以下文章来源于锦缎研究院 ，作者费曼 锦缎研究院 . 专注上市公司价值发现与传播 来 源 丨锦缎 （ID：jinduan006 ） 作者丨 费曼 图源丨 midjourney 2019 年上市的人造肉网红 Beyond meat （ BYND ），只过了 6 年，就已经被传言要破产了。这 固然危言耸听，但也确实反映了这家公司难以为继的生存实况—— 从 2011 年种子轮融资以来，加上 IPO ，合计融了 16.9 亿美金，Beyond meat （ BYND ）从 2021 年最高 200 亿美金（合计人民币超千亿）市值开始，跌去了 99% 的价值，现在只剩不到 2 亿美元的残值。 Beyond meat股价月K图 过去十年中，人造肉市场规模的复合增速仅为 10%。 对于被寄予厚望、将颠覆传统动物肉市场的超 级新星来说，这一增速显然是不够看的。 在上市之初，市场预测未来植物肉会达到植物奶在牛奶市场的相应占比，至少是个 200-300 亿美金 的市场。 然而时至今日，故事已成幻觉。 人造肉，贵是原罪 人造肉市场增速缓慢的原因有很多，但其中一个不可回避的因素，是这种"新生活方式"所代表的极高 成本。 即使是今天， ...

Core Viewpoint - Beyond Meat, a prominent player in the plant-based meat industry, is facing severe financial difficulties, with its market value plummeting by 99% from a peak of $20 billion to approximately $200 million, reflecting the challenges in sustaining its business model and growth trajectory [6][8][25]. Market Growth and Challenges - The plant-based meat market has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 10% over the past decade, which is insufficient for a sector expected to disrupt traditional meat markets [8]. - The high production cost of plant-based meat, exceeding $7 per kilogram, significantly hampers its competitiveness against traditional meats like beef ($6), pork ($2.5), and chicken ($2) [11][12]. Cost and Market Dynamics - The inability to reduce production costs has resulted in plant-based meat remaining a niche product, while traditional poultry has seen a CAGR of 19% due to its low cost [12]. - The high costs associated with plant-based meat are a primary barrier to market expansion, as consumers prioritize affordability [11]. Technological Stagnation - The article discusses a broader trend of technological stagnation over the past 50 years, which has hindered advancements in agricultural productivity and livestock breeding, leading to persistent high prices for traditional meats [18][24]. - The expectation that technological advancements would lead to lower costs in plant-based meat production has not materialized, contrasting with other sectors where costs have decreased significantly [14][24]. Environmental and Social Considerations - The push for plant-based meat is tied to environmental concerns and a social movement aimed at reducing carbon footprints and promoting sustainable consumption [14][15]. - Influential figures, such as Bill Gates, have shifted their focus to alternative protein sources, like insect protein, which presents a lower cost option compared to plant-based meat [23]. Conclusion - The decline of Beyond Meat's market value serves as a reflection of the challenges faced by the plant-based meat industry in overcoming cost barriers and achieving sustainable growth in a competitive landscape [25].

Group 1 - Beyond Meat, a prominent player in the plant-based meat industry, has seen its market value plummet from a peak of $20 billion in 2021 to less than $200 million, reflecting severe financial distress [1] - The plant-based meat market has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 10% over the past decade, which is insufficient for a sector expected to disrupt traditional meat markets [2][4] - Initial market predictions estimated the plant-based meat market could reach $20-30 billion, but current realities suggest this vision has not materialized [3][4] Group 2 - One of the primary challenges facing the plant-based meat industry is its high production costs, with the cost of producing one kilogram of plant-based meat exceeding $7, compared to $6 for beef, $2.5 for pork, and $2 for chicken [5][6] - The high costs hinder the ability of plant-based meat products to compete effectively against traditional meat producers, limiting their market expansion [6][9] - The past decade has seen a significant increase in the poultry market, with a CAGR of 19%, largely due to the low production costs associated with chicken [9] Group 3 - The plant-based meat sector has not achieved the promised cost reductions through economies of scale, unlike the plant-based milk sector [12] - The movement towards plant-based meat is often associated with environmentalism and social movements, attracting investments from wealthy individuals like Bill Gates [12][26] - Gates has shifted his focus to investing in insect protein, which has a production cost closer to $2, indicating a search for more sustainable protein sources [25][26] Group 4 - The narrative surrounding plant-based meat reflects broader trends in technology and resource management, with concerns about resource limitations and the sustainability of traditional meat production [10][14] - The stagnation in agricultural productivity and livestock breeding over the past 50 years highlights the challenges in achieving significant advancements in food production technology [29] - The quest for breakthroughs in resource management continues, with industry leaders hoping for a technological revolution akin to a "ChatGPT moment" to overcome existing limitations [30][31]

Core Insights - Beyond Meat has experienced a dramatic decline in market value, dropping from a peak of $20 billion in 2021 to less than $200 million today, representing a 99% loss [1] - The plant-based meat market has only seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% over the past decade, which is insufficient for a product expected to disrupt the traditional meat market [3] - The high production costs of plant-based meat, exceeding $7 per kilogram, compared to $6 for beef, $2.5 for pork, and $2 for chicken, significantly hinder its competitiveness in the market [4] Market Dynamics - The slow growth of the plant-based meat market is attributed to its high costs, making it a niche product in a market dominated by traditional meat producers [4] - The past decade has seen a trend of "fake technology," where advancements have not led to the expected cost reductions in plant-based meat production, unlike other sectors such as e-commerce and renewable energy [6] - The environmental movement has driven interest in plant-based meat, but the lack of scalable cost reductions has led to disillusionment among investors [6][12] Technological Stagnation - The stagnation in technological advancements over the past 50 years has limited breakthroughs in agricultural productivity and livestock breeding, contributing to the high costs of meat production [10][16] - The concept of resource scarcity has been a driving force behind the push for alternative protein sources, such as insect-based proteins, which are seen as more sustainable and cost-effective [12][13] Future Outlook - Bill Gates has shifted his focus from plant-based meat to insect protein, which has a production cost closer to $2 per kilogram, indicating a potential new direction for sustainable protein sources [12][13] - The search for breakthroughs in agricultural technology continues, with hopes for a "ChatGPT moment" in the physical world to overcome resource constraints [16]

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of "Meme stocks" is driven by social media discussions and a surge of retail investors, leading to significant price volatility without fundamental changes in the companies involved [1][4]. Group 1: Characteristics of Meme Stocks - Meme stocks often share common traits, including the ability to spark collective imagination among internet users and gaining traction from influential retail investors on social media [2]. - These stocks typically have high short interest, indicating that professional investors are betting against them, and they often have lower share prices [3]. Group 2: Market Environment Comparison - The current market environment in 2025 differs fundamentally from that of 2021, with high interest rates and uncertain tariff policies, which should suppress risk appetite; however, speculative trading has become active again [4]. - The number of stocks involved in the current wave is fewer than in 2021, but the volatility is more pronounced and the price increases are short-lived [4]. Group 3: Trading Dynamics - For instance, Opendoor's stock surged by 43% on July 21, with a trading volume of 1.9 billion shares, accounting for about 10% of total U.S. stock trading that day [4]. - The surge in stocks like Kohl's and Krispy Kreme was driven by short squeeze dynamics, where short sellers are forced to buy back shares, pushing prices higher [4]. Group 4: Risks and Ethical Concerns - Trading in Meme stocks carries high risks as the motivations for buying are often unrelated to the companies' fundamentals, leading to significant volatility [5]. - The ethical implications of social media influencers affecting stock prices are debated, with concerns about undisclosed information regarding their holdings and motivations [9]. Group 5: Sustainability of Meme Stock Trends - The sustainability of Meme stock trends relies on continuously attracting new investors, which has proven difficult in the current market environment compared to the pandemic period [10]. - Historical patterns show that the price surges of Meme stocks are often short-lived, as evidenced by the rapid decline of stocks like Faraday Future [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in the stock price of Beyond Meat, which rose over 13% in pre-market trading, driven by rising beef prices in the U.S. [1] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that beef prices have increased nearly 9% since January, reaching a historical high of $9.26 per pound [1]

Group 1 - The artificial meat sector experienced a decline of 1.02%, ranking among the top losers in the concept sector, with companies like Aipu Co., Shuanghui Development, and Jinzi Ham leading the declines [1][2] - Among the artificial meat stocks, four companies saw price increases, with Xue Rong Biological rising by 1.27%, Shandong Heda by 0.99%, and Shuangta Food by 0.38% [1][2] - The artificial meat concept sector faced a net outflow of 100 million yuan from main funds, with 14 stocks experiencing net outflows, led by Shuanghui Development with a net outflow of 33.72 million yuan [2][3] Group 2 - The top gainers in the artificial meat sector included Xue Rong Biological, Shandong Heda, and Shuangta Food, while the top losers were Shuanghui Development, Haixin Food, and Jinzi Ham [1][2] - The trading volume for Shuanghui Development was 0.85%, with a significant net outflow of 33.72 million yuan, indicating a lack of investor confidence [2][3] - Other companies in the artificial meat sector, such as Aipu Co. and Dongbao Biological, also reported declines, with Aipu Co. down by 6.55% and Dongbao Biological remaining unchanged [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the plant-based meat industry, particularly focusing on Beyond Meat, which has faced significant revenue drops and operational challenges, leading to a halt in its operations in China and substantial layoffs [2][3][4]. Industry Overview - The plant-based meat sector initially gained momentum following Beyond Meat's successful IPO in 2019, which saw a 163% stock price increase on its first day, marking a significant moment in the industry [3][4]. - The rise of plant-based meat in China was fueled by collaborations with major food chains like KFC and Starbucks, which introduced various plant-based products to the market [8][12]. Market Dynamics - A surge in investment occurred in the plant-based meat sector in China from December 2019 to December 2020, with a reported 500% increase in investment events, accounting for 10% of the food and health product sector [11]. - Despite initial enthusiasm, the market has seen a decline in consumer interest, with many viewing plant-based meat as a novelty rather than a staple, leading to poor sales performance across retail and restaurant channels [4][16]. Consumer Sentiment - Consumer acceptance remains low, with only 32% of consumers in developed cities having tried plant-based meat, indicating a significant gap between awareness and actual consumption [16]. - A survey revealed that 74% of consumers are unwilling to repurchase plant-based meat products after initial trials, reflecting a negative perception of the product's health benefits and taste [17][18]. Challenges Faced - The high production costs and technical challenges in replicating the texture and flavor of real meat have hindered the growth of the plant-based meat industry, with many products failing to meet consumer expectations [17][19]. - Beyond Meat's financial struggles are exacerbated by the complexity and cost of its manufacturing processes, leading to increased losses and a challenging business model [19].