Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in prices for photovoltaic and lithium battery products, driven by anti-involution policies, bringing them back to levels seen in the same period of 2024 [1][5] - Manufacturing PMI for July 2025 shows a decline to 49.3%, indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector, while non-manufacturing PMI remains above the threshold but shows marginal slowdown [2][9] Industry Analysis - **Manufacturing Sector**: The manufacturing sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with production still expanding despite a decline in PMI. The overall manufacturing PMI is at 49.3%, down from 49.7% in June [2][9] - **High-frequency Indicators**: Various industrial sectors show differing trends; sectors like non-ferrous metals and machinery are performing well, while pharmaceuticals and textiles are under pressure [3][4] - **Consumer Confidence**: There is a recovery in consumer confidence, but retail sales are expected to slow down due to the end of promotional seasons and transitional phases in government subsidies [4][5] - **Advanced Manufacturing**: The photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors are seeing price recovery due to regulatory measures against chaotic competition, although demand-side constraints remain [5] - **Technology Sector**: The export of optical communication modules has decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, while storage prices are rising due to supply constraints [5] - **Financial Sector**: Insurance premium income has increased by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a recovery in the financial market [5] - **Real Estate Sector**: Real estate investment and sales are slowing down, with a notable decline in new housing starts and construction activities [5] - **Energy Sector**: Coal and steel prices have seen a spike due to high demand and regulatory measures, while oil prices are stabilizing amid improved economic expectations [5] - **Chemical Industry**: The PPI for industrial products has decreased, with significant declines in the chemical sector, indicating ongoing challenges [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the lithium battery and certain cyclical sectors, with prices recovering to levels seen in the same period of 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for July 2025 shows a slight decline to 49.3%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, while non-manufacturing sectors remain above the threshold but show marginal slowdown [2][9]. - The report highlights a recovery in prices for raw materials and finished goods, driven by anti-involution policies aimed at improving market conditions [5]. - Various industrial sectors are experiencing different levels of growth, with high-performing sectors including non-ferrous metals and machinery, while pharmaceuticals and textiles face challenges [4][5]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector's PMI has decreased, reflecting a contraction in production and new orders, with the production index at 50.5 and new orders at 49.4 [9]. - The consumer confidence index has shown a positive year-on-year recovery, although retail sales growth is expected to slow down in the coming months [4]. High-Frequency Indicators - Revenue, industrial added value, and PPI growth rates are analyzed across various sectors, with non-ferrous metals and machinery showing high growth, while pharmaceuticals and textiles are underperforming [4][7]. - The supply side indicates low growth in finished goods inventory and a decrease in fixed asset investment growth, suggesting reduced long-term supply pressure in certain sectors [4][8]. Advanced Manufacturing - The report notes that anti-involution measures have led to price recovery in the photovoltaic and lithium battery supply chains, although demand-side constraints remain [5]. - The machinery sector is experiencing stable growth in excavator and heavy truck sales, while new shipbuilding prices and orders have turned negative [5]. Financial Sector - Insurance premium income has increased by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a positive outlook for the second half as interest rates are expected to decline [5]. Real Estate and Construction - Real estate investment and sales continue to slow, with a notable decline in cement prices, while building materials and home retail sales are accelerating [5]. - The report highlights a decrease in new construction starts and ongoing projects, impacting construction investment [5]. Energy and Commodities - The report discusses the impact of high temperatures on coal and steel prices, with a recovery in oil prices driven by improved economic resilience [5]. - The prices of industrial metals are influenced by U.S. economic conditions and tariff expectations, with copper prices experiencing volatility [5].