Core Insights - The youth population in Seychelles is declining, raising concerns across various sectors [1] - As of June 30, 2024, the total number of youth aged 15 to 30 is 26,388, representing 22% of the total population, a decrease of 0.5% from 2022 and 9.7% from 1987 [1] - Youth participation in the labor market is low, with only 55.5% of young people employed [1] Industry Breakdown - The public administration, defense, and social security sector employs 18.9% of the youth [1] - The accommodation and food services industry accounts for 15.4% of youth employment [1] - The wholesale, retail, and motor vehicle repair sector employs 10.8% of the youth [1] - The transportation and storage sector employs 10.5% of the youth [1]

Market Performance - US stock market experienced a significant drop after a disappointing services sector report, with the Dow Jones falling approximately 100 points and both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 declining about 0.5% [3][4] - The ISM services index for July showed almost zero growth, raising concerns about stagflation, which is characterized by high inflation and low employment [4][5] Economic Indicators - The ISM services index decreased to 50.1, below all economists' forecasts, indicating a slowdown in the services sector, which constitutes about 70% of the US economy [5] - The employment index fell to 46.4, marking the fourth contraction in five months and reaching one of the lowest levels since the pandemic [5] - The new orders index dropped to 50.3, nearing stagnation levels, reflecting a slowdown in business activity [6] Industry Insights - Despite some sectors like transportation, wholesale trade, and finance showing growth, seven industries contracted, with the accommodation and food services sector experiencing the largest decline [6] - Concerns over tariffs and rising prices were frequently mentioned by survey participants, indicating ongoing challenges for businesses [6] Investor Sentiment - Major Wall Street firms, including Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, are warning investors to prepare for a market pullback due to high stock valuations and deteriorating economic data [8][9] - Predictions suggest that the S&P 500 could see a short-term decline of up to 10% to 15% in the coming weeks to months [9][10] - Historical data indicates that August and September are typically weak months for the S&P 500, with an average decline of 0.7% [10] Market Valuation - The S&P 500's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 76, indicating overbought conditions, as it surpassed the 70 threshold considered as a warning sign [10] - The cost of options to hedge against a 10% decline in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is nearing the highest level since the regional banking crisis in May 2023, reflecting increased concerns about potential market downturns [10]

Group 1 - The number of job vacancies in the US decreased from a revised 7.71 million in May to 7.44 million in June, falling short of economists' expectations of 7.5 million [1][2] - Job vacancies saw a broad decline across various sectors, particularly in accommodation and food services, healthcare, and finance and insurance [2] - The hiring rate dropped to 3.3% in June, the lowest level since November of the previous year, indicating a slowdown in recruitment [2] Group 2 - The ratio of unemployed individuals to job vacancies fell to approximately 1:1 in June, significantly lower than the peak of 2:1 in 2022 [2] - There is a noted decrease in the number of voluntary resignations, suggesting a decline in workers' confidence in the job market [2] - Concerns have been raised by economists regarding the reliability of the job vacancy data due to low survey response rates and frequent data revisions [2]

Economic Growth - Singapore's economy grew by 4.3% year-on-year in Q2, continuing the previous quarter's growth of 4.1% [1] - The preliminary estimate for Singapore's GDP growth in the first half of the year is 4.2% [1] - The Ministry of Trade and Industry warns of significant uncertainty and downside risks to the global economy in the second half of the year due to unresolved U.S. tariff policies [1] Sector Performance - Manufacturing sector grew by 5.5% year-on-year in Q2, up from 4.4% in the previous quarter, driven by expansion in all clusters except chemicals and general manufacturing [1] - Construction sector experienced a 4.9% year-on-year growth in Q2, primarily due to increased public sector construction output [1] - Service sector grew by 4.1% year-on-year in Q2, higher than the 3.7% growth in Q1, with wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and warehousing sectors growing by 4.8% [2] Service Sector Details - Growth in transportation and warehousing was mainly driven by the maritime sector, while wholesale and retail trade growth was led by machinery, equipment, and supplies [2] - The overall growth of wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and warehousing increased from 0.8% in Q1 to 2.7% in Q2 after seasonal adjustment [2] - Information and communication, finance and insurance, and professional services sectors grew by 3.8% year-on-year in Q2, maintaining the previous quarter's growth rate [2] Government Initiatives - The Singapore government is actively promoting economic diversification by supporting emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and biomedicine [3] - Employment training and retraining programs are being provided to help the workforce adapt to economic transformation needs [3] - The Monetary Authority of Singapore is flexibly adjusting monetary policy to balance economic growth and inflation control [3] Future Outlook - Singapore aims to strengthen economic cooperation with other countries and regions while promoting regional economic integration [4] - The government is committed to structural adjustments and upgrades to enhance economic competitiveness and resilience [4] - Continued investment in innovation and R&D is planned, focusing on digital and green economy development towards sustainable growth [4]