养殖ETF（159865）跟踪的是中证畜牧指数（930707），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及畜禽养殖、饲料 加工及动物保健等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映畜牧养殖产业链相关上市公司证券的整体 表现。成分股覆盖了从上游饲料生产到下游养殖的全产业链企业。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 天风证券指出，生猪板块在行业亏损和政策引导下，后续产能有望持续去化，当前估值处于历史相对底 部区间。黄鸡方面，随着消费季节性提升，价格或已筑底完成，叠加行业亏损导致投苗意愿受限，供给 端可能进一步收缩，支撑未来价格弹性。蛋鸡行业受海外禽流感封关影响，2025年国内引种量同比大幅 收缩，预计后续供给将由松转紧，龙头企业凭借高市占率有望释放业绩弹性。肉牛方面，前期深度去化 推动价格步入上行通道，叠加进口监管趋严，国产牛肉价格涨幅可能超预期。水产养殖/饲料行业经历 低谷后，中小企业退出显著，养殖利润同比改善，预计明年多品种水产料景气延续。饲料企业在原材料 波动下通过套保和研发优势加速市占率提升，并成功拓展海外市场。动保板块中，传统畜禽疫苗竞争激 烈，宠物动保市场随老龄化扩容，国产大单品推动替代进程。 ...

Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is currently facing losses for both fat and piglet sales, indicating conditions for capacity reduction. The industry is expected to accelerate capacity reduction, presenting a left-side layout opportunity for the pig farming sector. A price turning point is anticipated in mid-2026 [16][20][34] - Major pig farming companies recommended include Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, with attention to Dekang Agriculture and New Hope. Companies with potential for operational turnaround include Zhengbang Technology, while smaller farming enterprises to watch include Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Tangrenshen [16][34] Pig Industry Analysis - In 2025, the pig price fell below the cost line, leading to overall industry losses. By November, the average loss per self-breeding pig was 122 CNY per head, with an estimated annual profit of 30-80 CNY per head [20][23] - The industry is experiencing a significant reduction in breeding sow inventory, with a decrease to 39.9 million heads by October 2025, down 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [28][36] Dairy Industry Analysis - The raw milk price continued to decline in 2025, leading to a reduction in dairy cow inventory. As the supply-demand balance improves, raw milk prices are expected to rise in 2026-2027 [16][18] - The beef supply is also entering a contraction phase, with expectations for beef prices to rise in 2026, enhancing the performance elasticity of livestock companies [16][18] Feed Industry Analysis - The feed sector is expected to see stable water aquaculture production in 2026, while demand for livestock feed is projected to decline due to reduced breeding capacity. Domestic feed leaders are positioned to benefit from overseas expansion opportunities [17][18] - The global feed industry is undergoing structural changes, providing opportunities for Chinese feed companies to expand internationally [17] Animal Health Industry Analysis - The animal health sector faces intensified competition, with traditional vaccine product margins declining. Companies are shifting towards multi-business models, including pet health products, to open new growth avenues [17][18] Pet Food Industry Analysis - The pet food market is showing signs of consolidation, with leading companies like Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Co. performing well. The long-term growth logic for the industry remains strong, supported by the rise of domestic brands [17][18] - Companies are also expanding their global production capabilities to mitigate trade friction impacts [17] Crop Industry Analysis - Corn prices are expected to rebound in 2025, with a potential strong performance in 2026. The seed industry is currently in a phase of inventory reduction, with opportunities arising from transgenic innovations and industry consolidation [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector showed strong performance on October 10, with the first agricultural ETF (159275) experiencing a price increase after a low opening, indicating positive market sentiment in this sector [1][5]. Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) opened lower but quickly rebounded, achieving a maximum intraday increase of 1.5% and closing up 0.3% [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Guannong Co. (up 6.89%) and Shengwu Co. (up 4.52%), led the gains, with several others also showing increases of over 3% [1][5]. Price Trends - National average pig prices fell to 12.55 CNY/kg as of October 7, a decrease of 1.6% compared to the pre-holiday period, following a 10% drop in September [2][3]. - The decline in pig prices has resulted in significant losses for farmers, with losses of 54 CNY per pig for self-bred pigs and 128 CNY for purchased piglets [2][3]. Policy and Industry Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with the Ministry of Agriculture, has signaled a clear policy direction towards reducing production capacity in the pig industry, which is expected to enhance market dynamics [3][4]. - The current low valuation of the agricultural sector, with the agricultural ETF's price-to-book ratio at 2.61, suggests a favorable time for investment [3][4]. Future Expectations - Analysts predict that the ongoing measures to counteract overproduction in the pig industry will lead to a gradual increase in pig prices in the medium to long term [4][5]. - The focus on improving quality and efficiency in the pig industry, along with the elimination of outdated production capacity, is expected to benefit financially stable producers [4][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the government's ongoing guidance to the top 30 enterprises to stabilize prices and limit production through measures such as reducing breeding sows, lowering weights, and banning second breeding [1] - The policy aims to stabilize market expectations, reduce speculative operations, and promote supply-demand balance and healthy development in the industry [1] - With the pressure of pig prices on CPI increasing in July and August, and the accumulated supply from previous periods, there is a possibility of further policy intensification to accelerate industry capacity reduction [1] Group 2 - Under the dual influence of policy constraints and market mechanisms, the domestic breeding sow inventory is expected to stabilize after a reduction [1] - Improvements in breeding efficiency, strengthened cost control, and rigid demand from consumers are expected to support the pig farming industry entering a prolonged profit cycle with reduced volatility [1] - The breeding sector may have gradually entered a configuration range, and interested investors are encouraged to pay attention to the marginal changes in the breeding ETF (159865) [1]