近日，天安财产保险股份有限公司(以下简称天安财险)发布公告显示，公司2015年资本补充债券(以下简称15天安财险债)应于2025年9月30日到期兑付，本 期债券预计无法还本付息。 预计无法还本付息的原因是，截至2025年9月30日，公司不能确保在偿付本期债券本息后的偿付能力充足率不低于100%且有能力清偿其他负债的本金和利 息。 根据天安财险披露的数据，公司自2020年二季度以来已暂停披露季度偿付能力报告。截至2019年四季度末，公司核心及综合偿付能力充足率分别为 185.59%及236.99%。 国信证券经济研究所金融团队认为，天安财险债券违约不仅是长期积累的风险暴露，同时也反映了中国金融市场打破刚性兑付、推进风险定价市场化的趋 势。作为保险业首例债券违约案例，其将成为中国金融市场风险教育与定价机制完善的重要一环。 首例保险债券违约 后续如何处置？ 据悉，天安财险在2015年9月29日发行规模为53亿元、期限为10年期的"15天安财险债"，其票面利率采用分段式计息方式，前5年的票面利率为5.97%，若 发行人在第5年末不行使赎回权，后5年的票面利率为原前5个计息年度票面利率加100个基点(1%)，即6.97 ...

最近总有人跟我吐槽，说手里的钱像烫手山芋，之前买的理财到期了，找遍银行也没见着6%收益的产 品； 老家那套房子挂了半年，中介说能保本卖出去就不错了；把钱存银行吧，一年1.5%的利息，连孩子奶 粉涨价都跟不上。 其实不是钱难赚了，是咱们以前靠的那些老办法，现在不管用了。 年轻人口增速慢了，刚需只会往有产业、有人口流入的城市挤，三四线非核心地段的房子，不仅价格 跌，连接盘的人都少。 说实话，还抱着买房稳赚的想法，其实是把过去的运气，当成了未来的本事。 再说说理财，为啥收益掉这么多？以前8%收益的理财随处可见，现在大多只剩2%左右。 核心原因是那些高收益产品的底层资产，以前多是房地产和地方城投项目，现在这些领域流动性紧张， 收益自然下来了。 更重要的是，资管新规打破了刚性兑付，以前买理财只看收益率就行，现在得看合同里写的是债券、股 票还是非标资产。 先说说大家最执念的房子。你们有没有发现，现在不是所有房子都难卖，我一个朋友在上海核心区有套 老破小，挂出去不到两周就成交了，但另一个朋友在三线城市买的公寓，挂了快一年还没人问。 自2021年下半年房地产开始深度调整，到现在四年多了，早就不是买套房就能躺赚的时代了。 还有 ...

近日，天安财产保险股份有限公司（以下简称天安财险）发布公告显示，公司2015年资本补充债券（以下简称15天安财险债）应于2025年9月30日到期兑 付，本期债券预计无法还本付息。 预计无法还本付息的原因是，截至2025年9月30日，公司不能确保在偿付本期债券本息后的偿付能力充足率不低于100%且有能力清偿其他负债的本金和利 息。 根据天安财险披露的数据，公司自2020年二季度以来已暂停披露季度偿付能力报告。截至2019年四季度末，公司核心及综合偿付能力充足率分别为185.59% 及236.99%。 国信证券经济研究所金融团队认为，天安财险债券违约不仅是长期积累的风险暴露，同时也反映了中国金融市场打破刚性兑付、推进风险定价市场化的趋 势。作为保险业首例债券违约案例，其将成为中国金融市场风险教育与定价机制完善的重要一环。 首例保险债券违约，后续如何处置？ 天安财险在公告中称，截至2025年9月30日，公司不能确保在偿付本期债券本息后的偿付能力充足率不低于100%且有能力清偿其他负债的本金和利息，因此 公司无法向本期债券持有人就本期债券还本付息。 天安财险公告指出，公司已与本期债券的债券持有人开展积极沟通,全力配合 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月09日 天安财险债券风险状况点评 尾部中小险企风险出清加速 行业研究·行业快评 非银金融·保险Ⅱ 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 孔祥 021-60375452 kongxiang@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523060004 证券分析师： 王京灵 0755-22941150 wangjingling@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980525070007 事项： 2025 年 9 月 30 日，"明天系"旗下保险公司天安财险发布《关于 2015 年资本补充债券无法按期兑付的公 告》（以下简称"《公告》"），其"15 天安财险"53 亿元资本补充债在当日到期，因偿付能力不足， 预计无法还本付息，成为保险业首只违约的债券。 国信非银观点：天安财险债券违约不仅是长期积累的风险暴露，同时也反映了中国金融市场打破刚性兑付、 推进风险定价市场化的趋势。作为保险业首例债券违约案例，其将成为中国金融市场风险教育与定价机制 完善的重要一环。在债券投资方面，投资者应在关注收益的同时，关注金融机构的公司治理、股权结构和 风险控制能力，对于尾部风险较高的 ...

Group 1 - The overall trend in the real estate market is stabilizing, but opinions vary on the timeline for recovery, with some predicting a rebound this year and others suggesting it may take three to five years [1] - Economist Zhu Ning predicts a potential decline in housing prices by 20%-30% by early 2024, despite recent stabilization due to policy support, as the market has entered a downward trend again [3][5] - Long-term factors such as demographic shifts, slowing urbanization, and changing attitudes among young people are driving a deep adjustment in the real estate market, shifting the perception of housing from an investment to a consumer good [3][6] Group 2 - Zhu Ning's previous warnings about the real estate market, particularly regarding the "implicit guarantee" that inflated housing prices, have gained attention as the market dynamics shift [5] - The notion of "housing as a necessity" is challenged, with the argument that effective demand is more relevant than the concept of "just demand," emphasizing the need for housing to meet actual living requirements rather than being viewed as an investment [6][8] - The expectation that buying a home guarantees wealth accumulation has reversed, leading to a new focus on selling homes rather than buying, which is crucial for stabilizing the market [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the risks associated with the investment practices of Yongkun Gold, highlighting the company's high promised returns and the subsequent inability of investors to withdraw their funds, indicating potential fraudulent activities [2][3][24]. Group 1: Investment Practices - Yongkun Gold attracted investors by offering annualized returns between 5% and 9% through gold storage and repurchase contracts [4][6]. - The company established a customer tiered return system, with higher returns for larger investments, promising returns that exceed typical gold investment yields [6][9]. - The online platform offered a "pre-order gold bar" product, which appeared to guarantee returns, allowing investors to either withdraw their principal or benefit from price increases [10][11]. Group 2: Financial Scale and Operations - Yongkun Gold has reportedly raised over 3.6 billion yuan through its pre-order gold bar sales, indicating a significant scale of operations [16]. - The company claims to have insured gold stored in a bank vault, with an insurance amount of approximately 857 million yuan and a total gold value exceeding 4.1 billion yuan [20][19]. Group 3: Regulatory and Legal Concerns - Yongkun Gold lacks the necessary qualifications to operate gold asset management services, which raises concerns about the legality of its investment practices [25][26]. - The company has been listed as operating abnormally by local authorities, indicating potential regulatory violations [25]. - Legal experts suggest that the company's practices may constitute illegal fundraising or disguised collective investment schemes, posing significant risks to investors [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - Recent reports indicate that some elderly individuals have fallen victim to fraudulent "guaranteed return" investment products promoted by online "investment masters," leading to significant financial losses. The concept of "guaranteed return" in bank wealth management products is a product of specific historical stages in China's financial market, driven by investor demand for "risk-free returns," competitive pressure among banks, and previously lax regulations [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The introduction of the "Guiding Opinions on Regulating Financial Institutions' Asset Management Business" (referred to as "Asset Management New Regulations") in 2018 marked a significant shift in the market, requiring the dismantling of rigid guarantees and the implementation of net value management [1]. - The "Asset Management New Regulations" explicitly state that financial institutions are prohibited from promising capital protection and returns in their asset management activities [1]. - The "Measures for the Administration of Wealth Management Subsidiaries of Commercial Banks" also emphasizes that wealth management products cannot guarantee returns or engage in misleading promotions such as "risk-free profits" [1]. Group 2: Investor Awareness and Risk - Investors must recognize that there are significant differences in risk and return between wealth management products and traditional deposits, with the latter typically offering capital protection and guaranteed returns [2]. - It is crucial for investors to consider their investment experience, risk tolerance, and return expectations when selecting wealth management products to better balance asset safety and value appreciation [2]. - Consumers are advised to be cautious of "high return, no risk" promotional claims and to avoid being misled by short-term high returns. Continuous attention to educational content from financial regulatory bodies and banks is recommended to enhance risk identification and fraud prevention capabilities [2].