区局)聚焦物流寄递环节涉烟违法活动，创新推行"智慧监管+精准打 击"治理模式，组织开展专项整治行动，有力遏制非法卷烟流通态势，全力维护辖区烟草市场秩序。 区局稽查大队充分依托"智慧监管平台"，通过大数据对物流单号、收货地址、商品类型等关键要素进行 分析研判，精准锁定可疑包裹。同时，整合无人机巡查、路面设卡等多元手段，构建起"天上监测、路 面巡查、线上筛查 ...

报 告 摘 要 逆向投资作为投资领域中独具特色的流派，一直备受市场关注，尽管常被简化为 " 在低位买入，在高位卖出 " ，但其内涵远比这复杂。历史上巴菲特、邓普顿等 投资大师凭借敏锐的市场洞察力，通过逆向操作取得了成功，然而这些案例多依 赖于个人经验和特定情景，难以精准量化。 鉴于此，本文尝试对逆向投资进行量 化 刻画 ，通过引入情绪 Beta ，定量构建了基金经理逆向投资能力因子。实证 结果表明如果基金经理的超额收益更多来自于市场投资者观点趋于一致时，其未 来业绩表现会更好。 一、情绪 Beta 与资产收益 " 逆向 " 是指与大多数投资者不同的投资方向。我们用换手率来代表投资者观点 分歧度，当 投资者分歧度减小、观点趋于一致时 ，逆向投资者更善于在这种环 境下获取超额收益。进一步，我们在资本资产定价模型下构建了情绪 Beta ，以 衡量基金经理的逆向投资能力。实证结果表明在股票、行业和基金等不同资产类 别中，低情绪 Beta 的资产在未来往往有更好的业绩表现。 二、逆向投资能力的量化表达 逆向投资作为投资领域中独具特色的流派，一直备受市场关注。行为金融学的研究发现，市场非理性波动中往往蕴含着丰厚的超额收益 ...

1、行情 题材方面，一方面是来自外围市场大涨股映射，另一方面就是A股的"万物皆可新消费"的炒作。 市场继续"多点开花"，指数呈现集体小幅上涨。 算力、算力租赁板块开盘走强，中电鑫龙（20CM）涨停，亿田智能、润建股份、宏景科技、海南华铁、蕾奥规划等早盘集体大涨； 啤酒、微醺经济概念上午发力，乐惠国际2连板，嘉美包装、永顺泰、峨眉山A、香飘飘等涨停，品渥食品涨超12%，惠泉啤酒、重药控股、莱 茵生物、中国海诚、红棉股份等走强； 珠宝首饰持续爆发走强，潮宏基2连板，莱绅通灵、菜百股份、萃华珠宝、曼卡龙（20CM炸）、明牌珠宝（摸板）等集体涨停； 午后，电子烟、口含烟等发力，劲嘉股份、华宝股份（20CM）、诺邦股份纷纷涨停，紫建电子、胜蓝股份、顺灏股份、赢合科技、小崧股 份、金城医药、润都股份等纷纷跟涨； 此外，饮料、乳业、化妆品、宠物经济等各种消费概念均携手走强，无人驾驶、核聚变、脑科学、低空经济等此前活跃题材今日回落。 截至收盘，沪指、深成指、创业板指分别收涨0.42%、0.87%、1.11%，市场近4000股上涨，1200余股下跌。 2、啤酒 今天其实有两条题材线，一条是外围市场的映射，另一条就是"新消费"。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.11% [1] - The total market turnover reached 1,117.4 billion yuan, an increase of 13.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3,900 stocks rising [1] Group 2: Beer Sector Performance - The beer sector saw significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [3] - The rise in the beer sector is attributed to the ongoing popularity of "new consumption" trends and the "micro-drunk economy," where younger consumers prefer low-alcohol beverages for relaxed social experiences [3] - Qingdao Beer has been recommended by 15 brokerage firms in the last three months, indicating strong investment value, with reasons including resource optimization and market expansion [3] Group 3: Tobacco Sector Activity - The tobacco sector showed active performance, with companies like Jinjia Co. and Huabao Co. hitting the daily limit [4] - Recent regulatory updates from the National Tobacco Monopoly Administration aim to enhance the electronic cigarette regulatory framework, impacting production and market standards [4] - The stock of Hong Kong Tobacco surged over 7%, reaching a historical high, further fueling market enthusiasm for tobacco-related concepts [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Positive factors for the market include favorable views from foreign investment banks and potential tariff benefits, which may boost market sentiment [5] - Analysts suggest that the market adjustment space is limited due to supportive policies, with a focus on structural opportunities [6] - The technology and consumer sectors are expected to remain key investment themes, with high-growth industries such as AI infrastructure and robotics being highlighted [6]

今天， 大消费板块爆发，A股三大指数集体收涨 ，超3900只个股飘红。 截至收盘，上证指数涨0.42%，深证成指涨0.87%，创业板指涨1.11%。全市场成交额近1.18万亿元，较 上一交易日增加136亿元。 板块方面，美容护理、啤酒、铜缆高速连接、服装家纺等板块涨幅居前。 今天， 大消费板块集体爆发。美容护理、啤酒、饮料制造、烟草、旅游及酒店等板块涨幅靠前 。若羽 臣涨停，创历史新高；潮宏基、长白山等多股涨停。 | 板块统计 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 実部 | 行业 | 概念 | 风格 | 地域 | | 9区间回顾 | | | 涨幅 ◆ 主力净流入 ◆ | 领涨股名称 ▶ | | 美容护理 | | 3.92% 18527.11万 水羊股份 | | | | 881182 | | | | | | 啤酒概念 | | 3.85% 27705.13万 品渥食品 | | | | 885780 | | | | | | 铜缆高速连接 | | | 2.90% 87602.05万 | 太辰光 | | 886073 | | | | | | 服装家纺 | | | 2.7 ...

A股4日强势上扬，创业板指涨超1%；港股小幅走高，恒生指数收盘涨0.6%，恒生科技指数涨0.57%。 具体来看，三大股指盘中震荡拉升，深证成指、创业板指较为强势。截至收盘，沪指涨0.42%报3376.2点，深证成指涨0.87%报10144.58点，创业板指涨1.11%报 2024.93点，北证50指数涨约1%；沪深北三市合计成交11776亿元。 场内近4000股飘红，旅游、食品饮料等大消费股集体拉升，有友食品连续两日涨停，香飘飘、西麦食品、长白山等均涨停；黄金概念活跃，萃华珠宝、潮宏基、菜 百股份等连续两日涨停；稀土板块崛起，科恒股份20%涨停，广晟有色连续两日涨停；烟草概念上扬，华宝股份、金时科技、劲嘉股份等涨停；固态电池概念活 跃，诺德股份、龙蟠科技、传艺科技等均涨停；算力概念亦有所表现，汇金股份、奥雅股份等涨停。 港股方面，新消费股表现亮眼，泡泡玛特、蜜雪集团、老铺黄金、毛戈平等均创出新高。此外，烟草股集体大涨，华宝国际、思摩尔国际涨约13%，中烟香港创出 新高。 大消费集体拉升 食品饮料板块盘中强势拉升，截至收盘，品渥食品涨近13%，香飘飘、有友食品、西麦食品等涨停；盐津铺子涨近6%，盘中一度涨超8% ...