新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 全球酒精饮料市场正面临结构性变革，葡萄酒品类与即饮饮品（RTD）之间的竞争格局日益显著。国际葡萄酒及烈酒研究机构IWSR发布的2024年-2025年的 系列市场分析显示，这种竞争已成为消费文化代际更迭的集中体现。数据显示，RTD品类在多个关键市场持续增长，而静态葡萄酒的份额则呈现系统性下 滑。 IWSR指出，在全球消费量份额上，静态葡萄酒已从2019年的11%降至2024年的10%，预计2029年将缩减至9%；同期，RTD份额则从1%增长至2%。面对 RTD在场景渗透、产品迭代和年轻化沟通上的优势，葡萄酒行业该如何应对已成为关键议题。 RTD来势汹汹，葡萄酒怎么办？ 过去几年，酒精饮料市场的版图正在被一组组具体数据重绘。IWSR的追踪研究显示，RTD在全球多个核心市场的增长轨迹清晰而稳定。在美国市场，2019 年至2024年间，RTD销量的年复合增长率高达14%，其总销量现已超越静态与起泡葡萄酒之和。同样，在加拿大市场，RTD销量预计将在2027年超过静态葡 萄酒，这与静态葡萄酒份额的普遍下滑形成了鲜明对比。 这种转变的驱动力是系统性的，并被消费者调研 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Overview - The US Q3 2025 GDP growth rate is 4.3%, significantly above market expectations, with consumer resilience and AI investments contributing one-third of this year's growth [10] - Japan has passed a large-scale fiscal budget plan for 2026, leading to a rapid increase in Japanese bond yields to 2.11%, which has exerted some pressure on the US dollar index due to yen appreciation [10] - The domestic industrial profit decline has widened in November, with a slight month-on-month increase in profit margins after adjusting for high base effects, but still weaker than seasonal trends [10] Group 2: Market Strategy - The bond market experienced narrow fluctuations from December 22 to 26, with a steepening curve; liquidity easing has improved short-term performance, while long-term remains volatile due to concerns about the post-year-end market [11] - The A-share market has seen a continuous rebound due to the resolution of structural differentiation and positive signals from the Central Economic Work Conference, alongside a strengthening yuan [11] - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a phase of benefiting from liquidity while facing weak fundamentals, with the improvement of the price level in 2026 being crucial [11] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The alcohol beverage and black metallurgy industries are dragging down overall profit growth, while the recovery in export growth is benefiting sectors like computer communications, automotive, electrical machinery, and specialized equipment [10] - The technology growth sector is expected to outperform as the crowding effect eases, although further recovery in PPI and profits is still awaited [11] - The oil market is under pressure due to weak demand, continuous supply release, and inventory accumulation [12]

土耳其政府正在计划在2026年对关键商品和服务(包括车用燃料)实施小幅加税，这是政府为帮助央行遏 制通胀所采取的最新举措。据媒体报道称，不愿具名的知情人士透露，土耳其政府官员预计将把燃料相 关税费和受管制价格的上调幅度控制在与货币当局明年通胀目标一致的水平，旨在帮助央行实现明年底 16%的通胀目标。 土耳其财政与金融部未立即回应置评请求。 知情人士表示，通常在每年第一周内正式公布的半年度税收措施将显示，汽油和柴油的税费涨幅将低于 法律法规所指示的幅度，意味着增速将更为温和。此举凸显埃尔多安领导的土耳其政府承诺帮助土耳其 央行央行实现其到2026年末将通胀从上月的逾31%大幅降至16%的下一年年度锚定目标。 2025年年初的上调幅度也略低于该测算公式所暗示的水平，因为土耳其当局试图抑制价格压力。 新一年的措施还将针对所谓的"受管制价格"，即所有由政府和监管机构直接设定或影响的商品与服务。 包括烟草、酒精饮料以及能源均属于这一类别。 土耳其财政与金融部长Mehmet Simsek上月表示，部分税费的上调将以目标通胀为依据，而不是以 25.5%的重估率为数据依据——后者是一项与生产者价格通胀趋于一致的指标。 根据土 ...

上述规则修改遵循的是韩国今年3月颁布的《国民健康促进法》修正案。强制带新图标的规定将自明年9 月19日起正式施行，以便为行业提供准备期。 目前，韩国酒精饮料包装上有关饮酒危害的警示以文字为主。很多韩国人认为这样的警示效果太弱。 韩国保健福祉部29日说，从明年9月开始，所有酒精饮料都要在包装上出现图标，警示饮酒后开车和孕 期饮酒危害，以加大警示力度。 据保健福祉部官员向韩联社披露，新规实施后，啤酒、韩国烧酒以及所有其他含酒精饮料都要带警示图 标，以便消费者在饮酒前就认识到其中所含风险。图标上要有酒瓶、小汽车和孕妇图案等。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report highlights a divergence in the performance of the consumer sector within the S&P 500, with non-essential consumer goods up 5.06% and essential goods down 0.55% in the year-to-date [1] Group 1: Non-Essential Consumer Goods - Southwest Airlines (LUV.US) has seen a year-to-date decline of 3.7% and is rated "Underweight" by Morgan Stanley, with a Seeking Alpha quant rating of 2.91, due to overly aggressive Q4 earnings guidance and the highest valuation among analysts' coverage, projecting a P/E ratio of 13x by 2026 [1] - Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US) has experienced a slight year-to-date drop of 0.3% and is also rated "Underweight" with a quant score of 2.70, facing potential demand issues as federal EV tax credits expire in 2025 and changes in compliance penalties threaten its business model [2] - Krispy Kreme (DNUT.US) has seen a significant stock decline of 65.5%, rated "Underweight" with a quant score of 1.11, primarily due to a high-leverage balance sheet affecting U.S. business recovery and uncertainty in international asset restructuring [3] - Shake Shack (SHAK.US) has dropped 28.4% and is rated "Underweight" with a quant score of 2.86, as its high pricing strategy limits expansion potential, necessitating a balance between high ingredient costs and customer frequency [3] Group 2: Essential Consumer Goods - Brown-Forman (BF.B.US) has faced a year-to-date decline of 26.7% and is rated "Underweight" with a quant score of 1.78, as its core brand Jack Daniel's whiskey continues to lose market share amid structural pressures on global alcohol consumption, despite its stock trading at a 20% premium to peers [2] - Beyond Meat (BYND.US) has seen a drastic stock drop of 42%, rated "Underweight" with a quant score of 1.13, as its market share in plant-based meat continues to shrink, leading to ongoing losses and a deteriorating balance sheet [2]

Core Insights - Greece has the highest alcohol beverage prices in Europe, with a price index of 154 in 2024, which is 54% higher than the EU average, ranking third in the EU and highest in the Mediterranean region [1] Pricing Factors - The high prices are attributed to Greece's elevated consumption tax and value-added tax (VAT) [1] - Greece's consumption tax is 35% higher than the EU average, contributing significantly to the overall cost [1] - The combined effect of consumption tax and VAT accounts for 55% of the retail price of alcoholic beverages in Greece [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 Brand Finance report highlights the global alcoholic beverage market's shift towards health-conscious consumption and premiumization, with non-alcoholic and low-alcohol (NoLo) drinks emerging as significant growth areas [2][10][30]. Industry Trends - The NoLo segment is rapidly expanding, particularly in the beer category, with non-alcoholic beer drinkers showing a higher interest in sports and fitness [2][30]. - Premiumization is a key trend, with consumers opting for higher-quality, premium-priced products, especially among younger and more diverse demographics [2][32]. Beer Market Overview - Corona Extra retains its position as the most valuable beer brand globally, valued at $13.4 billion, marking a 29% increase from the previous year [3][20]. - Heineken and Budweiser follow as the second and third most valuable beer brands, valued at $12.9 billion and $11.86 billion, respectively [3]. - Asian brands are gaining traction, with China's Snow Beer valued at $4.66 billion and Tsingtao at $3.634 billion, the latter having the highest brand strength index (BSI) at 95.6 [3][4]. Spirits Market Overview - Moutai continues to dominate the spirits category with a brand value of $58.377 billion, a 16.5% increase, maintaining its position for ten consecutive years [5][20]. - Wuliangye ranks second with a brand value of $27.778 billion, growing by 7.3% [5]. - Don Julio, a tequila brand, is noted for its strong brand strength, with a BSI of 94.2, despite a lower brand value of $1.6 billion [5][20]. Champagne and Wine Market Overview - Moët & Chandon leads the champagne and wine category with a brand value of $2.072 billion, reflecting a 49% increase [7][20]. - Barefoot and Penfolds follow, valued at $1.235 billion and $1.134 billion, respectively, with Penfolds achieving a BSI of 86.2 [7][8]. Brand Strategy Insights - Successful brands leverage cultural resonance and youth engagement, as seen with Guinness's introduction of its non-alcoholic variant, which has improved its perception among younger consumers [9]. - Sustainability is becoming a critical competitive factor, with brands like Mumm and Mahou leading in environmental and social governance (ESG) assessments [9]. Overall Market Outlook - The report indicates that the global alcoholic beverage market is evolving, with brands needing to balance traditional heritage with modern consumer demands to maintain leadership [10].

Core Insights - The report from Brand Finance reveals that Chinese alcoholic beverage brands continue to dominate the global market, with the industry valued at $123.38 billion, reflecting a 5.2% increase from 2024 [1] Beer Segment - Snow Beer is recognized as the most valuable beer brand in China, with a brand value of $4.66 billion, marking an 8.6% year-on-year growth and ranking sixth globally [1] - Tsingtao Beer saw a significant brand value increase of 42.3%, reaching $3.63 billion, and rose three positions to ninth in the global beer brand ranking [2] - Yanjing Beer experienced a 21.5% growth in brand value, reaching $640 million, and improved its ranking by seven places to 38th [2] Spirits Segment - Six Chinese liquor brands made it to the top ten in the global spirits brand value ranking, with Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Fenjiu maintaining the top four positions [3] Wine Segment - Zhangyu is the only Chinese wine brand listed, with a brand value increase of 16.1% to $820 million, solidifying its position among the top five global wine brands [4] Global Brand Leaders - Corona Extra retained its title as the most valuable beer brand globally, valued at $13.36 billion [5] - Jack Daniel's remains the most valuable whiskey brand with a value of $4.44 billion [5] - Crown Vodka's brand value grew by 33.3% to $2.93 billion, maintaining its leading position in the vodka category [5] Industry Trends - The Chinese alcoholic beverage industry is experiencing four key development trends: accelerated premiumization, deepened internationalization, innovation-driven competition, and cultural empowerment reshaping brand value [5]

Group 1 - The EU is demanding immediate tariff reductions for key industries in any trade agreement reached with the US before the July 9 deadline, but expects some level of inequality in the agreement [1] - The EU has accepted a 10% baseline tariff as a non-negotiable bottom line while pushing for a principle agreement, with specific details to be finalized later [1] - Brussels is seeking to restore baseline tariffs to pre-Trump levels or achieve zero tariffs for specific industries, including alcoholic beverages and medical technology products currently subject to a 10% tariff [1] Group 2 - The EU's key demands include the elimination of a 25% tariff on automobiles and parts, and an immediate reduction of the recently increased 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum products [2] - The EU considers the automobile tariff a "red line," highlighting a fundamental conflict with the US, which aims to revitalize its automotive industry while the EU seeks to open its market due to high energy costs and competition from China [2] - The EU insists that any initial agreement should lead to immediate tariff reductions rather than waiting for a final agreement to be signed, with several member states stating that an agreement lacking this clause would be unacceptable [2] Group 3 - The EU Commission has informed its 27 member states that the negotiation outcomes could range from successfully signing a framework agreement to the US expanding its tariff range [3] - If immediate tariff reductions are not achieved, Brussels may face a dilemma of either accepting significantly imbalanced terms or initiating countermeasures [3] - Another possibility is extending the negotiation deadline, with the US Treasury Secretary indicating that any decision to delay rests with President Trump, but all agreements must be completed by September 1 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The new tariffs have not immediately increased the costs affecting the U.S. consumer price index for April, indicating a stable pricing environment for various consumer goods [1] Price Changes - In April, clothing prices decreased by 0.2% month-over-month, while new car prices remained unchanged from March [1] - Overall, core goods prices rose by 0.1% in the same month [1] - Footwear prices saw a notable decline of 0.5% in April, raising concerns as many shoes are imported from Asia [1] - The prices of alcoholic beverages, which account for approximately 15% of U.S. agricultural imports, remained stable compared to March [1]