行 业 研 究 华福证券 "小确幸"消费趋势解读—新消费专题 投资要点： 什么是新消费？——小确幸消费趋势 行 业 定 期 报 告 量价角度的思考：1）量：细分群体扩散，消费行为学习→新消费 不依赖经济增长β，有独立消费趋势，不依赖总量需求增长，而是小 部分群体的消费行为扩散。2）价：新消费不一定具备性价比但有情绪 价值，毛利率相对高，受主力消费人口消费习惯的代际变化影响，从 省吃俭用配置重资产变为高频"小确幸"型消费。 文旅：长白山暑期 7 月客流数据实现高增，持续关注下半年"海 南封关"主题。 2025 年 7 月，长白山主景区共接待游客 81.02 万人次，同比增长 37.8%，为历年 7 月份单月接待游客数量之最，也突破历年来单月接待 游客数量之最，创单月历史新高，长白山避暑游+盗墓笔记周年庆概念 有望带动三季度业绩高兑现。同时建议关注海南封关相关信息对于海 南离岛免税板块的催化。近期官宣 2025 年 12 月 18 日海南自贸港将正 式启动封关运作，封关后预计总计 85 个国家的人员可免签入境海南， 海南离岛免税整体用户基数大幅增长，有望加强业绩兑现能力。 潮玩：近期政策聚焦消费刺激和行业规范，短 ...

Group 1 - The forum focused on the theme "AI-driven and Organizational Leap," addressing key issues such as compliance in global employment, organizational construction, and the application of AI technology in the context of globalization [2][3] - The president and CEO of Yonyou Xinfu Society emphasized the need for Chinese enterprises to reconstruct their human resource management systems to adapt to global challenges and opportunities [3] - The forum featured various industry leaders and experts who shared practical insights and strategies for Chinese companies looking to expand internationally [2][4][10] Group 2 - The first speaker, Liu Minlian from Xiandao Technology, shared practical experiences in local employment management, tax risk response, and cultural integration for companies entering overseas markets [4] - Liu highlighted the importance of standardized management, localized empowerment, and cost control, suggesting the use of global HR service providers to manage regional affairs efficiently [4] - The session on global talent deployment discussed the core pain points in expatriate management, with insights from a global 500 company HRD on the need for clear distinctions between short-term business trips and long-term assignments [5] Group 3 - The AI product launch showcased Yonyou Xinfu Society's capabilities in addressing human resource challenges faced by companies going global, emphasizing the importance of a resilient HR system [7][8] - The TalentSeek AI recruitment tool was introduced, which claims to enhance efficiency by over six times and reduce costs to below 5% of traditional methods, connecting over 1 billion talent resources globally [8] - The insurance segment discussed the importance of customized insurance solutions for overseas employees, addressing various risks faced by companies operating internationally [9] Group 4 - A panel discussion included experts from seven renowned HR service providers across five continents, sharing strategies and insights on global employment practices and compliance policies [10][11] - The forum concluded with a commitment from Yonyou Xinfu Society to continue enhancing global HR services, leveraging digital technology to support Chinese enterprises in achieving organizational leaps and talent breakthroughs [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market performance [3]. Core Insights - The new social security regulations, effective from September 1, 2025, will significantly enhance the social security coverage for 240 million flexible workers and 88.45 million employees in small and micro enterprises, thereby boosting consumer confidence and promoting high-quality development in the service industry [3][4]. - The combination of the new social security regulations and the "dual interest subsidy" policies aims to alleviate the financial pressure on enterprises while enhancing the long-term consumption capacity of residents [3][4]. - The new regulations are expected to increase compliance costs for small and micro enterprises, leading to a potential market consolidation where larger, compliant firms gain market share [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Social Security Status in China - The social security system primarily covers urban non-private unit employees with a near 100% participation rate, while flexible employment and private sector workers have significantly lower coverage [8][9]. - The disparity in coverage reflects systemic differences between formal and informal employment, necessitating policy adjustments to enhance inclusivity [9]. 2. Interpretation of New Social Security Regulations and Loan Subsidy Policies 2.1 Background and Core Content - The new regulations aim to standardize social security contributions and enhance the responsibilities of employers, addressing the challenges posed by the increasing number of flexible workers and the aging population [15][19]. - The regulations prohibit agreements that exempt employers from paying social security, allowing workers to terminate contracts and seek compensation [19][20]. 2.2 Loan Subsidy Policies - The loan subsidy policies, effective from March 16 to December 31, 2025, provide financial support to key service sectors, including catering and tourism, to mitigate the short-term financial impact of the new social security regulations [22][24]. - These policies are designed to stimulate consumption and support the transition of the service industry from price competition to quality competition [22][24]. 3. International Comparison of Social Security Regulations - China's social security contribution rate is moderate compared to global standards, with room for improvement in balancing coverage among different income groups [27][28]. - The new regulations are aligned with international trends towards standardized social security systems, which may lead to short-term challenges for small enterprises but ultimately promote fair competition and industry upgrades [32][33].

Group 1 - Gartner predicts that by 2028, one in four job applicant profiles will be fake, based on a survey of 3,000 job seekers, where 6% admitted to manipulating their interviews [2][5] - The rise of AI-generated deepfake images, voice synthesis technology, and chatbots is making cheating more covert and efficient, targeting remote, technical, and high-paying positions [3][5] - AI is being used as a "new engine" for fraud, allowing impersonators to present themselves as highly skilled candidates, using voice cloning and deepfake video technology to deceive interviewers [5][6] Group 2 - Companies like Google, Cisco, and McKinsey are reverting to in-person interviews to verify candidates' authenticity and skills, as remote interviews have been exploited by fraudsters [6] - The shift back to face-to-face interviews is a reluctant response to the challenges posed by AI's ability to create convincing impersonations, leading to a crisis of trust in the hiring process [6] - Gartner emphasizes the need for enhanced verification processes in recruitment, as the potential for fake candidate profiles increases significantly [6]

Group 1 - The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the U.S. financial market is significant, with companies like Nvidia (NVDA.US) reaching a market capitalization of nearly $4.5 trillion, while startups like OpenAI and Anthropic have raised billions [1] - Investors are increasingly concerned about the potential disruption caused by AI, leading to sell-offs in stocks of companies expected to see declining demand due to AI advancements, including Wix.com (WIX.US), Shutterstock (SSTK.US), and Adobe (ADBE.US) [1][5] - Since mid-May, the performance of the group of companies identified as most at risk from AI has lagged the S&P 500 index by approximately 22 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Daniel Newman, CEO of Futurum Group, indicated that the anticipated impact of AI on service-oriented industries may occur sooner than expected, potentially within two years instead of five [2] - Major tech companies like Microsoft (MSFT.US) and Meta (META.US) are investing hundreds of billions into AI research, causing investors to adopt a more cautious stance [5] - By 2025, Wix.com and Shutterstock's stock prices are projected to drop by at least 33%, while Adobe's stock is expected to decline by 23% due to fears of clients shifting to AI-generated content [5] Group 3 - Investor sentiment is turning negative as AI changes how information is accessed and how businesses operate, with even leading tech firms like Microsoft reducing jobs to allocate more resources for AI investments [6] - Gartner Inc. recently lowered its revenue forecasts, resulting in a 30% drop in its stock price, highlighting the market's concerns about AI's disruptive potential [6][9] - Historical precedents exist where new technologies have replaced old industries, raising fears that many companies may become obsolete due to AI [9] Group 4 - The current market dynamics show that AI is a dominant factor in determining stock winners and losers, contrasting with earlier concerns about competition from low-cost AI models in China [10] - Major companies like Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon are expected to invest approximately $350 billion in capital expenditures this fiscal year, a nearly 50% increase from the previous year, primarily for AI infrastructure [10] - Google is seen as well-positioned in the AI landscape, yet it is also included in the basket of companies assessed for AI risk, indicating ongoing concerns about its stock performance [10] Group 5 - Companies in the advertising sector, such as Omnicom Group, are facing significant challenges, with Omnicom's stock down 15% due to competition from AI-driven advertising solutions [11] - WPP, a competitor, has seen its stock price drop over 50%, reflecting the pressure on traditional advertising models from AI advancements [11][12] - Analysts predict that the investment theme surrounding AI risks will continue to gain traction as many companies face potential threats from AI technologies [12]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Market Perform" [31] Core Insights - The consumer service industry index experienced a decline of 2.17% from July 25 to August 7, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 1.35 percentage points, primarily due to adverse weather conditions affecting travel data and declining performance in some companies' semi-annual reports [7][8] - In the first half of 2025, the total number of domestic trips reached 3.285 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, with total spending of 3.15 trillion yuan, up 15.2% [22] - Recent heavy rainfall has led to the temporary closure of several tourist attractions, impacting the tourism and hotel sectors [23] - Positive policy signals have emerged, including subsidies for childbirth and reductions in childcare fees, indicating potential future support for consumption and fertility [31] Summary by Sections Market Review - The consumer service index has shown a decline, with significant underperformance compared to the CSI 300 index [7] - The tourism and hotel sectors have been particularly affected by recent heavy rainfall, while the education sector has seen an uptick due to supportive policies [8] Industry News - The South Korean government will implement a temporary visa exemption for Chinese group tourists starting September 29, 2025, which has led to a surge in travel searches [20] - The introduction of a new membership system by Taobao integrates various services, enhancing travel-related benefits for users [21] Company Announcements - Action Education proposed a mid-year dividend distribution of 10 yuan per 10 shares [24] - Huangshan Tourism plans to invest in a new subsidiary and participate in a land bidding process [25] - China Duty Free Group reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but maintained a strong market position in Hainan [29] Weekly Outlook - The report suggests focusing on companies that may benefit from the current market conditions, including China Duty Free Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and others in the cyclical sectors [31][32]

Group 1 - The article discusses the emergence of new professions in the AI era and how AI is reshaping career paths and income sources [4][6][19] - It highlights the potential for AI to create new job opportunities while also replacing traditional roles, particularly in knowledge-based sectors [7][15][17] - The conversation emphasizes the need for individuals to adapt by acquiring new skills and embracing AI technology to remain competitive in the job market [18][20][47] Group 2 - The article explores the concept of income decoupling from traditional professions, suggesting that individuals may increasingly rely on multiple income sources from various jobs [15][19][21] - It notes the rise of gig and freelance work, where individuals can engage in short-term tasks or projects, reflecting a shift in work dynamics [16][19][22] - The discussion includes the importance of soft skills and adaptability in the evolving job landscape, as employers seek candidates who can navigate multiple roles and responsibilities [24][47] Group 3 - The article addresses the changing educational landscape, emphasizing the need for educational institutions to align curricula with market demands and technological advancements [26][30][32] - It suggests that practical experience, such as internships, is crucial for students to enhance their employability and adapt to the fast-paced job market [35][46] - The conversation also highlights the importance of breaking down traditional perceptions of job hierarchies, encouraging individuals to pursue diverse career paths without stigma [39][40]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][72] Core Insights - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the AI+ education sector, particularly with the recent launch of AI education products by several companies, which are expected to see significant revenue growth [5][42] - The tourism sector is expected to benefit from the construction of the Yajiang Hydropower Station, which will significantly increase tourist traffic in Tibet, particularly in the Linzhi and Ali regions [3][20] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start its closure operations on December 18, 2025, which will allow visa-free entry for individuals from 85 countries, potentially boosting the duty-free market in Hainan [3][14] Summary by Sections Duty-Free and Scenic Areas - The report highlights the positive impact of the Yajiang Hydropower Station on the tourism sector in Tibet, with major scenic spots expected to benefit from increased visitor numbers [3][20] - The upcoming closure of Hainan is anticipated to significantly enhance the user base for duty-free shopping, improving performance for related companies [3][14] Trendy Consumer Goods - The report notes that recent policies focusing on consumer stimulation and industry regulation are likely to support short-term operational expectations for the trendy consumer goods sector [4][21] Education - The report discusses the advancements in AI+ education, with several companies launching new AI products that are expected to see a surge in revenue [5][42] Medical Aesthetics - The medical aesthetics industry is undergoing optimization through refined operations, with leading institutions expected to capture more market share [5][43] - The report suggests monitoring the release of new products and innovations in the medical aesthetics sector [5][48] Employment - The employment situation remains stable, with a slight decrease in the urban survey unemployment rate, indicating a positive outlook for the labor market [51] Gold and Jewelry - The report indicates that gold prices remain high, with retail sales in the gold and jewelry sector showing signs of recovery [56][62]

Group 1 - The core event is a joint recruitment activity held in Yiwu, involving over 1,000 job positions, organized by the local human resources and social security bureau along with departments from Zhangjiagang, Wenzhou, and Shaoxing [1] - Yiwu is a significant export hub in China, with a total import and export value of 405.83 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 25% and accounting for 14.9% of Zhejiang province's total [1] - The export value reached 358.63 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of the WAIC exhibition on AI and consumer opportunities, particularly in the tourism and education sectors [2][4] - The construction of the Yajiang Hydropower Station is expected to significantly boost tourism in Tibet, benefiting leading companies in the region [3][25] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start operations on December 18, 2025, which will enhance the user base for duty-free shopping and improve performance in the sector [3][15][17] Summary by Sections 1. Duty-Free and Scenic Areas - The Yajiang Hydropower Station is expected to increase tourist traffic in Tibet, particularly in the Linzhi and Ali regions, which host several national scenic spots [3][22][25] - The Hainan Free Trade Port's upcoming closure will allow visa-free entry for citizens from 85 countries, significantly increasing the user base for duty-free shopping [15][17] 2. Medical Aesthetics - The medical aesthetics industry is experiencing a recovery, with a focus on refined operations and market share optimization among leading institutions [26] - New product releases from upstream manufacturers are anticipated to enhance market dynamics, with companies like JINBO and Sihuan Pharmaceutical being highlighted for their innovative offerings [26][29] 3. Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty and personal care sector is undergoing a transformation due to the "traffic tax" policy, which is expected to increase market concentration among leading brands [37][39] - The demand for mosquito repellent products is rising due to the spread of the Chikungunya virus, benefiting companies like Runben [38][39] 4. Trendy Toys - Recent policies focusing on consumer stimulation and industry regulation are expected to support the performance of compliant leading companies in the trendy toy sector [40] 5. Education - The report emphasizes the progress in AI+Education, with several companies launching AI education products that are expected to see significant revenue growth [4][50] - Notable companies in this space include DouShen Education and ShengTong Education, which are introducing innovative AI-driven educational platforms [44][50]